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GM + F < TSLA


Razors Edge

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Somewhat surprising, but I guess it makes sense in the long term.  I am interested to see how Tesla responds as the new Porsche Taycan comes on-line and challenges as a mainstream performance electric car, but at $100k+, it might actually give Tesla a higher ceiling for a premier car in the same vein as the Taycan.

As an aside, my neighbor recently test drove a Taycan and he (a petrol head) said he would seriously consider it :frantics:  I was shocked and had expected him to talk smack about it.

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1 minute ago, maddmaxx said:

That value is in stock price, not the actual value or size of the company.  In a 2020 stock market that is almost meaningless in terms of the companies actual abilities.

Here's a link to a suitable source.

https://nypost.com/2020/01/09/tesla-becomes-more-valuable-than-gm-and-ford-combined/

Exactly. We need to ignore the stock market and their shenanigans and focus on companies that are gonna be here 10, 20, or 50 years from now.

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Electric isn't selling as well as people want to believe they are.  The volumes that Tesla moves are the volumes that top auto companies would kill a model over.  The issue is still charge times and why would not work for me.  I can easily exceed their range on the weekend and no I don't have time to sit around wait for one to charge.

 

I know numerous reviews have commented how much better the fit and finish on the Porsche is compared to the Tesla.  And considering Tesla has only ever turned a profit one single quarter in its existence.  I think they are in real trouble as the major automakers start to enter their field.  They could get by being different and poor fit and finish they were a novelty company, but now that real competition is coming online, they have to step up their game big time and I am not sure they are capable with someone as unstable as Musk in charge.  And for everyone that thinks he's genius, I talk to a lot of engineers, I've yet to meet one who think he's anything but a crackpot who was good at hiring talent early and writing checks.  But his personality has rubbed so many people wrong over the years, the company has bled a lot of talent and top talent  in that field no longer want to go work for him.

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4 minutes ago, Razors Edge said:

Exactly. We need to ignore the stock market and their shenanigans and focus on companies that are gonna be here 10, 20, or 50 years from now.

I think people are betting on a big pay day resulting in Tesla being bought out by one of the bigger players.  Of course I think that day has past already as Tesla's tech is showing to be less revolutionary now as others are entering the field and closing the gap quickly.

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I also predict a huge lawsuit hurting Tesla over "Autopilot" coming soon.

Sorry, but the system is poorly done, default due to lack of response from driver shouldn't be to just keep going, it should be to stop.  And then it's amazing the lack of sensors and radar the system actually uses, it's really kind of a smoke and mirrors system.

 

Yeah, I'm not a huge fan of them.

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9 minutes ago, Indy said:

Yeah, I'm not a huge fan of them.

Fan or not, that doesn't alter reality.  We're all old enough to remember when the Prius was the butt of countless jokes.  No way that tech was catching on...until it did.  Tesla has been making cars for over a decade, and seem to be in the sweet spot for the market.  They definitely should have been gobbled up by a bigger manufacturer when their shares were reasonably priced, but now their more likely a merger candidate or even a purchaser of 20th and 19th century car manufacturers.

Batteries will improve. Charging will improve. EVs will improve.  Infrastructure will improve. And the USA will likely either ride the EV wave or be an island amidst the movement. I don't see the US being an island in the populated parts of the country, since with many households owning multiple cars, it starts to make immediate sense to own an EV for the 95%+ driving folks do that doesn't come anywhere near the mileage limits on current EVs let alone the future ones.

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6 minutes ago, Razors Edge said:

Fan or not, that doesn't alter reality.  We're all old enough to remember when the Prius was the butt of countless jokes.  No way that tech was catching on...until it did.  Tesla has been making cars for over a decade, and seem to be in the sweet spot for the market.  They definitely should have been gobbled up by a bigger manufacturer when their shares were reasonably priced, but now their more likely a merger candidate or even a purchaser of 20th and 19th century car manufacturers.

Batteries will improve. Charging will improve. EVs will improve.  Infrastructure will improve. And the USA will likely either ride the EV wave or be an island amidst the movement. I don't see the US being an island in the populated parts of the country, since with many households owning multiple cars, it starts to make immediate sense to own an EV for the 95%+ driving folks do that doesn't come anywhere near the mileage limits on current EVs let alone the future ones.

See, I'm still in the boat EV's are just a blip on the road to the real solution.  I think batteries and charging are a huge issue and will continue to be so.  Once we get into the window (which we are close) where battery packs have to start being changed out we are going to run into issues.  We have supply problems with them just supporting the current, relatively small market we have, once you add in replacements too, it will be even worse.  Then you look at China who's actually been probably the leader in electrification and really pushing it from the top of the government and they are having issues as the mass market just isn't interested.

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6 minutes ago, Razors Edge said:

Jet packs? Flying cars?  Woot!

I prefer teleportation.

I still think something along hydrogen fuel cell or something.  Toyota and Honda has been on that boat for awhile, it's why they haven't been big in the EV innovation after being leaders in the hybrid development.

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1 minute ago, Indy said:

And Toyota and Honda both have a fuel cell car on the market.  Where I work, we are working on fuel cell technology.

Fuel cells are definitely a path to making EVs readily available, but that's more in the "battery tech" vs "fuel cell tech" vs "any other electrical creation/storage tech" debate.  I can imagine a time or situation where Tesla - a leader in the EV field - chooses to adapt some of their designs to a fuel cell. That's the beauty of EVs in that they just need electricity and manufacturers can 1) choose their preferred method and 2) designs can be readily adapted as the market sorts out the energy production methods.

Fuel cells infrastructure, like the BEV infrastructure, need MASSIVE improvement and build out.  I think as that sort of plays out - will hydrogen be sold at normal gas stations(???) or will Tesla roll out battery hot swaps or even faster charging that they already have(???) - as well as other jumps forward in tech, then the car makers will evolve as well, and we'll see if the big ones like GM, Ford, VW, Mercedes, Toyota, etc are able to pivot appropriately or if the start-ups like Tesla or the now countless ones in places like China are nimbler.  I have to bet that most but not all of the big guys will survive as "big" ones.

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6 minutes ago, Razors Edge said:

Fuel cells are definitely a path to making EVs readily available, but that's more in the "battery tech" vs "fuel cell tech" vs "any other electrical creation/storage tech" debate.  I can imagine a time or situation where Tesla - a leader in the EV field - chooses to adapt some of their designs to a fuel cell. That's the beauty of EVs in that they just need electricity and manufacturers can 1) choose their preferred method and 2) designs can be readily adapted as the market sorts out the energy production methods.

Fuel cells infrastructure, like the BEV infrastructure, need MASSIVE improvement and build out.  I think as that sort of plays out - will hydrogen be sold at normal gas stations(???) or will Tesla roll out battery hot swaps or even faster charging that they already have(???) - as well as other jumps forward in tech, then the car makers will evolve as well, and we'll see if the big ones like GM, Ford, VW, Mercedes, Toyota, etc are able to pivot appropriately or if the start-ups like Tesla or the now countless ones in places like China are nimbler.  I have to bet that most but not all of the big guys will survive as "big" ones.

Tesla has way to much invested in just battery manufacturing.  They are the only ones that make their own batteries.  No, they are pretty much tied to battery EV for the long haul and why other car companies are perfectly fine buying their battery packs from someone else.

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Just now, maddmaxx said:

The Nissan Leaf seems to be an adequate all electric vehicle and the price differential would allow more leaves per family.

The leaf has range issues, they've made it better but I guess a big part of their problem, they don't have temperature control in their battery pack (heating and cooling capabilities) that others do.  They don't in order to hit price point, but it makes range impact due to weather much larger than others suffer from.

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There are a couple types of EV's available.  There are some that are all electric whereas others have both a gas engine and electric motor.

I have a 20 mile commute to work and we have plenty of charging stations.  I could easily make it to work on a charge, plug in and have plenty of charge to make it home and back to work again on that charge.  An all electric vehicle would make sense for me.  Mrs.  Silly has a shorter commute and charging station where she works.  It would make sense for her as well.  It would not make sense for both of us to have an electric vehicle though because a couple times a year, we take a road trip where we can't depend on an available charging station and might be beyond the vehicle's range.

The gas/electric vehicle addresses issues with range.  I believe the electric motor is used for acceleration and the gas engine is used to maintain speed.  With that combination. even large SUV's can get 40 mpg or about 800 miles from a tank of gas.  If  during that trip, all the battery's power is used up then you still have your gas engine so you're still not marooned in the middle of a corn field looking for a very long extension cord.  These should address some of Indy's concerns about charge times.  They simply aren't an issue.

The biggest problem with electric is the battery life.  Currently the way to avoid the issue is to lease the vehicle.  Leasing avoids the problem for the consumer but there is still the financial and ecological issue of a old battery.  This needs to be addressed.  I do have a lot of confidence that problem will be solved.

There is little doubt in my mind that EVs are here to stay.  Auto makers find them attractive because the whole powertrain is much easier to maintain.  A motor is much simpler than an engine, there is no transmission and the electrical system is simpler than the fuel system.  Since an EV is a simpler design, auto companies see it as being more profitable.  Therefore I don't think EV's are going away.

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22 minutes ago, Indy said:

The leaf has range issues, they've made it better but I guess a big part of their problem, they don't have temperature control in their battery pack (heating and cooling capabilities) that others do.  They don't in order to hit price point, but it makes range impact due to weather much larger than others suffer from.

I wonder how many car owners actually use that range?  I know page owns one and he seems not to get stranded too often.

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5 minutes ago, maddmaxx said:

I wonder how many car owners actually use that range?  I know page owns one and he seems not to get stranded too often.

Helps to not live in a cold climate, cold is what can have the biggest impact on range, and a suburban environment.  I think for city cars, they would be a good option if you have places to charge them readily available.  But for the rural crowd, they have issues.

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1 hour ago, Indy said:

I think people are betting on a big pay day resulting in Tesla being bought out by one of the bigger players.  Of course I think that day has past already as Tesla's tech is showing to be less revolutionary now as others are entering the field and closing the gap quickly.

With a market of over $100B based on $4.75/share loss, I think the "big pay out" from a buy out is already priced in the share price.

Teslas has a growth issue.  Auto factories have a huge fixed asset anchor around their necks.  Musk was resently crowing about a new plant opening.  Of course it will increase his production but keeping it running will also increase costs.  I doubt that new factory will catapult Tesla into profitability.

The other auto companies have the infrastructure Musk needs to build his cars.  With a market cap in the $100 billion range, his company may be priced out of a range where someone else might want to buy them.  Any auto company could develop their own electric vehicle for less than $100 Billion.

Musk's bet is to get in a joint venture with a company that is lagging in the EV market.  I think I read FCA/Puegot are behind the curve in with EV's.  He may be able to hook up with them.

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23 minutes ago, Mr. Silly said:

Teslas has a growth issue.

This.

Up until the Model 3, the cars were very high quality.  Now that they convinced people EVs are mainstream, they can't figure out how to mass produce.  I looked at model 3's, too many problems for the price.

But we wouldn't have a Taycan or EV Hummers or all EV Volvos if not for Tesla building great cars that happened to be electric.  Musk may be a nut but he understood that people needed to see that EVs were just a car, not a hippie movement.  

No doubt, electric motors are a MUCH better way to power a car than IC.  And also no doubt, technology will change.  Batteries and infrastructure will drastically improve.  Gasoline is the horse of the future.

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20 minutes ago, Mr. Silly said:

Musk's bet is to get in a joint venture with a company that is lagging in the EV market.  I think I read FCA/Puegot are behind the curve in with EV's.  He may be able to hook up with them.

They've been rumored be going into a joint venture with several automotive companies, the problem is the established companies quickly discover how big of pain it is to deal with Musk and end up either finding another partner or doing it themselves.  Tesla can't even get along with their long time partner Panasonic anymore.  Panasonic worked with them on the battery packs (Panasonic is the world leader in lithium battery packs, they developed it) which puts them at a huge risk of being able to support production.  And Tesla battery packs are not like anyone else's, Tesla builds theirs (for simplicity of explanation) using like a round D battery soldered together to form a battery pack much like your power tools.  Most others use individually connected flat cells which looks like a bunch of envelopes wired together.  The advantage of Tesla/Panasonic's design is in power density, they disadvantage is in serviceability as it's not nearly as simple to remove a single bad cell.  That is why Porsche with the Tacan doesn't have the range, Porsche being an automotive company greatly values serviceability, not that Porsches or any German vehicle is really known to be easy to work on.

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1 minute ago, 12string said:

This.

Up until the Model 3, the cars were very high quality.  Now that they convinced people EVs are mainstream, they can't figure out how to mass produce.  I looked at model 3's, too many problems for the price.

But we wouldn't have a Taycan or EV Hummers or all EV Volvos if not for Tesla building great cars that happened to be electric.  Musk may be a nut but he understood that people needed to see that EVs were just a car, not a hippie movement.  

No doubt, electric motors are a MUCH better way to power a car than IC.  And also no doubt, technology will change.  Batteries and infrastructure will drastically improve.  Gasoline is the horse of the future.

No, they were expensive, but the quality, not so much.  They were always known for panel gaps and general bad fit and finish.  Something no one would tolerate from a car that expensive from a traditional luxury brand.

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2 hours ago, Razors Edge said:

Somewhat surprising, but I guess it makes sense in the long term.  I am interested to see how Tesla responds as the new Porsche Taycan comes on-line and challenges as a mainstream performance electric car, but at $100k+, it might actually give Tesla a higher ceiling for a premier car in the same vein as the Taycan.

As an aside, my neighbor recently test drove a Taycan and he (a petrol head) said he would seriously consider it :frantics:  I was shocked and had expected him to talk smack about it.

It doesn't necessarily make sense for the long term, but no one can say for sure it doesn't.

If I was younger or needed to build my nest egg, I might take a chance with TSLA stock. I very much admire Elon Musk's vision and drive.  But, pushing 70 and with enough of a nest egg to keep me stress-free over finances, I won't put my money there or in Beyond Meat or other startups where I fear the big companies will eat them up when it becomes worthwhile for them to do so.

My best guess is that once we have a nationwide system of fast-charge, repair, and maintenance centers in the USA, the big companies like Ford, GM, Toyota, Honda, etc. will drive Tesla into a little luxury niche corner.  Tesla doesn't have any durable competitive advantages. Its motors are mostly based on 100 year old technology. It's batteries are the same Lithium Ion batteries that Toyota, etc. have used for decades.  OTHER companies unaffiliated with Tesla are inventing new types of batteries: Lithium-Sulfur, etc.  Toyota uses the same lights, brakes, polymers, metals, etc. the other car companies use.  It's software can be easily duplicated as Google, Apple, etc. have demonstrated.

Tesla doesn't sell 10% as much dollars worth of vehicles as Ford plus GM and it doesn't make anywhere close to the same profit per vehicle. The big car companies have much greater engineering teams, much greater financing, and a much greater nationwide network than Tesla.

Tesla may succeed in the long run but it has a bunch of hurdles to overcome and it will probably be accomplished, if it does succeed, a decade or more in the future by Musk's successor.  Will he have Musk's insight, drive, charisma, and money gathering ability?

 

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I would like to see hydrogen fuel cells succeed. However infrastructure is a bigger challenge than electric. Most locations already have electricity. It’s just a matter of getting the charge time down. I was reading about a new generation of capacitors that could be competition to the contemporary battery. Apparently they have made improvements to their stability, they are not the ecological nightmare that batteries are and can be charged much faster than batteries. 
I live in the heart of the nation. Drive 50 miles west of here and things get very rural and sparse quickly. Yet I in the last year, I have seen a lot of Teslas on the roads with local plates and somewhat surprising, from some VERY rural counties where the Buick Enclave rules the road. If EVs are being adopted there, they are becoming mainstream! I have seen Tesla cars on I80 from long distances away. I’m sure it takes some planning, but they are blazing the trail to more widespread adoption. 
We chose to buy conventional IC this time, but I will be curious to see the state of the EV when it is time for the next vehicle. 

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The petroleum companies aren't taking electric vehicles lying down. Look at the cheap fuel prices making it possible for everyone to drive larger SUVs and trucks. How quickly people forgot the $5/$6 per gallon prices a decade ago. For commuting, both my wife and I could get by with today's electric vehicle tech. I'm looking into finding a first generation MX5 and converting it to electric. :nodhead:

 

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