The European (British) Meteorolists beat the U.S. Meteorologists Again

[MickinMD ★]

The U.S. forecasters had initially forecast potential-hurricane Hermine to come ashore in Louisiana and the Europeans predicted Florida.

If we didn't have the Europeans, Louisiana would have been the predicted target.

If you look at the number of hurricanes predicted for each season over the past decade, the Europeans have pretty much nailed it and the U.S. is farther off.

I wonder if we're getting poorer forecasts because the U.S. Weather Service is too proud to borrow from the European modeling system?

I hope it doesn't gather much strength because it looks like most of FL will get it before it's expected to go up the East Coast, where the water is warmer than usual and it could easily pick up strength if its centered over the ocean.

 

[Thaddeus Kosciuszko]

2 minutes ago, MickinMD said:

I wonder if we're getting poorer forecasts because the U.S. Weather Service is too proud to borrow from the European modeling system?

 

I thinks it's just the US forecasters living up to their reputation. 

[Razors Edge ★]

22 minutes ago, MickinMD said:

I wonder if we're getting poorer forecasts because the U.S. Weather Service is too proud to borrow from the European modeling system?

Usually @BuffJim's stuff has like a dozen lines for the various different models.  Is there a bunch under the USWS and one under the Euros? Or are there different weather-heads behind each model?

[Zealot]

British? US?  Pfffft...

Yanet!

[Prophet Zacharia]

13 minutes ago, Zealot said:

British? US?  Pfffft...

Yanet!

The study of meteorology is very fascinating when the Spanish language is involved.

[Zealot]

39 minutes ago, Prophet Zacharia said:

The study of meteorology is very fascinating when the Spanish language is involved.

Si! Es verdad. Me gusta mas! 

[Zealot]

46 minutes ago, Prophet Zacharia said:

The study of meteorology is very fascinating when the Spanish language is involved.

Comi se dice....  enamorando!

[Tizeye]

Nothing that a Sharpie won't correct.

[Prophet Zacharia]

10 hours ago, Tizeye said:

Nothing that a Sharpie won't correct.

Alabama is more doomed than it knows!

[maddmaxx ★]

12 hours ago, Tizeye said:

Nothing that a Sharpie won't correct.

You are a bad bad man.  

[MickinMD ★]

On 9/23/2022 at 1:19 PM, Razors Edge said:

Usually @BuffJim's stuff has like a dozen lines for the various different models.  Is there a bunch under the USWS and one under the Euros? Or are there different weather-heads behind each model?

Some of those lines are from the U.S. models and some from the European models.  Earlier in the week they were showing a several lines spread between Louisianna and Florida.  The Louisiana end was the U.S. model and the Florida lines were the European Model.

Here's the lines or "ensemble" model earlier this week - yellow is European:

I'm not expert enough to know if the British European model is best, but the times I've seen them compared, the European model does better.