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I don't think this fall will be so bad from a health perspective


Randomguy
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I have been seeing warnings about the flu and covid and PRI taking down the majority of all mammals and fishies this fall, but I am thinking maybe otherwise.  Maybe we will all be wearing masks (finally) to tamp down coronavirus, and the masks will also serve to help with the flu.  Now, I am not a doctor, but maybe?  Could just be wishes, too.

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I would agree.  If we weren't still being told not to wear masks by certain factions.  Look at Sturgis.  They're soon going to leave that petri dish and spread around the country.  Look at the schools.  Oops, who could have imagined all the kids getting sick and bringing it home?

Nope, we're headed for much worse if we don't do a real lockdown, like, this week.  Like we should have in March, and we could have been back in restaurants by now.

NJ has an R below 1 right now.  That's incredible, considering what's going on around us.  I feel less worried about being in public.  When that number goes back up, I'll be back in the house.

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35 minutes ago, 12string said:

NJ has an R below 1 right now.  That's incredible, considering what's going on around us.

Every state had a Rt value at 1.00 or below as of yesterday.  Many of the hardest hit states (in the south) have Rt values in the 0.90 range.

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I was wondering the same. Yeah there will be pockets of spread but I think with many, if not the majority of people practicing social distancing. WFH, wearing masks & hand cleaning will we have much of a flu season?  I’m thinking it will be a mild season.

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30 minutes ago, maddmaxx said:

Just wait till school starts.

Between high school kids and college kids you ain't seen nothin yet.

Throw in the upcoming Labor Day holidays and the sky is the limit.

I have that much faith in my fellow man.

Hmm, good point on the holidays stuck inside with family.  Maybe everybody stays home?  College kids are gonna bang, too, if they go back to class.

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1 hour ago, Randomguy said:

I have been seeing warnings about the flu and covid and PRI taking down the majority of all mammals and fishies this fall, but I am thinking maybe otherwise.  Maybe we will all be wearing masks (finally) to tamp down coronavirus, and the masks will also serve to help with the flu.  Now, I am not a doctor, but maybe?  Could just be wishes, too.

If we were all wearing masks and social distancing I think the Fall could be excellent.

But my sister, who almost died twice from COVID-19 in the Spring and is probably immune now, paints a dreary picture. She is retiring as a 6-figure-paid Senior Clinical Master Nurse from Johns Hopkins Hospital on Sept. 1 at age 61 because she doesn't want to be there in the Fall because the research doctors at Hopkins expect the USA to get whacked hard from flu plus coronavirus.  She expects too many Americans to continue to behave in a low-character way that promotes COVID-19 and there will be a tremendous problem differentiating the flu from COVID-19 initially and hospitals will be flooded.

She says when she drives through Baltimore during rush hour, to and from work, 9 out of every 10 people on the crowded sidewalks are not wearing masks or have them around their necks and are not social distancing.

In the South, we're hearing of COVID Parties where people intentionally go without masks and are hugging.  Meanwhile, we have a Georgia Governor who sued a city for requiring masks!  We have other governors of hard-hit states that won't require masks despite hospitals running out of room, backlogged funeral homes and cities renting refrigerated trucks to hold the dead. We have the Lt. Governor of Texas saying, "We don't need advice from Dr. Fauci."  How's that going to affect many Texans?

My sister agreed with me when I said I think the USA won't end the pandemic until a vaccine or an antibody treatment is widespread, because too many in our country don't have the character or understanding of patriotism involving the welfare of your fellow people that people in Australia, Germany, etc. do and where the daily case and death rate is a very tiny fraction of ours.

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6 minutes ago, Kzoo said:

We just had our highest number of daily cased reported since mid May.  Why? many more tests.  The % positive stayed the same but the number of test was a lot higher.

If the positive % stays the same, across more testing, is that indicative of an improvement or a pervasiveness in society?  I'd hope more testing would mean a lower % positive as you are expanding into the seemingly "healthy" populace and away from the simply visibly sick group?

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2 minutes ago, Razors Edge said:

If the positive % stays the same, across more testing, is that indicative of an improvement or a pervasiveness in society?  I'd hope more testing would mean a lower % positive as you are expanding into the seemingly "healthy" populace and away from the simply visibly sick group?

Not if your testing is a true cross section of the population.

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5 minutes ago, Kzoo said:

Not if your testing is a true cross section of the population.

The holy grail!  How's that going where you are?  I still need a reason to get tested :(

But that seems to be the goal, correct? Beyond even just a "cross-section".  Get everyone tested, set a baseline, keep testing, see where you are, adjust accordingly, open what you can, close what you must, and move forward.  I'd love that process - especially in a quick testing turn-around (a few minutes?).

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14 minutes ago, Razors Edge said:

How's that going where you are?

I'm not sure other than the number of tests given continues to go up.  In reporting from the previous 24 hour period it went up by 33% in one day.  I have not heard the reason for the increase.  I have not tracked testing, what you need to be given a test.  We had an employee that went to NJ for family business and a client required him to stay away for 14 days, pass a test and submit the results to them.  Other than that I really don't know or talk to people that are getting tested.

I know there are lots of places to get tested and the county health departments can conduct their own tests.  We had some counties where the Health Director targeted high rate areas (nursing homes/ homeless shelters) and other counties that did not.  That skewed percent positive numbers by county.

 

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11 minutes ago, Kzoo said:

I'm not sure other than the number of tests given continues to go up.  In reporting from the previous 24 hour period it went up by 33% in one day.  I have not heard the reason for the increase.  I have not tracked testing, what you need to be given a test.  We had an employee that went to NJ for family business and a client required him to stay away for 14 days, pass a test and submit the results to them.  Other than that I really don't know or talk to people that are getting tested.

I know there are lots of places to get tested and the county health departments can conduct their own tests.  We had some counties where the Health Director targeted high rate areas (nursing homes/ homeless shelters) and other counties that did not.  That skewed percent positive numbers by county.

 

So, it seems, like us, you're still in a "test the most likely and not in a true cross-section or full population" testing rate yet.  I'd seriously hope that the testing goes way up, and the % positive goes way down (and hopefully at a greater rate than the testing increase rate). My hope would be that as you get into the full population, most folks are not positive, and COVID is relatively contained.

I still think deaths is the better (awful, tragic) statistic, but 1) it lags by weeks and 2) as treatment improves, it is less valuable as a historic comparison so can't fully judge our progress.

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5 minutes ago, Razors Edge said:

I still think deaths is the better (awful, tragic) statistic, but 1) it lags by weeks and 2) as treatment improves, it is less valuable as a historic comparison so can't fully judge our progress.

It's not a better stat based on what you said but it is a tragic end result that needs tracked.  The Rt factor is the goto number epidemiologists look at (from what I can tell).  Our number of deaths reported per 24 hour period is way down.  Better treatment...

 

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1 minute ago, Kzoo said:

It's not a better stat based on what you said but it is a tragic end result that needs tracked.  The Rt factor is the goto number epidemiologists look at (from what I can tell).  Our number of deaths reported per 24 hour period is way down.  Better treatment...

Yes and no.  You will know, in two weeks or so if you made the right changes this week.  If your death numbers start going up, and not going down, that's a sign some mistakes were made and may still be being made.  The better treatment is thankfully helping folks survive.  Now let's hope we get them to survive AND can prevent long-term disabilities.  We can, I assume, but will we? And how quickly?

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3 hours ago, maddmaxx said:

Just wait till school starts.

Between high school kids and college kids you ain't seen nothin yet.

Throw in the upcoming Labor Day holidays and the sky is the limit.

I have that much faith in my fellow man.

I'm with you, Max.  This shit's going to go bonkers.

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25 minutes ago, Square Wheels said:

Those days are over.  Ran out of money.  First couple were great, last years was not as well attended as I hoped.

Well, I think next year (after this year's 12string pool flooded yard party) will be an important chance for us all to rekindle and restart the tradition! I'll donate $5 CAnadian.

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1 hour ago, Kzoo said:

I'm not sure other than the number of tests given continues to go up.  In reporting from the previous 24 hour period it went up by 33% in one day.  I have not heard the reason for the increase.  I have not tracked testing, what you need to be given a test.  We had an employee that went to NJ for family business and a client required him to stay away for 14 days, pass a test and submit the results to them.  Other than that I really don't know or talk to people that are getting tested.

I know there are lots of places to get tested and the county health departments can conduct their own tests.  We had some counties where the Health Director targeted high rate areas (nursing homes/ homeless shelters) and other counties that did not.  That skewed percent positive numbers by county.

 

What percentage of the nations population have had even their first test?

 

1 hour ago, Kzoo said:

I'm not sure other than the number of tests given continues to go up.  In reporting from the previous 24 hour period it went up by 33% in one day.  I have not heard the reason for the increase.  I have not tracked testing, what you need to be given a test.  We had an employee that went to NJ for family business and a client required him to stay away for 14 days, pass a test and submit the results to them.  Other than that I really don't know or talk to people that are getting tested.

I know there are lots of places to get tested and the county health departments can conduct their own tests.  We had some counties where the Health Director targeted high rate areas (nursing homes/ homeless shelters) and other counties that did not.  That skewed percent positive numbers by county.

 

Michigan had only done about 2 and a quarter million tests total.  What's your population?  https://www.politico.com/interactives/2020/coronavirus-testing-by-state-chart-of-new-cases/

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30 minutes ago, maddmaxx said:

What percentage of the nations population have had even their first test?

 

Michigan had only done about 2 and a quarter million tests total.  What's your population?  https://www.politico.com/interactives/2020/coronavirus-testing-by-state-chart-of-new-cases/

9.98 million 

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If you get covid and recover, you are most likely going to be scarred for life.  To focus on death may not be a 'grave' mistake but it would be incorrect to do so.  If you one to think that if I don't die from it -- you'll be ok -- guess again.

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20 minutes ago, Kzoo said:

9.98 million 

Given that many tests are repeat tests for those who have already contracted covid or others who for some reason are special enough to get tested often then the number of tests given doesn't mean all that much,

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I got tested today at work. Not sure when the results will be available, or even how. I would like to see results for the whole plant but I don't think they will share that information.

They are serious about get tested or get out, I know of at least one person layed off for refusing to take the test.

The Hooples are putting down false names on the registration....to protect their privacy you know....

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