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COVID-19 Updates


Dottleshead

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Just now, sheep_herder said:

First local case was reported Thursday afternoon. Three other cases were reported earlier, but they brought it with them from another state.

Probably by self-centered guys like me ignoring the travel bans and heading across states seeking vacations.  But I give you my word that I'm taking this stuff very seriously and have no plans in coming into contact with anyone.

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19 minutes ago, maddmaxx said:

On the other hand, the following is a good read about some of what has been learned about dealing with covid and how the most sick are treated.  Knowledge changes how things are done from time to time.

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/what-icu-doctors-have-learned-about-covid-19-how-they-n1225801

Very good article - thanks!  Yup, learning form experience is awesome.

Here's another good one.

https://slate.com/technology/2020/06/advice-on-reopening-activies-er-doctor.html?utm_source=pocket-newtab

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31 minutes ago, RalphWaldoMooseworth said:

Very good article - thanks!  Yup, learning form experience is awesome.

Here's another good one.

https://slate.com/technology/2020/06/advice-on-reopening-activies-er-doctor.html?utm_source=pocket-newtab

Interesting read.

Slate has some strange articles however.  Found in the list below this article:  My Husband is Fine—but My Desire for a Well-Endowed Man Is Getting Out of Control

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17 hours ago, Allen said:

Getting close now in my county. We have one hospital with 77 beds, 53 are occupied by covid patients. 
Autumn is going to be interesting. 

Michigan and Georgia have about the same population but Georgia has almost 52,000 active cases to Michigan's 17,600

image.png.10dfb9a7ebdda6d35746e2cf715c423b.png

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1 hour ago, Allen said:

How open is Michigan?

We're kinda open unless you ask a certain someone from the west side of the state.  A lot of restriction (i.e. barbers and sit in restaurants at 1/2 capacity) will be lifted next week.  I don't know about movie theaters, casinos and other entertainment venues.  

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1 hour ago, Randomguy said:

The difference is quite possibly the governor’s different approaches and restrictions, a reasonable person could conclude.  

Definitely.  At one point, Michigan had the 3rd most cases after New York and New Jersey.   We've got the 9th most now.  We are fortunate to have effective leadership here.

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State confirms 367 new COVID-19 cases, including nine deaths

State health officials confirmed 367 new COVID-19 cases in Washington on Saturday, as well as nine additional deaths.

The update brings the state’s totals to 25,538 cases and 1,213 deaths, meaning 4.7% of people diagnosed in Washington have died, according to the state Department of Health’s (DOH) data dashboard. The data is as of 11:59 p.m. Friday.

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45 minutes ago, Dottles said:

Northwest Territories, baby!

That’s total population, not Covid cases.

I’m in Erie today. It’s a totally different vibe than in Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh, now “green”, has near universal mask wearing wherever you go. Erie, still “yellow” due to continuing rise in Covid cases, has a far more vitriolic attitude towards our Governor’s interventions. People wear masks in stores, as per the law, but nowhere else. I see no masks and no social distancing at the boat yard.

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5 hours ago, Prophet Zacharia said:

Truvalu? We don’t have one of those, our hardware store choices are Lowe’s, Homedepot, Ace and a locally owned, independent store.

The independent could be tru value, it is like a supplier. There are a few others too. I think ours is DoItBest

You weren’t Sirius but I answered siriusly. :)

Tuvalu!

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What's sad, scary, and shocking (mildly) is that some states & governors are going with the "less (information) is more (cover for them politically)" approach.  It would be criminal in a properly functioning society (to lie and/or withhold important & PUBLIC-owned information), but in 2020, where we truly see that a fish rots from the head, it's not likely that many will be "punished" beyond the folks who die from COVID.  Add in the "wouldn't they die from something anyway" narrative that has been woven in, and I'd say, while I am not worried too much about myself, older folks should be very wary of thinking their location is "fine" or "safe".

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29 minutes ago, sheep_herder said:

Locally, now up to 8 confirmed cases. I am concerned 'the gate has been opened'!

https://montana.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=7c34f3412536439491adcc2103421d4b

8 is still less than the 178 cases in our county.   Custer county's population about 11,000.   LaSalle county's population about 110,000.   Your still a factor of 2 better off than my county.    Then again testing seems to be lacking compared to the number of people who actually has (or had) the virus. 

That's why I look more at the number of deaths attributed to the virus.    LaSalle county has had 16 deaths.  The state of Montana (about 1 million in population) has had 19 deaths.   That tells me you are probably safer than I am.    

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3 minutes ago, Bikeguy said:

https://montana.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=7c34f3412536439491adcc2103421d4b

8 is still less than the 178 cases in our county.   Custer county's population about 11,000.   LaSalle county's population about 110,000.   Your still a factor of 2 better off than my county.    Then again testing seems to be lacking compared to the number of people who actually has (or had) the virus. 

That's why I look more at the number of deaths attributed to the virus.    LaSalle county has had 16 deaths.  The state of Montana (about 1 million in population) has had 19 deaths.   That tells me you are probably safer than I am.    

Is this a contest? I thin not!!:rolleyes:

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3 hours ago, Bikeguy said:

That's why I look more at the number of deaths attributed to the virus.    LaSalle county has had 16 deaths.  The state of Montana (about 1 million in population) has had 19 deaths.   That tells me you are probably safer than I am.    

Last I saw Washington was just under 5%.  That's about 1 in 20.  i must say though,I think I'd have a good shot at that 1 in 20.

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9 hours ago, sheep_herder said:

Is this a contest? I thin not!!

No... this isn't a contest at all.   I was trying to say you are in a much safer location compared to my location,

Then again, using the contest analogy, Montana is winning....   Like golf, low score wins.  Compared to all of the continuous 48 states, MT has the lowest death rate per million of population.   The data is sorted best to worst.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

image.png.a388f1f1698c6622a27d540da25977f2.png

 

Sorting the list, worst to best... 

image.png.64d616e5b283cc39c8164df0dc0b16c4.png

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On 6/12/2020 at 8:36 PM, Dottles said:

 

Agreed. That was the most pathetic post I've ever read from him. More right wing conspiracies. The nutbags out in the street are going to take this to a new level. A lot of those folks are going to get it. But he'll have some excuse about his civil liberties. Please @Kzoo go out to as many restaurants with your church friends. It's totally safe.

 

On 6/12/2020 at 8:41 PM, Randomguy said:

Yeah, I edited myself a good bit on that one.  You can do much better than this, Kzoo.

Mighty tall horses you cowboys are riding.  Thankfully  we have you here to set @Kzoo straight for having a different POV than you.  

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55 minutes ago, Bikeguy said:

No... this isn't a contest at all.   I was trying to say you are in a much safer location compared to my location,

Then again, using the contest analogy, Montana is winning....   Like golf, low score wins.  Compared to all of the continuous 48 states, MT has the lowest death rate per million of population.   The data is sorted best to worst.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

image.png.a388f1f1698c6622a27d540da25977f2.png

 

Sorting the list, worst to best... 

image.png.64d616e5b283cc39c8164df0dc0b16c4.png

I look at it with the overlay of population density as well.  As the charts show - with "density rank" next to the state name, pretty much the denser the state, the more COVID.  With the exception of Hawaii and its isolation, the trends are pretty obvious and show that folks in Montana, while seeing some cases, just don't have the density for it ever to skyrocket their numbers.

COVID-Dense2.png.0bd59273de05c071e77da180b4e75160.pngCOVID-Dense1.png.be4700d5e203d5fcefb5a857fd907453.png

 

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2 minutes ago, sheep_herder said:

Yes, we are glad to be living where we do within the state and out of town.

Yep density of states, but also density of the various parts of the states is hugely important.  Limit exposure to the denser parts of the nation, state, county, neighborhood, and your odds keep improving.  You are almost as remote as you can get without being out in the boonies of Alaska!

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1 hour ago, Razors Edge said:

the trends are pretty obvious and show that folks in Montana, while seeing some cases, just don't have the density for it ever to skyrocket their numbers.

The exceptions would be Nebraska, Iowa and South Dakota.  They have pretty high Cases / 1 million for how sparsely they're populated.  

 

image.png.18da0862e9b568d8f71a390320e5e50a.png

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3 minutes ago, Mr. Grumpy said:

They have pretty high Cases / 1 million for how sparsely they're populated.  

IMO..  The problem with using the number of cases per million, is how the testing has been done.   Or hasn't been done.... 

How many millions of people in more populated areas have had the virus with mild symptoms that were never tested positive? 

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15 minutes ago, Mr. Grumpy said:

The exceptions would be Nebraska, Iowa and South Dakota.  They have pretty high Cases / 1 million for how sparsely they're populated.  

 

image.png.18da0862e9b568d8f71a390320e5e50a.png

Don't forget, those are areas with big meat packing facilities, that were very hard hit with the virus. Lack of density for a whole state kind of loses meaning, when you have some very high density pockets that are hard hit.

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1 hour ago, Goat Geddah said:

 

Mighty tall horses you cowboys are riding.  Thankfully  we have you here to set @Kzoo straight for having a different POV than you.  

Don't tell me you don't know how diseases work either.  It's not very hard when you are married to somebody that works in healthcare and has first hand accounts of what's going on. I honestly don't care about how you or Kzoo think about it.  Nor anybody here really.  But if you're going to put hocus pocus shit out there, I've got a few good UFO stories for you.

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23 minutes ago, Mr. Grumpy said:

The exceptions would be Nebraska, Iowa and South Dakota.  They have pretty high Cases / 1 million for how sparsely they're populated.  

 

image.png.18da0862e9b568d8f71a390320e5e50a.png

A LOT plays into the story and the stats.  Nebraska, Iowa, and SD all have areas with "high density" whether cities or factories, so those are the likely hotspots.  The density stuff, though, lets us look at who is punching above their weights (and who is underperforming). 

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The first month or so of high deaths in the Mid-Atlantic States featured 60% to 80% of deaths occurring in Nursing Homes.  I'm wondering if the lower death rates now are due to the most vulnerable being previously culled from the herd?  Someone told me that deaths due to Heart Disease, Cancer, etc. are down so maybe COVID-19-attributed deaths are inflated due other primary causes, like flu deaths are.  There may be some truth there, but I've never heard of the flu wiping out more than half the patients in a lot of nursing homes within two months.

Those Hospitalized for C19 in Maryland fell from a high of 1707 to 745 now and the 6 deaths in the last 24 hours are the lowest since the state's site began listing them at the beginning of April.  In my 620K population county, the 16 new cases are the fewest reported in 24 hrs since March 30th despite much more testing now.  Still, the 5-day moving daily-case avg. for my county, 57, hasn't fallen much in the past two months.  Hopefully, the numbers will drop low but some restrictions will be kept in place until a vaccine and/or strong treatment are found.

My biggest fear is that things will get too lax - like Philadelphia in September 1918 when it assumed the Spanish Flu Pandemic was done, held a hugely-attended World War Liberty Loan Parade, and was whacked with a new wave of flu deaths.  Or like Tchaikovsky being tired of the Cholera Epidemic in 1893 St. Petersburg, not bothering to boil water before drinking it, and dying of cholera soon after.

Still, the Maryland numbers look promising, despite Memorial Day beach crowds and Phase-two reopenings kicking in (the last several Date of Death numbers will rise slightly as delayed reports come in):

image.thumb.png.531916d87493346c81f65849567acd51.png

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IMO the lower death rates now are because doctors have learned a lot about treating the virus in the past 5 months.  There are far fewer people going on ventilators than at first because it's been learned that they don't work very well.  Other methods have proven to work better.  High flow nasal oxygen is now used.  It wasn't at first because "the word" was that this raised the risk that doctors and nurses had to take.  

Here is an article that points to some of the many changes that have taken place.

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/what-icu-doctors-have-learned-about-covid-19-how-they-n1225801

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My county:

Cases –324– That is three more cases in the past 48 hours
Total deaths – 22 – that’s one more death reported in the past 48 hours
Hospitalized – 54 – that’s one more hospitalization in the past 48 hours

The county next door:

Cases – 5,172  – that’s 83 new cases reported in the past 48 hours
Total deaths – 152 – that’s two deaths reported in the past 48 hours
Hospitalized – 774  – That is 5 more hospitalizations reported in the last 48 hours

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7 minutes ago, Allen said:

My county:

Cases –324– That is three more cases in the past 48 hours
Total deaths – 22 – that’s one more death reported in the past 48 hours
Hospitalized – 54 – that’s one more hospitalization in the past 48 hours

The county next door:

Cases – 5,172  – that’s 83 new cases reported in the past 48 hours
Total deaths – 152 – that’s two deaths reported in the past 48 hours
Hospitalized – 774  – That is 5 more hospitalizations reported in the last 48 hours

But the curve, Allen.  The curve.

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2 hours ago, MickinMD said:

Someone told me that deaths due to Heart Disease, Cancer, etc. are down so maybe COVID-19-attributed deaths are inflated due other primary causes, like flu deaths are. 

These are the standard "who told you" and "what were their sources" sort of questions.

A phrase heard way too much these days to spread lies is "People are telling me..." without any more details than that.

1 hour ago, maddmaxx said:

IMO the lower death rates now are because doctors have learned a lot about treating the virus in the past 5 months. 

Definitely has to have a large impact along with processes in place to specifically treat COVID so it doesn't overwhelm a hospital as easily.

2 hours ago, MickinMD said:

Still, the Maryland numbers look promising, despite Memorial Day beach crowds and Phase-two reopenings kicking in (the last several Date of Death numbers will rise slightly as delayed reports come in):

I would LOVE to see Florida's numbers.  I wonder if there will be repercussions to withholding and even twisting the true situation in Florida or if that's just the new normal that folks can expect. :(  Mick's charts on Florida's raw data would help explain why they aren't high on the charts BikeGuy posted (they are tenth densest US state).

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