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Square Wheels Cycling

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42 minutes ago, donkpow said:

Yeah, it's a capacity issue. This is a new type of vaccine, at least at this level of required production, and production facilities are not in place for the Pfizer and Moderna developed messenger RNA type vaccine. Normally there would be a coalition between inventor and producer/manufacturer. That doesn't exist here either. We're kind of lucky they went ahead with some degree of production. This type of thing normally takes years to put together.

We also have delivery things to put together, too.

We didn't have enough masks when we needed them.

We didn't have enough PPE when we needed it.

We didn't have enough testing when we needed it.

What in the world would possible make you believe that we will have enough vaccine?

Insanity.

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26 minutes ago, maddmaxx said:

We didn't have enough masks when we needed them. We do now.

We didn't have enough PPE when we needed it. We do now

We didn't have enough testing when we needed it. We do now

What in the world would possible make you believe that we will have enough vaccine? They've been planning for this in advance.  Something as simple as the vials the vaccine is stored in - manufacturing started months ago.  That said, 300 million (or 600 million) doses just for the US is a lot of vaccine.

Insanity. Tru dat

 

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30 minutes ago, maddmaxx said:

We didn't have enough masks when we needed them.

We didn't have enough PPE when we needed it.

We didn't have enough testing when we needed it.

What in the world would possible make you believe that we will have enough vaccine?

Insanity.

Another ray of sunshine

 

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1 hour ago, Square Wheels said:

 

You may have enough ppe with that big warehouse in Mass but parts of the country are running out and we still cannot test enough people fast enough.  It's coming on line but it's months late.

IMO the average person will not be able to be vaccinated before June at best.  That maybe a ray of sunshine but reality is what it is, not what's blowing up your posterior access port.

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https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-testing

3.2 tests per 1000 people per day.  It is not clear if that is actually people or just tests.  Different countries report for different standards.

Is that enough.

https://www.ajc.com/news/nation-world/us-faces-another-shortage-of-ppe-including-masks-as-virus-surges/GOZYMR3GTRAWTMYLBZCEVCLNAU/

PPE shortages again

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On 11/16/2020 at 8:23 AM, Zackny said:

Almost as good as the 99%+ recovery rate.

We’re at over 250,000 deaths, at over a 2% death rate despite 9 months worth of efforts (at least in some places) to “flatten the curve”. So I’m not sure of your maths. I know I can’t remember a time when entire states’ hospitals and ICUs are filled to capacity and setting up field tent units. :dontknow:

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6 hours ago, maddmaxx said:

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-testing

3.2 tests per 1000 people per day.  It is not clear if that is actually people or just tests.  Different countries report for different standards.

Is that enough.

https://www.ajc.com/news/nation-world/us-faces-another-shortage-of-ppe-including-masks-as-virus-surges/GOZYMR3GTRAWTMYLBZCEVCLNAU/

PPE shortages again

I’m also hearing a lot of staff shortage issues. To the point of discussing can covid positive, mildly ill doctors and nurses work with Covid positive patients. And staff quitting due to impossible work conditions. Seems like shortages abound.

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I think a lot about how robust systems are.  People always make plans for worst case scenarios, but do they ever push past that?  Declare you can manage x, then ask how you would manage x + 10%.  Most people would deal with that and say they left some wiggle room and have a plan.  How about x + 50%.  Preposterous, we could never handle that.  2x? 10x?  What do you do when the decision makers are dead?  Chaos.

I fear we will quickly reach chaos.

Enjoy Thanksgiving with your family.  Have fun at the bar this weekend with friends.  Visit those few friends you haven't seen in a while.  You deserve it, you've suffered long enough.

Don't worry, the nurses and docs will do everything they can to keep you alive, risking their own lives for you.  While not a direct front line worker myself, I will do my best to keep my department providing the lifesaving services we offer every day.

Enjoy your party, I'll be at work trying to pick up the pieces of the carnage you left me.

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11 hours ago, Square Wheels said:

I fear we will quickly reach chaos.

"We" doesn't extend to "me".  That's generally the challenge.  I STILL hear COVID is no worse than the flu. STILL. 

In my lifetime, with the exception of 9/11 and a few single day huge localized catastrophes - mass shooting, OKC bomber, hurricanes like Sandy - I have NEVER heard of a hospital being overwhelmed or there being a need for auxiliary/mobile morgues.  In the past nine months?  It has become routine.  Think about that during your "normal" Turkey Day or you normal X-mas celebration.

3 hours ago, maddmaxx said:

For JQ public, spring or summer if everything goes fast and well.

I'll take that.  Not awful if it actually works as advertised.

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6 minutes ago, Razors Edge said:

"We" doesn't extend to "me".  That's generally the challenge.  I STILL hear COVID is no worse than the flu. STILL. 

In my lifetime, with the exception of 9/11 and a few single day huge localized catastrophes - mass shooting, OKC bomber, hurricanes like Sandy - I have NEVER heard of a hospital being overwhelmed or there being a need for auxiliary/mobile morgues.  In the past nine months?  It has become routine.  Think about that during your "normal" Turkey Day or you normal X-mas celebration.

I'll take that.  Not awful if it actually works as advertised.

That's when it becomes available to the average person, not when we will have enough vaccinated.  Get to love your mask as we probably have another year together.

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5 minutes ago, maddmaxx said:

That's when it becomes available to the average person, not when we will have enough vaccinated.  Get to love your mask as we probably have another year together.

I'm optimistic!

But, keep in mind, "John Q Public", once you factor out the old, ill, critical staff, etc.., is pretty darn close to being the bottom 25% or so of America.  Much (maybe most) of Americans now fall into the big bucket of needing vaccinations early, and the ones left - children and healthy adults - is not as big of a group as you might think.  So, hopefully, by spring and definitely summer, folks like my 76 yr old mom will have long been vaccinated, and the %age of Americans vaccinated will be in the critical 50+% zone.  If just kids and healthy adults are left, it really becomes a more manageable problem.

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A "for profit" health care system or major components thereof leads to this kind of shortage. You simply cannot build in enough excess capacity into the system and still make money.

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1 hour ago, donkpow said:

A "for profit" health care system or major components thereof leads to this kind of shortage. You simply cannot build in enough excess capacity into the system and still make money.

Politics in 3... 2...1...

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On 11/16/2020 at 7:23 AM, Zackny said:

Almost as good as the 99%+ recovery rate.

This ignores hospitalizations, durations of them, side effects, and how the recovery rate you are quoting includes populations almost barely affected, like young children. 

Depending on your age, your 'recovery rate' can be as low as 20 percent. 

Currently the case fatality rate for Covid19 (Where you go and get tested and are confirmed to have it) is 2.5%. And while increased testing is trending that 2.5% downwards, just imagine that 2.5 out of every 100 people getting this disease are dying. That's a VERY high number. Many times higher than CFR for seasonal flu, which is barely a tenth of a percent, and even then, only for elderly and other susceptible groups. Depending on who you are, by age range, etc...the CFR is a LOT higher. 

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2 hours ago, Kzoo said:

Politics in 3... 2...1...

You assume it needs to gravitate toward a political discussion. It doesn't. There are lots of options open. What you are seeing right now is the current apparent consensus.

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1 minute ago, donkpow said:

current apparent consensus.

OK help me out here.  Is it current apparent consensus?  Or is it apparent current consensus?  And how does this differ from 'the conventional thinking'?

 

So many questions, so little time.

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Kzoo said:

OK help me out here.  Is it current apparent consensus?  Or is it apparent current consensus?  And how does this differ from 'the conventional thinking'?

 

So many questions, so little time.

 

 

I'm sorry, this is drifting into the political arena. Since the election, I've been a little gun shy.

andy-griffith-show-scandals-aunt-bee-7.jpg?w=640

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3 minutes ago, donkpow said:

I'm sorry, this is drifting into the political arena. Since the election, I've been a little gun shy.

andy-griffith-show-scandals-aunt-bee-7.jpg?w=640

Hey, you started this political crap.

 

Donk.... * lights the fuse and walks away *

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Do you want to pay for it or not? That's the question. This situation is not the result of some kind of freak thing. Capacity is not built into the system. Margins are too slim.

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49 minutes ago, donkpow said:

Do you want to pay for it or not? That's the question. This situation is not the result of some kind of freak thing. Capacity is not built into the system. Margins are too slim.

Economics, not politics.

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15 hours ago, donkpow said:

Do you want to pay for it or not? That's the question. This situation is not the result of some kind of freak thing. Capacity is not built into the system. Margins are too slim.

No, I don’t want to pay for a health system that would sit at 50% occupancy for 99 years at a time, only hitting maximal capacity with a mass infectious illness once a century. I’d rather mask, distance, wash, avoid gatherings and generally stay home once in a century. Even if it takes over a year.

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2 hours ago, Prophet Zacharia said:

No, I don’t want to pay for a health system that would sit at 50% occupancy for 99 years at a time, only hitting maximal capacity with a mass infectious illness once a century. I’d rather mask, distance, wash, avoid gatherings and generally stay home once in a century. Even if it takes over a year.

Canada doesn't buy to overstock... just sayin' for a different health system.  There were a few people at beginning wondering why the govn't didn't have enough ppe, etc.  Well, why would we?   that stuff does degrade in storage over time.

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18 minutes ago, shootingstar said:

Canada doesn't buy to overstock... just sayin' for a different health system.  There were a few people at beginning wondering why the govn't didn't have enough ppe, etc.  Well, why would we?   that stuff does degrade in storage over time.

These ideas beg the question, what kind of contingency planning should be in place? I know we have plans in place for natural disasters, tornadoes, etc. A pandemic expresses consequences over much larger scales. This is something one can examine in a normal daily life. Oh sure, you have auto insurance, home owner's insurance, an emergency source of cash, etc. What plans do you have for potential major sustained life events having the effect like a pandemic? I think you probably play the odds like most people. 

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8 minutes ago, donkpow said:

These ideas beg the question, what kind of contingency planning should be in place? I know we have plans in place for natural disasters, tornadoes, etc. A pandemic expresses consequences over much larger scales. This is something one can examine in a normal daily life. Oh sure, you have auto insurance, home owner's insurance, an emergency source of cash, etc. What plans do you have for potential major sustained life events having the effect like a pandemic? I think you probably play the odds like most people. 

"Playing the odds" is the only way to operate.  The resources to cover every possibility 100% do not exist.  What needs to be added to that equation however is the flexibility to adjust to changes in the odds as they happen.  At this time that seems to be the weakness in the system.

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On 11/16/2020 at 10:36 AM, Kzoo said:

And they have military logistics people in place already working on that part.  Priority lists have already been created that starts with frontline healthcare workers, nursing care facilities, the infirm and the elderly and then on to the general population.

Wired Magazine has an interesting article saying that the above, with the exception of healthcare workers, shouldn't be the first if you want to get the pandemic over quicker. Instead you should give the vaccine to the "superspreaders" such as young people who mingle a lot and other people who are in contact with other people as part of their jobs like cashiers and cops. 

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6 minutes ago, JerrySTL said:

Wired Magazine has an interesting article saying that the above, with the exception of healthcare workers, shouldn't be the first if you want to get the pandemic over quicker. Instead you should give the vaccine to the "superspreaders" such as young people who mingle a lot and other people who are in contact with other people as part of their jobs like cashiers and cops. 

I have no doubt that wired would like their audience to be able to continue a certain lifestyle without care.

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7 minutes ago, maddmaxx said:

I have no doubt that wired would like their audience to be able to continue a certain lifestyle without care.

This is where the scientific community should weigh in. I should say communicate in an unadulterated way. Is it a better solution to prioritize vaccination of the super spreaders? Notice I don't say "protect" the super spreaders. Let's deal with the whole problem.

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5 minutes ago, maddmaxx said:

I have no doubt that wired would like their audience to be able to continue a certain lifestyle without care.

...or maybe they realize that those folks are ALREADY living and interacting in a certain way, so nip their spread ASAP so that they don't bring it to a broader audience? 

You sort of can control the spread with truly older folks and those in restricted faciilites, but it is tougher to control the folks who HAVE to be out as well as the rat bastards who are choosing to be out despite warnings and exhortations to be considerate.

It is quite possible the most vulnerable to getting and dying from COVID are NOT the most likely or even highly likely to contract COVID due to other circumstances - like precautions at nursing homes and long term care facilities and hospitals. 

I'm no fan of rewarding azzhattery - which innocullating the azzhats first seems to be - but I can't automatically say it is a bad idea or maybe even not the best idea.

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2 minutes ago, maddmaxx said:

Let the struggle for vaccinations begin.

Probably why they put it in the hands of the military to sort out :D  Guys with guns telling folks to get in line!

On the plus side, after 10 months of incompetent or haphazard handling of COVID, it still has to be nice to think that whether it is fair or unfair, a vaccination IS HERE.  More than one. And it is the beginning of the end of this COVID pandemic. 

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2 minutes ago, Razors Edge said:

Probably why they put it in the hands of the military to sort out :D  Guys with guns telling folks to get in line!

On the plus side, after 10 months of incompetent or haphazard handling of COVID, it still has to be nice to think that whether it is fair or unfair, a vaccination IS HERE.  More than one. And it is the beginning of the end of this COVID pandemic. 

Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.

 

Winston Churchill. 

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4 minutes ago, maddmaxx said:

Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.

You won't take that? The end of the beginning?  Churchill also wrote about that turning point years later, "Before Alamein we never had a victory. After Alamein we never had a defeat."

So, if this means we've hit the point where COVID is always on its back foot, then HUZZAH!

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3 minutes ago, Razors Edge said:

You won't take that? The end of the beginning?  Churchill also wrote about that turning point years later, "Before Alamein we never had a victory. After Alamein we never had a defeat."

So, if this means we've hit the point where COVID is always on its back foot, then HUZZAH!

When you see it, celebrate.  Till then it's still a fight.

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42 minutes ago, maddmaxx said:

Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.

 

Winston Churchill. 

More rays of sunshine...

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53 minutes ago, Kzoo said:

More rays of sunshine...

Just a lack of fake rose colored glasses.  We done it wrong and now lots of people will die for no good reason.

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18 minutes ago, maddmaxx said:

We done it wrong and now lots of people will die for no good reason.

...but fewer now that vaccines are on the way.  It's hard to believe a vaccine is being considered "rose colored".  It is sort of the ONLY route to normalcy since we did such a poor job containing it to begin with.

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20 minutes ago, Razors Edge said:

...but fewer now that vaccines are on the way.  It's hard to believe a vaccine is being considered "rose colored".  It is sort of the ONLY route to normalcy since we did such a poor job containing it to begin with.

The vaccine itself isn't rose colored.  The concept that the emergency is over because is rose colored.  Even with a vaccine we are in this for another year at least.  They don't even know yet how long the vaccine is good for.  You and the rest of us are now lab rats.

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1 minute ago, maddmaxx said:

The vaccine itself isn't rose colored.  The concept that the emergency is over because is rose colored.  Even with a vaccine we are in this for another year at least.  They don't even know yet how long the vaccine is good for.  You and the rest of us are now lab rats.

Oddly, no one in this thread stated or implied "emergency is over".  Not sure where you're getting your misreading on the other posts in here.

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8 minutes ago, Razors Edge said:

Oddly, no one in this thread stated or implied "emergency is over".  Not sure where you're getting your misreading on the other posts in here.

I'm tired of having smoke blown up my ass about Covid 19.  

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57 minutes ago, maddmaxx said:

I'm tired of having smoke blown up my ass about Covid 19.  

I think this is probably what has left us with the feeling the we have "done it wrong". We didn't do 'it' wrong. We were mislead. And that's not just at the feet of the politicians, that's with anyone with unstated interest in leading people one way or another. You want followers, you want readers, you want higher ratings, you want anything other than solving these problems, you are guilty of killing people.

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5 hours ago, maddmaxx said:

"Playing the odds" is the only way to operate.  The resources to cover every possibility 100% do not exist.  What needs to be added to that equation however is the flexibility to adjust to changes in the odds as they happen.  At this time that seems to be the weakness in the system.

In my comment earlier, I was only repeating what was repeated in the press what the federal govn't did not have overstock in certain areas. I'm not convinced anyone expected it nor the scale of the situation at all.  Nor am I blaming them for a "weakness" when we must be realistic about the probabilities.

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2 hours ago, shootingstar said:

In my comment earlier, I was only repeating what was repeated in the press what the federal govn't did not have overstock in certain areas. I'm not convinced anyone expected it nor the scale of the situation at all.  Nor am I blaming them for a "weakness" when we must be realistic about the probabilities.

Yes, I know. The question is how should people deal with an emergency of this size. It's easy to say that the government should provide the backstop or that the existing system is at fault for failing to provide the infrastructure to cope with this type of thing. As far as I am concerned, the existing system can handle the load. All these medical professionals could be conscripted to apply their knowledge and beat this thing. I don't care what they specialize in, let them change bed pans. The for profit institutions rent space to practitioners. Take it away and use it for required services. People aren't thinking about solving the problems, they are thinking about how can they can continue with their own little plan and make a crapton of cash off of it.

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