Yikes - The Real Estate Bubble Watch

[Razors Edge ★]

...and it doesn't look good for the ones in red:

You know, when San Fran and NYC aren't "the bad ones" that those top six are in scary bad risky territory   Heck, Seattle didn't even make the list, so I don't get what all @Dottles beotching has been about.

Tom

[shootingstar]

Yea, lets wait for the major Vancouver earthquake.  The real estate value will literally fall flat on its face. No, a lot of bldgs. aren't earthquake-proofed/protected.

I never believed the young man last week who lives in San Fran. now for past few years and was visiting his parents in Vancouver...he claimed SAn Fran. was worse. Innocence..well, is just dumb.  I was in Vancouver last wk.

[MickinMD ★]

Part of the problem in my area is that virtually the only new homes being built are $599K and more where starter homes used to be built at around avg. home prices (about $250K). I think that's a similar problem throughout the country and developers are finding it more and more difficult to find prime-location, undeveloped property so they want to milk it for all they can with the highest-priced houses they think they can sell.

So many buying their first home have to look at the existing housing market and that drives those prices up, even though the avg. mortgage rate rose to around 4.7% last week.

My fixed-rate mortgage in 1991 was 9.5%/15 yrs, refinanced to 6.625%/15 years two years later, then refinanced to 5.4%/4 years when 6 years were left on the mortgage.

So I look at 4.7% as very reasonable: it means that a starter home's mortgage + escrow will probably be less than paying rent within 7 years.  Of course, in places like New York, San Francisco, some resort towns, etc., the prices and the property taxes are way beyond the means of most, but buying a home is still a no-brainer if you plan to stay in the area for at least 7 years in most of the country.

[KrAzY]

Homes here in Texas where I live are over valued but a metric shit ton then anywhere else I lived. When we were looking at homes, a home that should go for about 180k was selling for around 280k+. Some homes needed about 100k+ worth of work and we're selling for 350k. 

The prices are slowly stabilizing now, but are still higher then what the asking price should be. Worst part is that a lot of people are moving to the area, and some homes sold before even hitting the market with 5 different family's bidding on it. More then likely the hole sold more then asking price.

I got to see what one house was vs what it was bought for 3 years prior. It went up 185k in three years with no work done to it.

[tybeegb]

Tybee's bubble burst in the late 1990s.  Big drop in prices for old and new homes.  Now, homes and what little land there is has gone way up again.  A house across the marsh is listed for 639K, and is a really nice house but very little land.  And there are more than a few valued and for sale at well over a million.  We really don't care about value except for taxes and insurance, and the value would have to drop WAY down to get to what we paid for it.  And it's paid for.  

[Wilbur ★]

22 hours ago, shootingstar said:

Yea, lets wait for the major Vancouver earthquake.  The real estate value will literally fall flat on its face. No, a lot of bldgs. aren't earthquake-proofed/protected.

I never believed the young man last week who lives in San Fran. now for past few years and was visiting his parents in Vancouver...he claimed SAn Fran. was worse. Innocence..well, is just dumb.  I was in Vancouver last wk.

You may be waiting a while.  My Dad lived in Vancouver all 83 years of his life and never experienced one.  It will happen one day and that day may be tomorrow or 5000 years from now.  The infrastructure is considerably better than in past. 

[Wilbur ★]

22 hours ago, Razors Edge said:

...and it doesn't look good for the ones in red:

You know, when San Fran and NYC aren't "the bad ones" that those top six are in scary bad risky territory   Heck, Seattle didn't even make the list, so I don't get what all @Dottles beotching has been about.

Tom

There is no shortage of monied Asians flocking to Vancouver and Toronto.  Both provincial governments have acted to control pricing.  The effects have been minimal and the markets are forecast to climb through the barriers placed.  Canada, has been sold to the elfin Chinese.