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Putin puts nuclear forces on high alert


Road Runner
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6 minutes ago, Road Runner said:

It's been fun, but we knew this day would come, sooner or later...

I was always hoping for later.  

Then again... when I worked, I never thought I'd get to retire.  I had just assumed something bad would happen, and the world as we know it would end, taking me too.   I just knew I'd be here to see it first hand.   That nightmare may come true sooner than later.    I hope I'm wrong.... 

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The fact that the Russian military hasn't simply rolled like the tide over and through Ukraine leads me to believe there is/are some weakness(es) in the offensive that prevents an all-out effort.  Fuel supply shortage?  Limited ammunition?  Enough people to drive military vehicles to the border for show, but not trained to use them in combat?  Money?  Not sure what it is, but from the reports I've seen and heard the offensive isn't using all the men and equipment that Russia brought.  It's a big difference from the 1968 invasion of Czechoslovakia that was wrapped up in a week or so.

So by corollary, it would seem if the Russian conventional forces have some sort of critical limitation(s) that prevent(s) an immediate and quick takeover of Ukraine, their nuclear forces may well be in the same situation - missing some critical piece or pieces to be an effective force.  In fact, since it takes far more resources to maintain a nuclear arsenal vs. conventional forces, I wouldn't be surprised if a good part of that nuclear arsenal is for show.  The point being I suspect the 'high brass' know very well what that have - and what they don't - and would be very reluctant to launch given other nuclear arsenals around the world are better maintained than theirs and that they would wind up on the short end of the stick in an exchange.

Is that a lot to hang your hat on?  Well, no, not really  But in the least it gives me, for what it may be worth, some perspective on what's going on.

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2 minutes ago, Thaddeus Kosciuszko said:

it would seem if the Russian conventional forces have some sort of critical limitation(s) that prevent(s) an immediate and quick takeover of Ukraine,

Yeah... the Ukrainians  are fighting back.  That may slow things down a bit.   

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No, I think it might be even more complex sabotage  -- banking and govn't systems in the West..ransomware.

I think there are more worries often for those responsible for systems here.. it's just not publicized heavily to the public. Come  on folks, there are some  brilliant programmers in Russia.

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25 minutes ago, BuffJim said:

Someone will eventually do the unthinkable and unleash a Nuke. I don’t think we’re there yet. 

Continual testing of surface to air missiles and prior experience with nuclear containment suggest that it’s “thinkable.” The nuclear stalemate of mutually assured destruction is true in the abstract, but we know for a fact that life goes on in areas separated by distance from ground zero. 

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6 hours ago, Road Runner said:

It's been fun, but we knew this day would come, sooner or later...

I'm beginning to think Putin wants to commit suicide, but like the maniac that shoots a whole bunch of people before shooting himself, he has decided to take the whole world with him.

CNN's retired generals are saying Putin's military won't let him go nuclear.

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@Thaddeus Kosciuszko have you read the novel, Command and Control? It’s a good read on the nuclear weapons development, maintenance, and management situation. The book focused on the snafu in AR where a nuclear warhead was blown off of a missle and landed, intact, elsewhere. The Air Force doesn’t appear to be doing a good job. I doubt the Russian military isn’t doing any better. 

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3 hours ago, Wilbur said:

There has never been two crazier people with their finger on the button.  Even I am a little nervous. 

Previous guy wanted to nuke a hurricane. Probably a bit more stability here than before, at least. 

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26 minutes ago, groupw said:

Previous guy wanted to nuke a hurricane. Probably a bit more stability here than before, at least. 

Stability isn't a word I would associate with him but we will see what the people think in a few months.  :) 

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10 hours ago, Road Runner said:

I live in a high priority target area due to the extensive military presence here.  I'm not worried.  I'm pretty sure it will be quick and painless.  :mellow:

Keep a revolver nearby just in case

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12 hours ago, Prophet Zacharia said:

He also pondered why we couldn’t initiate a preemptive nuclear strike. 

"Pondered" is a poor choice of words.  More  "spitballing" with an inability to understand the resulting discussion :(  More a "read the room" and see if folks are outraged in a good or bad way?

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14 hours ago, Wilbur said:
14 hours ago, groupw said:

Previous guy wanted to nuke a hurricane. Probably a bit more stability here than before, at least. 

Stability isn't a word I would associate with him but we will see what the people think in a few months.

I'll just let history speak for itself...

Russian-occupied territories
Transnistria (since 1992)                               
<<  happened under George H. W. Bush
Abkhazia (since 2008)                                  <<  happened under George W. Bush
South Ossetia (since 2008)                          <<  happened under George W. Bush
Republic of Crimea (since 2014)                   << happened under Barack Obama
Luhansk People's Republic (since 2014)      << happened under Barack Obama
Donetsk People's Republic (since 2014)       << happened under Barack Obama

 

Ukraine is invaded  2022                                << happened under Joe Biden

 

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15 minutes ago, Bikeguy said:

I'll just let history speak for itself...

Russian-occupied territories
Transnistria (since 1992)                               
<<  happened under George H. W. Bush
Abkhazia (since 2008)                                  <<  happened under George W. Bush
South Ossetia (since 2008)                          <<  happened under George W. Bush
Republic of Crimea (since 2014)                   << happened under Barack Obama
Luhansk People's Republic (since 2014)      << happened under Barack Obama
Donetsk People's Republic (since 2014)       << happened under Barack Obama

 

Ukraine is invaded  2022                                << happened under Joe Biden

 

Don't forget Syria and Russian assistance in Aleppo and recent actions in Kazakhstan assisting the local government in stomping out protests.

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Those "timelines" are popping up all over, and they're cherry picking nonsense.  This has been going on since Putin took over, and he doesn't care who sits in Washington.  Since he started violating the Minsk agreements in 2015, he's killed 14,000 Ukranians, that's ongoing, too, and never shows up in memes.

No matter what you think about Biden, weak, strong, senile, superman, stop and think for a second about how it sounds to claim that Putin didn't attack because he was afraid of the man who has done nothing but praise him and encourage the attack.

Maybe had the world reacted more strongly to Crimea, the Russian people would have revolted by now and this wouldn't be still happening.

Not political, it's just historically what's been happening. 

I also wonder about the nuke issue.  I tend to believe the fear of an irrational Putin with an itchy trigger finger is the only reason more EU and US planes haven't been in the air.  I tend to thing active intel agencies know more than CNN's analysts.  I also wonder why, in this technological age, we don't have a way of neutering those things in their silos.

But really, what needs to happen is the Russian people need to rise up against autocracy and force the lunatic out.  A military attack on Russia creates sympathy in places like China, India, etc.  An internal uprising that gives the people control of their freedom and destiny sends a clear message to the Chinese and Indians, etc.   Which is why sanctions are now hitting the people.

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5 minutes ago, maddmaxx said:

The planes are almost in the air.  B-52's have been moved to eastern Europe.  Whether or not they have retaliation weapons on board is not something the news will know.

I don't think that means anything.  Troops have been there for weeks, more every day.  That's all about NATO, and I doubt Putin will cross that border.

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