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A huge car shortage?


Road Runner
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I just heard that GM is shutting down its assembly plants due to the chip shortage.  On top of that, Ida and her flooding must have destroyed or severely damaged thousands of cars.  Used car prices should increase significantly.  Too bad I sold my Mustang.  :(

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1 minute ago, Road Runner said:

I just heard that GM is shutting down its assembly plants due to the chip shortage.  On top of that, Ida and her flooding must have destroyed or severely damaged thousands of cars.  Used car prices should increase significantly.  Too bad I sold my Mustang.  :(

It is so sad to see all those rooned cars floating around. :( What a huge waste of resources.

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1 minute ago, Philander Seabury said:

It is so sad to see all those rooned cars floating around. :( What a huge waste of resources.

I get mad whenever I see someone trying to drive through two or three feet of water.  Driving through water just increases the damage to the vehicle.

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4 minutes ago, Wilbur said:

You what?

Don't bother answering, I am not talking to you. :angry:

I sold it to my neighbor, who, ironically, bought it to replace his Dodge Charger that he damaged by driving through water.  :o

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It seems there is still a shortage of new cars. My daughters FIL sells cars for Lexus and he’s killing it right now.  People will pay over sticker for their cars and if a buyer tries to negotiate he just tells them now is not the right time for you to buy and moves on. 

Volume is down due to the lack of inventory but they are making much more on each sale. 

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A lot or flood-damaged cars will be shipped out to drier states and sold to unsuspecting people, never having disclosed that the car was flooded.  I would not buy a used car for at least 6 months unless I knew the seller personally, if I had to buy a car.

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This is why I like the older cars, no computer chips to screw anything up. Either your going somewhere or your broke down.. 

also I’d there was ever an EMP blast, I’ll still be driving around :)

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40 minutes ago, KrAzY said:

This is why I like the older cars, no computer chips to screw anything up.

So...  all of your cars were new in the 70s (or older)?  

I should have saved my dwell meter and timing light and gave them to you.  When I moved, they were retired forever. 

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It makes you wonder why such critical parts are no longer manufactured in the US.   

Sure the car dealers are making LOTS of money.  The car manufactures when they shut down... that has to cost them millions per day in lost production.

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53 minutes ago, Bikeguy said:

So...  all of your cars were new in the 70s (or older)?  

I should have saved my dwell meter and timing light and gave them to you.  When I moved, they were retired forever. 

I still have a timing gun from my granddad. Also other toys I plucked up through the years. 

I have a ‘28 Chevy and will be getting a ‘60 valiant in the next couple weeks. 
 

77E0EA0E-AD8C-4BC7-B14A-B0556D75CA27.thumb.jpeg.843687ed671de217463679e13218e41f.jpeg

 

 

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45 minutes ago, Bikeguy said:

Wow  I haven't seen a drum brake spring tool in a while.  I suppose mine is in my tool box somewhere. 

They are deadly.. ever have the spring come shooting out at ya faster then a fat kid seeing a cake.. 

just did a quick inventory.. I have 6 grease guns.. 🤣

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57 minutes ago, Bikeguy said:

Wow  I haven't seen a drum brake spring tool in a while.  I suppose mine is in my tool box somewhere. 

I still have the gizmo for adjusting drum brakes, before they put the self adjusters on them.

I resisted buying it, but I hade a '62 Chevy wagon that needed the brakes adjusted regularly, and this weird little lever made it so much easier.

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21 minutes ago, KrAzY said:

ever have the spring come shooting out at ya faster then a fat kid seeing a cake.. 

No...  I had them slip, but never shoot out at me.

I did have a tripod bumper jack (back when we had real bumpers) and the car bounced on my hand (on the left little finger joint next to my palm) that was on the top jack.  Needed 8 stiches to get that fixed.  Doc could not believe the bones were not broken, and the finger was still attached.   I remember being able to pull the skin back and see the bone.  

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15 minutes ago, Further said:

I still have the gizmo for adjusting drum brakes, before they put the self adjusters on them.

I resisted buying it, but I hade a '62 Chevy wagon that needed the brakes adjusted regularly, and this weird little lever made it so much easier.

I avoid drum brake maintenance like the plague covid!

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9 minutes ago, Philander Seabury said:

I avoid drum brake maintenance like the plague covid!

Then you need one of these for disk brakes, to squeeze the piston(s) back into the caliper.  (that's in my tool box somewhere too)

71QYS53sY7L._AC_SL1500_.jpg

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3 hours ago, Bikeguy said:

It makes you wonder why such critical parts are no longer manufactured in the US.   

Sure the car dealers are making LOTS of money.  The car manufactures when they shut down... that has to cost them millions per day in lost production.

Not really.

https://www.npr.org/2021/05/09/995173029/despite-semiconductor-shortage-automakers-are-seeing-big-profits

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1 hour ago, Bikeguy said:

No...  I had them slip, but never shoot out at me.

I did have a tripod bumper jack (back when we had real bumpers) and the car bounced on my hand (on the left little finger joint next to my palm) that was on the top jack.  Needed 8 stiches to get that fixed.  Doc could not believe the bones were not broken, and the finger was still attached.   I remember being able to pull the skin back and see the bone.  

Dang.. I know that feeling all too well. My chevelle had a high lift style Jack. I was letting it down one day and got a little over zealous. Damn bar about came up and hit me in the face. 
 

these are real bumpers..lol

image.jpg

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16 minutes ago, jdc2000 said:

The car dealer's lots in my area have lots of empty spaces, but few cars.

Same here....   I think one dealer had 10 new cars a few weeks ago.  In the past, they'd have more than that for one model.

I get email from the Toyota dealer (probably sent to all who purchased a car from them) telling me they would love to buy my car.  

And they sent other emails telling me I can buy a car from their future orders.  

I don't want to know how much over list price they are getting for their new cars.   I'll keep mine for a while...  maybe a long time.  I don't see this ending soon.

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On 9/4/2021 at 11:17 AM, Road Runner said:

I just heard that GM is shutting down its assembly plants due to the chip shortage. 

It would seem that condition would encourage GM (or any manufacturer) to pay a premium price for the chips.  After all, what percentage of a new car purchase price is the chip?  Would that percentage even be noticeable in the overall price of the car if the cost of the chip(s) to GM were doubled, tripled, or even quadrupled?

So just for an exercise, let's say that GM was willing to pay ten times the normal price of the chip(s), and still couldn't get enough - or any.  Under normal circumstances a chip maker would jump at such a chance to make those profits.  Even running at 2nd or 3rd shift, and weekend premiums there still would be plenty of money for handsome profits to line the chip makers' pockets.

So if GM were willing to pull out all the stops to get chips, why aren't the manufacturers responding to what most assuredly have been some lucrative incentives offered by the major car manufacturers? 

For whatever the chip makers are missing or needing, they could do the same as GM - pay a higher price for what they need, get back into production, and start churning out chips to make the big profits.

That would seem to make the most sense, unless there were another reason - not related to profits - that brings this shortage into perspective.

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2 hours ago, Bikeguy said:

Yes, they are making fewer cars. That does not mean they are losing money. Auto Stock prices are strong. They figured out a way to make money selling fewer cars.

The losers are probably employees furloughed. UAW workers are probably okay, but others might be taking a hit. I don't know how unemployment and furloughs work. 

Ford posts unexpected profit despite chip shortage

In April Ford warned that it expected to lose about 50% of its planned second-quarter production from the chip shortage, which would cost it about $2.5 billion over the course of the year. But on Wednesday the company said the lost production was not as bad as feared, and it now expects full-year adjusted earnings before interest and taxes to come to between $9 billion to $10 billion, well above the $5.5 billion to $6.5 billion range it was projecting just three months ago.

"We have learned that, yes, operating with fewer vehicles on lots is not only possible but it's better for customers, dealers and Ford," Farley said. He said more customer orders lower inventories for Ford and its dealers and better reflects actual demand, and less need to use cash-back and financing offers to move vehicles already in inventory.

https://news.yahoo.com/despite-chip-shortage-gm-posts-115012687.html

Even with the caution, GM told the same story as competitors Ford, Stellantis and others reporting strong profits, saying that high prices and healthy demand for expensive pickup trucks and luxury SUVs overcame inventory shortages.

GM boosted its net income guidance for the full year to $7.7 billion and $9.2 billion, and pretax earnings to a range of $11.5 billion to $13.5 billion from $10 billion to $11 billion.

The Great American Car Shortage won't be over for months

"I know we're wasting money on incentives," Farley said. "I just don't know where. With an order-based system, we will have much less risk of that." And the upside for buyers is that "they more quickly get the precise vehicle they want."

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1 hour ago, denniS said:

"We have learned that, yes, operating with fewer vehicles on lots is not only possible but it's better for customers, dealers and Ford," Farley said. He said more customer orders lower inventories for Ford and its dealers and better reflects actual demand, and less need to use cash-back and financing offers to move vehicles already in inventory.

The Great American Car Shortage won't be over for months

"I know we're wasting money on incentives," Farley said. "I just don't know where. With an order-based system, we will have much less risk of that." And the upside for buyers is that "they more quickly get the precise vehicle they want."

So... bottom line...  if I want to buy a new car anytime soon, I get to order 'exactly' the car I want, wait for it to be built, and of course pay MSRP (or more) for the car.  And this won't end anytime soon. 

Hmmm... welcome to the new normal for buying new cars.   

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Yep, I fully expect to pay top dollar for our next new car. It somehow makes it less painful when you just except it for what it is. :unsure: 

And the best I can hope for is to get a little extra for my used vehicles by selling them myself. As for new car inventories, they're oot there, you just need to look a little harder. The closest dealer that has the car I want is several hours away.

cx 31.jpg

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On 9/4/2021 at 5:28 PM, Bikeguy said:

Then you need one of these for disk brakes, to squeeze the piston(s) back into the caliper.  (that's in my tool box somewhere too)

71QYS53sY7L._AC_SL1500_.jpg

HoSmudge just uses a big flathead screwdriver to pry them back before taking them off. :dontknow:

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18 minutes ago, smudge said:

HoSmudge just uses a big flathead screwdriver to pry them back before taking them off. :dontknow:

Taking them off is easy, the meaty C clamp is used to flatten them so they can go back in. 
 

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5 hours ago, smudge said:

He pushes them back BEFORE taking it apart. The.puston stays put, so no clamp needed prior to reassembly. Easy peasy.

I did that, but then I realized because of the very uneven pad wear that the calipers are probably sticking so I will have to take it to the shop. I don’t do hydraulics. 

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On 9/4/2021 at 11:17 AM, Road Runner said:

I just heard that GM is shutting down its assembly plants due to the chip shortage.  On top of that, Ida and her flooding must have destroyed or severely damaged thousands of cars.  Used car prices should increase significantly.  Too bad I sold my Mustang.  :(

Toyota, which was a financial news darling a month ago because it had, they said stocked up on chips, announced last week they're short of chips and will cut 40% of their worldwide production, including 60,000 to 90,000 cars per month in the USA.

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On 9/4/2021 at 1:33 PM, Bikeguy said:

So...  all of your cars were new in the 70s (or older)?  

I should have saved my dwell meter and timing light and gave them to you.  When I moved, they were retired forever. 

I still have mine plus the little suction cups and paste to grind valves.

I also have a roll of asbestos gasket material. Don't tell the EPA.

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On 9/4/2021 at 11:17 AM, Road Runner said:

I just heard that GM is shutting down its assembly plants due to the chip shortage. 

As a matter of fact they ARE shutting down the Wentzville, MO plant for two weeks. Great. Just great. My new Colorado was scheduled to be built this coming week. sigh....

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On 9/4/2021 at 8:29 AM, Rattlecan said:

Not just the huge cars that are in short supply. The little ones are scarce too.

So are phones.

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31 minutes ago, Dottles said:

So are phones.

Yeah phones are next on the endangered chip list.  https://www.zdnet.com/article/do-you-really-need-a-new-phone-why-the-global-chip-shortage-should-make-you-think-twice/

On 9/5/2021 at 7:29 PM, Thaddeus Kosciuszko said:

unless there were another reason - not related to profits - that brings this shortage into perspective.

Hmmm...  Possibly there are too many coincidences occurring in the electronics manufacturing area.  

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If you deal with the accounting "properly" manufacturers also make money when they shut down plants and don't pay workers.  They get to claim losses on their taxes and we get to pay the workers for not working.

In many cases the CEO and board members will get bonuses for their smart application of cost cutting methods.

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2 hours ago, maddmaxx said:

They get to claim losses on their taxes and we get to pay the workers for not working.

Why do you think that you pay them for not working?  Unemployment insurance is not part of the general fund at either the state or federal level.  Every employer pays an unemployment tax on every hour paid.  It includes both a federal and state component.  An employer’s tax rate is adjusted based on use.  The more you have that file against you, the higher your tax rate.

The federal government does loan money to the states during tough times, but every state has to  pay that back.  And where do the states get the money to pay back?  Not from their general fund.  They raise the tax rates to the employer.  

You will not be paying for the unemployed auto workers.

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On 9/4/2021 at 11:17 AM, Road Runner said:

I just heard that GM is shutting down its assembly plants due to the chip shortage.  On top of that, Ida and her flooding must have destroyed or severely damaged thousands of cars.  Used car prices should increase significantly.  Too bad I sold my Mustang.  :(

I don't think there is a "shortage" as much as reduced variety of choices.  I think folks are worked up again and spinning because they can't have what they want immediately and for a deal.

With a 30 day inventory and over 1 million cars/SUVs/trucks sitting on dealer lots, the perceived shortage is more an issue of those million vehicles not matching exactly what a person wants to pay MSRP for.  Would you pay full price for a perfectly good working vehicle that was the wrong color (brown is ALWAYS the wrong color)?  Is there a peanut butter shortage if there is simply no salted crunchy PB on the shelf, but there is plenty of unsalted and smooth available?

That sales rate is falling, in part, because shoppers are walking away from the market due to the high prices or because the short supply means they can’t find the car they want.

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1 hour ago, Razors Edge said:

I don't think there is a "shortage" as much as reduced variety of choices.  I think folks are worked up again and spinning because they can't have what they want immediately and for a deal.

With a 30 day inventory and over 1 million cars/SUVs/trucks sitting on dealer lots, the perceived shortage is more an issue of those million vehicles not matching exactly what a person wants to pay MSRP for.  Would you pay full price for a perfectly good working vehicle that was the wrong color (brown is ALWAYS the wrong color)?  Is there a peanut butter shortage if there is simply no salted crunchy PB on the shelf, but there is plenty of unsalted and smooth available?

That sales rate is falling, in part, because shoppers are walking away from the market due to the high prices or because the short supply means they can’t find the car they want.

Sort of. Some cars are just gone. My local Subaru dealership has six Foresters and one Crosstrek. Zero Outbacks, Ascents, Imprezas and Legacys.

A friend of mine ordered a car in Jan. They are still waiting. 

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3 minutes ago, denniS said:

Sort of. Some cars are just gone. My local Subaru dealership has six Foresters and one Crosstrek. Zero Outbacks, Ascents, Imprezas and Legacys.

A friend of mine ordered a car in Jan. They are still waiting. 

Yeah - a selection thing.  If someone needs a car or truck or SUV, there are 1,000,000+ brand new ones to choose from at any given time.  A 30 day supply sitting on lots.  Is that great? For some.  Is that awful? For others.  But again, it's a spin up that then spins more stuff up that then spins it some more :(

From a prudence side of things, it makes sense to not buy a new vehicle right now.  Similar to pausing before buying a house or any other item that may be non-essential for folks who have working vehicles or a perfectly fine home.

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