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Wilbur

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I have a pastor friend that just returned from Africa.  He was on that same flight on Monday morning.  Ethiopia Airlines still had him on a 737 MAX at that time.  Just before they boarded, the equipment was changed to a Dreamliner.  It made his flight quite late but I think they all felt better about it.  He is home safe and sound.

 

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I think there is significant reason to ground it.  Firstly, there is an issue with the MCAS.  That is the stall protection system new to the 737 Max 8.  There is increasing evidence that flight crews are not being made aware of the system which is a problem.  It can be disabled but if crews are unfamiliar with both the problem and the fix, accidents are going to happen.   Disabling it, disables the entire stall protection system so that isn't an option as a precaution.  If a malfunction happens at a low altitude, the crews may not have the physical opportunity to recognize the issue and successfully disable it. 

Training is one issue, overall flight crew experience and crew culture is also a huge factor.  It may not be a coincidence that third world carriers have experienced the accidents.  There have been the same reported MCAS issues in the US but have been handled effectively by the crew.  This is probably not type specific experience but overall experience and elementary training. 

The airlines and FAA are all saying, we know there is an issue and have now trained the crews.  That is an unacceptable fix and regulators are probably reacting to the pressure of commerce, both from manufacturers and airlines.  I have experienced that willful dismissal by the FAA in my career first hand.  They get too cozy with companies the size of Boeing. 

So, until there is a proven fix, a working algorithm for the MCAS or a means of disabling the system at lower altitudes as a normal procedure, I will avoid the airplane. 

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As a former aircraft mechanic, I find it difficult to think that having the aircraft doing something different than the aircrew inputs is not a good idea. How would you like your car to not stop when you press on the brakes? From what I gather, it takes 3 actions to disable the MCAS system. In an emergency, that might be too much to do.

From what I read, Boeing wanted to make the 737 Max 8 so similar to fly that the aircrews wouldn't need much additional training. However the larger engines on the Max 8 are moved forward on the wing for clearance which makes things somewhat different to fly. Seems that Boeing wanted their aircraft cake and eat it too.

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1 minute ago, JerrySTL said:

As a former aircraft mechanic, I find it difficult to think that having the aircraft doing something different than the aircrew inputs is not a good idea. How would you like your car to not stop when you press on the brakes? From what I gather, it takes 3 actions to disable the MCAS system. In an emergency, that might be too much to do.

From what I read, Boeing wanted to make the 737 Max 8 so similar to fly that the aircrews wouldn't need much additional training. However the larger engines on the Max 8 are moved forward on the wing for clearance which makes things somewhat different to fly. Seems that Boeing wanted their aircraft cake and eat it too.

Airbus was pretty effective in achieving that on the 318, 319, 320, 321 models but some common type certificates yield big differences.  I have a 757 type endorsement and can fly the 767 because of it.  Same systems but two very different aircraft operationally.   I always thought the FAA had an odd approach to common type certificates.  My FAA license has a LR-Jet endorsement.  That entitles me to fly the Lear 23. 24, 25, 28, 29, 35, 36 and 55.   So, unducted jets to turbofans and electromechanical to all EFIS.  Makes no sense. 

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I was on the fence till I heard the news this morning that the crew had reported flight control problems and asked for a return to the airport.  Prior to this morning all I had heard was an unconfirmed witness (from someone on the ground)report that the engines were smoking.  It was not clear that this was a similar accident till this morning's news.  It appears that several operators knew about this earlier and grounded the aircraft with good reason.  This serves to point out that we the public know remarkably little about what's going on in the early days of a news report.

And yes, helpful aids in automobiles aren't always the best thing for you.  There are numerous reports of self braking cars causing accidents even though overall they reduce accidents.  In Japan in 2017 there were 340 reported incidents of which 88 involved the brakes not working and the rest reporting instances where the brakes were applied without cause.  The net result was 88 accidents and one fatality. (not specified which caused what)

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15 minutes ago, Wilbur said:

So, unducted jets to turbofans

I remember the first time that I did an engine run on a turbojet engine aircraft. I'd been working on turbofans which took a few seconds to spool up. I pushed the throttles forward fast on the turbojet and it created thrust RIGHT NOW. I thought that I was going to jump the chocks on that one.

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So, if you wonder if you are on a 737 Max (and can't just check with Wilbur), there are relatively simple methods to do so ahead of time.  And this graphic shows the confidence US carriers have in Boeing.

image.png.e6f1f208331d06ae32aab3daf456e2d9.png

 

Also, I wonder how the 737 Max 9 differs in design?

According to the U.S. Federal Aviation Authority (FAA), there are 54 carriers operating around 350 Boeing 737 Max 8 aircraft worldwide. No U.S. carrier has grounded the planes, but Southwest Airlines and American Airlines both operate 737 Max 8 aircraft (United Airlines uses the 737 Max 9, a newer version). All three airlines have issued statements regarding their confidence in the aircraft’s safety.

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15 minutes ago, Razors Edge said:

So, if you wonder if you are on a 737 Max (and can't just check with Wilbur), there are relatively simple methods to do so ahead of time.  And this graphic shows the confidence US carriers have in Boeing.

image.png.e6f1f208331d06ae32aab3daf456e2d9.png

 

Also, I wonder how the 737 Max 9 differs in design?

According to the U.S. Federal Aviation Authority (FAA), there are 54 carriers operating around 350 Boeing 737 Max 8 aircraft worldwide. No U.S. carrier has grounded the planes, but Southwest Airlines and American Airlines both operate 737 Max 8 aircraft (United Airlines uses the 737 Max 9, a newer version). All three airlines have issued statements regarding their confidence in the aircraft’s safety.

It's a slightly longer version of the same plane.

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One thing most people don't consider.  The regulatory bodies approve aircraft predicated on acceptable risk.  That doesn't remove probability of an accident, it just reduces it to acceptable deaths per flight hour.   That line has been crossed with Canada's regulatory body as well as the JAA in Europe and many Asian regulatory bodies. .  Not yet, the FAA's. 

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3 hours ago, Goat Geddah said:

Glad you asked.  I'm curious on your thoughts.  Is grounding the plane called for now, or is that an over reaction?

It's my understanding that Southwest, which exclusively flies 737's, has flown over 11,000 flights without issue with the 737 MAX 8 over the past two years.  There are a total of two problem reports in NASA's database, from other airlines, on that plane where the automation wanted to drop the nose and descend and audibly announced it.  In both cases the TRAINED pilots flipped the switch to shut off the autopilot, instantly solving the problem. They speculated that unusual atmospheric conditions may have triggered the events.

My last two flights were on Southwest and I wouldn't hesitate to do my next two lower-cost, no-frills flights with Southwest again.

Personal Disclosure:  Southwest (LUV) stock is 8% of my personal stock portfolio, is a long-term hold I expect to keep holding and adding to, and it's been up 1% to 2% today after the U.S. Government announced it will not ground the 737 MAX 8.

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4 minutes ago, MickinMD said:

It's my understanding that Southwest, which exclusively flies 737's, has flown over 11,000 flights without issue with the 737 MAX 8 over the past two years.  There are a total of two problem reports in NASA's database, from other airlines, on that plane where the automation wanted to drop the nose and descend and audibly announced it.  In both cases the TRAINED pilots flipped the switch to shut off the autopilot, instantly solving the problem. They speculated that unusual atmospheric conditions may have triggered the events.

My last two flights were on Southwest and I wouldn't hesitate to do my next two lower-cost, no-frills flights with Southwest again.

Personal Disclosure:  Southwest (LUV) stock is 8% of my personal stock portfolio and it's been up 1% to 2% today after the U.S. Government announced it will not ground the 737 MAX 8.

I suspect that number is much larger.  Here is a claim of at least 5 reports.

https://www.dallasnews.com/business/airlines/2019/03/12/boeing-737-max-8-pilots-complained-feds-months-suspected-safety-flaw

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44 minutes ago, MickinMD said:

It's my understanding that Southwest, which exclusively flies 737's, has flown over 11,000 flights without issue with the 737 MAX 8 over the past two years.  There are a total of two problem reports in NASA's database, from other airlines, on that plane where the automation wanted to drop the nose and descend and audibly announced it.  In both cases the TRAINED pilots flipped the switch to shut off the autopilot, instantly solving the problem. They speculated that unusual atmospheric conditions may have triggered the events.

My last two flights were on Southwest and I wouldn't hesitate to do my next two lower-cost, no-frills flights with Southwest again.

Personal Disclosure:  Southwest (LUV) stock is 8% of my personal stock portfolio, is a long-term hold I expect to keep holding and adding to, and it's been up 1% to 2% today after the U.S. Government announced it will not ground the 737 MAX 8.

While MCAS is an autopilot function, flipping an autopilot switch may not solve the problem.  MCAS works during manual flight as well and is an always active autopilot function.  To disable it requires several actions.  There are a number of subsystem failures that can cause control problems.  If, like in the Lion Air crash, an angle of attack system fails, you will have warnings of airspeed miscomputes, altitude miscomputes, stick shaker on the affected side which indicates an impending stall and then MCAS input stuffing the nose down and the control column (fly by wire) has no effect.   When you are close proximity to the ground, there is little time to resolve and trouble shoot and there are numerous warnings all distracting you.  We train for it in the sim but are briefed ahead of time and it is front and centre in the brain.  That is something we don't have out in the field. 

It's a bad system and the airplane should be grounded until there is resolve. Like I said though, you can bet there are a lot of calls between the FAA, airlines who use them and Boeing right now.  The FAA is pretty much a stand alone approval right now with nearly all other regulators erring on the side of safety. 

Long and short, the incidents cited may be a different failure within the same system but not the same failure.  

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Local News is announcing that Pres. Trump has just grounded the 737 Max 8's - earlier today it was announced the government would not ground them.

Southwest has 35 of them and financial analysts say they'll have no trouble replacing them without cancelling flights until the investigations are concluded. Southwest's new flights to Hawaii began with an extra low-cost bonus program which is sold out through the next couple of months.

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4 minutes ago, MickinMD said:

Local News is announcing that Pres. Trump has just grounded the 737 Max 8's - earlier today it was announced the government would not ground them.

Southwest has 35 of them and financial analysts say they'll have no trouble replacing them without cancelling flights until the investigations are concluded. Southwest's new flights to Hawaii began with an extra low-cost bonus program which is sold out through the next couple of months.

Mid morning there was further information in the form of satellite plots that show the Ethiopian flight had similar flight control problems to the Lion Air flight.   Boeing will work through it but a fix is needed to restore confidence.

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1 minute ago, Wilbur said:

Mid morning there was further information in the form of satellite plots that show the Ethiopian flight had similar flight control problems to the Lion Air flight.   Boeing will work through it but a fix is needed to restore confidence.

I think you're right - Boeing's going to need to change it's computerized control software and maybe hardware.  Part of the problem is that the engines are placed differently than on previous 737's and apparently stalling with the nose up is a greater potential problem because of it, so the automatic triggering of the winglets to push the nose down must be assigned a higher priority in the software.

There were some rumblings that the airlines might have put the planes in service before the pilots had been specifically trained for them, but that and almost all else is speculation now, though it's noteworthy that there have been no significant problems in hundreds of thousands of flights in two years among the major airlines.

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Just saw a cost estimate of between $1B and $5B for the grounding to Boeing.  Add to that the cost of the law suits from the two crashes and this could be catastrophic for Boeing.

 

Here is the source for @Goat Geddah and others.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/03/13/investing/boeing-max-737-grounding/

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15 minutes ago, jsharr said:

Just saw a cost estimate of between $1B and $5B for the grounding to Boeing.  Add to that the cost of the law suits from the two crashes and this could be catastrophic for Boeing.

Link?  I'd like to see what those B's represent.  If it's stock value that could be relatively short term...depending...

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46 minutes ago, MickinMD said:

Southwest's new flights to Hawaii began with an extra low-cost bonus program which is sold out through the next couple of months.

I assume that's the plane they were planning to fly to Hawaii? Do they have alternatives in their fleet that will make that flight, or will their Island business be put on hold until this resolves?

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