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So, CA is gonna ban sale of petrol cars in 15 years


Randomguy

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28 minutes ago, Randomguy said:

It makes so much sense.  Pull into a changing station, and all batteries disengage and are removed, and full battery packs are inserted in their place and off you go.  I like the quick stop for batteries and food and no dicking around aspect.  Kinda like a pit stop.

 

It also is hugely dependent on what battery tech looks likes in 5, 10, 15, and more years out.  Or energy creation & storage itself in vehicles.  It's a steadily building wave that becomes a tsunami but there seem to be folks who think there are too many obstacles to overcome or burdens to endure.  I guess there need to be naysayers to make the rest of us look smart :D

On 9/24/2020 at 10:45 AM, MickinMD said:

Once there's a strong nationwide network of electric vehicle fast-charging and servicing stations, the big car companies and their engineering and financial muscle are going to push companies like Tesla into a niche corner and dominate the market and all-gas engine cars will go the way of the horse and buggy. Look at how fast GM came up with the Chevy Volt: short lived but had a greater range than Tesla

I seriously doubt this is based on anything realistic right now.  Sure, stock value means little sometimes, but as Tesla is worth multiple times more what GM and Ford are combined (Musk himself worth - on his own - what those two COMPANIES are worth), there is definitely now the option that Tesla could simply buy GM if it wanted, but not the other way around.

Likewise, the Volt (a niche but fairly good "plug in hybrid") had range solely due to having a ICE that charged the batteries to extend the range.  That's an option for sure, as simple battery storage may not be best, but the Volt will only ever be considered a stepping stone for GM to keep their options open.   Now at the end of its run, does the Bolt carry the mantle? Does GM shift to truck hybrids and eventual full electric?  Ford seems more serious with the commitment to electric, so I think it remains to be seen if it is GM that becomes the niche company with focus solely on high performance vehicles and pseudo-work trucks/SUVs. 

The Volt's electric range was a pretty mild 38 miles before the little ICE kicked in to help out with topping off the battery.  I like that sort of idea - ie most local & daily driving is covered under battery power only, but for a guy like RG who wants to go long, the ICE will keep things going until the next fuel stop at the 420 mile mark.

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A Tesla 3 has that "battery only" range well beat - from 220 to 322 depending on trim.  Again, nothing that gets you across the US quickly, but more than enough for 95-99% of most folks driving needs.  The Model S can get up to 400 miles on a charge.  One thing to remember is Teslas and other EVs might (usually do) get WORSE highway ranges due to zero regenerative braking and higher than optimal speeds.  So, 322 is likely a high, not a norm.

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36 minutes ago, Randomguy said:

It makes so much sense.  Pull into a changing station, and all batteries disengage and are removed, and full battery packs are inserted in their place and off you go.  I like the quick stop for batteries and food and no dicking around aspect.  Kinda like a pit stop.

 

Think of all the jobs for service station monkeys that will open up.

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On the what to do with old EV batteries front, there is the utility storage farm. While batteries are considered used up when they no longer charge past about 70% of initial capacity for an EV's purposes (capacity per given weight being very important), they are still useful, and can survive many years longer at a utility storage farm where weight is meaningless and sophisticated charging and discharging algorithms can nurse them much more efficiently.

Also, there is already supposed to be lithium ion tech that can last 10-100 times as many cycles... so-called "million mile" batteries.  This should also help to speed acceptance of the battery swapping strategy discussed above (with less concern that the battery you get will be significantly degraded compared to your own original battery).  Theoretically, the stations servicing these batteries can do so in an way that's optimized for battery life.

TBS, yes, battery waste is going to be a significant hurdle in the future.  Let's hope we've learned something from the experience of big-oil, and force the manufacturers to foot the cost, and logistics, of recycling the batteries before they can sell them.  Leaving it up to the consumer is really just big business banking the profits on the backs of future pollution, again.

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A lot can happen in 15 years, but also huge questions. Most people think of it as commute and perhaps short trips. And yes there are performance cars. But what about your toys. What will tow your boat or pull that RV, or power the Class C and Class A rvs? If it can actually pull, how does the range deteriorate? 

If they are exempted, everyone is going to own a heavy duty truck. Likewise, have shell corporations created in Minnesota, Nevada, Texas, or Florida and you will have 'company' vehicles registered there if unable to claim personal residence in those States. Many RVers do that now with those being the favorite States with low licensing fees.

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11 minutes ago, Tizeye said:

A lot can happen in 15 years, but also huge questions. Most people think of it as commute and perhaps short trips. And yes there are performance cars. But what about your toys. What will tow your boat or pull that RV, or power the Class C and Class A rvs? If it can actually pull, how does the range deteriorate? 

If they are exempted, everyone is going to own a heavy duty truck. Likewise, have shell corporations created in Minnesota, Nevada, Texas, or Florida and you will have 'company' vehicles registered there if unable to claim personal residence in those States. Many RVers do that now with those being the favorite States with low licensing fees.

All things to consider and see where it plays out.  But even with the "exemption", it will still be a 90% sort of thing, so a huge improvement just from that.  If the RVs take time to  transition, then so be it.  Remember, though, that in the consumer truck arena, they're rapidly jumping to hybridization.  Then there are the Tesla truck or Rivian pick-up type of things coming along soon too.  RVs and semis - which are in heavier and super heavy categories - will also make tremendous strides.  Semis/tractor trailers are an area where not just electrification will occur, but also autonomous driving.  Very hard to foresee where this leads, but the ONE SURE THING is that it does NOT lead towards more ICE.  Hopefully, the sound of a sweet engine revving and purring will never go away, but to think it will be "common" in 2050 is a real pipe dream at this point.

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2 minutes ago, Kzoo said:

Oh, the sweet purr of a brushless motor.

 

It really gets one pumped - not!  It really is "uninspiring" but in something like a Tesla, your ear-to-ear grin as you are squashed back into the seat more than makes up for it.  It's interesting to think that folks will make a decision to buy slower, higher maintenance, and less performing vehicles simply for the joy of the sounds of an engine.  It will be a small niche group, but it will definitely be a group.  Heck, there are Edsel enthusiast clubs out there, so why wouldn't there be ones for some of the true great cars that are made these days?

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15 minutes ago, Razors Edge said:

Semis/tractor trailers are an area where not just electrification will occur, but also autonomous driving.  Very hard to foresee where this leads

I'd be nervous if I were a trucker.  I think there are a lot of companies who wouldn't mind replacing drivers with autonomous vehicles.  The long hall lines could load up at the end of the day and send an autonomous truck over night to its destination.  I think it will take time for an autonomous truck can handle real city traffic.  Being able to handle interstate traffic when the road is relatively empty over night is pretty close though.

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4 minutes ago, Mr. Silly said:

I think it will take time for an autonomous truck can handle real city traffic. 

That's where the drones take over!!! They fly stuff over that traffic :)

Of course, in 15 years, maybe there is no "traffic"????  Surely semi and fully autonomous cars will be efficiently moving folks around to avoid creating traffic in the first place?

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14 minutes ago, Razors Edge said:

It really gets one pumped - not!  It really is "uninspiring" but in something like a Tesla, your ear-to-ear grin as you are squashed back into the seat more than makes up for it.  It's interesting to think that folks will make a decision to buy slower, higher maintenance, and less performing vehicles simply for the joy of the sounds of an engine.  It will be a small niche group, but it will definitely be a group.  Heck, there are Edsel enthusiast clubs out there, so why wouldn't there be ones for some of the true great cars that are made these days?

Some time ago I was watching a Formula E (I think that’s what it was called) race on TV and although I could appreciate the tech and speed of the cars the sound was just not right...  Adjustments I guess.

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3 minutes ago, Razors Edge said:

Surely semi and fully autonomous cars will be efficiently moving folks around to avoid creating traffic in the first place?

Did someone smack you real hard on the back of the head?....................... Or did your mother drop you as a baby?

 

File this under 'dreaming'

 

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2 minutes ago, ChrisL said:

Some time ago I was watching a Formula E (I think that’s what it was called) race on TV and although I could appreciate the tech and speed of the cars the sound was just not right...  Adjustments I guess.

Fake sounds are definitely something that has been and will be part of the EV world.  Too funny to think about, but still likely to be where we end up. 

2 minutes ago, Kzoo said:

Did someone smack you real hard on the back of the head?....................... Or did your mother drop you as a baby?

 

File this under 'dreaming'

 

Yeah. I was just chuckling as I typed it.  Realistically, with 15-20 year lifecycles of modern cars the norm, it's going to be well in the 40s before we hit a point where enough cars are EVs and autonomous enough to sort out traffic snarls.

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14 minutes ago, ChrisL said:

Some time ago I was watching a Formula E (I think that’s what it was called) race on TV and although I could appreciate the tech and speed of the cars the sound was just not right...  Adjustments I guess

Electric vehicles should make the sound of the flying cars in the Jetsons.

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1 hour ago, Mr. Silly said:

Electric vehicles should make the sound of the flying cars in the Jetsons.

That's actually a good idea. 

My 2005 Prius never many any noise when moving only by the electric motor.   Apparently that was a problem that was never expected, especially in parking lots/garages where there is the opportunity for car VS pedestrian collisions.   People 'hear' cars with gas engines while they are walking in a parking lot.  They don't hear electric cars, they tend to walk into the path of the car.  There have been considerably more pedestrian vs car accidents with hybrid/electric cars.

More than once, I would back the 2005 Prius out of the garage, and WoBG (outside in the driveway or yard) was scared... she never heard or expected the car to move.  There is no engine starting noise, no engine noise at all.  Electric motors are quiet.  The car just moves.

My 2016 Prius makes an artificial noise (there has to be a speaker under the hood) when operating at low speeds (under 16 mph) so people can hear the car.  

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Tesla and others are unveiling a nickel-based battery that's supposed to change everything.

If it, and other developments like fast-charging stations appear in the next several years, almost no one but antique enthusiasts are going to want gas-driven cars.

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