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denniS
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The value of my car has increased since I bought it. I've never seen a car's value increase. I'm not talking about collectable or rare cars. It's a 2017 Subaru Crosstrek. Nothing fancy at all. 

I ran the value through KBB before I bought it. I just ran it through KBB again and the value has increased by about $3k in less than a year with some extra miles on it.

On my way home from the grocery store today, I noticed the Subaru dealer's lot was about half full. It used to be packed so tight, you could not find a parking spot. 

I know the pandemic has put a pinch on manufacturing, but this struck me as a little crazy.

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6 minutes ago, denniS said:

I know the pandemic has put a pinch on manufacturing, but this struck me as a little crazy.

I was thinking about replacing my 2010 Subaru Forester.    Then you see articles like this;

This article even suggests 'possibly' these higher prices ($10K to $20K above MSRP) could possibly be the 'new normal'.  :(  https://www.torquenews.com/1083/dealer-markups-10k-20k-now-common-due-car-shortage-here-s-why

https://www.theverge.com/2021/5/7/22423479/semiconductor-shortage-new-car-truck-prices-sales

https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a36342329/new-cars-expensive-prices/

So now the plan is to just keep the old Forester for a while more.  

I had the timing belt replaced, new tires, new rear brakes, now I'm good for a few more years.  All of that a a fraction of the cost of a new car.

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The LBS says that people are bringing in junk box store bikes and spending $200 on them because nobody can get new bikes. When I looked into a new 520 they said it won’t be available until September 2022. The owner of the LBS showed me projected delivery dates on bikes he sold well into 2023. He said repairs are the only thing keeping him in business.

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2 minutes ago, Longjohn said:

The LBS says that people are bringing in junk box store bikes and spending $200 on them because nobody can get new bikes. When I looked into a new 520 they said it won’t be available until September 2022. The owner of the LBS showed me projected delivery dates on bikes he sold well into 2023. He said repairs are the only thing keeping him in business.

I was looking at new bikes and that's what they were telling me.  I already own two bikes -- I don't need a third afterall.

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1 minute ago, Dottles said:

I was looking at new bikes and that's what they were telling me.  I already own two bikes -- I don't need a third afterall.

You could still get a Lynskey. They told me it would take eight weeks but I’m special and got mine in two weeks. Built in Tennessee.

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Wow is right,  My dad's Avalon has jumped about $3000.  Normally I'd be happy for him but since he's on the medicaid spend down, that means I have to buy it from him at the inflated price if I want it.  SOB.

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Just now, Longjohn said:

Better keep the cars you have now.

Yeah... WoBG and I have 3.    That's  our plan. 

Her 1997 Honda Prelude, which she won't sell.   It's in near perfect condition.

The 2010 Subaru Forester, WoBG's winter car, the dog carrying car, and it hauls anything else we want, including a trailer (3000# or less).  

And my 2016 Toyota Prius.     Now that gas is getting expensive again... I'm glad I still have that car.  

 

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Just now, Bikeguy said:

Now that gas is getting expensive again... I'm glad I still have that car.  

 

I often needed to take Uber rides a year ago.  Many of the drivers were driving old 199x Priuses and they had over 300,000 miles on them and getting nearly 50 mpg on them. When your car reaches 200,000 miles, let me know and I'll buy it from you.

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Yesterday, I rode with a LBS manager. He said they have six bikes in stock. That's it. They can't get parts. He said they will stop selling brake pads unless you are having your bike serviced by them.

He did say inventory trickles in, so you tell them what you want and they call you when it arrives. They never know when the bikes will come. He's waiting for a bike for himself, but he doesn't expect it until the fall or winter.

He's been told by the bike companies that this will last into 2023. 

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I haven’t really looked but from what I understand the chip shortage has slowed and in some cases stopped new car manufacturing so used car values are going up.  

About a year ago car dealers were practically  giving  them away, not so much now. 

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13 minutes ago, denniS said:

He's been told by the bike companies that this will last into 2023. 

Eeeek.

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9 minutes ago, Dottles said:

When your car reaches 200,000 miles, let me know and I'll buy it from you.

My 2005 Pruis had 260,815 miles on it back on 5/20/16.  The plan was for me to retire then.  I was going to just keep using that car.  I was 2 weeks from retirement (forms signed etc...) then I got an offer I couldn't refuse.  I soon was unretired...  and I purchased the 2016 Prius for my commute and on the job driving.  The 2016 Prius now has 69,000 miles on it.   It will be a LOOOOONG time before it had 200,000 miles.   

That said... yeah we will talk when the car has 200,000 miles.  

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I got lucky they had a bike I was interested in when I was shopping.  They did have a ton of bike in the shop in January.  I'll be bringing it in for service soon, I'll see if there are any left.  They had at least 50 on the floor, maybe more.

As for my car, it will be 2 in June.  I have 30k on it now.  I will keep it until I have my first major repair and it bankrupts me.  Still worth a lot.

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1 minute ago, Square Wheels said:

As for my car, it will be 2 in June.  I have 30k on it now.  I will keep it until I have my first major repair and it bankrupts me.  Still worth a lot.

At least your car should be more reliable than my 1999 Land Rover.  After the warranty expired, I got to pay the LR tax (repairs were expensive) each year.  After 11 years...  I learned, and traded it for my Subaru.   I guess I'm a slow learner...  

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1 hour ago, Bikeguy said:

At least your car should be more reliable than my 1999 Land Rover.  After the warranty expired, I got to pay the LR tax (repairs were expensive) each year.  After 11 years...  I learned, and traded it for my Subaru.   I guess I'm a slow learner...  

So far so good.  I don't think today's BMW is as unreliable as they used to be.

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4 hours ago, ChrisL said:

I haven’t really looked but from what I understand the chip shortage has slowed and in some cases stopped new car manufacturing so used car values are going up.  

About a year ago car dealers were practically  giving  them away, not so much now. 

We have a dead mall parking lot full of new cars. Don’t know what the story is on them.

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While I planned to trade the Mini now that is out of warranty with 54000 miles, to something that can 4 down tow behind an RV.. (Probably Ford Escape Hybrid, or Chevy Equinox or New Trailblazer) But can't get new RV's with production delays and Ford E350/450 and Transit cabs sidelined with chip shortage. No problem until my trip back home from CT, on the final leg within 10 miles of my house. Felt a shudder and message "Drivetrain malfunction, continue driving conservatively home and bring to service center." Limped home, shutting it down and later driving showed no problem. Next day at Mini, service advised need to bring in when showing because shutdown resets and clears error code. 

Putting purchase off, but drivetrain issue out of warranty concerns me. Not a good time to buy as they have 1) no inventory back supply, and consequently 2) no deals to move existing supply. Doubt that news article linked earlier that "high prices the new normal." It does become a time of critical timing though, to catch the used prices for trade-in before they collapse as new supply strengthens. Ford estimating chip supply issue significantly improving in 3rd quarter, and almost to normal in 4th quarter or first of year. Now here is the key...they have the vehicles 99% complete awaiting chips, stored on acres of lots around he factories. It is not a matter of cranking up the assembly line and adding shifts to build inventory supply. Rather, it is waves of steel waiting to be delivered after modules inserted and final testing. That is a lot of metal dealers will have to move with more coming in the pipeline. Manufacturer incentives will return and prices will drop.

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11 minutes ago, Tizeye said:

Next day at Mini, service advised need to bring in when showing because shutdown resets and clears error code. 

So.. codes are not stored until a manual reset?  That sucks...  

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3 minutes ago, Bikeguy said:

So.. codes are not stored until a manual reset?  That sucks...  

Yep, was a surprise to me. I had to have the service manager confirm that I heard him correctly.

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8 hours ago, denniS said:

The value of my car has increased since I bought it. I've never seen a car's value increase. I'm not talking about collectable or rare cars. It's a 2017 Subaru Crosstrek. Nothing fancy at all. 

I ran the value through KBB before I bought it. I just ran it through KBB again and the value has increased by about $3k in less than a year with some extra miles on it.

On my way home from the grocery store today, I noticed the Subaru dealer's lot was about half full. It used to be packed so tight, you could not find a parking spot. 

I know the pandemic has put a pinch on manufacturing, but this struck me as a little crazy.

I can't imagine my cars have appreciated. They have likely hit their low point and will just stick to that level in perpetuity.  In VA, we have personal property tax on cars, and that has held pretty steady for several years.  Maybe inching down a couple dollars each yer, but nothing dramatic up or down.

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5 minutes ago, Razors Edge said:

I can't imagine my cars have appreciated. They have likely hit their low point and will just stick to that level in perpetuity.  In VA, we have personal property tax on cars, and that has held pretty steady for several years.  Maybe inching down a couple dollars each yer, but nothing dramatic up or down.

I think it's related to the mileage. I drove 6k and the value increased $3k. If I drive another 10k I should see the value increase $5k.

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7 minutes ago, denniS said:

I think it's related to the mileage. I drove 6k and the value increased $3k. If I drive another 10k I should see the value increase $5k.

Last year was far more bike miles than car miles, but I still doubt the car value went up.  If I got $5k in trade in for a 2003 Accord, I'd be ecstatic!

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6 hours ago, Prophet Zacharia said:

If you want a laugh, price a rental car these days. In Hawaii, people are renting U-Hauls for a week at $29 a day and saving a ton (and actually getting a rental). Lots of rental companies sold off big fleets of cars during Covid.

I saw that on the news, so I just ran a local test. For background, I found it cheaper for the 1 day rental (+$1 bus ticket) x2 cheaper than taxi + tip ($50) x2, or off-site airport parking if over 8 days. Previously, I could rent a car the day prior to departure for around $29-35, and repeat upon return arrival, walking across street from baggage claim (rentals are on airport so no shuttle bus to off-site rentals in Orlando). 

With that in mind, a one day rental (half the total requirement) an Economy (Kia Rio) is $85, Midsize/Standard is $91-$99 (Corolla, Jetta, Cruze, etc), Premium/Fullsize is $91-$110 (Camry, Passat, Malibu, Regal) and SUV/Minivan is $150-$200 (Equinox, Edge, Voyager, MX-5). That is clearly no longer an option and I wouldn't trust the bus with it's $1 fare to coordinate with flight times. What is normally a 20 minute trip to airport becomes 1 hour (plus wait time) with a transfer (wait again or hussle down and across the street), wearing you out just getting to the airport with luggage in tow.

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Last year, I suggested to Wo2 that we replace the 10 yo, 150k mile van with something new/newer as she only drives 3k per year, I'm ~5 years from retirement, and this vehicle might be the last one we ever buy. Nah, she doesn't want a car payment. Flash forward to now & she's complaining about new/used car prices.

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When I bought my Honda Fit in 2013, I wanted to buy a 2 or more year-old one with 40K miles or less.  But the fit has been Consumer Reports best-bang-for-the-buck car for 4 years straight and one of its "Most fun to drive cars" and the used car prices were within $1000 of the $18,000 I paid (no trade-in) for a new, base-automatic 2013 Honda Fit.

Right now, the Kelley Trade-In calculator says my car's trade-in value is $7.902 to $9.669.

So the depreciation is running about $1000/yr, which is expected.  I expect there won't be much trade-in value when I get what is likely my last car as I approach 80 in 2030. I hope self-parking or serious park-assist and various other safety features are standard then.

They don't make the Fit anymore - the slightly bigger Honda HRV or CRV are possibilities but I don't stick to one brand.

 

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On 5/23/2021 at 3:21 PM, denniS said:

The value of my car has increased since I bought it. I've never seen a car's value increase. I'm not talking about collectable or rare cars. It's a 2017 Subaru Crosstrek. Nothing fancy at all. 

I ran the value through KBB before I bought it. I just ran it through KBB again and the value has increased by about $3k in less than a year with some extra miles on it.

On my way home from the grocery store today, I noticed the Subaru dealer's lot was about half full. It used to be packed so tight, you could not find a parking spot. 

I know the pandemic has put a pinch on manufacturing, but this struck me as a little crazy.

Maybe it is time to sell your car and trade down for a while.  Making a profit on a 4 year old car is almost too good to pass up.

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1 hour ago, Randomguy said:

Maybe it is time to sell your car and trade down for a while.  Making a profit on a 4 year old car is almost too good to pass up.

I just bought it used in July. I haven't even driven it a year, puked in it, dented or anything. I need to brake it in first.

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22 hours ago, Tizeye said:

With that in mind, a one day rental

I reserved a car for a December vacation. 3X more expensive than last year (when there was zero demand), 30% higher than two years ago during “normal” conditions.

I am hoping that rental car inventory will increase this summer and my cost will drop, but only time will tell.

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Ford has built many new trucks that are sitting because they are missing "chips" for the computers.  There are tons of parking lots around here with brand new ford super duties just sitting there.  Thousands and thousands of trucks.  

The used truck market is outside of it's mind right now.  The white f350 that I bought recently could prob net me a 10K profit if I would wait for the right buyer.  

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Car sales lots around here are all half empty. Most are advertising that they'll buy your used car on the spot. I drove though a dealer (just looking) on the way to the garden center this weekend and the sales guys were looking at my truck like a pack of wolves stalking prey. Part of me wants to stop and see what they'll offer, but replacing it with a new one would still cost over $40,000, at least.

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8 minutes ago, team scooter said:

Car sales lots around here are all half empty. Most are advertising that they'll buy your used car on the spot. I drove though a dealer (just looking) on the way to the garden center this weekend and the sales guys were looking at my truck like a pack of wolves stalking prey. Part of me wants to stop and see what they'll offer, but replacing it with a new one would still cost over $40,000, at least.

That's the rub.  I could really make some good cash selling both of my trucks right now.  But then I would have to get another one.  That would hurt!

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15 minutes ago, Parr8hed said:

That's the rub.  I could really make some good cash selling both of my trucks right now.  But then I would have to get another one.  That would hurt!

We're not ready now, but, next year we do plan to buy Mrs a new CX 30 or 5. And we already know we'll pay close to sticker price because they're selling like hotcakes. We'll see how long this car shortage lasts, but maybe we should look into it now. Or at least sell my beloved truck while ITS hot.

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2 hours ago, team scooter said:

Car sales lots around here are all half empty. Most are advertising that they'll buy your used car on the spot. I drove though a dealer (just looking) on the way to the garden center this weekend and the sales guys were looking at my truck like a pack of wolves stalking prey. Part of me wants to stop and see what they'll offer, but replacing it with a new one would still cost over $40,000, at least.

The road facing lots seem plenty full, but I wonder about the back lots and how packed they are.  I normally ride past a local Jeep/Dodge truck strorage lot (and a Hyundai one as well), and it was always fun to see the inventory change through the year, but it was usually fairly full.  I haven't been past it in several months, but that would be a good gauge for my local inventory back home.  I don't get the "limited" inventory thing (I do get the parts bottleneck part of it) as when I look over local inventory on the web, I see, for example, 68 F-150 XLT 4x4 w/ the hybrid or regular 3.5 engine.  100s of F-150s across the full engine line-up.   If I wanted a truck tomorrow, I still have too many to choose from :(

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42 minutes ago, Razors Edge said:

The road facing lots seem plenty full, but I wonder about the back lots and how packed they are.  I normally ride past a local Jeep/Dodge truck strorage lot (and a Hyundai one as well), and it was always fun to see the inventory change through the year, but it was usually fairly full.  I haven't been past it in several months, but that would be a good gauge for my local inventory back home.  I don't get the "limited" inventory thing (I do get the parts bottleneck part of it) as when I look over local inventory on the web, I see, for example, 68 F-150 XLT 4x4 w/ the hybrid or regular 3.5 engine.  100s of F-150s across the full engine line-up.   If I wanted a truck tomorrow, I still have too many to choose from :(

I believe Ford said they would make 1mil fewer cars this year and still be profitable. They are making the high models and sell them at full MSRP. 

I checked my local Subaru dealer and they have two Imprezas $23-25k. A year ago those were $18k. Same with the Crosstrek. $28-32k. Last year you could get a new one for $22k

Bikes are kind of the same. I was in a LBS and they have limited inventory, but it's mostly $5k and up mtbs. Nothing under $3k.

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3 hours ago, team scooter said:

We're not ready now, but, next year we do plan to buy Mrs a new CX 30 or 5. And we already know we'll pay close to sticker price because they're selling like hotcakes. We'll see how long this car shortage lasts, but maybe we should look into it now. Or at least sell my beloved truck while ITS hot.

I love the new avatar!

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1 minute ago, denniS said:

I believe Ford said they would make 1mil fewer cars this year and still be profitable. They are making the high models and sell them at full MSRP. 

I checked my local Subaru dealer and they have two Imprezas $23-25k. A year ago those were $18k. Same with the Crosstrek. $28-32k. Last year you could get a new one for $22k

Bikes are kind of the same. I was in a LBS and they have limited inventory, but it's mostly $5k and up mtbs. Nothing under $3k.

Yeah - that was my guess. A car or truck "shortage" is as much about a pricing issue rather than an availability issue?  Like the rental cars or housing, businesses just adjust the price up up up (or down down down) until supply roughly equals demand. 

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1 minute ago, Razors Edge said:

Yeah - that was my guess. A car or truck "shortage" is as much about a pricing issue rather than an availability issue?  Like the rental cars or housing, businesses just adjust the price up up up (or down down down) until supply roughly equals demand. 

At least with cars or bikes, supply will eventually catch up. Housing cannot catch up here. 

Our town had an opportunity to develop a ranch and the family was planning to donate 40 lots to Habitat. The deal fell apart and we will be getting 60-70 McMansions that no local can afford. 

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3 minutes ago, denniS said:

At least with cars or bikes, supply will eventually catch up. Housing cannot catch up here. 

Our town had an opportunity to develop a ranch and the family was planning to donate 40 lots to Habitat. The deal fell apart and we will be getting 60-70 McMansions that no local can afford. 

Nah, a housing downturn like we have had in the past, can reset things for a period.  Affordable housing is NEVER going to be ahead of the game.  Too many different things need to fall into place for that to happen in the places that most need it.  At best, you get a small portion of affordable stock built into newer developments, but that's never going to be enough.  It still comes back to supply and demand affecting the prices, and likewise, with housing or car, profit margins.  Why build a lot of little homes with small margins when you can build a few larger homes with far greater margins? Same with loaded SUVs vs stock econo-cars. 

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