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COVID growth worrisome


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The officials at the CDC and other experts are saying the increase in COVID case and death rates in the USA is due to the Delta Variant and States with low vaccination rates.

Then why are they growing in Maryland, where 98.1% of people 65 and over have been vaccinated as have 70.9% of those 18-64 and 17.9% of those under 18?

The daily case rate in Maryland fell to 0.90% per 100,000 people on 6/25 but is 1.49% now.  Total COVID hospital beds were 97 on 7/2 and are 122 now. Those numbers are around 1/4 the national per capita avg., but they're still growing!  Daily deaths have only been 0 to 2 per day since late June - at least those have been concentrated more in the low-vaxx States.

Nationwide, Nationwide, the rolling 7-day avg. daily cases reached a low of 11,351 in June and are now 21,287.  Daily deaths fell to a rolling daily avg. of 213 and is now 228.

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1 minute ago, MickinMD said:

and 17.9% of those under 18?

 

There

 

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No shit.  

Oh noes, we just have to open up the nation and give everyone the idea that this is over.

Just think, there may be something out there lurking that's worse then delta.  Don't worry, there are enough un-vaccinated folks to make sure that we find it.  That's what happens when you provide bodies for mutations to be created.

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43 minutes ago, MickinMD said:

COVID growth worrisome

Define "worrisome". 

I think the CDC might be worried it just provides further potential for mutations - more deadly and/or potentially more able to get around vaccination protections - but the folks most at risk don't seem real worried to me.

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1 minute ago, Razors Edge said:

Define "worrisome". 

I think the CDC might be worried it just provides further potential for mutations - more deadly and/or potentially more able to get around vaccination protections - but the folks most at risk don't seem real worried to me.

Alfred E Neuman comes to mind here.

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Ah, we will have some proper mutations for a while now.  I don't go out that much, bang the same chick, and don't mix in crowds, plus I have been Moderna-vaccinated.  I will just get boosters and probably will be ok.

Anyway, for the unvaccinated head-in-the-sand types, this one never gets old:

 

Already-understaffed stores trying to keep it together rn:: sherwinwilliams

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I'm sweating it out with planned flight to Switzerland Wed, Jul 21. Being fully vaccinated, no testing or quarantine required - just a status/seat location form for contact tracing - for either Belgium connecting flight or Switzerland. However, Belgium updated Sundays with application of change on Wednesdays...so will be on pins and needles looking for updates. Do have a testing appointment with CVS for Monday that could cancel if don't need it - and is a tough call since free to take anyway...but what if returns a false positive. Coming back is the killer...and not free. By CDC requirement, everyone boarding plane on international flights to the US must be tested, including those who are fully vaccinated.  No wonder international tourist haven't fully returned United has a link where can order a kit to take with you, then a virtual appointment three days prior to return witnessing self application and indicator change. The alternative is receiving the test at the Geneva airport for about the same $150 each person.

Just had our County weekly update with the mayor and health dept director notably frustrated as the Governor ties their hands preventing local actions/rules and even overrode fines accessed against businesses for non-compliance with masks and crowds. Over the week, the infection rate rose from 4% to 6%, and while they anticipated it, were really dejected in their voice as everyone knew they were powerless. This only heightens my concern of what Belgium does on Sunday as they consider the increase in the US.

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“Worry in one hand.  Poop in the other.  See which one fills up first.”

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27 minutes ago, Dottles said:

Mick, I miss your bell curves of optimism!

It's difficult to be optimistic when we continue to do the same thing expecting different results.

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You think it is bad now? Just wait until cooler temps and the typical "flu" season combined with the relaxed constraints on social gathering.

 

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1 hour ago, Tizeye said:

You think it is bad now? Just wait until cooler temps and the typical "flu" season combined with the relaxed constraints on social gathering.

 

I'd say just continue to avoid states like Mississippi and its neighbors.  At least @denniS Wyoming is sparsely populated, and where it is denser - Jackson area - it is also much more vaccinated.  People of education and wealth are generally safe to be around, folks lacking means and/or remaining ignorant are obviously the ones to avoid.  In general, yes, the Thanksgiving and then x-mas holidays will prove to be a challenge in those areas behind the curve on vaccinations :( but it will likely remain their decision to make.

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More like expected than worrisome. When half the country refuses to vaccinate for ideological reasons this result is expected. It’s going to get worse before it gets better.

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3 hours ago, Razors Edge said:

I'd say just continue to avoid states like Mississippi and its neighbors.  At least @denniS Wyoming is sparsely populated, and where it is denser - Jackson area - it is also much more vaccinated.  People of education and wealth are generally safe to be around, folks lacking means and/or remaining ignorant are obviously the ones to avoid.  In general, yes, the Thanksgiving and then x-mas holidays will prove to be a challenge in those areas behind the curve on vaccinations :( but it will likely remain their decision to make.

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WY has one of the lowest vaccination rates, but Teton county is almost 80% one dose and more than 50% fully vaccinated. The tourists are a wildcard. 

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Just now, denniS said:

WY has one of the lowest vaccination rates, but Teton county is almost 80% one dose and more than 50% fully vaccinated. The tourists are a wildcard. 

Exactly.  Wealth and education = vaccinated.  Less $$$ and definitely more ignorant = lower rates.  Luckily, your tourists are often well-heeled too, so you have that bit of buffer.

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Just now, Razors Edge said:

Exactly.  Wealth and education = vaccinated.  Less $$$ and definitely more ignorant = lower rates.  Luckily, your tourists are often well-heeled too, so you have that bit of buffer.

I might disagree on the tourists. Too many are feeding the animals, getting too close to bison and moose. Lots of stupid behavior. My GF told a woman she was too close to the bison. The lady snapped "if they were dangerous, there would be a fence." It's not a zoo, it's a National Park. 

 

0519201742a.jpg

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Just now, denniS said:

I might disagree on the tourists. Too many are feeding the animals, getting too close to bison and moose. Lots of stupid behavior. My GF told a woman she was too close to the bison. The lady snapped "if they were dangerous, there would be a fence." It's not a zoo, it's a National Park. 

 

0519201742a.jpg

Texans are everywhere.  Just avoid the Texans!

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I think some people hold an expectation that if enough people get vaccinated it will be possible to stamp covid out - or at least relegate it into insignificance -   simply because it won't have any place to flourish.

I don't believe that's a reasonable expectation even if the entire population were vaccinated given the mutations and variants we've seen so far.  As with the flu, the covid virus will continue to mutate with some years being worse than others.  Variants with sufficiently harmful mutations will become prevalent enough that, like the flu shot, an annual booster or updated vaccine will become standard fare. 

I would hazard that the covid booster or updated vaccine will eventually be incorporated into the annual flu shot most people get anyway.  Along with that I'd hazard that the booster/update would have about the same success rate that we see in the annual flu shot too - some years pretty good and other years not much success at all.

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42 minutes ago, Thaddeus Kosciuszko said:

As with the flu, the covid virus will continue to mutate with some years being worse than others.  Variants with sufficiently harmful mutations will become prevalent enough that, like the flu shot, an annual booster or updated vaccine will become standard fare. 

I'm with you.  I don't think there's much doubt about this.  Go get your covid shot w/ your flu shot.  If average global temperatures continue to rise -- and hold -- then this might become a new thing.  I expect to other viruses and mutants appear.  In other words, this may become a new standard of life for our offspring.  But I digress, I have no offspring.

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This flies in the face of the statistics that show that almost all of the increase in Covid cases in recent weeks are among the un-vaccinated. 

 

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I was feeling ok going maskless at a few stores..but decided yesterday I am back to wearing a mask indoors

Coworker..who has unvaccinated young kids..had a covid test on Friday..while he was off (head of maintenance) he was put on lysinapral..and developed a cough...

Who knows...I just know we are going to have a new normal....and I am gonna be cautious. 

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On 7/13/2021 at 9:23 PM, Dottles said:
On 7/13/2021 at 8:38 PM, Thaddeus Kosciuszko said:

As with the flu, the covid virus will continue to mutate with some years being worse than others.  Variants with sufficiently harmful mutations will become prevalent enough that, like the flu shot, an annual booster or updated vaccine will become standard fare. 

I'm with you.  I don't think there's much doubt about this.  Go get your covid shot w/ your flu shot

So if there will be annual vaccines, the effeteness probably will be low, based on what mutation has happened.  That's assuming a vaccine will still work for a mutation.  The next mutation... the vaccine may (or may not) be effective at all. 

The track record for effectiveness for flu shots is rather low.   Why would the effectiveness against future mutations be any better??

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On 7/14/2021 at 3:13 AM, maddmaxx said:

the statistics that show that almost all of the increase in Covid cases in recent weeks are among the un-vaccinated. 

So then more people will be immune to the virus in a few months.  

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3 hours ago, Bikeguy said:

So if there will be annual vaccines, the effeteness probably will be low, based on what mutation has happened.  That's assuming a vaccine will still work for a mutation.  The next mutation... the vaccine may (or may not) be effective at all. 

The track record for effectiveness for flu shots is rather low.   Why would the effectiveness against future mutations be any better??

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Oh I have no preconceived notions about eradication. it's here to stay.

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6 hours ago, Bikeguy said:

So then more people will be immune to the virus in a few months.  

There is absolutely no scientific evidence that having covid makes one immune in the future.  There are numerous cases of second time around already in the books.  

Somehow this has become some sort of mantra involving wishing instead of science.

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3 hours ago, maddmaxx said:

There is absolutely no scientific evidence that having covid makes one immune in the future.  There are numerous cases of second time around already in the books.  

Somehow this has become some sort of mantra involving wishing instead of science.

Uh, folks who have had COVID do indeed develop antibodies and have very similar "immunity" (NO ONE IS IMMUNE, EVER) to a vaccination.  It's in the 6+ months or more range. 

Folks who are vaxxed can get COVID and get sick.  Folks who had COVID can get it again and get sick.  Both the vax (best option) and having had COVID (less fun option) will lead to some level of long term protection and a degree of partial immunity that is a HUGE benefit to fighting and surviving COVID.

If we're tripped up on the word immune, then nothing is useful.  The first highlight is the way we are using "immune", not the second more restrictive one:

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12 hours ago, Square Wheels said:

A coworker and friend went to Disney with her family.

Her 2 year old and my friend came home with Covid as a souvenir. 

I just talked with her.  She's back at work after missing two weeks.

She went down with a lot of family, there were about 20 of them staying in a house.

1/2 of them tested positive for Covid.

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7 hours ago, Dottles said:

it's here to stay.

yep....  

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46 minutes ago, Square Wheels said:

I just talked with her.  She's back at work after missing two weeks.

She went down with a lot of family, there were about 20 of them staying in a house.

1/2 of them tested positive for Covid.

How many were vaccinated? How many actually got "sick" versus tested positive?  I would assume none of the younger kids would be vaccinated.

I also bet neither Florida (or CA?) nor Disney are doing any contact tracing.

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16 minutes ago, Razors Edge said:

How many were vaccinated? How many actually got "sick" versus tested positive?  I would assume none of the younger kids would be vaccinated.

I also bet neither Florida (or CA?) nor Disney are doing any contact tracing.

I believe all the adults are vaccinated.

The vaccine is not available to children.

My friends kid went to the ER vomiting.  The mom was mildly ill.

Not sure about the symptoms on her extended family.

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1 hour ago, Razors Edge said:

Uh, folks who have had COVID do indeed develop antibodies and have very similar "immunity" (NO ONE IS IMMUNE, EVER) to a vaccination.  It's in the 6+ months or more range. 

Folks who are vaxxed can get COVID and get sick.  Folks who had COVID can get it again and get sick.  Both the vax (best option) and having had COVID (less fun option) will lead to some level of long term protection and a degree of partial immunity that is a HUGE benefit to fighting and surviving COVID.

If we're tripped up on the word immune, then nothing is useful.  The first highlight is the way we are using "immune", not the second more restrictive one:

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Is partial immunity like partial pregnancy?

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43 minutes ago, Razors Edge said:

How many were vaccinated? How many actually got "sick" versus tested positive?  I would assume none of the younger kids would be vaccinated.

I also bet neither Florida (or CA?) nor Disney are doing any contact tracing.

Florida now accounts for 20% of all the new covid cases in the country.  Good thing they aren't contact tracing or maintaining any sort of controls.

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13 minutes ago, maddmaxx said:

Is partial immunity like partial pregnancy?

Would you rather be 90+% protected or 0% "immune"?  Especially if the 90+% can be regularly renewed, and the 0% would be forever (or until you die from your imperfection).

Seems you have a weird worry over vaccines that are 90+% effective at creating "immunity" and greatly reduce sickness, suffering, and death. 

Assuming :D that COVID and COVID variants are around for a long time, what's your game plan?  Mine is (and was) get vaccinated and start moving on with life. So far, so good (and certainly better than this time last year).

38 minutes ago, Square Wheels said:

The vaccine is not available to children.

Isn't it down to 12 yrs and up?  So "kids" is really young kids.  But those are GERM FACTORIES!

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4 minutes ago, Razors Edge said:

Would you rather be 90+% protected or 0% "immune"?  Especially if the 90+% can be regularly renewed, and the 0% would be forever (or until you die from your imperfection).

Seems you have a weird worry over vaccines that are 90+% effective at creating "immunity" and greatly reduce sickness, suffering, and death. 

Assuming :D that COVID and COVID variants are around for a long time, what's your game plan?  Mine is (and was) get vaccinated and start moving on with life. So far, so good (and certainly better than this time last year).

Isn't it down to 12 yrs and up?  So "kids" is really young kids.  But those are GERM FACTORIES!

I'm fine with 90% protection.  What I don't like is the semantics that fuel the "Everything is ok, it's fine, everyone be happy" sentiment that leads far too many to assume that covid is either over or that it is not dangerous.  That's just fools talk.

One can simply not go farther into this without breaking the no politics rules here.

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1 minute ago, maddmaxx said:

I'm fine with 90% protection.  What I don't like is the semantics that fuel the "Everything is ok, it's fine, everyone be happy" sentiment that leads far too many to assume that covid is either over or that it is not dangerous.  That's just fools talk.

Yes - it is fool's talk when spoken by folks who are unvaccinated or otherwise immune.  But for the folks who have 90%+ protection, it's fools talk to think they should NOT be moving forward with living as normally as reasonable.

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4 minutes ago, Razors Edge said:

Yes - it is fool's talk when spoken by folks who are unvaccinated or otherwise immune.  But for the folks who have 90%+ protection, it's fools talk to think they should NOT be moving forward with living as normally as reasonable.

It's fools talk.  Why do you have to use a qualifier on your sentence if it's so safe.  The answer is semantics to pretend everything is ok.

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Just now, maddmaxx said:

It's fools talk.  Why do you have to use a qualifier on your sentence if it's so safe.

But it is "safe" for many.  It remains dangerous for others.  I guess you just need to know where you fall.

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32 minutes ago, Razors Edge said:

But it is "safe" for many.  It remains dangerous for others.  I guess you just need to know where you fall.

I know where some fail.

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How many people would refuse treatment for another illness like cancer? I realize a vaccine is not a treatment, but it is an effective way to prevent getting a nasty disease. It's fairly simple.

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On 7/19/2021 at 11:45 AM, denniS said:

How many people would refuse treatment for another illness like cancer? 

Not the same.  Some cancer treatments fail miserably and make your time left significantly worse.  I'd have to consider my odds of survival vs the side effects.

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2 hours ago, Square Wheels said:

Not the same.  Some cancer treatments fail miserably and make your time left significantly worse.  I'd have to consider my odds of survival vs the side effects.

Of course it's not the same. I said it's not the same. My point is are the anti-vax people refusing all medical treatment? Do they take meds their dr prescribes or refuse all medical treatment?

We know the vaccine works well against stopping the virus, hospitalizations, and death. Do they ignore all science or just this science?

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On 7/13/2021 at 7:38 PM, Thaddeus Kosciuszko said:

mutations and variants we've seen so far.  As with the flu, the covid virus will continue to mutate with some years being worse than others

This. It’s been the SARS story all along, and the scope is global with each virus traveling from continent to continent. 

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5 hours ago, Square Wheels said:

Not the same.  Some cancer treatments fail miserably and make your time left significantly worse.  I'd have to consider my odds of survival vs the side effects.

My Dad’s experience. He wouldn’t have taken the treatment if he knew in advance how poor his quality of life would be post treatment. 

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