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Ukranians hanging in there but Russia is regrouping for the territory they really want


Dottles
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They're into the second month and if you believe the Western press, Russia's basically bungled it.  But the longer this thing goes -- favor Russia.  Ukraine has done very well defending it's territory but they're not going to be able to win a long drawn out war with Russia unless they get help.  That's the way I see it. And if this thing draw out, watch the eye of the news move away from it and it will be a thing in the background and then Russia gets what they want.

Do you see it this way?  I personally don't trust Putin and don't think this is over by a long shot.  He's playing cat and mouse stuff.  I think he's up to some nefarious plans. And it's pretty clear they haven't thrown everything at them.  What say you?  Are you holding out hope that Ukraine can fend them off indefinitely? I think the longer it goes the more difficult it is for a united front from the EU -- which is exactly the game plan Putin and Co are playing for.

Discus.

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3 hours ago, Dottles said:

if you believe the Western press, Russia's basically bungled it.

I think it depends more on what the Russian objective was, rather than to question the reporting. Because objectively, they did not take Kiev, did not capture and replace Zelensky, and have suffered huge casualties and loss of equipment. But they continue to inflict huge damage to Ukraine, destroying their cities and infrastructure, killing, wounding and starving their citizens and driving millions of them out of the country. So Putin could still be happy with those results, even if the primary goals haven’t been achieved. So I agree, this won’t be over for a long time. 

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Putin is angling for a future of his design. It's a long way down from here for Russia to return to a Stalinesque environment. The key will be whether or not the Russian people will work for a future of their own design. If the attempt to take over the Ukrainian lands succeeds, the wealth will increase and the investment into national "security" will be pronounced successful. If Ukraine agrees to not join NATO, Putin may have a way out and the investment into national "security" will be pronounced successful. The problem for him is that the foreign investment in his country will be halted and trade will be restricted likely for the rest of his life. His only hope in this area is to find partners in China, Korea, and factions in the Middle East/Africa.

The Russian people will sue for new leadership. Which is a win for Russia but that turn around won't happen quickly or cleanly. The current vested interests will fight to retain their wealth and privilege. As before, it's all up to the Russian people. This Ukraine business is tragic but is likely only a catalyst.

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1 hour ago, Philander Seabury said:

So has Putin surpassed Hitler yet as the biggest sociopath ever? :(  I guess snot yet if Hitler managed to murder 6000000 people just to start with.

And I guess some of those other historic figures were no boy scouts either - Attila the Hun, etc.

He's still not in the league of Hitler, Stalin, Le Duan or Mao Zedong.  The latter may hold the record at a guestimated 45 million.

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4 hours ago, Philander Seabury said:

So has Putin surpassed Hitler yet as the biggest sociopath ever? :(  I guess snot yet if Hitler managed to murder 6000000 people just to start with.

And I guess some of those other historic figures were no boy scouts either - Attila the Hun, etc.

He is akin to Hitler insofar as being an insane sociopath.  He just hasn't got the power to rank as high a score.  Unless of course, he pushes that launch button. 

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5 hours ago, Philander Seabury said:

So has Putin surpassed Hitler yet as the biggest sociopath ever? :(  I guess snot yet if Hitler managed to murder 6000000 people just to start with.

And I guess some of those other historic figures were no boy scouts either - Attila the Hun, etc.

Not even close. I think there are bigger sociopaths on the earth now. Will wait for them to reveal themselves. 
l believe Hitler is the biggest sociopath in history, even though Mao and Stalin had bigger body counts. 
 

Not excusing Putin this particularly vicious and cruel war. 

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12 minutes ago, BuffJim said:

Don’t even recognize Le Duan. 

North Vietnam, the power behind the throne (Ho) as first secretary of the Communist party before becoming the throne.  More than 2 million dead in Vietnam post war and more than that in Cambodia and Laos.  That does not count the dead on all sides during the war when Le Duan committed the North to war rather than negotiation.  

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Ukraine will get enough help - just enough - to keep the Russians where they are and even push them back some.  They're in a similar position as England in WWII - the key resource they will run short of is manpower.  Look for Ukraine to start accepting women into the armed forces similar to the Israelis.  They will start asking men who fled as refugees to come home and fight.

The fronts will 'stabilize' to some extent, after which Ukraine will begin a reasonably successful guerrilla war that will be limited only by the aid that will trickle in - enough to prosecute the war but not enough to win.  The Russian military will continue with their brute force tactics of shelling populated areas etc., but limited by the amount that the hamstrung Russian economy will be able to produce and the miserable ability of their logistics/communications lines to get not only shells but any sort of supplies where they need to be. 

The Russian military won't get any better at what they're doing wrong.  The generals in charge now will 'retire', and those promoted from below them are graduates of the same school, so no material differences in results.  There will be a few Russian commanders who will move up and then make limited headway against the Ukrainians but they will be too successful and will be 'retired' too.

Russia will probably keep the eastern provinces, mostly because Ukraine won't have the strength to wrestle them back.  Ukraine eventually will have to turn its resources away from a vengeful guerilla war that is yielding very limited results in terms of dislodging Russia and turn its attention to rebuilding the country.  Putin's plan to keep NATO out of Ukraine will succeed on the surface as Ukraine will not be allowed into NATO.  However, it will fail in reality because the nearby NATO nations will want Ukraine as an independent buffer nation between them and Russia, and will surreptitiously send aid, weapons, and 'advisors' into Ukraine without a formal pact or treaty.  Again the aid won't be enough to strengthen Ukraine to pick up the war again, but enough to let Russia know they will suffer even greater losses should they attempt to conquer Ukraine again. 

Capitalists will see the opportunities to turn profitable investments (nothing wrong with that) related to rebuilding and will invest once things stabilize because the needs will be great and other nations will subsidize these efforts with aid.  If one of Putin's objectives was to more closely link Ukraine's economy to Russia's, then this will backfire on him as the country leans more towards capitalism as people see it as the more efficient system to rebuild.  The corruption for which Ukraine is supposedly famous will still be prevalent.

Don't be surprised if in a few years it comes to light that China was either sending weapons to Ukraine or sending funds to other countries for them to send weapons to Ukraine.  The longer the Russian army is tied down in Ukraine the weaker it will be along the Russia/Chinese border.  Which in turn means more security for China, and in turn allows it to redeploy resources that would have been tied down at the border to other places in the world.

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Russia's previous fiasco in Afghanistan probably caused the failure and breakup of the former Soviet Union.  On wonders what the ultimate result will be for the Putin government going forward.

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Putin's apparently trying to find a way to save face and Russia is now focusing on the East Ukrainian provinces including Donbas where Russian-speaking rebels hold territory.

The horrors being shown on CNN and other sites about the murders, rapes, robbed homes, in the areas around Kyiv that the Russians were driven out of or abandoned are unbelievable.  Europe hasn't seen this since the Nazis in WW2.

Considering tens of thousands of square miles of mineral rich eastern Poland, including Lwow (now Lviv), were transferred to Ukraine when the Soviet Union stabbed Poland in the back in 1939, it might not be a net loss for Ukraine to lose the mineral rich areas of Eastern Ukraine.

Additionally, note that Crimea had been partly Russian territory for hundreds of years, then made completely Russian by an international treaty in the 1700's.  In 1952, Ukraine's former Soviet Governor, Nikita Khrushchev, gave Crimea to Ukraine as payment for political support for him to become Soviet dictator.  When the Russians marched-in in 2014, 75% of Crimeans spoke Russian as their native language and considered themselves Russian.

So recognizing Crimea as belonging to Russia, and Donbas as belonging to Russia, in return for HUGE war reparations might be the best way out of this, along with Ukraine's pledge to not join NATO - which they can always do later, anyway.

But if Russia can't equip their own military, where are they going to get money to pay the war reparations - apparently oil revenues are being used up elsewhere.

 

 

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17 minutes ago, MickinMD said:

Putin's apparently trying to find a way to save face and Russia is now focusing on the East Ukrainian provinces including Donbas where Russian-speaking rebels hold territory.

The horrors being shown on CNN and other sites about the murders, rapes, robbed homes, in the areas around Kyiv that the Russians were driven out of or abandoned are unbelievable.  Europe hasn't seen this since the Nazis in WW2.

Considering tens of thousands of square miles of mineral rich eastern Poland, including Lwow (now Lviv), were transferred to Ukraine when the Soviet Union stabbed Poland in the back in 1939, it might not be a net loss for Ukraine to lose the mineral rich areas of Eastern Ukraine.

Additionally, note that Crimea had been partly Russian territory for hundreds of years, then made completely Russian by an international treaty in the 1700's.  In 1952, Ukraine's former Soviet Governor, Nikita Khrushchev, gave Crimea to Ukraine as payment for political support for him to become Soviet dictator.  When the Russians marched-in in 2014, 75% of Crimeans spoke Russian as their native language and considered themselves Russian.

So recognizing Crimea as belonging to Russia, and Donbas as belonging to Russia, in return for HUGE war reparations might be the best way out of this, along with Ukraine's pledge to not join NATO - which they can always do later, anyway.

But if Russia can't equip their own military, where are they going to get money to pay the war reparations - apparently oil revenues are being used up elsewhere.

 

 

No excuses for the Russians.  None of Ukraine belongs to them although they would like you to believe that there is some right on their side.

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18 minutes ago, maddmaxx said:

No excuses for the Russians.  None of Ukraine belongs to them although they would like you to believe that there is some right on their side.

But what about the Nazis!????! 🙂

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