Randomguy Posted April 23, 2020 Share #1051 Posted April 23, 2020 12 minutes ago, Couch_Incident said: No. Hmm, what should I do with that coffee, jsharrt? You can plainly see that Couch is being difficult. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Karen_Cooper_Incident Posted April 23, 2020 Share #1052 Posted April 23, 2020 1 minute ago, Randomguy said: Hmm, what should I do with that coffee, jsharrt? You can plainly see that Couch is being difficult. You should drink the coffee. What the hell is wrong with you? Coffee is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dottleshead ★ Posted April 23, 2020 Author Share #1053 Posted April 23, 2020 2 hours ago, Mr. Grumpy said: Here's an interesting site, It graphs the Rt number for the states. The R number is the rate the virus is growing. Above 1, it is increasing, below it is decreasing. You'll get to see the the effects of states loosening restrictions. Naturally, it is dependent on testing. 1 hour ago, maddmaxx said: Hmmm, Georga's rate is above the line. Doesn't look like it was ever bolow the line. Where did this data come from? It looks like your state is fucked, Max. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dottleshead ★ Posted April 23, 2020 Author Share #1054 Posted April 23, 2020 2 hours ago, Mr. Grumpy said: Here's an interesting site, It graphs the Rt number for the states. The R number is the rate the virus is growing. Above 1, it is increasing, below it is decreasing. You'll get to see the the effects of states loosening restrictions. Naturally, it is dependent on testing. Nice find by the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maddmaxx ★ Posted April 23, 2020 Share #1055 Posted April 23, 2020 5 minutes ago, Dottles said: It looks like your state is fucked, Max. Indeed, southwestern CT is just as bad as New York City. That's because so many live there and work in NY. Fortunately I'm out on the eastern fringe of the target zone. To the best of my knowledge my town has 11 cases and one death. We worry every day however as the shadow on the map gets darker and moves slowly east. CT will not be opening up any time soon. It would be a death sentence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dottleshead ★ Posted April 23, 2020 Author Share #1056 Posted April 23, 2020 2 minutes ago, maddmaxx said: Indeed, southwestern CT is just as bad as New York City. That's because so many live there and work in NY. Fortunately I'm out on the eastern fringe of the target zone. To the best of my knowledge my town has 11 cases and one death. We worry every day however as the shadow on the map gets darker and moves slowly east. CT will not be opening up any time soon. It would be a death sentence. Are you inbetween Hartford and Providence? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maddmaxx ★ Posted April 23, 2020 Share #1057 Posted April 23, 2020 Just now, Dottles said: Are you inbetween Hartford and Providence? Yes. I used to say if you looked at a night time picture of CT from space I lived where the lights stopped between NY and Boston and Providence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dottleshead ★ Posted April 23, 2020 Author Share #1058 Posted April 23, 2020 4 minutes ago, maddmaxx said: Yes. I used to say if you looked at a night time picture of CT from space I lived where the lights stopped between NY and Boston and Providence. ECSU? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maddmaxx ★ Posted April 23, 2020 Share #1059 Posted April 23, 2020 12 minutes ago, Dottles said: ECSU? I took some classes there. I went to daytime classes when I was working midnight to 7am. I lived close to them 30 years ago. One of my degrees is from there. I consider it to by my joke degree as there is a lot of credit there for life experience. Computer Science. From my viewpoint that's a bit like pyramid science. (the art of building pyramids) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maddmaxx ★ Posted April 23, 2020 Share #1060 Posted April 23, 2020 CT shelter in place orders just extended to May 20 minimum. Our cases are going back up again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randomguy Posted April 23, 2020 Share #1061 Posted April 23, 2020 1 hour ago, Couch_Incident said: You should drink the coffee. What the hell is wrong with you? Coffee is good. But I won't, and I don't want jsharrt's awesome gesture to be all wasted. He demanded I send it to you. Is there a surrogate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prophet Zacharia Posted April 23, 2020 Share #1062 Posted April 23, 2020 2 hours ago, Allen said: If everyone in the state gets it we will lose one mid sized city. That’s acceptable losses for our governor. He’s competing with the Mayor of Las Vegas for the “most willing to decimate a city” leadership award. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randomguy Posted April 23, 2020 Share #1063 Posted April 23, 2020 12 minutes ago, Prophet Zacharia said: He’s competing with the Mayor of Las Vegas for the “most willing to decimate a city” leadership award. She isn't a very good mayor, it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Karen_Cooper_Incident Posted April 23, 2020 Share #1064 Posted April 23, 2020 23 minutes ago, Randomguy said: But I won't, and I don't want jsharrt's awesome gesture to be all wasted. He demanded I send it to you. Is there a surrogate? Sorry man, I am not accepting packages from NYC at the moment. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randomguy Posted April 23, 2020 Share #1065 Posted April 23, 2020 2 minutes ago, Couch_Incident said: Sorry man, I am not accepting packages from NYC at the moment. I will give it to a homeless shelter or somesuch, then. Somebody should dig it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allen ★ Posted April 23, 2020 Share #1066 Posted April 23, 2020 14 minutes ago, Prophet Zacharia said: He’s competing with the Mayor of Las Vegas for the “most willing to decimate a city” leadership award. My sister is on a first name basis with him. Even she is saying he sounds like the stupidest governor in the country. Local tv did a poll. 98% of this red state thinks it is too soon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
12string Posted April 23, 2020 Share #1067 Posted April 23, 2020 One of two good things could happen from the StupidStates reopening early: Cases spike (this isn't the good thing) and finally people start seeing it's serious. Too much "things would be the same if we were open", maybe they'll see what science knew. Then they shut back down and everyone learns to wait. Or, it moves the second wave ahead of schedule and gets it out of the way before flu season. Meaning hospitals don't get a minute's rest I'm getting tested tomorrow. One of my wife's volunteers tested positive, so we all get called in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Square Wheels Posted April 24, 2020 Share #1068 Posted April 24, 2020 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bikeguy Posted April 24, 2020 Share #1069 Posted April 24, 2020 Without reading thru all 22 pages... Was this web site mentioned before? http://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dottleshead ★ Posted April 24, 2020 Author Share #1070 Posted April 24, 2020 10 hours ago, Randomguy said: I will give it to a homeless shelter or somesuch, then. Somebody should dig it. Please send it to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randomguy Posted April 24, 2020 Share #1071 Posted April 24, 2020 47 minutes ago, Dottles said: Please send it to me. Done, please pm me your address. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bikeguy Posted April 24, 2020 Share #1072 Posted April 24, 2020 12 hours ago, maddmaxx said: CT shelter in place orders just extended to May 20 minimum. Our cases are going back up again. IL shelter in place orders just extended to May 30th. Our cases never stopped going up. If the predictions from this web site are true, maybe May 30th will be the start of the end for IL. http://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maddmaxx ★ Posted April 24, 2020 Share #1073 Posted April 24, 2020 7 hours ago, Bikeguy said: Without reading thru all 22 pages... Was this web site mentioned before? http://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america Hopefully not. You can read about them here. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Institute_for_Health_Metrics_and_Evaluation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prophet Zacharia Posted April 24, 2020 Share #1074 Posted April 24, 2020 1 hour ago, maddmaxx said: Hopefully not They seem off the mark and continuously updating. Not a huge benefit in prediction as a result. With over 50,000 deaths today, I can only hope their upper margin holds by August. Last week IHME projected that Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. would total about 60,000 by August 4; this week that was revised to 68,000, with 95% certainty that the actual toll would be between 30,188 and 175,965. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prophet Zacharia Posted April 24, 2020 Share #1075 Posted April 24, 2020 16 hours ago, 12string said: Meaning hospitals don't get a minute's rest I think another consideration other than fatigue and depletion of resources is the impact on the health of all the people have been delaying/deferring/avoiding medical treatment because of this. In many places, all "elective" surgeries are being deferred, but many of these are still necessary. The heart valve that was scheduled to be replaced in April may be significantly more of an issue if not corrected by August. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post BuffJim Posted April 24, 2020 Popular Post Share #1076 Posted April 24, 2020 Local news did a story of my brother's friend release from rehab center (after 3 weeks in ICU first): Homecoming celebration for Wheatfield man who beat COVID-19 Homecoming celebration for Wheatfield man who beat COVID-19 The fight against COVID-19 can be extremely tough for some patients. The numbers show only about 20% of people o... 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MickinMD ★ Posted April 24, 2020 Share #1077 Posted April 24, 2020 It's tricky interpreting trends from "daily new cases" because the number of daily tests is going up. Maybe % of daily tests that are positive is a better metric. There's an old saying among scientists: "There are three kinds of lies: while lies, damn lies, and statistics. I've formally studied statistics at the multi-variable calculus level and that's helped me recognize that people in authority or reporting often spin numbers to make things to make them look better or worse than they really are. Of course, in some cases they're simply mathematically weak. Even in Fantasy Football one of the top reporters, ESPN's Matthew Berry, mentioned "Quarterback A" and cited numbers showing he was excellent and did the same for "Quarterback B" showing he was awful. Then he revealed that A and B were the SAME person! He said the lesson he was trying to teach was that any good writer can make any player look good or bad and you have to look deeper yourself to get a better sense of the truth. If you sampled the different online networks reporting round 1 of the NFL draft yesterday, you could see that spinning in action! You may remember the commercial from the 1960's that said, "Two out of every three people found Excedrin as good or better than regular aspirin." It turned out that about 1/3 of the people liked Excedrin better, 1/3 found both the same, 1/3 found Aspirin better. So 2/3 found Excedrin "as good or better" but 2/3 also found aspirin "as good or better!" Scientists, especially in grad school, are carefully trained not to anticipate results and not to make assumptions about the results while interpreting them. In W.H. Auden's "For the time being," he quotes one of the Three Wise Men of the New Testament: To break down Her defenses and profit from the vision, With rack-and-screw I put Nature through a thorough inquisition. But She was so afraid that if I were disappointed, I should hurt Her more – so Her answers were disjointed. I did. I didn’t. I will. I won’t. Nature is, in fact, just as big a liar as we are. To discover how to be truthful now is the reason I follow this star. I originally found this at the beginning of a chemistry grad. school textbook and I used to read this to my gifted students classes each year and ask them what it meant. The point is, of course, that true science is NOT what we filter through our expectations. Most scientists are pretty good at adhering to the true scientific method, but not many politicians and reporters. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maddmaxx ★ Posted April 24, 2020 Share #1078 Posted April 24, 2020 The question today is however which scientists are actually politicians. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MickinMD ★ Posted April 24, 2020 Share #1079 Posted April 24, 2020 Another big statistical problem is that most worldwide and national data is based on the date reported, where some data may be on-time, delayed, in batches, etc. For example, first look at the DATE REPORTED info of the daily deaths and the last 5-day averages for Maryland for Deaths, Hospitalizations and % positive cases. Statistically it looks fairly flat though there's an upward trend in 5-day avg. daily deaths. But now, Maryland's COVID-19 site (https://coronavirus.maryland.gov/) includes a graph of deaths based on the ACTUAL DATE OF DEATH. The trend is slightly downhill! The last bar shows 28 confirmed and 4 probable deaths while the last number in the above data is 43. Looking at the other date of death numbers and it's clear the numbers reported in the table above are NOT the stuff occurring within 24 hours of the date. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Randomguy Posted April 24, 2020 Popular Post Share #1080 Posted April 24, 2020 2 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrentonMakes Posted April 24, 2020 Share #1081 Posted April 24, 2020 11 minutes ago, Randomguy said: That's better than the original! Rhyming "masses" with "masses" was just silly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randomguy Posted April 24, 2020 Share #1082 Posted April 24, 2020 How can people actually be this stupid? The cops are being amazingly patient with these people, not sure how they are able to do it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prophet Zacharia Posted April 24, 2020 Share #1083 Posted April 24, 2020 3 hours ago, Randomguy said: How can people actually be this stupid? The cops are being amazingly patient with these people, not sure how they are able to do it. He should be wearing a mask and gloves if he is concerned about the transmission of Covid in that park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randomguy Posted April 24, 2020 Share #1084 Posted April 24, 2020 3 minutes ago, Prophet Zacharia said: He should be wearing a mask and gloves if he is concerned about the transmission of Covid in that park. I just realized that no one is wearing a mask in the whole video. I wonder where this is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prophet Zacharia Posted April 27, 2020 Share #1085 Posted April 27, 2020 Page 4, huh. New cases must be dropping? The Covid holiday is over? That what is seems like at work, even though I am now working from home until 5/18. pitt got FDA approval for clinical use of a “hemilung”, a dialysis style approach to remove co2 from the body so as to avoid need for mechanical ventilation as long as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dottleshead ★ Posted April 27, 2020 Author Share #1086 Posted April 27, 2020 Well at very least this covid virus has shown us how unprotected and unprepared we are as a nation. Remember -- we are the greatest. On 4/24/2020 at 12:49 PM, Randomguy said: I just realized that no one is wearing a mask in the whole video. I wonder where this is? Idaho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allen ★ Posted April 27, 2020 Share #1087 Posted April 27, 2020 Talked to my brother in law. Downtown Athens was a ghost town today, on the first day of full business. He was home by 2:00 pm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Razors Edge ★ Posted April 27, 2020 Share #1088 Posted April 27, 2020 On 4/24/2020 at 3:44 PM, Prophet Zacharia said: He should be wearing a mask and gloves if he is concerned about the transmission of Covid in that park. I don't think he was there because HE was worried about COVID-19, but rather just wanting to do his job. These folks will see how the "system" works when an "unconstitutional" law is applied. A lot of wasted time, energy, and money is usually the end result. Folks should NOT get their understanding of the Constitution from cartoons or sitcoms. I also like them thinking that having someone record the interaction would HELP the lady arrested! Ha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
~wildernecss Posted April 28, 2020 Share #1089 Posted April 28, 2020 10 hours ago, Allen said: Talked to my brother in law. Downtown Athens was a ghost town today, on the first day of full business. He was home by 2:00 pm That's interesting. And encouraging? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dottleshead ★ Posted April 28, 2020 Author Share #1090 Posted April 28, 2020 Our governor eased restrictions on outdoor activities. It's not much but give us more options to do things outside the house. https://www.governor.wa.gov/news-media/inslee-announces-easing-outdoor-restrictions 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Karen_Cooper_Incident Posted April 28, 2020 Share #1091 Posted April 28, 2020 1 minute ago, Dottles said: Our governor eased restrictions on outdoor activities. It's not much but give us more options to do things outside the house. https://www.governor.wa.gov/news-media/inslee-announces-easing-outdoor-restrictions It might not seem like much but it will when you are doing some of those activities. Be safe Dottie, Couch needs you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dottleshead ★ Posted April 28, 2020 Author Share #1092 Posted April 28, 2020 Just now, Couch_Incident said: It might not seem like much but it will when you are doing some of those activities. Be safe Dottie, Couch needs you. I am here for you Couch. I plan on going nowhere and I will continue to practice my social distancing vigorously. Meanwhile I trust you are doing the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Karen_Cooper_Incident Posted April 28, 2020 Share #1093 Posted April 28, 2020 1 minute ago, Dottles said: Meanwhile I trust you are doing the same. I think I had sex with Alfred E. Neuman in a dream last night. Mudkipz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dottleshead ★ Posted April 28, 2020 Author Share #1094 Posted April 28, 2020 1 minute ago, Couch_Incident said: I think I had sex with Alfred E. Neuman in a dream last night. Mudkipz Must've been that Michael Strahan gap in his teeth that got you hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Karen_Cooper_Incident Posted April 28, 2020 Share #1095 Posted April 28, 2020 1 minute ago, Dottles said: Must've been that Michael Strahan gap in his teeth that got you hot. Sounds plausible. Mudkipz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Silly Posted April 28, 2020 Share #1096 Posted April 28, 2020 16 minutes ago, Couch_Incident said: I think I had sex with Alfred E. Neuman in a dream last night. Were you the big spoon or the little spoon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Karen_Cooper_Incident Posted April 28, 2020 Share #1097 Posted April 28, 2020 1 minute ago, Mr. Grumpy said: Were you the big spoon or the little spoon? It was a mishmash or body parts and testes. Mudkipz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dottleshead ★ Posted April 28, 2020 Author Share #1098 Posted April 28, 2020 https://patch.com/washington/seattle/seattle-roots-mad-magazine-mascot-alfred-e-neuman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Razors Edge ★ Posted April 28, 2020 Share #1099 Posted April 28, 2020 On 4/22/2020 at 5:15 PM, Razors Edge said: Still growing and still adding deaths Cases still climbing (+120/day more than last week), and deaths still climbing (+52 in a week) - and they redid the dashboard!: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prophet Zacharia Posted April 28, 2020 Share #1100 Posted April 28, 2020 3 hours ago, Dottles said: Our governor eased restrictions on outdoor activities. It's not much but give us more options to do things outside the house. https://www.governor.wa.gov/news-media/inslee-announces-easing-outdoor-restrictions We can play golf as of Friday. Of course it will be raining for the next ten days. And marinas will be open as of Friday. But it’s really hard to social distance on a boat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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