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Covid numbers


dinneR

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Covid numbers are dropping fast. What gives? Anyone know why?

We went from purple to red to orange and now yellow pretty quickly. It's not like people just started following protocols recently. There have not been any big holidays like Thanksgiving and Christmas so that people gather, but that alone cannot explain this drop.

Vaccinations are still pretty low.

Have we turned a corner?

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1 hour ago, dennis said:

Covid numbers are dropping fast. What gives? Anyone know why?

My guess...     We are getting close to herd immunity .

All of those gatherings / 4th of July / Thanksgiving / Christmas / Holiday / Super Bowl / etc...  did spread the virus.  

Plus the possibility that  early in 2020 the number of COVID cases may have been way under counted.  Not much testing back then... 

Plus people are now getting vaccinated. 

Plus T-cell immunity  that some people may have, that was unknown.

 

Or... we are just lucky???  

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5 hours ago, dennis said:

Covid numbers are dropping fast. What gives? Anyone know why?

We went from purple to red to orange and now yellow pretty quickly. It's not like people just started following protocols recently. There have not been any big holidays like Thanksgiving and Christmas so that people gather, but that alone cannot explain this drop.

Vaccinations are still pretty low.

Have we turned a corner?

No.  We have still not returned to the quiet days of last year before the huge spikes.  We're just coming down the backside of an enormous spike created by the holidays and folks are taking the drop for more than it is.

If gasoline prices go up by a dollar a gallon and then come down 50 cents do you feel good about it being the end of the problem.

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3 hours ago, Longjohn said:

The numbers are dropping because the election is over.

Here in Michigan, we are about where we were late summer to late October, well before the election.  I don't see the correlation with the election.  The spike seems to relate more to Thanksgiving and Christmas.  We're still well above where we where in late June. 

 

Capture.PNG.b74f90fac747aaedfb0d81d26fdd0e61.PNG

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10 hours ago, dennis said:

Covid numbers are dropping fast. What gives? Anyone know why?

We went from purple to red to orange and now yellow pretty quickly. It's not like people just started following protocols recently. There have not been any big holidays like Thanksgiving and Christmas so that people gather, but that alone cannot explain this drop.

Vaccinations are still pretty low.

Have we turned a corner?

One recent news article reports some epidemiologists think that up to 1/3 of the USA has already had COVID - many without symptoms or mild, unreported symptoms - so that some degree of herd immunity is being reached.

There has also been a reported uptick in the %age of people wearing masks as almost everyone now knows someone who died of COVID and are taking it more seriously.

Maryland, which has had one of the highest mask-wearing rates, 98%+, since Thanksgiving and the popularity of our GOP Governor's "Wear the damn masks" commercials, used to have 1/3 to 1/4 as many cases/capita as the USA avg.  But today it's 976, equivalent to 49,000 nationwide, and the nationwide 7-day average is 66,731, so it's clear the rest of the country is catching up and must be doing something it wasn't doing before: that's probably more mask usage.

I hope enough people get vaccinated to let things return to normal this year: our family's planning New Year's at Las Vegas if possible.

And I hope the durability of the vaccines, shown to be at least 8 months and perhaps several years (resistance to the similar SARS-2002 virus lasted that long), does last for several years.

 

 

 

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12 minutes ago, MickinMD said:

One recent news article reports some epidemiologists think that up to 1/3 of the USA has already had COVID

I hear this stuff and I think "What a pile of crap."  Not that I don't believe it could be true, but scientists don't 'think'... they study.  11 months ago the available antigen tests were for crap.  Now they have it down.  All they have to do is draw blood from the correct randomly selected parts of the population and analyze the results.  And then report them.

Instead, talking heads say things like "scientists think that...."

 

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I don't see anything here that fully explains the drop.  Locally, schools have been in person all school year. People who believe in masks wear them, others still don't. Behavior has not changed. We are at 15% vaccinated with the first shot. The standards for a positive test have not changed. Last week our hospital announced they had zero patients with covid. 

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2 minutes ago, Kzoo said:

I hear this stuff and I think "What a pile of crap."  Not that I don't believe it could be true, but scientists don't 'think'... they study.  11 months ago the available antigen tests were for crap.  Now they have it down.  All they have to do is draw blood from the correct randomly selected parts of the population and analyze the results.  And then report them.

Instead, talking heads say things like "scientists think that...."

 

It's not really scientists that think that.  It's the internet.

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2 minutes ago, dennis said:

I don't see anything here that fully explains the drop.  Locally, schools have been in person all school year. People who believe in masks wear them, others still don't. Behavior has not changed. We are at 15% vaccinated with the first shot. The standards for a positive test have not changed. Last week our hospital announced they had zero patients with covid. 

How many folks had Thanksgiving dinner and or Christmas with extended families, or met later with other people who did?

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Here are our numbers.  This is seven day averages of new cases.  You could lay this over @Mr. Silly's daily new case count above.

image.png.3f4247ebb1cbf1d6e42d0e010e6ff17f.png

The first peak was April 8th.  The High point was November 20th.  The little climb right after that was December 1st.  Was the Dec 1st number the Thanksgiving "spike" - Maybe but not much of a spike.  The third real jump was Jan 10th.  That looks like a holiday spike.  Immediately, the concern is that both nationwide and in Michigan (as you can see on the chart) the numbers appear to be leveling off.  Had the recent decline in new cases ended?

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A half a million people in the US have died while having Covid19. They can't get infected again. I'm not joking here.

Many millions more have gotten Covid19 and may have some immunity plus they might have learnt a lesson or two about how NOT to catch it again. 

Others have learned the lessons without getting Covid19 in the first place. They started social distancing and wearing masks during the uptick in cases.

The shots are starting to help.

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The Hoopleheads at work did not believe it was a real thing. The virus went through the mill like Vikings vs Mennonites. There was a big spike, some deaths', the hooples agree now that it is real, but still don't follow the rules. I think the mill workers have reached herd immunity, anyone there who was going to catch it, did.

The numbers are way down now, the company doesn't announce anything but I don't know of anyone on quarantine any more.  

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This is a good article.

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/02/26/969175478/u-s-coronavirus-infections-are-way-down-can-we-keep-them-that-way

With coronavirus infections on a steady, six weeks long descent in the U.S., it's clear the worst days of the brutal winter surge have waned. Yet researchers are still not sure how sustainable the decline is. And a small but concerning uptick in cases in the last three days has health officials on edge.

So what caused the massive decline since January, and what can the U.S. do to ensure that it lasts?

New infections have fallen close to 70% nationwide in just over six weeks, bringing the average number of cases to levels last seen in early fall.

The number of people hospitalized for COVID-19 has plummeted by nearly 60% since the peak in January. The rate of tests coming back positive in the U.S. is far below what it was during the January peak, down from over 13% to now less than 5%.

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