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Are we in recession?


Allen
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A recession defined as 2 consecutive quarters of economic decline measured by the GDP.  With the latest jobs numbers (latest before Coronavirus reached our shores) it’s highly unlikely.  We may be heading into a quarter of no growth in the economy but that quarter by itself would not define a recession.

 

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10 minutes ago, Kzoo said:

A recession defined as 2 consecutive quarters of economic decline measured by the GDP.  With the latest jobs numbers (latest before Coronavirus reached our shores) it’s highly unlikely.  We may be heading into a quarter of no growth in the economy but that quarter by itself would not define a recession.

 

Thank you

 

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14 minutes ago, shootingstar said:

Market driven based on a huge hunk of emotion, oil wars and some supply chain problems. The speed of it happening has been ramped up by technology use.    

October 1987?

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5 minutes ago, Kzoo said:

October 1987?

I barely paid attention since I was only working part-time...after graduating from university 4 years before. I was too poor to even think about stock markets. Wonder if that means it will take another decade before the market recovers to its former height 2 wks. ago. 

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5 minutes ago, Dottles said:

Without question.

About 1 hr. before the markets opened today, I was adjusting my buy prices.... 1 stock down  another up in price by um....25 cents per share. Seems like dribbles...except getting close to retirement it gets heart-stopping.

I was so shocked when I checked my portfolio 3 hrs. later.

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1 minute ago, shootingstar said:

About 1 hr. before the markets opened today, I was adjusting my buy prices.... 1 stock down  another up in price by um....25 cents per share. Seems like dribbles...except getting close to retirement it gets heart-stopping.

I was so shocked when I checked my portfolio 3 hrs. later.

If I ever got fooling around with the market -- I'd give jsharr's company a try.  For realz. Otherwise I'm putting it in a well performing fund. I'm not picking individuals on hunches or something I read on page 33 of something on the dark web.  I don't have the time, interest, or guts really.  I would however, count cards.

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6 minutes ago, Dottles said:

If I ever got fooling around with the market -- I'd give jsharr's company a try.  For realz. Otherwise I'm putting it in a well performing fund. I'm not picking individuals on hunches or something I read on page 33 of something on the dark web.  I don't have the time, interest, or guts really.  I would however, count cards.

Got some funds also which not much is being done. They are wilting and panting abit.  (They were ok.)

No oil /gas.  I'm just glad I'm still working...hopefully not unnecessarily too long.

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6 minutes ago, Wilbur said:

Is jsharr rich?  :) 

No.  But I don't have access to you.  Look, we need to take baby steps here.  I've told you I would agree to clean and look after your Okanagan home whilst you were away.  My wife and I do a great job.  Once this relationship has been established -- I can look at hiring your services for investment advice.  I know.  I know.  Buy gold.  :skipping:

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13 hours ago, Kzoo said:

A recession defined as 2 consecutive quarters of economic decline measured by the GDP.  With the latest jobs numbers (latest before Coronavirus reached our shores) it’s highly unlikely.  We may be heading into a quarter of no growth in the economy but that quarter by itself would not define a recession.

 

 

13 hours ago, Allen said:

Thank you

 

...so we might be in the first quarter of a recession.  It's hard to tell except in retrospect.  That's why economists are able to express so many differing opinions.

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1 hour ago, Page Turner said:

 

...so we might be in the first quarter of a recession.  It's hard to tell except in retrospect.  That's why economists are able to express so many differing opinions.

Yes and then there is the added factor that a couple months after the fact the gov't bean counters adjust the growth numbers.  So we could have been in a recessionary period for 8 months before it was officially recognized.  Similar with growth.

 

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The stock market /= the economy.  The stock market usually just reflects economic sentiment.

Though this time it's going to affect the economy.  Valuations are dropping while credit is starting to squeeze.  Those tax cuts that were supposed to spur capital improvements instead went to stock buybacks.  So no money for capital spending, no jobs created, companies start cutting back, laying off.....

Coronavirus just jump started what was coming anyway

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On 3/10/2020 at 12:29 PM, Page Turner said:

 

...so we might be in the first quarter of a recession.  It's hard to tell except in retrospect.  That's why economists are able to express so many differing opinions.

This quarter is going to end badly with supply chains being disrupted, air travel way down and events getting canceled or postponed.  A lot of revenue just isn't getting spent.  If January and February were average months then March is likely to drag the quarter down. 

There are 2 1/2 weeks left in the quarter.  I don't see the Corona virus being resolved before then so the economic impact will spill over into the 2nd quarter.  The question then becomes how long will it last?

The first case of CORID-19 was reported in China in December and just now they're saying numbers are declining.  The first case of Corona was reported in Washington at the end of January.  If the US follows the same curve as China, we are about a month behind them.  So things could start looking better in a month depending on how bad the US gets hit.  It may be safe to say that April is going to suck economically.

So even if May and June are normal months, the second quarter could easily be down as well.

So yes, we could currently be in the middle of a recession.  As someone said above, we won't know for 8 months when all the numbers are known.

 

 

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On 3/9/2020 at 10:29 PM, Kzoo said:

A recession defined as 2 consecutive quarters of economic decline measured by the GDP.  With the latest jobs numbers (latest before Coronavirus reached our shores) it’s highly unlikely.  We may be heading into a quarter of no growth in the economy but that quarter by itself would not define a recession.

 

Classic definition, but the setup is there with at least two earning seasons impacted. The first will be the forthcoming as earnings fall flat not meeting (or exceeding) expectations - even if reduced guidance was given prior to the two week "quiet time". Then expect almost every company to compound the poor report by reducing forward expectations. This won't be a kneejerk dip return to a positive market.

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10 hours ago, Mr. Silly said:

This quarter is going to end badly with supply chains being disrupted, air travel way down and events getting canceled or postponed.  A lot of revenue just isn't getting spent.  If January and February were average months then March is likely to drag the quarter down. 

There are 2 1/2 weeks left in the quarter.  I don't see the Corona virus being resolved before then so the economic impact will spill over into the 2nd quarter.  The question then becomes how long will it last?

The first case of CORID-19 was reported in China in December and just now they're saying numbers are declining.  The first case of Corona was reported in Washington at the end of January.  If the US follows the same curve as China, we are about a month behind them.  So things could start looking better in a month depending on how bad the US gets hit.  It may be safe to say that April is going to suck economically.

So even if May and June are normal months, the second quarter could easily be down as well.

So yes, we could currently be in the middle of a recession.  As someone said above, we won't know for 8 months when all the numbers are known.

 

 

We haven't done what China did to lock it down and we probably won't.  Instead of "get in your house and don't come out for a month" we have people marching on the offices of sports agencies protesting that their kids can't play in tournaments.

Wuhan is only starting here.

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15 minutes ago, maddmaxx said:

We haven't done what China did to lock it down and we probably won't.  Instead of "get in your house and don't come out for a month" we have people marching on the offices of sports agencies protesting that their kids can't play in tournaments.

I know it is different here.  But at this point, we don't have any other model to base any guesses on.    

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