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Razors Edge

100,000 And Still Hearing That's It's Really Not So Bad

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...especially since it was/is mostly old folks who were likely to die of something relatively soon anyway.

An interesting spin (not unexpected), and also being tied effortlessly into the "probably overestimated" and the "gotta open things up" stuff I hear.

I wonder what some folks "magic" number is (or was)? Does it really need to be something disastrous and devastating like 1,000,000+?  It seems like when it was in the tens and hundreds, folks were saying 50k or so was bad, but we cruised through that and now 50k seems like it would have been a good place to stop. Is 100k the new 50k?

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It will be if the numbers start going back up again.  At the moment it's been pushed to the back page.

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1 minute ago, maddmaxx said:

It will be if the numbers start going back up again.  At the moment it's been pushed to the back page.

Well, obviously the death numbers will never go down, and will likely, for months (at least) continue to go up.

It will be interesting to see how, as the toll grows over time - 105k, 110k, 115k, 120k, etc. - if it re-seizes the public attention or if the protest marching, the riots, the re-opening, and the natural change to summer living give it far less attention.  I know many folks would love to not have to talk about it anymore.

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Have looked for studies of excess mortality due to covid.   I still want to know on average, how many more people are dying daily than in past years.   

100K is a horrible number, but how many of those 100k would have passed from underlying health conditions?

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2 minutes ago, Razors Edge said:

Well, obviously the death numbers will never go down, and will likely, for months (at least) continue to go up.

It will be interesting to see how, as the toll grows over time - 105k, 110k, 115k, 120k, etc. - if it re-seizes the public attention or if the protest marching, the riots, the re-opening, and the natural change to summer living give it far less attention.  I know many folks would love to not have to talk about it anymore.

True.  Many of them are dead.

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Just now, jsharr said:

Have looked for studies of excess mortality due to covid.   I still want to know on average, how many more people are dying daily than in past years.   

100K is a horrible number, but how many of those 100k would have passed from underlying health conditions?

Like flu?  :humping:

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1 minute ago, jsharr said:

100K is a horrible number, but how many of those 100k would have passed from underlying health conditions?

Given time? All of them.

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1 minute ago, maddmaxx said:

Like flu?  :humping:

Not necessarily.   I would just like to see a graph of historic daily deaths, or deaths per month for a few years pre covid and for the current period.   Surely all 100K deaths cannot be simply due to covid on top of our normal mortality rates can they?

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4 minutes ago, jsharr said:

100K is a horrible number, but how many of those 100k would have passed from underlying health conditions?

You are branded as an uncaring a** for even asking.  You are a troll and a moran for even thinking about asking such a question.

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4 minutes ago, jsharr said:

Surely all 100K deaths cannot be simply due to covid on top of our normal mortality rates can they?

Do you not know when to stop?  You can't ask that question.

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1 minute ago, jsharr said:

Not necessarily.   I would just like to see a graph of historic daily deaths, or deaths per month for a few years pre covid and for the current period.   Surely all 100K deaths cannot be simply due to covid on top of our normal mortality rates can they?

What's interesting is that many folks who WOULD have died - usually in car accidents but also through other accidents related to normal activities - will not have died.  By restricting folks, we've also reduced them dying!

This year will have a VERY interesting profile of "causes of death" for sure.

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1 minute ago, Kzoo said:

Do you not know when to stop?  You can't ask that question.

Maybe I should go down to the lobby and loot the deli?  

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Just now, Razors Edge said:

What's interesting is that many folks who WOULD have died - usually in car accidents but also through other accidents related to normal activities - will not have died.  By restricting folks, we've also reduced them dying!

This year will have a VERY interesting profile of "causes of death" for sure.

excellent point.   

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6 minutes ago, Razors Edge said:

...especially since it was/is mostly old folks who were likely to die of something relatively soon anyway.

An interesting spin (not unexpected), and also being tied effortlessly into the "probably overestimated" and the "gotta open things up" stuff I hear.

I wonder what some folks "magic" number is (or was)? Does it really need to be something disastrous and devastating like 1,000,000+?  It seems like when it was in the tens and hundreds, folks were saying 50k or so was bad, but we cruised through that and now 50k seems like it would have been a good place to stop. Is 100k the new 50k?

Back in April I posted a question asking how much death is acceptable to keep the economy going at the optimum level.

People don't want to answer that while pretending things are getting better.  Personally, I think - and I mean think based on data and statements from the top researchers my sister works with at Johns Hopkins Hospital - that we'll have a pretty good July, August, and maybe September because of seasonality - but that we'll get whacked hard again beginning in October because the Federal Government won't lead the way and do the things other countries are doing now to keep numbers low - like Australia housing their C19 victims in hotels solely for them, keeping them isolated because they know a lot of people won't "self-quarantine."

Of course, I also estimated in April that, based on SARS-2002's record in 2003, there would be few cases after June 1.  The number of deaths looks, according to the graph pattern, like it could fall to the low-hundreds per day or less sometime in June or July, but the number of cases is growing, perhaps thanks to opening things up (necessary to some extant) and Memorial Day Weekend (idiocy):

Deaths are going downhill in a sinusoidal pattern while Brazil, now in it's Fall, is going up sinusoidally:

image.png.d4f97a09dc10e52728732ce1d4436d45.png

U.S. cases have stopped dropping, though that may be due to more tests of asymptomatic people:

image.thumb.png.f9583995d18291a93c9ec458fd3de3c6.png

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8 minutes ago, jsharr said:

Not necessarily.   I would just like to see a graph of historic daily deaths, or deaths per month for a few years pre covid and for the current period.   Surely all 100K deaths cannot be simply due to covid on top of our normal mortality rates can they?

In the short term yes.  In the long term the death rate is always the same.  We all die.

It's not a strong argument against covid not being a disaster in terms of infection rate, deaths and long term damage done even to the young.

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2 hours ago, jsharr said:

Have looked for studies of excess mortality due to covid.   I still want to know on average, how many more people are dying daily than in past years.   

100K is a horrible number, but how many of those 100k would have passed from underlying health conditions?

It's an interesting question and maybe it will be sorted out and answered when the dust settles.

Here are some ways to think about this. 100k deaths in 2-3 months from one cause. That's pretty rapid and alarming.

A friend of mine has lost three family members. Two were cousins in their 40s, one was an uncle. He said they weren't the healthiest people. Think overweight type II diabetes. Would an overweight person in their 40s have died otherwise? I doubt it. We can treat these issues with medication.

When have we ever seen hospitals park refrigerated trailers outside to stack the bodies because the morgues were full?

I heard a story on NPR this weekend about a funeral director. He has stopped answering his phone because he ran out of room to store the bodies.

 Another thing to consider is the people who have survived. It's possible the lung damage will cause long term health problems.

 

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2 hours ago, Razors Edge said:

I know many folks would love to not have to talk about it anymore.

boiling the frog.

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2 hours ago, jsharr said:

 Surely all 100K deaths cannot be simply due to covid on top of our normal mortality rates can they?

What's interesting (and pretty much how live pandemic counting goes) is that per capita deaths are more than 100K above average.  And not just in the US.

Pandemics are always undercounted during the pandemic. It's near impossible to count them all, we don't even see them all.  It's only when we can go back and see things like  400% increase in pneumonia deaths were actually brought on by the virus that we get the full picture.

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9 minutes ago, 12string said:

What's interesting (and pretty much how live pandemic counting goes) is that per capita deaths are more than 100K above average.  And not just in the US.

Pandemics are always undercounted during the pandemic. It's near impossible to count them all, we don't even see them all.  It's only when we can go back and see things like  400% increase in pneumonia deaths were actually brought on by the virus that we get the full picture.

Isn't it an old joke that ALL deaths are attributed to one thing - lack of oxygen to the brain?  If the brains still working, you're still alive?

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2 hours ago, 12string said:

Pandemics are always undercounted during the pandemic.

It will probably take a year to determine what the actual elevation of deaths was above expected.

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2 minutes ago, Prophet Zacharia said:

It will probably take a year to determine what the actual elevation of deaths was above expected.

You must have faith in the folks doing the counting are still using the same sort of methodology.  We know how easy a fake message gets amplified these days, and you can be some folks will see an advantage to reporting something far from accurate.

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1 minute ago, Razors Edge said:

You must have faith in the folks doing the counting are still using the same sort of methodology.  We know how easy a fake message gets amplified these days, and you can be some folks will see an advantage to reporting something far from accurate.

I guess we’d have to fund the CDC again.

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