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Airehead

Influenza pandemic of 1918

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12 minutes ago, donkpow said:

The advantage in a flu shot that does not target the current virus is in the fact that the inoculation will prepare the body to fight viruses in general.

Correct.

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4 minutes ago, Mr. Silly said:

Just like with antibiotics, the disadvantage is over use of antiviral medications can result in resistant strains of the virus.  

Flu shots are not anti-viral medications. 

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23 minutes ago, Mr. Silly said:

Just like with antibiotics, the disadvantage is over use of antiviral medications can result in resistant strains of the virus.  

Not in this case. Antibiotics target and destroy bacteria. Flu immunization shots encourage the body to create antibodies that will fight viral infections.

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Did they have temporal scanners in use on the passenger ships returning from Europe and the war in 1918?  Maybe Ralph remembers?

 

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On 11/30/2019 at 10:41 AM, Road Runner said:

The epidemic of 1918 was a direct result of sending so many young men overseas during WWI.  They picked up flu viruses that were strange to people in the US and for which they had little or no immunity.  With so many people traveling all over the world these days, it is unlikely that a similar event would occur.

Sort of true, but a bit more nuanced.  It was the US-spawned flu in the US getting concentrated and spread at US military camps and then being spread to the US population before being spread to the US troops in Europe (via resupply from the US camps) and then continued spread in both Europe and the US via the military moving so many people around.

On 11/30/2019 at 10:50 AM, Road Runner said:

I forget the numbers, but IIRC, it seems like more people died in the 1918 epidemic than from all wars the US has ever fought.

Yeah more Americans were killed in the 1918 epidemic (~575k folks) than all Americans killed in the wars of the 20th century (especially if using "combat" deaths and deducting the flu deaths - ~50k - from the war totals).

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29 minutes ago, Kzoo said:

Did they have temporal scanners in use on the passenger ships returning from Europe and the war in 1918?  Maybe Ralph remembers?

 

To look at them before they left in 1917?

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20 minutes ago, Mr. Silly said:

It depends on how the virus evolves.

While it is true that the inoculant created to fight a specific virus will not be fully effective in fighting a different or evolved virus, the body is still better prepared to fight a virus as the result of the flu vaccine. It can help the body fight the common cold, rhinovirus.

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31 minutes ago, Razors Edge said:

Sort of true, but a bit more nuanced.  It was the US-spawned flu in the US getting concentrated and spread at US military camps and then being spread to the US population before being spread to the US troops in Europe (via resupply from the US camps) and then continued spread in both Europe and the US via the military moving so many people around.

Yeah more Americans were killed in the 1918 epidemic (~575k folks) than all Americans killed in the wars of the 20th century (especially if using "combat" deaths and deducting the flu deaths - ~50k - from the war totals).

This is the theory espoused by many. It should have been named the Kansas Flu

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/journal-plague-year-180965222/

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1 hour ago, donkpow said:

Wasn't this thread a spin off of the 'all penises are dirty' thread?

Just wash your dick-hands, ok?

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1 hour ago, donkpow said:

The advantage in a flu shot that does not target the current virus is in the fact that the inoculation will prepare the body to fight viruses in general.

I don’t think that is true, my understanding is that it only helps with a few very particular strains. 

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2 minutes ago, Randomguy said:

I don’t think that is true, my understanding is that it only helps with a few very particular strains. 

I believe I haven't made my point clear. The flu vaccine is an inoculation against a specific set of viruses that are expected to create flu in the population in any given year. Even if the inoculant is not specifically targeting a specific set of viruses, the human body will create antibodies that will fight viruses. 

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2 hours ago, Mr. Silly said:

Just like with antibiotics, the disadvantage is over use of antiviral medications can result in resistant strains of the virus.  

Unlike antibiotics and bacteria, a virus never interacts with the vaccine, so it doesn’t mutate in response to it.

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I'm sure it could repeat because of the lack of people with pneumonia vaccinations.

An NIH research article says: The postmortem samples we examined from people who died of influenza during 1918–1919 uniformly exhibited severe changes indicative of bacterial pneumonia....The majority of deaths in the 1918–1919 influenza pandemic likely resulted directly from secondary bacterial pneumonia caused by common upper respiratory–tract bacteria.

Source: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2599911/

The vast majority of the 36,000 Americans who are listed as dying of the flu each year actually die from pneumonia caught by the weakened body.  I guess the Center for Disease Control inflates the flu numbers in an attempt to scare more people into getting flu shots - as they should - but it has reached the point where if you catch the flu, step into a street, get hit by a bus and killed, you'll be listed as having died from the flu.

That's why I'm amazed there isn't as big a push to get the bacterial pneumonia shot as the flu shot! Depending on the type of vaccine, you need only one pneumonia shot in your life or two spaced 5 years apart that work for life.  The shot protects you from nearly 100% of the types of bacteria that cause pneumonia.

I get the flu shot(s) every year and that provides a little peace of mind, but not as much as the fact I got my pneumonia shots.

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On 11/30/2019 at 10:37 AM, Randomguy said:

Theoretically, it is a virtual certainty that a pandemic will run through large swathes of the population at some point, at least according to science.

Wash your hands, people.

I'm starting to think someone somewhere wasn't following RG's sage advice!

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On 11/30/2019 at 7:39 AM, RalphWaldoMooseworth said:

I always want to throttle people I see walking oot of the restroom withoot washing their hands. 

Two points I want to make....

a) I don't piss on my hands

2) My dick is clean.  I wash it with soap.

iii) A lot.

 

Yes me too truthfully.  I am one of the guys that I hang onto the paper towel to pull open the bathroom door there are so many "just held a dick now touching this door" hands pulling it open.  

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Just now, Zephyr said:

Yes me too truthfully.  I am one of the guys that I hang onto the paper towel to pull open the bathroom door there are so many "just held a dick now touching this door" hands pulling it open.  

People who don't do that are DISGUSTING! Period.

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1 hour ago, Zephyr said:

Two points I want to make....

a) I don't piss on my hands

2) My dick is clean.  I wash it with soap.

iii) A lot.

 

Yes me too truthfully.  I am one of the guys that I hang onto the paper towel to pull open the bathroom door there are so many "just held a dick now touching this door" hands pulling it open.  

...however you numbered those, there are three points there.

 

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On 11/30/2019 at 9:39 AM, RalphWaldoMooseworth said:

I always want to throttle people I see walking oot of the restroom withoot washing their hands.  Like Poppy the restaurant chef/owner on Seinfeld. :D

 

I always thought it was Papi.  Turns oot we were both wronge.  It is Poppie.

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On 1/28/2020 at 7:19 AM, donkpow said:

While it is true that the inoculant created to fight a specific virus will not be fully effective in fighting a different or evolved virus, the body is still better prepared to fight a virus as the result of the flu vaccine. It can help the body fight the common cold, rhinovirus.

...this is based on the idea that the human immune system needs constant exercise to develop fully and remain effective in protecting us. Which does appear to be true. But honestly speaking dick hands does the same thing at a much cheaper cost and you don't need to make an appointment or stand in line to get immunity challenged by other peoples' dick hands.

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2 minutes ago, Page Turner said:

...this is based on the idea that the human immune system needs constant exercise to develop fully and remain effective in protecting us. Which does appear to be true. But honestly speaking dick hands does the same thing at a much cheaper cost and you don't need to make an appointment or stand in line to get immunity challenged by other peoples' dick hands.

In which case, you would likely advocate for treatment rather than inoculation. Most of the time, that works.

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2 hours ago, Page Turner said:

...however you numbered those, there are three points there.

 

That is part of the joke..., plus the points were labeled a), 2) and iii)

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On 1/28/2020 at 6:22 AM, Mr. Silly said:

Just like with antibiotics, the disadvantage is over use of antiviral medications can result in resistant strains of the virus.  

They can but a virus can be eradicated too.  But I suspect you're right also.  It's a game science will enjoy playing with nature until the end of times. There's always some new strain.  It's nature's way of keeping things in check.

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9 minutes ago, Zephyr said:

That is part of the joke..., plus the points were labeled a), 2) and iii)

...everybody needs a straight man. :)  

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14 hours ago, Zephyr said:

That is part of the joke..., plus the points were labeled a), 2) and iii)

Click and Clack were famous for that.

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On 11/30/2019 at 6:34 PM, 2Far said:

I had a great grandfather by marriage who died in the 1918 outbreak. 

I just learned that my great grandmother died of it in 1918.  My mom never met her.

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Do you think folks continued to compare the Spanish flu to the "regular" flu as it spread? 

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On 11/30/2019 at 6:31 PM, Further said:

AIDS came pretty damn close

Not  Even  Close

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4 minutes ago, Kzoo said:

Not  Even  Close

Yeah.  That flu spread to a LOT of folks!

The Spanish flu (also known as the 1918 flu pandemic[2]) was an unusually deadly influenza pandemic. Lasting from January 1918 to December 1920, it infected 500 million people – about a quarter of the world's population at the time.[1] The death toll is estimated to have been anywhere from 17 million[3] to 50 million, and possibly as high as 100 million, making it one of the deadliest pandemics in human history.[4][5]

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Wow.  I just re read this entire thread.  What a difference 4 months can make.  4 months ago this was an intellectual exercise that most considered couldn't happen.

Today.........you can't go to the store without worrying about picking something up that could kill you.

 

I guess that explains the known unknowns and the unknown knowns.

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On 3/3/2020 at 11:04 AM, Zephyr said:

Two points I want to make....
a) I piss on my hands
b)  A lot.

Hmm...

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On 11/30/2019 at 11:33 AM, Randomguy said:

The report found that, in addition to being airborne, a pathogen with the potential to cause a global pandemic disaster would likely have the following traits:

  • It would be contagious during the "incubation period," before people show any symptoms, or when people have only mild symptoms.
  • It would be a microbe that most people are not immune to, so there would be a large population of susceptible human hosts.
  • It wouldn't have an existing treatment or prevention method.
  • It would have a "low but significant" fatality rate.

 

Although the final trait may sound surprising, Adalja noted that a pathogen doesn't have to have a high fatality rate, or kill the majority of people infected, to cause majority societal disruptions. "It just has to make a lot of people sick," he told Live Science. (A pathogen with a high fatality rate could kill too many people too quickly, and therefore run out of "hosts" to spread further, the report noted.)

Indeed, the infamous "Spanish" influenza pandemic of 1918 had a fatality rate of just 2.5 percent, but because it infected hundreds of millions of people, it caused an estimated 50 million deaths, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. In addition, according to something called the "host density threshold theorem" a virus that kills too many people will "run out of susceptible hosts and be extinguished," the report said.

The report also found that a group of viruses known as RNA viruses have the most potential to cause a global pandemic disaster, in part because these viruses mutate more easily than other types do. This group includes well-known viruses such as the flu (influenza) and SARS, but also common cold viruses, such as enteroviruses and rhinoviruses, as well as respiratory syncytial virus.

While the flu has received a lot of attention for its ability to cause pandemics, many other viruses in this group have not. There's "a whole host of viral families that get very little attention when it comes to pandemic preparedness," Adalja said.

Historically, authorities have prepared for pandemics by focusing on a list of "usual suspects" — diseases that have caused outbreaks in the past, such as the flu and SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome), or those that could be used as biological weapons. But this approach doesn't account for pathogens that aren't currently known or haven't historically caused outbreaks, the researchers said.

HOLD ON!  How the heck did YOU and ONLY YOU know this sort of thing could happen??? Especially back in November?

WHY DIDN'T YOU SOUND THE ALARM!!!!! Nobody saw this coming. Nobody thought it could be this bad.

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2 hours ago, Razors Edge said:

HOLD ON!  How the heck did YOU and ONLY YOU know this sort of thing could happen??? Especially back in November?

"I am a very stable genius, and scientist are in awed by how much I know".

Truthfully, I wrote a couple of papers in college about the bubonic plague, and that got me interested in some pandemic knowledge.  Particularly that of one particular bottleneck in human history where we went down from some millions in population to less than, supposedly, 10,000 individuals at most (this may not have been from pandemic, jury is out).  I have a very generalized interest in odd things, too, and I like to extrapolate stuff.

I guessed right for once.

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An unusual, virulent flu could happen again because it wouldn't be among the 4 strains (3 in high-dose senior) the vaccines protect against.

Of course the VAST majority of flu deaths, and maybe also COVID-19 deaths, result from bodies weakened by the virus catching bacterial pneumonia and dying from the pneumonia.

It's been estimated from detailed 1918-19 postmortem records that over 50% of the deaths from the Spanish Flu would not have occurred if everyone had the currently available pneumonia vaccine.

You only need one or, at most, two shots 5 years apart to protect you from virtually 100% of the bacteria that cause pneumonia.

But, 40% of Americans don't get the flu shot each year due to belief, ignorance, misinformation, or cost and probably most don't get the pneumonia shot so, yeah, a Spanish Flu can hit here - probably more likely in America than in nations with universal healthcare where a higher percentage are immunized.

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35 minutes ago, MickinMD said:

40% of Americans don't get the flu shot each year due to belief, ignorance, misinformation, or cost

Or the fact that it is mostly ineffective and gives some individuals severe flu-like symptoms for a week or so.  If it worked and didn't come with severe side effects I would get it, but it is only the ignorant that believe the shot is even 50% effective in most years.

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59 minutes ago, MickinMD said:

40% of Americans don't get the flu shot each year due to belief, ignorance, misinformation, or cos

That statement seems..... well....... rather arrogant.

You have no idea why people like me have never gotten a flu shot.  And based on your 40% number you don’t understand how general population immunization  rates effect pandemics.

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On 11/30/2019 at 9:36 AM, Airehead said:

Could it happen again?  

Ahh, Airehead, you are the oracle of Rochester. I was giving RG credit for foreseeing this all when he added that in a post in this thread.

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23 hours ago, RalphWaldoMooseworth said:

Holy crap!  This thread was eye opening!

Yeah, who new RG WASN'T full of shit?!?!? :scratchhead:

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10 hours ago, Randomguy said:

Or the fact that it is mostly ineffective and gives some individuals severe flu-like symptoms for a week or so.  If it worked and didn't come with severe side effects I would get it, but it is only the ignorant that believe the shot is even 50% effective in most years.

Wouldn't you rather have a 50% chance than a potentially fatal disease?

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On 11/30/2019 at 6:36 AM, Airehead said:

Could it happen again?  

Yes

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On 4/3/2020 at 5:40 PM, Randomguy said:

I guessed right for once.

Yes you did. 

So, can you guess how this will end?

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