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College dropoffs


maddmaxx

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There are 4 million fewer students in college now than there were 10 years ago, a falloff many observers blame on Covid-19, a dip in the number of Americans under 18 and a strong labor market that is sucking young people straight into the workforce.

Why Americans are increasingly dubious about going to college (nbcnews.com)

Is this necessarily a bad thing?

For quite a while now I've been reading that many who go to college and take on the debt of paying for it would have done better to get different schooling and a good paying job.

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Just now, Longjohn said:

I have worked with people who graduated college and went to work in the career of their choice only to discover they hated it and quit and took a job where the college degree wasn’t needed. (Insert icon of money flying out the window)

In the present panic insert Icon of colleges seeing an icon of money flying out the window.

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55 minutes ago, maddmaxx said:

Is this necessarily a bad thing?

There's good money to be made working in the trades that were overlooked for years because everyone was told that if you want to make money you have to go to college. 

I know several people who have a $60,000 useless piece of paper from a college. They went to college but can make more money working as a bar tender. 

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1 hour ago, maddmaxx said:

There are 4 million fewer students in college now than there were 10 years ago, a falloff many observers blame on Covid-19, a dip in the number of Americans under 18 and a strong labor market that is sucking young people straight into the workforce.

Why Americans are increasingly dubious about going to college (nbcnews.com)

Is this necessarily a bad thing?

For quite a while now I've been reading that many who go to college and take on the debt of paying for it would have done better to get different schooling and a good paying job.

The debt college students absorb in the USA is a virtual crime that we should be ashamed of!  It's been calculated that young people in 16 other countries have a greater chance of achieving "The American Dream" than in the USA.  Some American students go to college overseas because of the cost in America.

But we should also be ashamed of laying huge amounts of debt on students studying sociology, philosophy, and watered-down majors that generally do not lead to good-paying jobs and/or have 10 college grad. applicants for every job opening.

A lot of the dropoff in students is due to the cost of college.

The Americans who grew up in the Great Depression saw to it that commuter branches of State Colleges were built with basic amenities and that the State governments paid into them so students only paid about 1/3 what would have been the full, but low, tuition.

Now, college has become extremely expensive for two reasons:

1) colleges, even branch campuses, have made themselves into country clubs to compete for students with each other, with tennis courts lit all night and more, including dormitories with bath and shower rooms in each room - and sometimes kitchenettes and mini-living rooms for every four private bedrooms.  When I went to IIT in 1973, we had two to a room, a common lavatory/shower room off the middle of the floor, and a desk, bed/rollaway couch, dresser, and closet on each side of the room.  That was enough!

2) governments have cut back on the percent of tuition covered.

I had a lot of good students in the high school Gifted and Talented Chemistry and Physics classes up to 2006 that did NOT go on to college because of the extreme tuitions or went to the local community college. It's even worse now!

I was able to get several of my students, who wanted to become chemists, college scholarships at UMBC through the Chemistry Dept. over the years who couldn't have otherwise gone.  One of them, on her drive to UMBC, stopped at McD's near our school every Friday for a year and brought me breakfast at the high school.

When I went to undergrad college in the late 60's, early 70's, I was able to work my way through with jobs at a fast-food place, a summer shipyard job plus fast-food one summer, and an on-campus chemistry research job my last two years.  I did have a $2400 student loan, but that was due to my family having no car and I bought one so I could commute.  I was fortunate to get a full scholarship to grad school at IIT ($50,490/yr now) and a teaching assistantship ($325/month for 9 months/yr, $2170 in 2022 $) so it didn't add to my loan.

Today that $2400 would be $16,000, but today's students who worked as I did would need $50,000 to $75,000 in loans just for tuition and books for undergrad college, plus additional money for a car and gas to commute.

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1 hour ago, maddmaxx said:

There are 4 million fewer students in college now than there were 10 years ago, a falloff many observers blame on Covid-19, a dip in the number of Americans under 18 and a strong labor market that is sucking young people straight into the workforce.

Why Americans are increasingly dubious about going to college (nbcnews.com)

Is this necessarily a bad thing?

For quite a while now I've been reading that many who go to college and take on the debt of paying for it would have done better to get different schooling and a good paying job.

Bad? Good? Both. Neither.

Our country is growing. LESS educated folks is NOT a good thing - as a percentage of the population or as a raw number.  If you can replace "formal" education with other kinds of education - on the job or vocational or some other kind - AND in the fields that result in a productive and/ fulfilling life, then the college path is clearly not the only path.  But if not going to college is NOT replaced with some other path of growth and achievement, it's a horrible thing especially for the folks who doom themselves to not growing.

The college debt thing? That's a different thing altogether and, like payday loans, is also more complex but has a definite downside (but upsides as well).

Many of our labor shortages are because we fail to match up the needs with the education pipeline.  If we need more medical doctors and fewer folks with law degrees, there is obviously a disconnect somewhere that we're still producing more law degrees than we need and not enough doctors.  

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I will say this since I am from a family where myself and 5 siblings did all graduate from university. Some of us have 2 degrees. Myself and sister with medical degree. 

We all have better paying jobs and standard of living, than our parents or grandparents or further back in history. 

It is also incredibly obvious within our own family and extended family, tremendous value and support, to draw upon trained expertise from family members when the need arises in:  health care/medicine/drug therapy and law. And even those with engineering backgrounds, they know fundamentals of structural design..though I realize some of this can be practical knowledge gained from doing hands-on stuff.

I can't even begin to stress how important it is, to have the right language to advocate for yourself/loved ones, and to communicate intelligently, with other professionals outside of the family.

It is important these days for many jobs,  if a person doesn't take any training courses, they be prepared for life, to learn well, whatever the employers teach/offer training programs and not resist change when the employer must embark on that corporate change, especially if it will not compromise your safety or mental health.

 

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2 hours ago, BR46 said:

There's good money to be made working in the trades that were overlooked for years because everyone was told that if you want to make money you have to go to college. 

I know several people who have a $60,000 useless piece of paper from a college. They went to college but can make more money working as a bar tender. 

My SIL and my nieces husband are an interesting example of this.  SIL is a university grad, CPA and tax accountant.    Nieces husband went to work out of HS as an apprentice carpenter and is now a Union foreman.  Both are in their late 20’s and both are earning  over $100K salaries.

But… My SIL is nowhere near his income ceiling where as my nieces husband is nearing his.

I tend to be of the opinion that education is never a bad thing.  I consider it an investment in yourself.  It’s what you do with it that really matters.

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1 hour ago, Philander Seabury said:

Colleges are a complete scam and they have priced themselves oot of the market. I say let ‘em die!

The system that we have created where academia needs to justify it's existence.  Schools making money hand over fist (at the expense of impressionable 18 year old kids) to employ a bunch of professors that could not hack it in the real world.  

 

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6 minutes ago, ChrisL said:

I tend to be of the opinion that education is never a bad thing.  I consider it an investment in yourself.  It’s what you do with it that really matters.

Much of the challenge seems to be in asking 18yrs olds to make the correct life decisions.  It works out for some, fails for others, and for most, it is somewhere in the middle.

If I had a kid who loved working with their hands, I would absolutely encourage a path in life that took that into account. Same with if a kid was artistic. College is a great option. The military is a great option. The vocational path is a great option. A service career is a great option. Any or all are great options for the right person with the right interests.

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I also think we are getting too wrapped up in how expensive college is. There are alternative routes than a prestigious University.  My wife and I went the JC to State University route.  Now I had my Army money but we paid for my wife’s tuition.  My daughter also went the State College route and we paid her tuition. There are numerous grants & scholarship available to those who seek them out and kids can also work while in school.

My son and I have discussed college and he really doesn’t enjoy school and notes many of the reasons cited here for not going.  Of course I would like to see him go to school but not until he’s ready to see it through.   He’s working a job using his brawn but he is a really smart kid, he just dislikes school. 

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6 minutes ago, ChrisL said:

I also think we are getting too wrapped up in how expensive college is. There are alternative routes than a prestigious University.  My wife and I went the JC to State University route.  Now I had my Army money but we paid for my wife’s tuition.  My daughter also went the State College route and we paid her tuition. There are numerous grants & scholarship available to those who seek them out and kids can also work while in school.

My son and I have discussed college and he really doesn’t enjoy school and notes many of the reasons cited here for not going.  Of course I would like to see him go to school but not until he’s ready to see it through.   He’s working a job using his brawn but he is a really smart kid, he just dislikes school. 

This is how I did it.  Fail first attempt.  Navy.  GI Bill to return to community college. Pratt and Whitney apprenticeship in electronics.  Associates degree and extra credits from Pratt and night school eventually led to degree (s)

In the end I was already established in my industry and the degrees were just window dressing.  Those skills I learned in the Navy and the Pratt program were more valuable than the college work.

I agree that college is great for some but I believe it is pushed on far too many.

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18 minutes ago, Kzoo said:

Why should I be ashamed?  I didn't incur their debt.  I don't make money from their questionable choices.

Compare what it cost to get a 4 year degree from a state college in 1985ish to now

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/04/heres-how-much-college-cost-the-year-you-were-born.html

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8 minutes ago, jsharr said:

Compare what it cost to get a 4 year degree from a state college in 1985ish to now

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/04/heres-how-much-college-cost-the-year-you-were-born.html

$8,730 for annual average state cost per your link in 1973.

$21,370 in 2019

$8,730 in 1973 adjusted for inflation is the equivalent of $60,715 in 2022.  

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The most important thing in all this is the accountability of a university / college on par with the calibre of its educational programs (is the program accredited?)

For our municipality and probably all major cities across Canada, there is a breakdown per taxpayer how much money went to specific municipal services.  Serving the public directly is for real and reporting /discussing how money should be/is spent is already discussed at public city council meetings and public standing policy committees. The videos and meeting minutes are all made available for public to comb through, read up....well forever folks. That's how open things can be.   

However for universities and colleges there is probably this soft fuzzy value to society vs. just how computer science grads did it pump out, etc.  Do we ever hear how efficiently or inefficiently a university is run?  Is there ever a legislated mechanism or forum for educators and other interested folks?  Sometimes there are on niche topics where if you've got connections, you'll sit in with a lead researcher for a study that involves public participation.

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Where are the guidance counselors and programs in high school? Do they no longer exist? Also smart students try and land internships and jobs while in school, and these allow them to see how well they fit into their chosen field of study. These approaches greatly cut down on the waste. Not sure I would have gone to college this day and time, with the debt facing graduates. Although, there was no way to have my career without college and post graduate studies.

One of my chemistry profs at the University of Arizona told all of us, that if we were going to graduate school to make more money, we should think again. The folks we graduated with in under graduate school and started to work right after graduation would always be ahead of us in money. They were drawing salaries and getting advances while we were still paying to go to school and making a small amount of monies from scholarships. Those of us that knew what we wanted to do stayed with the program.

Those with drive will succeed in college or in the trades, whatever they chose. You have to be willing to get up in the morning and forge ahead. No one can do it for you.

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6 hours ago, Philander Seabury said:

Colleges are a complete scam and they have priced themselves oot of the market. I say let ‘em die!

There is another side to it that, unfortunately, I was unaware of until my son told me when he began working at Yale. The key is being accepted.

While undegraduate are expected to pull the load, with the endowment and research grants at Yale, Harvard and Ivey league, Masters/PhD is virtually 100% paid for in each of the Colleges, irrespective if it is a PhD in English or nuclear physics. In retrospect, with my daughter while the Lottery Scholarship paid for most of undergraduate, the research grant funded her TA position during her PhD at SUNY Stoneybrook. I would throw her a few hundred as needed, but both son and daughter completed degrees with no debt. My son did create some debt with his MBA. Yale has a continuing education employee benefit to study anywhere BUT Yale. He got his MBA at the local Albertus Magnus (private Catholic University) but the stipend wasn't enough to cover 100%.

My brother, who is a professor at an Osteopathic Medical School, primarily teaching organic chemistry and associate dean for admissions, relayed an interesting dialog. Potential students typically have two or three acceptance letters deciding between. Invariably, during the admissions interview the applicant will ask the question "How much are you going to pay me to attend?"  As I look back it was similar with my daughter. She was accepted at University of Calif Davis, but with the tight State budget they didn't have the funds to offer her. Univ of South Florida sent her a rejection letter so she accepted at Stoneybrook. A couple days later, the professor at So Florida called, looking forward to working with her, blah, blah, blah. Apparently the Admissions office sent the letter out in error, but since she already accepted at Stoneybrook, didn't back out.

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4 hours ago, maddmaxx said:

This is how I did it.  Fail first attempt.  Navy.  GI Bill to return to community college. Pratt and Whitney apprenticeship in electronics.  Associates degree and extra credits from Pratt and night school eventually led to degree (s)

In the end I was already established in my industry and the degrees were just window dressing.  Those skills I learned in the Navy and the Pratt program were more valuable than the college work.

I agree that college is great for some but I believe it is pushed on far too many.

Same here.  First attempt failed.  Navy.  Second attempt Community College for nursing.  

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I really think in some parts of an university there's deadwood, the tenure system creates a sort of competition only known to those in that subject discipline and much of it is research and publication based.  It doesn't address the researcher who is often required to teach some courses and their instructional style. For sure, they may be evaluated by students plus the internet is a loose way of seeing it which one is never clear if it was truly a problem with the instructor vs. the student's "expectations"/vindictive rant.  I have seen some online student comments about my BIL as an engineering faculty instructor. He is a professor...actually associated with Institute of Aerospace Studies at Univ. of Toronto....more rightly he should be in Engineering Sciences.

I am glad not to have worked at a university ...though I was interviewed by various universities.  

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Thinking about it, I have a lot of college educated siblings and cousins of my generation.  I'd say all are MILES ahead in the ROI from college degrees by now EXCEPT my one sister who is a veterinarian.  She is only five years out of vet school and still owes a LOT of money.  She made the mistake of a private undergrad education followed immediately by vet school which was 100% of her time - ie no working while going through school.  

She's only 32, so she has many HIGH earning years ahead of her to catch up.  Long term ROI looks really good for her, but short term, it's tough.  

Another sister, went to a state college, taught for a little bit, got married, and is now letting her hubby do the heavy lifting income-wise, while she runs a small pre-school.  She loves it, but she definitely isn't making a lot of money (but doesn't need to).

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18 minutes ago, Parr8hed said:

Same here.  First attempt failed.  Navy.  Second attempt Community College for nursing.  

Similar. My college roommate failed first attempt and while he had a high draft number, quickly joined the Air Force before the Army drafted him for Vietnam. With me, While I graduated from HS in 1969, I was #19 on the lottery and couldn't fail as I would lose my student deferment. Four years later and two months before I graduated, they abolished the draft with the wind down of Vietnam. My later military service was voluntary.

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7 hours ago, Philander Seabury said:

Colleges are a complete scam and they have priced themselves oot of the market. I say let ‘em die!

In the past 15 years,  definition of college in CAnada has gotten blurred which now many have become "universities". Yet from what I can see their curriculum for certain faculties of study, I'm sorry it is at a "B" or "C" level. If a student nowadays doesn't understand these nuances especially if they want to advance to Master's level and higher.  One could very easily waste their money at the wrong institution because no one told the student.  

For instance to become P.Eng (professional engineer to apply a seal) in Canada....you have to go through a CAnadian university and graduate from an engineering program.  It's not achieved via a college level that calls themselves a "university".  

My comment does not apply to some great technical Canadian colleges with strong well- established technical programs and terrific track record for employers interested in hiring the grads.  

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If one wishes to spend money, then start off looking for accredited programs which means national or international well-established  body for the profession has developed specific criteria for identifying a body of knowledge which includes principles, theory, concepts and learning outcomes.  That theory needs to hold for that body of knowledge and be applicable 2-4 decades onward into the future....regardless of technological change.

 

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6 hours ago, Parr8hed said:

The system that we have created where academia needs to justify it's existence.  Schools making money hand over fist (at the expense of impressionable 18 year old kids) to employ a bunch of professors that could not hack it in the real world.  

 

Painting with a pretty broad brush!

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8 hours ago, Razors Edge said:

 But if not going to college is NOT replaced with some other path of growth and achievement, it's a horrible thing especially for the folks who doom themselves to not growing.

From the OP linked article. 

Workforce participation for 16- to 24-year-olds is lower than it was before Covid hit, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, or BLS, reports.

That tells me many are NOT doing anything, except possibly living with their parrents.  :(  That isn't a good plan for these young people.

Also from the article;

Focus groups and public opinion surveys point to other, less easily solved reasons for the sharp downward trend. These include widespread and fast-growing skepticism about the value of a degree, impatience with the time it takes to get one, and costs that have finally exceeded many people’s ability or willingness to pay.  

My guess...  many people who spent $100K+ for a college degree, and now have college loans to pay back, did NOT consider WHAT degree to get and how much 'return on their investment' they would realize when (or if) they got a job in their field of study.   Some HS graduates may have figured this out.  

I worked as much as I could when I was in college.   I worked on cars, installed chain link fences, worked for a HVAC business, worked for a catering service, and I worked for a publisher that specialized in teaching materials for corporate training classes.   

There was a hospital (not it's closed) within walking distance of my apartment In Milwaukee when I was a senior in college.  I applied for a job in there housekeeping/janitor/etc.. dept  I was told I was 'over qualified' for the job.  :scratchhead:  I told the guy... "Fine... exploit me then.  I'll be your best employee."   He still said no.  My guess, he didn't want to hire me and then replace me in a year, after I graduated. 

The one thing I noticed about this article;  Average College Graduate Salaries

  • The average college graduate salary is $55,260 in 2022.
  • $85,000 was the most common starting salary expected by college students.

That says a lot...  about false expectations.

10 hours ago, BR46 said:

There's good money to be made working in the trades that were overlooked for years because everyone was told that if you want to make money you have to go to college. 

When we built our home 4 years ago, that is when I realized how many people were NOT working in the trades.   Finding trades people then was difficult. I'll guess it's even worse now.

The guy who installed our tile floors, told me he could work 24 hours a day if he wanted the work.  

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46 minutes ago, sheep_herder said:
7 hours ago, Parr8hed said:

The system that we have created where academia needs to justify it's existence.  Schools making money hand over fist (at the expense of impressionable 18 year old kids) to employ a bunch of professors that could not hack it in the real world.  

 

Painting with a pretty broad brush!

I'd suggest... that many of these students wouldn't know how to paint with a brush. ;)  They learn that, when they can't find a job for a degree in Elizabethan poetry that cost $100K. 

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23 minutes ago, Bikeguy said:

When we built our home 4 years ago, that is when I realized how many people were NOT working in the trades.   Finding trades people then was difficult. I'll guess it's even worse now.

The guy who installed our tile floors, told me he could work 24 hours a day if he wanted the work.  

My neighbor complained about contractors not even returning his phone calls and if you're not booked almost a year in advance.......

If you go to our local tech school for welding I personally know 3 of the instructors. They tell me companies will hire you before you graduate and pay for your schooling. 

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9 minutes ago, BR46 said:

My neighbor complained about contractors not even returning his phone calls and if you're not booked almost a year in advance.......

If you go to our local tech school for welding I personally know 3 of the instructors. They tell me companies will hire you before you graduate and pay for your schooling. 

Too bad I'm not 20 now...   I'd consider an auto repair business.  

My first dream was starting a business, a traveling auto repair business.   I made a LOT of money  (that helped to pay for college) driving to a customer's home and doing tune-ups and small repairs at their homes.  People LOVED not having to drive to a place to wait to get their car repaired.   That may even be a better business plan now. 

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2 minutes ago, Bikeguy said:

Too bad I'm not 20 now...   I'd consider an auto repair business.  

My first dream was starting a business, a traveling auto repair business.   I made a LOT of money  (that helped to pay for college) driving to a customer's home and doing tune-ups and small repairs at their homes.  People LOVED not having to drive to a place to wait to get their car repaired.   That may even be a better business plan now. 

When I growing up my dad was friends with a guy who had a mobile welding business. You should have seen the size of his house and the land that it was on.

When he got a call his pay started when he hung up the phone and got paid until he returned to the shop. 

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15 hours ago, Bikeguy said:

From the OP linked article. 

Workforce participation for 16- to 24-year-olds is lower than it was before Covid hit, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, or BLS, reports.

That tells me many are NOT doing anything, except possibly living with their parrents.  :(  That isn't a good plan for these young people.

Also from the article;

Focus groups and public opinion surveys point to other, less easily solved reasons for the sharp downward trend. These include widespread and fast-growing skepticism about the value of a degree, impatience with the time it takes to get one, and costs that have finally exceeded many people’s ability or willingness to pay.  

My guess...  many people who spent $100K+ for a college degree, and now have college loans to pay back, did NOT consider WHAT degree to get and how much 'return on their investment' they would realize when (or if) they got a job in their field of study.   Some HS graduates may have figured this out.  

I worked as much as I could when I was in college.   I worked on cars, installed chain link fences, worked for a HVAC business, worked for a catering service, and I worked for a publisher that specialized in teaching materials for corporate training classes.   

There was a hospital (not it's closed) within walking distance of my apartment In Milwaukee when I was a senior in college.  I applied for a job in there housekeeping/janitor/etc.. dept  I was told I was 'over qualified' for the job.  :scratchhead:  I told the guy... "Fine... exploit me then.  I'll be your best employee."   He still said no.  My guess, he didn't want to hire me and then replace me in a year, after I graduated. 

The one thing I noticed about this article;  Average College Graduate Salaries

  • The average college graduate salary is $55,260 in 2022.
  • $85,000 was the most common starting salary expected by college students.

That says a lot...  about false expectations.

When we built our home 4 years ago, that is when I realized how many people were NOT working in the trades.   Finding trades people then was difficult. I'll guess it's even worse now.

The guy who installed our tile floors, told me he could work 24 hours a day if he wanted the work.  

I think the thing to remember and it relies on "averages" across the whole population is that a high school only education has an avg salary of $50k, and an average college undergraduate degree has an average of $81k.  Over a period of your working life - 30 yrs or so - that's $1 MILLION if not invested and many millions if invested and nurtured.  (Trade school and the military are two value adds as well & which I think no one is discounting.)

To some degree, it is even the difference between folks HAVING retirement and savings vs not and relying on Social Security, disappearing pensions, or just continued work.  

Yes, college loans could subtract from that college degree's earnings true value for several years, but even the "Elizabethan poetry" kids eventually find a job, and ticking the "college graduate" box on many corporations job application is more than enough to get a foot in the door.  Right or wrong, it has value.

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17 hours ago, sheep_herder said:

Painting with a pretty broad brush!

That is really painting a broad brush. 

I really doubt the 1-2 licensed engineers in this forum, could remember and teach on the same undergraduate and graduate level some of the courses my BIL engineering professor does for past 3 decades. It's the type of math that fills traditionally the whole wall... like what you see in "Hidden Figures" movies.

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