Jump to content

COVID-19 Updates


Dottleshead

Recommended Posts

2 hours ago, Mr. Grumpy said:

Here's an interesting site

It graphs the Rt number for the states.  The R number is the rate the virus is growing.  Above 1, it is increasing, below it is decreasing.  

You'll get to see the the effects of states loosening restrictions.  Naturally, it is dependent on testing.

 

1 hour ago, maddmaxx said:

Hmmm, Georga's rate is above the line. Doesn't look like it was ever bolow the line.   Where did this data come from?  :ph34r:

It looks like your state is fucked, Max.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Mr. Grumpy said:

Here's an interesting site

It graphs the Rt number for the states.  The R number is the rate the virus is growing.  Above 1, it is increasing, below it is decreasing.  

You'll get to see the the effects of states loosening restrictions.  Naturally, it is dependent on testing.

Nice find by the way.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Dottles said:

 

It looks like your state is fucked, Max.

Indeed, southwestern CT is just as bad as New York City.  That's because so many live there and work in NY.  Fortunately I'm out on the eastern fringe of the target zone.  To the best of my knowledge my town has 11 cases and one death.  We worry every day however as the shadow on the map gets darker and moves slowly east.  CT will not be opening up any time soon.  It would be a death sentence.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, maddmaxx said:

Indeed, southwestern CT is just as bad as New York City.  That's because so many live there and work in NY.  Fortunately I'm out on the eastern fringe of the target zone.  To the best of my knowledge my town has 11 cases and one death.  We worry every day however as the shadow on the map gets darker and moves slowly east.  CT will not be opening up any time soon.  It would be a death sentence.

Are you inbetween Hartford and Providence?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, Dottles said:

ECSU?

I took some classes there.  I went to daytime classes when I was working midnight to 7am.  I lived close to them 30 years ago.  One of my degrees is from there.  I consider it to by my joke degree as there is a lot of credit there for life experience.  Computer Science.  :lol:  From my viewpoint that's a bit like pyramid science. (the art of building pyramids)

  • Heart 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, Prophet Zacharia said:

He’s competing with the Mayor of Las Vegas for the “most willing to decimate a city” leadership award.

My sister is on a first name basis with him. Even she is saying he sounds like the stupidest governor in the country. 
Local tv did a poll. 98% of this red state thinks it is too soon. 

  • Awesome 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

One of two good things could happen from  the StupidStates reopening early:  Cases spike (this isn't the good thing) and finally people start seeing it's serious.  Too much "things would be the same if we were open", maybe they'll see what science knew.  Then they shut back down and everyone learns to wait.

Or, it moves the second wave ahead of schedule and gets it out of the way before flu season.  Meaning hospitals don't get a minute's rest

I'm getting tested tomorrow.  One of my wife's volunteers tested positive, so we all get called in.

  • Heart 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 hours ago, maddmaxx said:

CT shelter in place orders just extended to May 20 minimum.  Our cases are going back up again.

IL shelter in place orders just extended to May 30th.  Our cases never stopped going up.

If the predictions from this web site are true, maybe May 30th will be the start of the end for IL.  http://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, maddmaxx said:

Hopefully not

They seem off the mark and continuously updating. Not a huge benefit in prediction as a result. With over 50,000 deaths today, I can only hope their upper margin holds by August.

Last week IHME projected that Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. would total about 60,000 by August 4; this week that was revised to 68,000, with 95% certainty that the actual toll would be between 30,188 and 175,965.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 hours ago, 12string said:

Meaning hospitals don't get a minute's rest

I think another consideration other than fatigue and depletion of resources is the impact on the health of all the people have been delaying/deferring/avoiding medical treatment because of this. In many places, all "elective" surgeries are being deferred, but many of these are still necessary. The heart valve that was scheduled to be replaced in April may be significantly more of an issue if not corrected by August.

  • Heart 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's tricky interpreting trends from "daily new cases" because the number of daily tests is going up.  Maybe % of daily tests that are positive is a better metric.

There's an old saying among scientists: "There are three kinds of lies: while lies, damn lies, and statistics.

I've formally studied statistics at the multi-variable calculus level and that's helped me recognize that people in authority or reporting often spin numbers to make things to make them look better or worse than they really are. Of course, in some cases they're simply mathematically weak. Even in Fantasy Football one of the top reporters, ESPN's Matthew Berry, mentioned "Quarterback A" and cited numbers showing he was excellent and did the same for "Quarterback B" showing he was awful.  Then he revealed that A and B were the SAME person!  He said the lesson he was trying to teach was that any good writer can make any player look good or bad and you have to look deeper yourself to get a better sense of the truth.  If you sampled the different online networks reporting round 1 of the NFL draft yesterday, you could see that spinning in action!

You may remember the commercial from the 1960's that said, "Two out of every three people found Excedrin as good or better than regular aspirin."  It turned out that about 1/3 of the people liked Excedrin better, 1/3 found both the same, 1/3 found Aspirin better.  So 2/3 found Excedrin "as good or better" but 2/3 also found aspirin "as good or better!"

Scientists, especially in grad school, are carefully trained not to anticipate results and not to make assumptions about the results while interpreting them.

In W.H. Auden's "For the time being," he quotes one of the Three Wise Men of the New Testament:

To break down Her defenses and profit from the vision,

With rack-and-screw I put Nature through a thorough inquisition.

But She was so afraid that if I were disappointed,

I should hurt Her more – so Her answers were disjointed.

I did. I didn’t. I will. I won’t.

Nature is, in fact, just as big a liar as we are.

To discover how to be truthful now is the reason I follow this star.

I originally found this at the beginning of a chemistry grad. school textbook and I used to read this to my gifted students classes each year and ask them what it meant. The point is, of course, that true science is NOT what we filter through our expectations.

Most scientists are pretty good at adhering to the true scientific method, but not many politicians and reporters.

  • Heart 1
  • Awesome 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Another big statistical problem is that most worldwide and national data is based on the date reported, where some data may be on-time, delayed, in batches, etc.

For example, first look at the DATE REPORTED info of the daily deaths and the last 5-day averages for Maryland for Deaths, Hospitalizations and % positive cases.  Statistically it looks fairly flat though there's an upward trend in 5-day avg. daily deaths.

image.png.d24f7eb86478834b0832d08d4b2566be.png

But now, Maryland's COVID-19 site (https://coronavirus.maryland.gov/) includes a graph of deaths based on the ACTUAL DATE OF DEATH. The trend is slightly downhill! The last bar shows 28 confirmed and 4 probable deaths while the last number in the above data is 43. Looking at the other date of death numbers and it's clear the numbers reported in the table above are NOT the stuff occurring within 24 hours of the date.

image.png.9cc7fab6824c0c9f801b215904800d64.png

  • Heart 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Page 4, huh. New cases must be dropping? The Covid holiday is over? That what is seems like at work, even though I am now working from home until 5/18.

pitt got FDA approval for clinical use of a “hemilung”, a dialysis style approach to remove co2 from the body so as to avoid need for mechanical ventilation as long as possible.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 4/24/2020 at 3:44 PM, Prophet Zacharia said:

He should be wearing a mask and gloves if he is concerned about the transmission of Covid in that park.

I don't think he was there because HE was worried about COVID-19, but rather just wanting to do his job. 

These folks will see how the "system" works when an "unconstitutional" :wacko: law is applied.  A lot of wasted time, energy, and money is usually the end result. Folks should NOT get their understanding of the Constitution from cartoons or sitcoms. :(  I also like them thinking that having someone record the interaction would HELP the lady arrested! Ha!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Dottles said:

Our governor eased restrictions on outdoor activities. It's not much but give us more options to do things outside the house.

https://www.governor.wa.gov/news-media/inslee-announces-easing-outdoor-restrictions

It might not seem like much but it will when you are doing some of those activities.

Be safe Dottie, Couch needs you. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Couch_Incident said:

It might not seem like much but it will when you are doing some of those activities.

Be safe Dottie, Couch needs you. 

I am here for you Couch.  I plan on going nowhere and I will continue to practice my social distancing vigorously.  Meanwhile I trust you are doing the same.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Dottles said:

Our governor eased restrictions on outdoor activities. It's not much but give us more options to do things outside the house.

https://www.governor.wa.gov/news-media/inslee-announces-easing-outdoor-restrictions

We can play golf as of Friday. Of course it will be raining for the next ten days. And marinas will be open as of Friday. But it’s really hard to social distance on a boat.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...