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Here comes the boom.


donkpow
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Here's a pretty good article about the Putin / Abdulaziz bin Salman fallout.  

I don't think it will help alternative energy.  Lower gas prices would help everyone here besides those living in Texas or Alberta.  People will be more willing to buy bigger, less fuel efficient vehicles which tend to carry a higher profit margin.  This should help those who live in South East Michigan.

Japan announced their economy contracted 7% in the 4th quarter.  That isn't going ease anyone's economic concerns.  

We'll see how traders react on Wall Street in about 5 minutes.

Hold on to your butts everyone.

 

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21 minutes ago, BuffJim said:

I may be stating the obvious. Alternative energy becomes an attractive option when oil/gas prices are high. They are cratering, which would make them less attractive, barring government mandates to use.

Eventually they will become an attractive option because they have to.

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Trading curb

At the start of each day, the NYSE sets three circuit breaker levels at levels of 7% (Level 1), 13% (Level 2) and 20% (Level 3). These thresholds are the percentage drops in value that the S&P 500 Index would have to suffer in order for a trading halt to occur. Base price levels for which these thresholds will be applied are calculated daily based on the preceding trading day’s closing value of the S&P 500. Depending on the point drop that happens and the time of day when it happens, different actions occur automatically: Level 1 and Level 2 declines result in a 15-minute trading halt unless they occur after 3:25pm, when no trading halts apply. A Level 3 decline results in trading being suspended for the remainder of the day.

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The ramifications could massive. Consider all the debt involved. I've got a corporate debt fund that I hope isn't too heavily weighted in this industry. There will be smaller operators not crutched by governments who simply go under. We already have excess supply of oil in place. Infrastructure components will shut down. LNG production will continue to hold as there is excess product in that part of the industry. Cheap oil makes a lot of the alternate energy and related companies work harder to stay economically viable.

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1 hour ago, Mr. Silly said:

Lower gas prices would help everyone here besides those living in Texas or Alberta. 

Man. looking at the shale gas map, I would think lower oil (& energy in general) costs start to have an impact on the other players in the market - from alternative, to coal, to natural gas.  Likely too, though is the "positive" side of it where businesses reduce off shore drilling in sensitive areas like the Alaska off shore exploration and drilling that was already in flux due to climate change and other financial decisions.

83015121_United_States_Shale_gas_plays_May_2011_pdf.thumb.jpg.c69987f2de5da80e271300cf02dcc38f.jpg

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8 minutes ago, Bikeguy said:

This is what scares me.   The virus will eventually pass.  But if something like this happens things could be bad for many years.  

image.thumb.png.51ae6608f358ef730058e84d2b7b3f32.png

Historically, the P/E of the S&P 500 doesn't stay over 20 for every long.  

Capture.GIF.8047854ab4927ca6f31e5bf55ee2f8dd.GIF

Since 1990, the P/E ratio floor seems to be 15.  

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3 hours ago, donkpow said:

Saudis v. Russians over crude oil prices. This may have consequences in the alternative energy and related businesses. PB & J for the jsharr family.

No, this will be good for our business actually.  We are seeing increases daily.  

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Nasdaq stocks have stronger up and down swings than the general market.  Just before the coronavirus hit big, consumer sentiment, employment, earnings increases, etc. were going up strongly enough that the economy should be able to take the coronavirus hit without severely crashing.  Of course, we don't know if the coronavirus will virtually disappear in warmer months as previous coronaviruses have.

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28 minutes ago, maddmaxx said:

Was that a boom I heard in the stock market this morning.  Something about having to shut down trading for 15 minutes when the free fall brakes went on?

The brakes for the futures market went into effect over night then about 5 minutes into regular trading, the trading brakes took effect.

It is down about 5% today but that is up 2% from the open.

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29 minutes ago, maddmaxx said:

Was that a boom I heard in the stock market this morning.  Something about having to shut down trading for 15 minutes when the free fall brakes went on?

Yes, that's the "circuit breakers". I imagine program trading at the bell triggered it. I don't doubt the trading algorithms are keyed in no small way to oil prices.

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  • 2 weeks later...

So far....  I'm still very concerned this won't end anytime soon.   Shutting down many business (some who will never reopen), job losses, the thousands more who will die, etc...  

Yeah I know... I'm a retired engineer, not a guy who follows the markets.  But here we are 2 weeks later from my first post in this tread, and the only other economic downturn worse that this was the Great Depression.  It doesn't look like this will end until the virus is nearly gone, which now looks like that will take at least 2 more months.

 

image.thumb.png.51ae6608f358ef730058e84d2b7b3f32.png

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8 minutes ago, Bikeguy said:

So far....  I'm still very concerned this won't end anytime soon.   Shutting down many business (some who will never reopen), job losses, the thousands more who will die, etc...  

Yeah I know... I'm a retired engineer, not a guy who follows the markets.  But here we are 2 weeks later from my first post in this tread, and the only other economic downturn worse that this was the Great Depression.  It doesn't look like this will end until the virus is nearly gone, which now looks like that will take at least 2 more months.

 

image.thumb.png.51ae6608f358ef730058e84d2b7b3f32.png

While I am sympathetic to your sentiment, I try to keep in mind the conditions prior to to 2020. An 11 year bull run and way overpriced equities. There were a lot of shenanigans prior to the crash. A lot of things that didn't have basis. Hey, I lost 40% of my principal. I pulled some of my cash in to cover that number and I will be making more available as buying opportunities are discovered. "The Fed" has massive balls. Congress is lucky to squirt a turd. Have faith, bro. The leadership of this country is not in Washington. It is around your kitchen table.

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On 3/9/2020 at 9:53 AM, Mr. Silly said:

Trading curb

At the start of each day, the NYSE sets three circuit breaker levels at levels of 7% (Level 1), 13% (Level 2) and 20% (Level 3). These thresholds are the percentage drops in value that the S&P 500 Index would have to suffer in order for a trading halt to occur. Base price levels for which these thresholds will be applied are calculated daily based on the preceding trading day’s closing value of the S&P 500. Depending on the point drop that happens and the time of day when it happens, different actions occur automatically: Level 1 and Level 2 declines result in a 15-minute trading halt unless they occur after 3:25pm, when no trading halts apply. A Level 3 decline results in trading being suspended for the remainder of the day.

The S&P 500 and Dow are down 1.6% today, NASDAQ Comp. is down 0.09%.

I think things are leveling off for a while as a 25% drop in GDP is already figured-in, according to some talking-heads.

I'm sticking with my scheduled automatic investments, but they're very small, averaging $200/month and buy fractional shares (to 1/1000 or less of a share) with no fees, and I like my chances with the automatic, dollar-cost-averaging strategy:

Mar. 25, $25 in Abbott Labs (ABT) - producing quick-tests for COVID-19 for ABT-made equipment already in hospitals that can do up to 240 tests/day, makes world's #1, even in China, baby formula Similac (sales will continue!), big on nutritionals and hospital equipment, and king of other test equipment. Raised dividend (currently 2.2%) for 46 straight years but that may end.

Apr. 8, $50 in Emerson Electric (EMR) - top big-scale electronic controls maker from oil rigs to elevators: getting hammered and cheap now but financially in great shape: raised dividend (currently 4.8%) for 62 straight years but that may end. Took major cost-cutting steps in past year due to an activist investor that may be a great benefit now.

Apr. 9, $50 in General Mills (GIS) - this food stock is fairly stable in price and beat earnings/revenues forecasts on 3/18 quarterly report: Blue Buffalo pet food sales up 10%. Hasn't lowered dividend (currently 3.9%) since the 1800's (EIGHTEEN hundreds!) and that 3.9% is virtually guaranteed now though it surely won't increase this year!

Apr. 15, $25 in Abbvie (ABBV) - working on a COVID-19 vaccine. One of the largest research drug pipelines in the world but loses patent on world's #1 selling drug Humira in 2023. Acquired Allergan (Botox, etc. maker) last year and had a net, huge $19 billion in cash/year flowing into it's treasury until this crisis. Raised dividend (currently 7.2%) for 46 straight years (it was spun-off from ABT in 2013) but that may end.

15th of each odd month: $100 in T. Rowe Price Communications & Technology Fund (PRMTX) - beats the S&P 500 for 1, 5, 10 years and since inception in 1993. I use this fund for exposure to high tech sectors where it's hard to stay on top of individual stocks and which owns Amazon, Facebook, Baidu, Google, etc.

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I'm watching some stocks this morning. I have bids in below Friday's closing price. The orders haven't closed yet. New 52 week lows were down to 300 some last week, if my memory serves.

Honestly, I'm almost all stocks in small to mid cap range. Arguably the most volatile components of all exchanges.

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On 3/9/2020 at 8:57 AM, jsharr said:

No, this will be good for our business actually.  We are seeing increases daily.  

So what business do you work in?

Anyway, general comment to this thread:

Alternative energy that I haven, has fallen. But not yet on its face. I don't feel buying anymore, since I feel overexposed already and I'm getting older, not younger to see any stampede upward ...which will take time later..if we're still alive. 

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Just now, shootingstar said:

So what business do you work in?

Anyway, general comment to this thread:

Alternative energy that I haven, has fallen. But not yet on its face. I don't feel buying anymore, since I feel overexposed already and I'm getting older, not younger to see any stampede upward ...which will take time later..if we're still alive. 

Software as a service.  We have an algo based analytics platform that alerts on a wide variety of market conditions.  Volatitily is good for us and our traders.  Also have dark pool scanners and options flow scanners.  Our subscribers are day traders.  We are seeing daily growth in our subscriber base.  The shelter in place may allow many of our traders to trade more or invest more of their time in trading and it may bring others who previously did not have time to us.

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23 minutes ago, jsharr said:

Software as a service.  We have an algo based analytics platform that alerts on a wide variety of market conditions.  Volatitily is good for us and our traders.  Also have dark pool scanners and options flow scanners.  Our subscribers are day traders.  We are seeing daily growth in our subscriber base.  The shelter in place may allow many of our traders to trade more or invest more of their time in trading and it may bring others who previously did not have time to us.

There is an Amazon/Apple/Google like  in stock value:  a Canadian software e-commerce platform that's floating fine right now. Yes, it fell from its meteoric rise in prior 18 months.  It's global firm now and trying to expand, going multilingual in its platform.  That is critical for any software platform that is put into the hands of the client business owner to shape the platform for their customer base.  The CEO is German-Canadian...so not surprisingly he set up lst European office..in Berlin.

It's the software dearie subscribes for any business to set up its own Internet online e-commerce ordering platform. Can hook it up to your bank for online or instore customers for debit/credit transactions.  At the end back, metrics dashboard for just in time sales.. dump out into Excel(which is the norm for any software worth its basic salt) and into QuickBooks..which then goes into TurboTax.  The firm has all sorts of web business templates for design which look slick, etc. and to upload your biz products online with pricing, etc.

Anyone who has blogged using Wordpress.com...would be able to adjust well to set-up..

I have fun daily...trying to guess daily end $$$ total sales...without knowing /seeing the actual dashboard. 

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On ‎3‎/‎9‎/‎2020 at 6:31 AM, maddmaxx said:

Eventually they will become an attractive option because they have to.

I bought an eco gas car before.  I've bought a hybrid now.  I suspect my next car will be plugin.  Or I will be dead.

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