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So, CA is gonna ban sale of petrol cars in 15 years


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Supposedly.

 

California vows to ban sale of new petrol vehicles in 2035

US West Coast state to join 15 nations that have set similar goals in order to fight climate change.

23 Sep 2020
 

California plans to ban the sale of new gasoline-powered passenger cars and trucks starting in 2035 in a dramatic move to shift to electric vehicles and reduce greenhouse gas emissions, Governor Gavin Newsom has said.

Newsom told a press conference on Wednesday that the most populous state in the United States was committing to a “firm goal” to phase out the sale of new gasoline-powered vehicles by 2035 and was encouraging other states to take similar action.

Newsom’s order labelled the elimination of gasoline-powered vehicles a “goal” and a “target” after his office said earlier that his order would require the sale of nothing but zero-emission passenger vehicles starting in 2035.

The move would be the most significant to date by a US state aimed at ending the use of internal combustion engines for passenger travel.

California is the largest US auto market, accounting for about 11 percent of all US vehicle sales, and many states choose to adopt its green vehicle mandates.

Newsom also wants the state legislature to stop issuing new permits by 2024 that allow the use of hydraulic fracturing technology for oil and gas drilling.

US President Donald Trump has sought to bar California from requiring the sale of electric vehicles, while his rival Joe Biden has pledged to spend billions to speed the adoption of electric vehicles.

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My only question is "Where is the extra required electricity going to come from?"  Solar and wind are not there yet efficiency-wise and I dont know about Cali but here the only way we have enough electricity to get us through is by 'stockpiling' it during quiet times like the middle of the night, which will no longer be quiet when umpteen million cars are charging.

I love the idea, the execution worries me

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2 minutes ago, shootingstar said:

Hmm, there had better be the infrastructure, etc.

I don't think self-driving cars on open highways/roads will happen for a longer while. But will happen more frequently in restricted property areas.

Electric cars are very common in CA and I really don’t see an issue with building/expanding the infrastructure. Many office complexes including mine and shopping centers have charging stations.  

Im fine with it.  CA has a car culture but we tend to embrace electric/hybrid cars.

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2 minutes ago, Zephyr said:

My only question is "Where is the extra required electricity going to come from?"  Solar and wind are not there yet efficiency-wise and I dont know about Cali but here the only way we have enough electricity to get us through is by 'stockpiling' it during quiet times like the middle of the night, which will no longer be quiet when umpteen million cars are charging.

I love the idea, the execution worries me

Oh maybe that’s what SS was referring to with infrastructure. Yeah solar & wind power is a thing here but we would probably need to expand on it.

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18 minutes ago, Zephyr said:

"Where is the extra required electricity going to come from?" 

Ah, if there is a mandated market, some genius or other will come up with a great and workable and practical idea, then government or corporate greed will water it down so it is just barely better than the one it is replacing.

Anyway, there is permahaze all over CA, gotta do something about the non-real hoaxy piss-poor air quality, right?

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...I have owned and driven a LEAF here in California since 2011.  There are already a lot of electric cars on the roads here, because a lot of people bought them  for the perks, like a rush hour car pool lane free pass, even if it's just you, and some kind of stuff early on like tax credits and free parking in the city garages here.

 

With regard to capacity.  With tiered pricing, my current electric utility encourages charging your car at off peak hours. Peak capacity generation is what really drives up the costs on an electrical system.  And I have watched my electric meter spinning when only the AC compressor is on, and when only the car is charging (at night). It spins faster when the house AC kicks on, relative to the car in direct comparison.

 

The only reason they are not more widely bought and used here is range anxiety. There is a new generation of these cars that is addressing this issue.

 

Sadly, California can lead the nation and the world in greenhouse gas emissions, and we're still fucked. The way one guy put it yesterday was not to look at this as the hottest August on record for California and the Bay Area by 20th Century standards. Rather we ought to see it as one of the coolest on record for the coming 21st Century.  So it matters not very much that I've been driving a zero emissions car for almost ten years now. I'm breathing the same smoke as everyone else.  That's why the Whole Earth people used to call it spaceship earth. :(

 

 

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I got torched on the Miata forum when I said I'd buy an electric Miata.  ;)

I think the electric cars are getting better and they will eventually be a thing. No matter how much the rich oil oligarchs resist it. 

On another note, I watched a new Jaguar I-Pace all electric sparing with a BMW X6 M twin turbo yesterday. My car will only do zero to 60 in 7 seconds, so they both left me in the dust. But I did see the electric Jag eat the 600 plus horsepower BMW for lunch. And I could get by with it's 234 mile range. $70,000 is too rich for my budget though. :rolleyes:

 

I-Pace

I Pace.jpg

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1 hour ago, bikeman564™ said:

good question considering there isn't sufficient tricity there now

15 years is a long time, plus you know there will be problems that will move the timeline to 20 years.  The long distance road-trip driving thing will make or break the whole thing, I can't see driving 300 miles then charging for a couple of hours and repeating that cycle.  I once drove 21 hours straight myself, stopping only to get gas and food.  I don't know how this will be possible without some sort of miracle charge or quick -loading interchangeable battery packs, which I haven't seen discussed in regards to electric cars yet.

The air is crap in CA, though, you have to do something about it.   Many consumers are not wanting to change at this point for practical purposes, so there has to be a push or a pull to make it happen.

I wonder if I will be alive to see it all go down?

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I sold all my oil company stocks (Exxon, Conoco, Phillip's 66) by the end of 2014 because I expected hybrid and electric vehicles to greatly reduce oil consumption on top of oil becoming ever more costly to pump from the Arctic Ocean, etc.

Once there's a strong nationwide network of electric vehicle fast-charging and servicing stations, the big car companies and their engineering and financial muscle are going to push companies like Tesla into a niche corner and dominate the market and all-gas engine cars will go the way of the horse and buggy. Look at how fast GM came up with the Chevy Volt: short lived but had a greater range than Tesla.  Note that Tesla relies on the same Li Ion Batteries that have been used by Toyota, etc. for a generation, 100 year-old electric motor technology, shocks and plastics and aluminum and lights and etc. that other car manufacturers have been using all along, and software that Google, Apple, etc. have demonstrated is easily duplicated.  Tesla doesn't have any technological durable competitive advantage.  Even Microsoft and some car company are going in together on a battery plant as big as what Tesla's aiming at.

The car makers may raise Holy Hell at any timeline, but I remember auto makers in the early 2000's crying before Congress that the 35 mpg proposed future standard was way too much for them to reach. At the time, the cars they sold in Europe, at a profit, averaged 41 mpg, but did not provide the big markup that trucks and bigger cars did in the USA.

Electric cars are the future but I don't think Tesla is.

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2 hours ago, Randomguy said:

15 years is a long time, plus you know there will be problems that will move the timeline to 20 years.  The long distance road-trip driving thing will make or break the whole thing, I can't see driving 300 miles then charging for a couple of hours and repeating that cycle.  I once drove 21 hours straight myself, stopping only to get gas and food.  I don't know how this will be possible without some sort of miracle charge or quick -loading interchangeable battery packs, which I haven't seen discussed in regards to electric cars yet.

The air is crap in CA, though, you have to do something about it.   Many consumers are not wanting to change at this point for practical purposes, so there has to be a push or a pull to make it happen.

I wonder if I will be alive to see it all go down?

Current Teslas can quick charge in about 30 mins for every 3 hours of driving.  not bad if you would be stopping to eat, stretch the legs, etc. anyway.  Also, their navigation and power systems are integrated, so it can tell when you've got enough charge to make it to the next charging station.

 

 

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It's not just the car.  You need a way to charge the car.    Assume charging at home (or work) where you have time to charge will be common.  That's assuming you have a way to charge you car at home. 

https://www.quick220.com/blog/electric-car-charging-ultimate-guide/

Sure you can use a 120 volt source, if you have LOTS of time until the next time you want to use the car.  (21 hour charge time for a Nissan LEAF.)

240 volts is what I'll guess most people will use.  At least for now.  Then again it's not like you have a 50 amp, 240 volt outlet in your garage.    (4 to 7 hours for a Nissan LEAF)  

When we built our new home, one thing I insisted on was planning for a 50 amp, 240 volt circuit for the garage.   The breaker position is open in the breaker box, I'll need to run the wires to the garage.  The difficult part will be getting from the basement into the garage, but I can do it.   (Yeah I was stupid and didn't have the electrician run the wire when we were building the home.)

WoBG, the builder, and the electrician all thought I was crazy for planning for an electric car.   In my opinion... that is the culture for just about all of the US, except for CA. 

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1 minute ago, Bikeguy said:

It's not just the car.  You need a way to charge the car.    Assume charging at home (or work) where you have time to charge will be common.  That's assuming you have a way to charge you car at home. 

https://www.quick220.com/blog/electric-car-charging-ultimate-guide/

Sure you can use a 120 volt source, if you have LOTS of time until the next time you want to use the car.  (21 hour charge time for a Nissan LEAF.)

240 volts is what I'll guess most people will use.  At least for now.  Then again it's not like you have a 50 amp, 240 volt outlet in your garage.    (4 to 7 hours for a Nissan LEAF)  

When we built our new home, one thing I insisted on was planning for a 50 amp, 240 volt circuit for the garage.   The breaker position is open in the breaker box, I'll need to run the wires to the garage.  The difficult part will be getting from the basement into the garage, but I can do it.   (Yeah I was stupid and didn't have the electrician run the wire when we were building the home.)

WoBG, the builder, and the electrician all thought I was crazy for planning for an electric car.   In my opinion... that is the culture for just about all of the US, except for CA. 

I am in business.  I have a 50 A circuit going unused when I took the hot tub out.  The electrical panel sits in the mudroom 18 inches from the inside of the garage.  I could get a 240v 50A circuit into my garage in about a 1/2 hour and the includes taking time the get the right tools.  

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45 minutes ago, Bikeguy said:

It's not just the car.  You need a way to charge the car.    Assume charging at home (or work) where you have time to charge will be common.  That's assuming you have a way to charge you car at home. 

https://www.quick220.com/blog/electric-car-charging-ultimate-guide/

Sure you can use a 120 volt source, if you have LOTS of time until the next time you want to use the car.  (21 hour charge time for a Nissan LEAF.)

240 volts is what I'll guess most people will use.  At least for now.  Then again it's not like you have a 50 amp, 240 volt outlet in your garage.    (4 to 7 hours for a Nissan LEAF)  

When we built our new home, one thing I insisted on was planning for a 50 amp, 240 volt circuit for the garage.   The breaker position is open in the breaker box, I'll need to run the wires to the garage.  The difficult part will be getting from the basement into the garage, but I can do it.   (Yeah I was stupid and didn't have the electrician run the wire when we were building the home.)

WoBG, the builder, and the electrician all thought I was crazy for planning for an electric car.   In my opinion... that is the culture for just about all of the US, except for CA. 

It's likely that, even with only 110 service, the average person can easily recharge overnight.  For me, when I was working at the office, even if I drove to the trails after, i would rarely put on more than 50 miles a day.

 

And the quick charge tesla stations, assuming one is convenient for you, can charge that much in less than 10 mins

 

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I wonder if in the next 15 years self charging e cars will become a viable option.  Some sort of generators running off the wheels, solar panels on the roofs or some other form of self charging device.

I think the power of the Executive Order is it will push auto makers to come up with solutions to current e car limitations.

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5 hours ago, bikeman564™ said:

good question considering there isn't sufficient tricity there now

...electric utility systems are structured around the concept of Peak generating capacity.  There are plenty of hours in a 24 hour day when cars can be charging and not have much impact on peak system capacity. It's just a question of arranging the thing so that the majority of people are charging their cars at night. So far that's being attempted through tiered pricing....but there are more draconian solutions available.

4 hours ago, Randomguy said:

 I once drove 21 hours straight myself, stopping only to get gas and food.  I don't know how this will be possible without some sort of miracle charge or quick -loading interchangeable battery packs, which I haven't seen discussed in regards to electric cars yet.

The air is crap in CA, though, you have to do something about it.   Many consumers are not wanting to change at this point for practical purposes, so there has to be a push or a pull to make it happen.

I wonder if I will be alive to see it all go down?

...I would be in favor of anything that would prevent people from doing this. For the last 12 or 15 hours of your trip you were a hazard to anyone sharing the road with you.

The air quality issues do exist in some areas, but it's not a universal. One of the reasons people try to live closer to the ocean is for the improvement in air quality. The other is temperature modification due to onshore flow. That's why I live here in Sacramento. All the pussies who need clean air and cooler weather are afraid to move here. :)

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Just now, ChrisL said:

Some sort of generators running off the wheels,

That's being done now, it's called regenerative braking.  Any hybrid or electric car should be doing this already. 

7 minutes ago, ChrisL said:

solar panels on the roofs

That can be done now too.  I have the perfect south facing roof location over the garage for a solar panel.  I probably should so do some research to see how may watts I could generate with the space on the roof I have.  

None of this stuff is cheap.  You do get some tax credits... 

The 240 volt charger for the car (a level 2 charger) typically cost about $800.  And of course you need the 50 amp 240 volt outlet (or circuit) in the garage too.

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6 hours ago, team scooter said:

I got torched on the Miata forum when I said I'd buy an electric Miata.  ;)

I think the electric cars are getting better and they will eventually be a thing. No matter how much the rich oil oligarchs resist it. 

 

 

..the only people I've ever met who diss electric cars are people who have never driven one. The LEAF I have here is the earliest model, with not much in the way of oversized motors or huge battery packs, and is still capable of very impressive acceleration. It also handles as well as, or a little better than, to old Alfa Spyder Duetto I owned in Italy.

It has required, in the time we've had it here, one warranty repair to replace a cooling pump in the engine, a couple of updates to the software, and some unnecessary battery checks in the first five years that were really a part of Nissan's battery research project.  But they were required to maintain the warranty.  And this year I had to diagnose the failure of and replace the 12 volt standard model auto battery that powers the cabin, which finally died, probably because we were not driving as much, so it didn't get recharged as regularly due to Covid.

 

That's the longest I've ever had a 12 volt car battery last on anything.

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10 minutes ago, Page Turner said:

And this year I had to diagnose the failure of and replace the 12 volt standard model auto battery that powers the cabin, which finally died

The 12 volt battery for my 2005 Prius died after 8 1/2 years.  It powers the computers, lights, accessories, the typical 12 volt stuff in a car. (not used to start the gas engine)    The 12 volt battery is still a 'typical' car battery, that does need to be replaced.   

My 2005 Prius was the most reliable car I've ever owned. (260,000+ miles)   My 2016 Prius is seems has had no issues for 65,000+ miles.    Both cars I've had zero problems with the high voltage hybrid system. 

That said... I won't be buying an electric car anytime soon.  Not because they won't work for me.  Just because I'm too cheap...   Cars are expensive.   My Prius and Subaru will last for years.

 

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I didn't go full electric but hybrid. It's literally a hybrid between fossil fuel and electricity. I'd like to tell you I did it to save the planet (partially true) but rather I value gas mileage over power. Plus the new RAV4 hybrid has more power than it's strictly gas counterpart anyway. A no brainier really.

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47 minutes ago, Philander Seabury said:

Something is very strange because you don;t see solar at all in AZ, and it should be everywhere there!

We were looking at houses while we were down there in March. Several newer homes had solar panels on the roof. Builders said they would prewire a home for solar if requested. It's strange that they aren't taking advantage of opportunities...

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9 hours ago, Page Turner said:

...I would be in favor of anything that would prevent people from doing this. For the last 12 or 15 hours of your trip you were a hazard to anyone sharing the road with you.

WRONG!  I am well experienced driving 9-14 hours at a stretch, and can (or at least could) do that pretty comfortably.  I thought I was going to top out that day at around 16 hours, but I felt great all the way through, so I kept going.  The last half hour was tough, though.  There have been times driving where I did feel out of it, so I pull over for a nap in those situations.

Anyway, road trips in an electric car seem like they would take a lot more time and could be a bit of a logistical nightmare if charging stations are full, or restaurants closed, or if you have to make time.  They have to find a way to get charging for 300 miles to be 15 minutes or less before you can say they are good for long distance travel.

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47 minutes ago, Randomguy said:

WRONG!  I am well experienced driving 9-14 hours at a stretch, and can (or at least could) do that pretty comfortably.  I thought I was going to top out that day at around 16 hours, but I felt great all the way through, so I kept going.  The last half hour was tough, though.  There have been times driving where I did feel out of it, so I pull over for a nap in those situations.

 

Commercial drivers carrying property may drive for up to 11 hours within a 14-hour operation window following a 10-hour rest period This 14-hour window includes non-driving work such as vehicle maintenance, fuel stops and paperwork. Additionally, commercial drivers are required to take rest breaks of at least 30 minutes after no more than 8 hours of driving.

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26 minutes ago, Page Turner said:

Commercial drivers carrying property may drive for up to 11 hours within a 14-hour operation window following a 10-hour rest period This 14-hour window includes non-driving work such as vehicle maintenance, fuel stops and paperwork. Additionally, commercial drivers are required to take rest breaks of at least 30 minutes after no more than 8 hours of driving.

Good thing I wasn't a commercial driver ever!

I actually hate driving, it pretty much is the worst.  A car is to get you where you are going as fast as humanly possible so you can not be in a car.  Any tactic to get to that end is mandatory.  Speeding?  Yup, a way of life.  Long distances in one clip?  Yep, why on earth would you want to extend the drive with long sit-down meals?  A quick nap?  if you can stave off fatigue in a short nap and get back on the road, you have to do it, just anything to be done with being in the car!

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31 minutes ago, Randomguy said:

I actually hate driving, it pretty much is the worst. 

Just think... by they time you can't buy a car that burns gas in CA, you should be able to tell you car where you want to go, and the car will drive you.  And just like those robot vacuum cleaners, the car will drive to a charging station when it needs to be recharged.  All you need to do is sit there and be even more bored, or sleep, or work, or ???  

And all of those commercial drivers... well they better have a new plan.  

 

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48 minutes ago, Randomguy said:

Good thing I wasn't a commercial driver ever!

I actually hate driving, it pretty much is the worst.  A car is to get you where you are going as fast as humanly possible so you can not be in a car.  Any tactic to get to that end is mandatory.  Speeding?  Yup, a way of life.  Long distances in one clip?  Yep, why on earth would you want to extend the drive with long sit-down meals?  A quick nap?  if you can stave off fatigue in a short nap and get back on the road, you have to do it, just anything to be done with being in the car!

...you should take one of those trips where they load your car on the train, and you ride in the train cars. When you get off next morning in Florida, they hand you your car at the station. :) You could easily do this with an electric car as well.

 

 

Amtrak’s DC to Orlando Auto Train

 

 

 

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I think it's a bit foolish to make decisions on the daily driver based on the possibility of something you might need once or twice a year... or never.  If you really need a car for a long distance trip, you could always rent one.  Assuming their house is capable of charging their car overnight, the majority of people will actually never have to stop for "gas" as they now currently do.

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7 minutes ago, Reverend_Maynard said:

I think it's a bit foolish to make decisions on the daily driver based on the possibility of something you might need once or twice a year... or never.  If you really need a car for a long distance trip, you could always rent one.  Assuming their house is capable of charging their car overnight, the majority of people will actually never have to stop for "gas" as they now currently do.

Aha, that is what people do all the time!  How many people have pickup trucks that never get worked?  How many have SUV's that don't get dirty?

When I had an SUV, I got it dirty and took it offroad for wilderness camping adventures so I wouldn't see other people.  Those were well away from where a charging station would ever be.  Also, since air travel is such a hassle, I would drive most places to make things difficult in an easier to control way.  For instance, I would drive to Ohio to visit folks (8 1/2 hour drive) rather than fly because of the shitshow of airplane annoyance (buying tickets well beforehand, getting there early, going through security, expensive and crappy airport food, getting nickle and dimed with carry on and baggage, being stuck next to 300 pounders who cough and sneeze and generally stink, delays, etc).  If it is twice as long to drive as to fly (by flight time), generally you are waaaaay better off with the road trip.  No way on a drive to Ohio am I stopping 3 times to charge up, making it a 10 + hour drive no matter what.

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1 minute ago, Randomguy said:

Aha, that is what people do all the time!  How many people have pickup trucks that never get worked?  How many have SUV's that don't get dirty?

When I had an SUV, I got it dirty and took it offroad for wilderness camping adventures so I wouldn't see other people.  Those were well away from where a charging station would ever be.  Also, since air travel is such a hassle, I would drive most places to make things difficult in an easier to control way.  For instance, I would drive to Ohio to visit folks (8 1/2 hour drive) rather than fly because of the shitshow of airplane annoyance (buying tickets well beforehand, getting there early, going through security, expensive and crappy airport food, getting nickle and dimed with carry on and baggage, being stuck next to 300 pounders who cough and sneeze and generally stink, delays, etc).  If it is twice as long to drive as to fly (by flight time), generally you are waaaaay better off with the road trip.  No way on a drive to Ohio am I stopping 3 times to charge up, making it a 10 + hour drive no matter what.

right, but you could, if having an electric daily driver was important enough to you, rent a suitably sized vehicle for the particular trip you were making, for a similar cost to airfare, I would think

 

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3 minutes ago, Reverend_Maynard said:

right, but you could, if having an electric daily driver was important enough to you, rent a suitably sized vehicle for the particular trip you were making, for a similar cost to airfare, I would think

 

I don't think so, not in NYC.  Plus, reservations/damages/insurance/returns/pickup and other niggling problems with renting is a pain.  When I got here in 2007, the cheapest rental car I could find was $106 a day, and for an economy car!  It is probably better now because of all the apps and such, but still an expensive pain.

https://youtu.be/4T2GmGSNvaM

 

 

 

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20 hours ago, Bikeguy said:

The 12 volt battery for my 2005 Prius died after 8 1/2 years.  It powers the computers, lights, accessories, the typical 12 volt stuff in a car. (not used to start the gas engine)    The 12 volt battery is still a 'typical' car battery, that does need to be replaced.   

My 2005 Prius was the most reliable car I've ever owned. (260,000+ miles)   My 2016 Prius is seems has had no issues for 65,000+ miles.    Both cars I've had zero problems with the high voltage hybrid system. 

That said... I won't be buying an electric car anytime soon.  Not because they won't work for me.  Just because I'm too cheap...   Cars are expensive.   My Prius and Subaru will last for years.

 

If they went 100% hybrid they would make tremendous gains in emissions and still have vehicles with range a no charging problems.  Just sayn

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1 hour ago, Randomguy said:

I don't think so, not in NYC.  Plus, reservations/damages/insurance/returns/pickup and other niggling problems with renting is a pain.  When I got here in 2007, the cheapest rental car I could find was $106 a day, and for an economy car!  It is probably better now because of all the apps and such, but still an expensive pain.

https://youtu.be/4T2GmGSNvaM

 

 

 

Always check at the smaller airports for rentals. When we went to Boston, we actually flew into Hartford, CT and rented a car there. The rental rate was much lower than picking up one at Logan. 

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45 minutes ago, groupw said:

Always check at the smaller airports for rentals. When we went to Boston, we actually flew into Hartford, CT and rented a car there. The rental rate was much lower than picking up one at Logan. 

Totally off topic I know but being that I live near a regional airport but usually fly out of LAX... We would go to John Wayne airport and rent a an economic box.  We’d then drive that car to LAX, return it there and take the rental shuttle to the gate & reverse the process for the trip home. 

Saves us a boatload on parking fees for extended trips & less hassle for others to pick us up.

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On 9/24/2020 at 9:51 AM, Randomguy said:

or quick -loading interchangeable battery packs, which I haven't seen discussed in regards to electric cars yet.

The discussion goes back to at least 2015, and this 2018 Wired story shows that it is the sort of idea that is more quietly being worked on in the background, but still in the "working on it" category.

Pure and simple, the electric vehicle is THE vehicle of the 21st century.  It remains to be seen which method to power the electric motors is the eventual winner, but regardless, it will be electric motors that propel vehicles into the mid and late 21st century.

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16 minutes ago, Razors Edge said:

The discussion goes back to at least 2015, and this 2018 Wired story shows that it is the sort of idea that is more quietly being worked on in the background, but still in the "working on it" category.

Pure and simple, the electric vehicle is THE vehicle of the 21st century.  It remains to be seen which method to power the electric motors is the eventual winner, but regardless, it will be electric motors that propel vehicles into the mid and late 21st century.

And will the avalanche of used up batteries be the ecological disaster of the 21st century?

 

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1 hour ago, Razors Edge said:

The discussion goes back to at least 2015, and this 2018 Wired story shows that it is the sort of idea that is more quietly being worked on in the background, but still in the "working on it" category.

Pure and simple, the electric vehicle is THE vehicle of the 21st century.  It remains to be seen which method to power the electric motors is the eventual winner, but regardless, it will be electric motors that propel vehicles into the mid and late 21st century.

It makes so much sense.  Pull into a changing station, and all batteries disengage and are removed, and full battery packs are inserted in their place and off you go.  I like the quick stop for batteries and food and no dicking around aspect.  Kinda like a pit stop.

 

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