94.5%

[donkpow]

The level of effectiveness of the Moderna COVID vaccine. Results of large scale testing released today. This is the second major player to confirm positive news on the COVID front in the last couple of weeks. US citizens will receive vaccines at no cost to themselves regardless of insurance status or ability to pay.

[Guest]

Almost as good as the 99%+ recovery rate.

[bikeman564™]

36 minutes ago, donkpow said:

US citizens will receive vaccines at no cost to themselves regardless of insurance status or ability to pay.

[Longjohn ★]

44 minutes ago, donkpow said:

US citizens will receive vaccines at no cost to themselves regardless of insurance status or ability to pay.

If they do that owl bet they include everyone else too.

[maddmaxx ★]

We might get some by the end of summer

 

[donkpow]

21 minutes ago, maddmaxx said:

We might get some by the end of summer

 

Rollout will probably start before the end of the year. Phased in multiple tiers, most at risk first. There is talk since this latest development of a vaccine that there will be widespread availability in the second quarter of 2021.

[jsharr ★]

26 minutes ago, maddmaxx said:

We might get some by the end of summer

 

Summer of 22 or 23?

[maddmaxx ★]

18 minutes ago, donkpow said:

Rollout will probably start before the end of the year. Phased in multiple tiers, most at risk first. There is talk since this latest development of a vaccine that there will be widespread availability in the second quarter of 2021.

Remember when they crow about 30 million doses that's only 10% of the country.  It appears that the new vaccine is a dual dose 28 days apart vaccine.  I assume that the rest of the world may bid on some of it.  The average person may be lucky to see vaccine by summer.  

 

We are speaking of the government here right?

[Razors Edge ★]

1 minute ago, maddmaxx said:

Remember when they crow about 30 million doses that's only 10% of the country.  It appears that the new vaccine is a dual dose 28 days apart vaccine.  I assume that the rest of the world may bid on some of it.  The average person may be lucky to see vaccine by summer.  

I'll take Summer 2021!  I'd prefer Jan 2021, but even summer is better than never.  I'd be interested to see if TWO (or more) vaccines rolling out across the world will make it easier to get vaccinated.  I'd also be interested to see if the Pfizer and this Moderna one can be produced in multiple facilities across the world, so Asia can crank out the vaccines for Asia, Europe can crank out theirs, and the US or Africa or others can simultaneously be ramping up their production. 

A big challenge will be finding a more "shelf stable" vaccine, since it seems one or both are still in the "keep it at sub-zero temps" before use situation.  Double shots also mean it is harder to get distributed and coordinated.  I think the remaining questions about long term immunity and whether or not a person can still spread COVID despite being vaccinated or the like. 

In any case, there remains a light at the end of the tunnel, but it is still a LONG way from us going back the movie theaters and mosh pits

[Kzoo]

17 minutes ago, Razors Edge said:

I'd also be interested to see if the Pfizer and this Moderna one can be produced in multiple facilities across the world,

I know the Pfizer facility in Kalamazoo has been cranking out the stuff 24x7 for several weeks now.  They have not been waiting for approval the produce.  The federal government gave them a big chunk of money to make it happen whether they achieved approval or not.  If their product is not approved, the contract calls for them to produce someone else's formula.

 

[Razors Edge ★]

10 minutes ago, Kzoo said:

I know the Pfizer facility in Kalamazoo has been cranking out the stuff 24x7 for several weeks now.  They have not been waiting for approval the produce.  The federal government gave them a big chunk of money to make it happen whether they achieved approval or not.  If their product is not approved, the contract calls for them to produce someone else's formula.

 

Yep - the cost of "waiting" - in terms of economic and human costs - is FAR FAR higher than picking one or two likely candidates, getting stuff moving, and rolling out rapidly IF the candidate ends up being safe and effective.  After a multi-trillion dollar hit to the economy, a billion here or there to finally get a handle on this COVID thing will be considered cheap.

[donkpow]

1 hour ago, maddmaxx said:

We are speaking of the government here right?

The gov't isn't producing it.  They are setting the distribution priorities, reviewing the test data, and paying for the vaccines. It definitely remains to be seen how distribution will occur.  I know I would be looking for a jack booted thug to make that happen.

[Razors Edge ★]

16 minutes ago, donkpow said:

The gov't isn't producing it.  They are setting the distribution priorities, reviewing the test data, and paying for the vaccines. It definitely remains to be seen how distribution will occur.  I know I would be looking for a jack booted thug to make that happen.

What is interesting is that it DOES remain to be seen (or detailed & explained).  Like, if Pfizer and maybe Moderna are ready to have vaccines produced ahead of final okays, WTF are we wondering what the "next" step will be?  It is Nov 16th, not April 16th.

[Kzoo]

22 minutes ago, donkpow said:

They are setting the distribution priorities,

And they have military logistics people in place already working on that part.  Priority lists have already been created that starts with frontline healthcare workers, nursing care facilities, the infirm and the elderly and then on to the general population.

[donkpow]

1 minute ago, Kzoo said:

And they have military logistics people in place already working on that part.  Priority lists have already been created that starts with frontline healthcare workers, nursing care facilities, the infirm and the elderly and then on to the general population.

I heard in the news outlet that the military is ready to roll.

 

[Razors Edge ★]

6 minutes ago, Kzoo said:

And they have military logistics people in place already working on that part.  Priority lists have already been created that starts with frontline healthcare workers, nursing care facilities, the infirm and the elderly and then on to the general population.

So @Prophet Zacharia gets this before ME!!!! WTF????  And someone like @Square Wheels? Hospital-related, but not front line. Where does he fit in?  I hope @petitepedal is up there in the early group.  I wonder what is "elderly"?  65+?  75+?  I wonder if factory or farm workers or similar dense populations but important to the economy?  It would seem a push to get them inoculated ASAP would be wise.  And are military folks the usual set of "guinea pigs"? 

I'm low man on the totem pole seemingly.

[donkpow]

Just now, Razors Edge said:

So @Prophet Zacharia gets this before ME!!!! WTF????  And someone like @Square Wheels? Hospital-related, but not front line. Where does he fit in?  I hope @petitepedal is up there in the early group.  I wonder what is "elderly"?  65+?  75+?  I wonder if factory or farm workers or similar dense populations but important to the economy?  It would seem a push to get them inoculated ASAP would be wise.  And are military folks the usual set of "guinea pigs"? 

I'm low man on the totem pole seemingly.

Tsk. Not a single interrobang in the bunch.

[Razors Edge ★]

1 minute ago, donkpow said:

Tsk. Not a single interrobang in the bunch.

When I'm on my soapbox, interrobangs are less important than !!!! or ????

But, yeah, they are missed when I go too long without using them.

[Kzoo]

15 minutes ago, donkpow said:

Tsk. Not a single interrobang in the bunch.

What the heck are you babbling about‽

[maddmaxx ★]

3 minutes ago, Kzoo said:

What the heck are you babbling about‽

Punctuation 

[Prophet Zacharia]

2 hours ago, Razors Edge said:

A big challenge will be finding a more "shelf stable" vaccine, since it seems one or both are still in the "keep it at sub-zero temps" before use situation.  Double shots also mean it is harder to get distributed and coordinated. 

The Modena one only needs refrigeration for moderate length storage, and freezer for long-term storage. And other vaccines require a series to be given for efficiency, so I don’t see these as deal-breakers.

[Prophet Zacharia]

49 minutes ago, Razors Edge said:

So @Prophet Zacharia gets this before ME!!!! WTF???? 

As it should be. Noobs are bottom of the list, after all.

 

50 minutes ago, Razors Edge said:

I'm low man on the totem pole seemingly.

[groupw]

...and it's already political out there. A nurse friend on FB asked who would be in line for the vaccine when available. I can pretty much tell you who they voted for based on their responses....

[Prophet Zacharia]

1 hour ago, Razors Edge said:

WTF are we wondering what the "next" step will be?  It is Nov 16th, not April 16th.

Because the safety aspect of the Phase II studies isn’t yet complete? They think they have shown efficacy but haven’t yet followed them long enough to complete the assessments of side effects. I was thinking availability would be mid-first quarter 2021 for highest risk people/medical/first responders, and then later in the spring for wider distribution?

 

So maybe in the fall 2021 for Noobs?

[Kzoo]

11 minutes ago, Prophet Zacharia said:

The Modena one only needs refrigeration for moderate length storage, and freezer for long-term storage. And other vaccines require a series to be given for efficiency, so I don’t see these as deal-breakers.

The Modena vaccine has similar requirement to existing vaccines so physicians offices and pharmacies already have the storage technology.  Both can be stores for short periods in typical refrigeration.

 

[Kzoo]

1 minute ago, Prophet Zacharia said:

Because the safety aspect of the Phase II studies isn’t yet complete? They think they have shown efficacy but haven’t yet followed them long enough to complete the assessments of side effects. I was thinking availability would be mid-first quarter 2021 for highest risk people/medical/first responders, and then later in the spring for wider distribution?

I have heard, based on the accumulation of safety data which is happening now, that first use could be as early as the second week of December.  General pop. would be April based on current understandings.

 

[Prophet Zacharia]

7 minutes ago, Kzoo said:

The Modena vaccine has similar requirement to existing vaccines so physicians offices and pharmacies already have the storage technology.  Both can be stores for short periods in typical refrigeration.

 

Ah, I had thought the Pfizer vaccine needed super-cooling for anything more than fairly immediate use.  But regardless, the Modena product certainly seems more stable.

[Kzoo]

2 minutes ago, Prophet Zacharia said:

Ah, I had thought the Pfizer vaccine needed super-cooling for anything more than fairly immediate use.

It does but I haven't found out what short term storage equates to.

[Square Wheels]

1 hour ago, Razors Edge said:

So @Prophet Zacharia gets this before ME!!!! WTF????  And someone like @Square Wheels? Hospital-related, but not front line. Where does he fit in?  I hope @petitepedal is up there in the early group.  I wonder what is "elderly"?  65+?  75+?  I wonder if factory or farm workers or similar dense populations but important to the economy?  It would seem a push to get them inoculated ASAP would be wise.  And are military folks the usual set of "guinea pigs"? 

I'm low man on the totem pole seemingly.

 

You can have mine.  One word - Tuskegee.

[maddmaxx ★]

15 minutes ago, Kzoo said:

I have heard, based on the accumulation of safety data which is happening now, that first use could be as early as the second week of December.  General pop. would be April based on current understandings.

 

Reality need not enter here either.

[Kzoo]

40 minutes ago, Square Wheels said:

You can have mine.  One word - Tuskegee.

Or Swine Flu vaccine 1976.

 

[maddmaxx ★]

The vaccine will be useless if many people treat it the same as wearing a mask.

[Prophet Zacharia]

21 minutes ago, Kzoo said:

Or Swine Flu vaccine 1976.

 

What was the issue there? I know about the early polio fauxpaus....

What you have to keep in mind is the technology involved... these vaccines don’t have any virus in them, just proteins that create an immune response but nothing whole that could inadvertently be underkilled.

[Kzoo]

1 hour ago, Prophet Zacharia said:

What was the issue there? I know about the early polio fauxpaus....

What you have to keep in mind is the technology involved... these vaccines don’t have any virus in them, just proteins that create an immune response but nothing whole that could inadvertently be underkilled.

Several hundred cases of Guillain-Barre syndrome and several deaths attributed to the vaccine.  As I remember, this was after the vaccine was 'rushed' top market.  The Guillain-Barre syndrome issues and deaths did not appear until several months after the vaccinations.  A person I knew developed Guillain-Barre syndrome. He recovered but lost the feeling in both feet.  Do you know how hard it is to walk with no feeling in your feet.  He learned to walk with boots tightly strapped to his calves to create a sense of feeling for walking.  He couldn't get up to pee in the middle of the night without strapping on his work boots. 

[Razors Edge ★]

1 minute ago, Kzoo said:

Several hundred cases of Guillain-Barre syndrome and several deaths attributed to the vaccine.  As I remember, this was after the vaccine was 'rushed' top market. 

Wiki has a neat write-up on it (surprise!).  And a great photo:

[12string]

What's interesting about these two vaccines is that they are a new family of vaccines that have no components of the actual virus - or proteins - in them.  They simply modify RNA to rewire the patients' DNA, which then creates a protein that emulates the virus, which then teaches the DNA to create antibodies.   Work on this method started in 2005 at University of Pennsylvania, and was mostly complete.  All that was needed was to examine the DNA in patients who had created antibodies, then it's rather easy to create the RNA.  That's why this was able to happen so quickly.  I surmise that all future vaccines will work this way.  You no longer have to go through the symptoms while your body thinks it has a virus.  It simply learns how to recognize it and attack it if it ever gets it.

All of the drug companies have been building production facilities that are agreed to be shared if their own vaccine fails.  I don't know how they modify virus based to RNA based.

And, BTW, the nationwide rollout will actually be phase III of the testing.  Skipping right to it

[Dottleshead ★]

9 hours ago, Zackny said:

Almost as good as the 99%+ recovery rate.

So like 4.5% better or something like that??

[maddmaxx ★]

[Kirby]

And now comes the news that Dolly Parton contributed $1,000,000 to establish a Covid Research Fund that is listed as one of the sponsors of Moderna's Research.  She is a treasure.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/17/entertainment/dolly-parton-covid-moderna-vaccine-trnd/index.html

Quote

Parton's name appears in the preliminary report on the vaccine among sponsors like the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, which Dr. Anthony Fauci heads, and Emory University. She originally donated to Vanderbilt University Medical Center in honor of her friend and Vanderbilt professor of surgery Dr. Naji Abumrad.

 

[Kzoo]

1 hour ago, Kirby said:

And now comes the news that Dolly Parton contributed $1,000,000 to establish a Covid Research Fund that is listed as one of the sponsors of Moderna's Research.  She is a treasure.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/17/entertainment/dolly-parton-covid-moderna-vaccine-trnd/index.html

 

She is that but this is drop in the bucket compared to the 2 billon (that billion with a b) that the US government gave Moderna several months ago to make it happen.

 

[maddmaxx ★]

That they say they gave.

[Razors Edge ★]

30 minutes ago, Kzoo said:

She is that but this is drop in the bucket compared to the 2 billon (that billion with a b) that the US government gave Moderna several months ago to make it happen.

 

Which will be interesting to hear more about.  We get 100 million doses of the vaccine in exchange for the $1.5 billion.  So that covers 50 million Americans?  Assuming the "vaccine is free for all Americans" sticks, does that mean we get to buy an additional 400 million doses for 4 x $1.5B or does the price come down? $15/shot x 2 seems reasonable, and does that put pressure on the Pfizer one to be below that cost? 

[Kzoo]

26 minutes ago, maddmaxx said:

That they say they gave.

Maxi, our bundle of positivity.

 

[maddmaxx ★]

7 minutes ago, Kzoo said:

Maxi, our bundle of positivity.

 

PPP.  My take on government promises.

They signed contracts with 7 companies.  The stock market boomed.

[Kirby]

3 hours ago, Kzoo said:

She is that but this is drop in the bucket compared to the 2 billon (that billion with a b) that the US government gave Moderna several months ago to make it happen.

 

Sure, but it's more than Reba McEntire or Garth Brooks.

[Kzoo]

30 minutes ago, Kirby said:

Sure, but it's more than Reba McEntire or Garth Brooks.

Tru Dat 

[Razors Edge ★]

3 hours ago, maddmaxx said:

PPP.  My take on government promises.

They signed contracts with 7 companies.  The stock market boomed.

Not "promises" - actual agreements with $$$ involved.  It's not too crazy and was the low hanging fruit, so not sure what's strange or snarky about it.

[Prophet Zacharia]

On 11/16/2020 at 6:17 PM, 12string said:

the nationwide rollout will actually be phase III of the testing.  Skipping right to it

I believe Phase III is testing against known standard of care. So... yeah.

[Razors Edge ★]

19 hours ago, Razors Edge said:

Which will be interesting to hear more about.  We get 100 million doses of the vaccine in exchange for the $1.5 billion.  So that covers 50 million Americans?  Assuming the "vaccine is free for all Americans" sticks, does that mean we get to buy an additional 400 million doses for 4 x $1.5B or does the price come down? $15/shot x 2 seems reasonable, and does that put pressure on the Pfizer one to be below that cost? 

Now I am getting confused/irritated.

From what I read on the Moderna agreement was that we were CURRENTLY mass producing the vaccine 1) for the trial run (30,000 folks?) and 2) in anticipation of the final approval that it is safe and ready for distribution immediately after approval.  Now I am reading that there will be 20 million doses available (of the Moderna one and possibly the Pfizer one) by end of year.  Why isn't it the full 100 million? Or even more?  Is there a production capacity issue?  Artificial limits due to other throughput bottlenecks (skilled nurses, distribution network, etc.)?

So, what's up with that?  If we only can crank out 20 million doses in several months (presumably at least Oct, Nov, and Dec) that's only 7 million doses a month and we need 500 million doses.  When does the scaling up begin?

@Prophet Zacharia? @Kzoo?

[donkpow]

1 hour ago, Razors Edge said:

Now I am getting confused/irritated.

From what I read on the Moderna agreement was that we were CURRENTLY mass producing the vaccine 1) for the trial run (30,000 folks?) and 2) in anticipation of the final approval that it is safe and ready for distribution immediately after approval.  Now I am reading that there will be 20 million doses available (of the Moderna one and possibly the Pfizer one) by end of year.  Why isn't it the full 100 million? Or even more?  Is there a production capacity issue?  Artificial limits due to other throughput bottlenecks (skilled nurses, distribution network, etc.)?

So, what's up with that?  If we only can crank out 20 million doses in several months (presumably at least Oct, Nov, and Dec) that's only 7 million doses a month and we need 500 million doses.  When does the scaling up begin?

@Prophet Zacharia? @Kzoo?

Yeah, it's a capacity issue. This is a new type of vaccine, at least at this level of required production, and production facilities are not in place for the Pfizer and Moderna developed messenger RNA type vaccine. Normally there would be a coalition between inventor and producer/manufacturer. That doesn't exist here either. We're kind of lucky they went ahead with some degree of production. This type of thing normally takes years to put together.

We also have delivery things to put together, too.