BuffJim Posted August 15, 2019 Share #1 Posted August 15, 2019 My beach vacation to Delaware is in jeopardy. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/back-loaded-hurricane-season-bearing-204201726.html (Bloomberg) -- Don’t be lulled by a quiet June and July, the real Atlantic hurricane season is about to kick off. The hurricane season runs from June 1 to the end of November. But the next six weeks -- “the season within a season” -- is regularly the most dangerous and active time for storms to develop in the Atlantic, said Dennis Feltgen, spokesman for the National Hurricane Center in Miami. Only two named storms have developed in the Atlantic so far this year. Dry, dusty air from Africa’s Sahara robbed potential storms of moisture, and wind shear spurred by the El Nino climate systems ripped apart budding storms. Now, those brakes on hurricane development are gone. The result: “A big change in the pattern over the Atlantic, going from a very lackluster quiet weather pattern to a much more active one,” said Dan Kottlowski, the lead hurricane forecaster at AccuWeather Inc. in State College, Pennsylvania. “We are thinking this season will be back-loaded.” Last week, the U.S. National Weather Service forecast 10 to 17 named storms in the Atlantic. Last year, there were 15, including hurricanes Florence and Michael that killed a combined 96 people and caused more than $49 billion in damage. A storm is named when it reaches tropical storm strength, with maximum sustained winds of at least 39 miles per hour. So far only two named storms have emerged in the Atlantic this year, and only one came during the hurricane season: Hurricane Barry, which looped through the Gulf of Mexico in July. At risk is $17 trillion in U.S. real estate along the coasts, as well as some of America’s most valuable commodities. More than 45% of U.S. refining capacity and 51% of gas processing is along the Gulf of Mexico coastline. Florida is the world’s second-largest producer of orange juice after Brazil. There are two other factors that could spur on storms in September, according to Bob Henson, a meteorologist with Weather Underground, an IBM business. The first is the so-called Madden-Julian Oscillation, a ripple of rising and sinking air that swirls through the atmosphere about every 45 to 60 days that can spark typhoons and hurricanes when combined with other factors. It could affect the Atlantic in late August or September, Henson said. The second is a fast-moving atmospheric system known as a “convectively-coupled kelvin wave” that’s affected by the earth’s rotation. When one runs into a tropical wave moving off Africa, it can give it a speedy boost to swirl into a hurricane or tropical storm. There is one now moving across the Pacific on its way to the Atlantic, Henson said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Razors Edge ★ Posted August 15, 2019 Share #2 Posted August 15, 2019 1 minute ago, BuffJim said: Last week, the U.S. National Weather Service forecast 10 to 17 named storms in the Atlantic. Last year, there were 15, including hurricanes Florence and Michael that killed a combined 96 people and caused more than $49 billion in damage. A storm is named when it reaches tropical storm strength, with maximum sustained winds of at least 39 miles per hour. I don't remember Florence nor Michael I doubt you have much to worry about. It is actually sort of fun being hunkered down during a hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffJim Posted August 15, 2019 Author Share #3 Posted August 15, 2019 Just now, Razors Edge said: I don't remember Florence nor Michael I doubt you have much to worry about. It is actually sort of fun being hunkered down during a hurricane. Florence was a prolific rainmaker in the Carolinas last September. Michael was a small but incredibly intense hurricane which devastated the sparsely populated areas just east of Panama City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jsharr ★ Posted August 15, 2019 Share #4 Posted August 15, 2019 So is riding out a hurricane from a very safe location on your bucket list? Seems like it would be sort of cool to be in a hardened concrete structure with a generator and view ports to ride out a hurricane. Would hate to see the loss to all the people that live in the path of destruction, but just seeing Nature at full force would be cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
late Posted August 15, 2019 Share #5 Posted August 15, 2019 Maine doesn't get hurricanes, although you might get wet. The last 2 weeks of August, and the first 2 weeks of Sept tend to have the best weather for a visit. We did all our bike and backpacking trips in the 2nd half of August. The bugs are mostly gone, the tourists are mostly gone, and the temps are mild, and usually dry. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dottleshead ★ Posted August 15, 2019 Share #6 Posted August 15, 2019 I want chowder. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
late Posted August 15, 2019 Share #7 Posted August 15, 2019 1 minute ago, Dottie said: I want chowder. Chowder we got. I want raw oysters, and with the wife's birthday coming, so are they. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffJim Posted August 15, 2019 Author Share #8 Posted August 15, 2019 18 minutes ago, jsharr said: So is riding out a hurricane from a very safe location on your bucket list? Seems like it would be sort of cool to be in a hardened concrete structure with a generator and view ports to ride out a hurricane. Would hate to see the loss to all the people that live in the path of destruction, but just seeing Nature at full force would be cool. Yes. If the area was under a mandatory evacuation order I’d leave. Or if I was afraid I’d get trapped somewhere I couldn’t get out of easily. My beach vacation is last week of September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maddmaxx ★ Posted August 15, 2019 Share #9 Posted August 15, 2019 28 minutes ago, jsharr said: So is riding out a hurricane from a very safe location on your bucket list? Seems like it would be sort of cool to be in a hardened concrete structure with a generator and view ports to ride out a hurricane. Would hate to see the loss to all the people that live in the path of destruction, but just seeing Nature at full force would be cool. I rode out one such in Key West when I was stationed there. Concrete Barracks with chicken wire laminated in the window glass. We were moved away from the windward side in the middle of the night when softball sized rocks started to fly in from the beachy area. Part of the base had to go outside during the eye though to retension some guy wires on tall radio masts before the wind changed direction. That was fun and it was one of the few times I've been hit by the same hurricane more than once as it looped out to Dry Tortuga or so and then turned around and came back. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dottleshead ★ Posted August 15, 2019 Share #10 Posted August 15, 2019 1 hour ago, maddmaxx said: ...as it looped out to Dry Tortuga or so and then turned around and came back. Did you ever go out to the Dry Tortuga? Is it worth it?e We've thought about it twice now. If we go back, I'm pretty sure we'll go out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Posted August 15, 2019 Share #11 Posted August 15, 2019 Time to stock up on ice cream sandwiches and thank you notes! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Razors Edge ★ Posted August 15, 2019 Share #12 Posted August 15, 2019 1 hour ago, BuffJim said: My beach vacation is last week of September. Probably really depends upon where the beach is located. I can't imagine the beaches of California are worried about hurricanes in September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maddmaxx ★ Posted August 15, 2019 Share #13 Posted August 15, 2019 27 minutes ago, Dottie said: Did you ever go out to the Dry Tortuga? Is it worth it?e We've thought about it twice now. If we go back, I'm pretty sure we'll go out there. Never went. I spent my off time in the main keys or in Miami Beach. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donkpow Posted August 15, 2019 Share #14 Posted August 15, 2019 4 hours ago, BuffJim said: “convectively-coupled kelvin wave” Oh-oh, that sounds bad, maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prophet Zacharia Posted August 15, 2019 Share #15 Posted August 15, 2019 In 19+ years of coming to the Outer Banks in late August or September, we’ve only been evacuated once. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffJim Posted August 15, 2019 Author Share #16 Posted August 15, 2019 3 hours ago, Razors Edge said: Probably really depends upon where the beach is located. I can't imagine the beaches of California are worried about hurricanes in September. Delaware Hotel is 2 blocks from the Atlantic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralphie ★ Posted August 15, 2019 Share #17 Posted August 15, 2019 32 minutes ago, Prophet Zacharia said: In 19+ years of coming to the Outer Banks in late August or September, we’ve only been evacuated once. We stopped going after one or two evacuations. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Razors Edge ★ Posted August 15, 2019 Share #18 Posted August 15, 2019 50 minutes ago, Prophet Zacharia said: In 19+ years of coming to the Outer Banks in late August or September, we’ve only been evacuated once. I've sheltered in place, but never evacuated from a hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Airehead Posted August 15, 2019 Share #19 Posted August 15, 2019 I may be i Bethany then. Maybe BuffCarla and I could have lunch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maddmaxx ★ Posted August 15, 2019 Share #20 Posted August 15, 2019 46 minutes ago, BuffJim said: Delaware Hotel is 2 blocks from the Atlantic. Faa. That's two blocks of wood breakwaters between you and treouble. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffJim Posted August 15, 2019 Author Share #21 Posted August 15, 2019 1 hour ago, Airehead said: I may be i Bethany then. Maybe BuffCarla and I could have lunch. I take a solo trip each year. That would be this trip. But I did take BuffCarla on a cruise in March, and have two long weekends away with her coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allen ★ Posted August 15, 2019 Share #22 Posted August 15, 2019 7 hours ago, jsharr said: So is riding out a hurricane from a very safe location on your bucket list? Seems like it would be sort of cool to be in a hardened concrete structure with a generator and view ports to ride out a hurricane. Would hate to see the loss to all the people that live in the path of destruction, but just seeing Nature at full force would be cool. I’ve sat out a tropical storm or 3 at St. Simons. It was cool. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donkpow Posted August 16, 2019 Share #23 Posted August 16, 2019 3 hours ago, Prophet Zacharia said: In 19+ years of coming to the Outer Banks in late August or September, we’ve only been evacuated once. Did they use propofol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smudge ★ Posted August 16, 2019 Share #24 Posted August 16, 2019 9 hours ago, BuffJim said: My beach vacation is last week of September. Oh hell. You'll be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffJim Posted August 16, 2019 Author Share #25 Posted August 16, 2019 Just now, smudge said: Oh hell. You'll be fine. Half of the enjoyment is stressing about storms that may or may not happen. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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