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Speaking of Russian attacks, what is the endgame?


Randomguy
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Territorial acquisition seems most likely, Ukraine must have some resources or strategic value.  Shirley it isn't all for tweaking the euro folks out there, right?  Start of more imperial ambitions is another angle, too.  Can't have the USSR without some more contiguous colonies, can you?

What do you think?

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1 minute ago, Bag of Dicks said:

Territorial acquisition seems most likely, Ukraine must have some resources or strategic value.  Shirley it isn't all for tweaking the euro folks out there, right?  Start of more imperial ambitions is another angle, too.  Can't have the USSR without some more contiguous colonies, can you?

What do you think?

NATO blocking.  And jealous that Justin out-commied him. 

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Putin is hugely POd about a change in Ukraine power structure in 2014. Russian friendly but corrupt leadership deposed and substituted by Western friendly but corrupt leadership. He also states that he fears NATO influence  that close to his doorstep. 

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Putin is old soviet school and has an ego filled dream of rebuilding an empire to cover up the kleptocracy he's involved in at home robbing the Russian people blind.  Same old Russian shit as always.  Oligarchs.

If you've watched the Russian Mafia at work here then you understand the Russian governmental structure.

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Mostly about NATO. Putin hates NATO, because they are stopping him from "reclaiming" the USSR.  

In speaking with the few Russians I know, there's also this Russian concept that Ukraine and Russia have always sort of been one.  And then there was the expectation that when the Soviet Union broke up, the countries would remain loyal to Russia.  The Ukraine people ousting the corrupt Russian puppet government was a bit of a slap in the face.

Just sickening how a single decrepit human can cause such tragedy.  I hope someone somewhere has a great plan to shut Putin down.  Economic sanctions take time to hurt.

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8 minutes ago, 12string said:

Mostly about NATO. Putin hates NATO, because they are stopping him from "reclaiming" the USSR.  

In speaking with the few Russians I know, there's also this Russian concept that Ukraine and Russia have always sort of been one.  And then there was the expectation that when the Soviet Union broke up, the countries would remain loyal to Russia.  The Ukraine people ousting the corrupt Russian puppet government was a bit of a slap in the face.

Just sickening how a single decrepit human can cause such tragedy.  I hope someone somewhere has a great plan to shut Putin down.  Economic sanctions take time to hurt.

First you give him poisoned cakes, then poisoned wine and after that doesn't work you resort to violence.

 

Oh wait.  That was a different putin.

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1 hour ago, Bag of Dicks said:

Territorial acquisition seems most likely, Ukraine must have some resources or strategic value.  Shirley it isn't all for tweaking the euro folks out there, right?  Start of more imperial ambitions is another angle, too.  Can't have the USSR without some more contiguous colonies, can you?

What do you think?

The areas partly held by the separatists have a lot of mines of various minerals.

Ukraine is a major wheat exporter.

My guess is that Russia wants a buffer with NATO - which outnumbers Russia in troops and equipment in Europe - and will install a puppet regime in Ukraine that's loyal to Russia and keep it funded with secret police, etc.  If Russia continued to occupy Ukraine for the long-term, Russian troops and officials would be constantly harassed by guerilla forces that pop back-and-forth across the borders of the neighboring NATO countries.

In any case, it's going to be a drag on Russia's economy and, hopefully, the EU and other sanctions will remain in place long-term and Putin's successor will see the wisdom of giving up on Ukraine.  Putin's only 69, but he looks like he's 80.  I wonder if he has an illness and wants to leave a legacy?

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2 hours ago, Bag of Dicks said:

...what is the endgame?

Territorial acquisition seems most likely, Ukraine must have some resources or strategic value.  Shirley it isn't all for tweaking the euro folks out there, right?  Start of more imperial ambitions is another angle, too.  Can't have the USSR without some more contiguous colonies, can you?

What do you think?

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4 minutes ago, Philander Seabury said:

Unfortunately it seems pretty darn likely to me. 

I view it as remote. I think this will trigger the EU to start taking defense seriously. I think Putin’s expansion will be South  and East - the Stans and Turkey/Middle East. 

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1 hour ago, Prophet Zacharia said:

Reports are the Russian tanks have been running out of gas, and the troops searching for food. I’m not sure if the Ukrainians have been particularly skillful at disrupting resupply efforts, or if the Russians are having straight logistical issues.

Eventually, if the advances bog down,  they will resort to the weapons Russia has always had a love affair with.  They will stand back and turn the target cities into piles of stone using their artillery.

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1 hour ago, Prophet Zacharia said:

Reports are the Russian tanks have been running out of gas, and the troops searching for food. I’m not sure if the Ukrainians have been particularly skillful at disrupting resupply efforts, or if the Russians are having straight logistical issues.

I am not sure I would believe reports like that, except maybe isolated units.  They stacked supplies at the border for weeks, and it isn’t like Ukraine is four countries over, it is right next door.  Propaganda to raise morale most likely.  Just a guess, I have no inside info or anything. 
It sure would be cool if accurate, though.  

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10 hours ago, Randomguy said:

I am not sure I would believe reports like that, except maybe isolated units.  They stacked supplies at the border for weeks, and it isn’t like Ukraine is four countries over, it is right next door.  Propaganda to raise morale most likely.  Just a guess, I have no inside info or anything. 
It sure would be cool if accurate, though.  

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On 2/24/2022 at 10:47 AM, Randomguy said:

Territorial acquisition seems most likely, Ukraine must have some resources or strategic value.  Shirley it isn't all for tweaking the euro folks out there, right?  Start of more imperial ambitions is another angle, too.  Can't have the USSR without some more contiguous colonies, can you?

What do you think?

Putin does not likely want to absorb Ukraine into Russia or a Russian Empire except for the rebellious provinces in the Southeast of Ukraine.  A Ukraine as part of Russia would become a big headache as rebels seek indepence year after year.  Putting in a brutal dictator - as in Belarus - would work better.

Putin wants to overthrow the existing government, install a puppet loyal to Moscow, and keep Ukraine out of NATO while setting an example to warn Georgia not to do so.

That's why there was no shock-and-awe invasion - there have been no massive artillery barrages, no waves of warplanes, etc.  Kyiv is slowly being starved out.  Ukrainian troops are basically being isolated in other cities - no need to attack them and generate thousands of casualties on each side.

But things aren't working out the way Putin expected and he doesn't have enough troops in place to control all of Ukraine.

Germany is sending in 1000 anti-tank weapons and 500 Stinger missiles to shoot down planes and the USA is sending in $350 million in weapons.  Poland has already sent weapons in.  Food is sure next.

Putin's next move is either to ramp-up the attack or to withdraw except for the two breakaway provinces.

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4 minutes ago, MickinMD said:

Putin does not likely want to absorb Ukraine into Russia or a Russian Empire except for the rebellious provinces in the Southeast of Ukraine.  A Ukraine as part of Russia would become a big headache as rebels seek indepence year after year.  Putting in a brutal dictator - as in Belarus - would work better.

Putin wants to overthrow the existing government, install a puppet loyal to Moscow, and keep Ukraine out of NATO while setting an example to warn Georgia not to do so.

That's why there was no shock-and-awe invasion - there have been no massive artillery barrages, no waves of warplanes, etc.  Kyiv is slowly being starved out.  Ukrainian troops are basically being isolated in other cities - no need to attack them and generate thousands of casualties on each side.

But things aren't working out the way Putin expected and he doesn't have enough troops in place to control all of Ukraine.

Germany is sending in 1000 anti-tank weapons and 500 Stinger missiles to shoot down planes and the USA is sending in $350 million in weapons.  Poland has already sent weapons in.  Food is sure next.

Putin's next move is either to ramp-up the attack or to withdraw except for the two breakaway provinces.

Don’t underestimate the significance of the puppet regime. That is huge to both Putin and saving the current regime is huge to Western Europe. More so than actual territory. 

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36 minutes ago, Wilbur said:

I predict the Eastern provinces will be retained by Russia.  They are majority ethnic Russians anyways so no real loss.  If Putin withdrawals, Ukraine will quickly become an EU state.  

Russian Propaganda is pushing this majority ethnic Russian thing as well as justification for the land grab.  It's the same as the occupation of Crimea.

"I want that.  There must be some Russians living there that need us to free them".

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15 minutes ago, maddmaxx said:

Russian Propaganda is pushing this majority ethnic Russian thing as well as justification for the land grab.  It's the same as the occupation of Crimea.

"I want that.  There must be some Russians living there that need us to free them".

The population actually is mostly Russian and like Crimea, most prefer Russian rule.  Probably because of what is playing out right now.  We used to drive down to the beaches and vineyards in Crimea when we stayed in Odessa for extended periods.  That however, does not excuse a land grab. 

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We watched Winter on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom, a 2015 documentary about the popular uprising that unseated Yanukovich. Ukrainian unity is a force. Through my kitchen window, they can make themselves entirely ungovernable until any Russian puppet government flees in a helicopter in the middle of the night. 

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On 2/24/2022 at 9:47 AM, Randomguy said:

Can't have the USSR without some more contiguous colonies, can you?

IMHO the 'reunification of the USSR' is the plan.  It may take a few more years or more.  They go one step at a time.  This have been in progress for many years now.

After Ukraine, things will slow down for a few years.  Then the NATO countries that are dependent on Russia for fuel (oil, and natural gas) will be held hostage, until they leave NATO.  After NATO is weaker, the next three countries on the Baltic Sea (Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia) will be the next targets for reunification. 

It's just sad...  that this has happen.    I hope I'm wrong... but that what I see.:(

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I wonder if it's a scam?

Putin wants us to think his military is so incompetent in terms of logistics, tactics, and strategy that we'll lower our guard in the rest of Europe.

Seriously, with 6000 Russian people arrested for protesting the invasion of Ukraine - a small percentage of the total protestors - and famous Russians, from a former Prime Minister, to a former World Chess Champion, to a top tennis player, to the daughter of the Kremlin's Chief Spokesman speaking out against the invasion, I wonder how many Russians in political and military leadership positions are considering declaring Putin insane and Foreign Minister Lavrov a criminal and maybe scapegoat for allegedly misleading insane Putin.

They have to realize that Russia has to lose seriously over this for the long-term and even stab-the-USA-in-the-back China seems to be realizing this.

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32 minutes ago, Wilbur said:

Apparently the Russians are now using the TOS-1 thermobaric missiles.  Not good. 

For those of us not in the know. 
 

The TOS-1, nicknamed the “Buratino” – the Russian version of Pinocchio – for its big nose, is one of the most feared weapons systems in Russia’s conventional armoury, a multiple launch rocket system mounted on the chassis of a T-72 tank capable of firing thermobaric rockets which use oxygen from the surrounding air to generate a high-temperature explosion.

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1 minute ago, BuffJim said:

For those of us not in the know. 
 

The TOS-1, nicknamed the “Buratino” – the Russian version of Pinocchio – for its big nose, is one of the most feared weapons systems in Russia’s conventional armoury, a multiple launch rocket system mounted on the chassis of a T-72 tank capable of firing thermobaric rockets which use oxygen from the surrounding air to generate a high-temperature explosion.

A small scale scorched earth weapon.  wit kills everything. 

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7 minutes ago, Scrapr said:

Is that weapon a war crime?

When used on the general [population it is.  Then again, so are rocket attacks on residential housing.   He will most likely be found in violation of the Geneva Convention in the future.  I don't think he cares, though. 

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44 minutes ago, Scrapr said:

Is that weapon a war crime?

American forces used thermobaric weapons in Vietnam, where they were more effective than napalm at clearing large swathes of jungle to allow helicopters to land.

They were also used in Afghanistan in the wake of 9/11 as the United States hunted Osama bin Laden in the caves of the mountainous Tora Bora region.

Russian forces also have a history with the weapons, having deployed them in the Chechnya conflict more than two decades ago.  What are thermobaric weapons, which could be used in the war between Russia and Ukraine? - ABC News

You may already know them by the name "Fuel/Air" explosives.

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When I was going to grad school at IIT in the mid-70's, Chicago newspaper columnist Henry Taylor, a former U.S. Ambassador to Switzerland, wrote something I've never forgotten:

When you're trying to get representatives of another country to retreat from a position, you have to give them a horse to ride away on.

I think that's true in dealing with people in general and a good idea if it's practical.

This basically means you have to let them "save face" by allowing them a small victory.  But the problem here is that Putin doesn't seem to have allowed a case where the West can cave to any of his positions so he can ride away.

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On 2/25/2022 at 4:03 AM, Philander Seabury said:

He wants the iron curtain back to where it used to be.

No. Russia has oil, Crimea was about ports, Ukraine is about farmland. Putin knows money is fake and just points in a game. Real power is control. Military, oil, food. 
Read the text on Augustus’ mausoleum. He spells out how to be Cesar. Putin is following it to a tee. Tsar is Russian for Cesar. 

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...in spite of all that oil and natural gas cash floating around in the Russian economy from export revenues, the real world facts are that under Putin, the Russian economy has not diversified much. This is typical of a Kleptocracy, and with a Russian economic profile that is somewhat smaller than the state of Texas (albeit a nuclear armed Texas), I don't think we can entirely ignore the idea that Putin is no longer a rational actor.

Here's the Wiki link to Russia's economic ups and downs.

Clearly the NATO strategy here is to make the Russian people miserable enough to finally face up to the idea that Vladimir Putin is not managing their shared economic interests in a way that allows the to enjoy a first world economy any longer, and to do something about getting him out of power.  It will probably work, but I doubt it will work before the Russians do, indeed, install another puppet regime to run Ukraine.  And I doubt the plans include rebuilding much of what is getting destroyed, as we watch it happening on TV.

But longer term, I find the idea that a country with Russia's handicaps in economic size and dependence on export products for their foreign exchange income can realistically continue to chip away at the NATO nations, occupying them like a string of dominoes, extremely unlikely.  This war is not gonna pencil out as a moneymaker, and the occupation will be a further drain on the Russian economy, a la Afghanistan. It's one thing to build a powerful military machine using your economic base, and another thing entirely to use that machine longer term.  That involves some ongoing costs that are well in excess of your initial investment

 

I think Putin has made a significant miscalculation here, and can only attribute it to his decline as a rational leader, in the face of his continuing triumphs over the past years. Not the least of which was how much he enjoyed having Trump in the White House.  I have to say I'm surprised by this turn of events, because the man has been a master strategist in the past, and a Kodokan student. In Judo, anticipating your opponent's reactions and moves on the mat are a large part of the game.  Everyone fucks up eventually, given enough time and freedom from consequences.

I note that Germany has now made the decision to increase their own defense spending in excess of 2% of GNP.  And the rest of Europe will applaud this.  Which I also find remarkable, given how anxious German military spending has made their neighboring countries in the past.  Brave new world we live in.

 

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