COVID-19 Updates

[Razors Edge ★]

On 5/4/2020 at 7:57 PM, Razors Edge said:

A big jump in deaths this past few days - from 138 up to 204.  That's a lot. And 20% more cases than less than a week ago.  Maybe we're testing more, but the deaths do worry me.

11 days later, and a 2,500 more cases (50% increase), a reduction in the new cases(!), but 76 more deaths (7 a day and a 33% increase in total). I'd say we're doing more testing, but the rate of deaths per day and rate of new cases going down are definitely positive changes.

[MickinMD ★]

Any graph-loving nuts here will love this page as I do. It was over 70 graphs of various coronavirus statistics.  Scary is the fact that South American and African new cases are soaring or showing signs of doing so - it's the equivalent of our November there - while most Northern Hemisphere countries are having fewer new cases.

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data

[maddmaxx ★]

I've heard that if you test less you have fewer cases.  Virus problem solved.

[donkpow]

18 minutes ago, maddmaxx said:

I've heard that if you test less you have fewer cases.  Virus problem solved.

What virus problem?

[Razors Edge ★]

43 minutes ago, maddmaxx said:

I've heard that if you test less you have fewer cases.  Virus problem solved.

Pretty scary what people will believe. Or hear and not run screaming from the room looking for better options.

[Dottleshead ★]

20 hours ago, Razors Edge said:

All things considered, though, looking at the diagram from the study of how one person spreads COVID to those around them, it's not hard to see that a barber shop where masks are not worn or not worn properly IS a health hazard in a pandemic.  I do see inconsistency in application of what is open vs closed, but man, it is tough to back a business not even trying to check the spread of COVID.

I don't know WTF this chart says but I like the colored circles.

[BR46]

I've wondered. 

What good is the testing if you take the test and it would show negative but 5 minutes after you took the test you stopped at Walmart and picked up the virus off a shopping cart. 

You will think that you are negative until the symptoms start showing up. 

[Razors Edge ★]

1 minute ago, Dottles said:

I don't know WTF this chart says but I like the colored circles.

You might understand "blue is bad" better?

And, dude, just read the damn article it came from!

Workplaces: Another great example is the outbreak in a call center (see below). A single infected employee came to work on the 11th floor of a building. That floor had 216 employees. Over the period of a week, 94 of those people became infected (43.5%: the blue chairs). 92 of those 94 people became sick (only 2 remained asymptomatic). Notice how one side of the office is primarily infected, while there are very few people infected on the other side. While exact number of people infected by respiratory droplets / respiratory exposure versus fomite transmission (door handles, shared water coolers, elevator buttons etc.) is unknown. It serves to highlight that being in an enclosed space, sharing the same air for a prolonged period increases your chances of exposure and infection. Another 3 people on other floors of the building were infected, but the authors were not able to trace the infection to the primary cluster on the 11th floor. Interestingly, even though there were considerable interaction between workers on different floors of the building in elevators and the lobby, the outbreak was mostly limited to a single floor (ref). This highlights the importance of exposure and time in the spreading of SARS-CoV2.

[Dottleshead ★]

3 minutes ago, BR46 said:

I've wondered. 

What good is the testing if you take the test and it would show negative but 5 minutes after you took the test you stopped at Walmart and picked up the virus off a shopping cart. 

You will think that you are negative until the symptoms start showing up. 

This is exactly right.  The asymptomatic piece of it is the real problem.

[Razors Edge ★]

5 minutes ago, BR46 said:

I've wondered. 

What good is the testing if you take the test and it would show negative but 5 minutes after you took the test you stopped at Walmart and picked up the virus off a shopping cart. 

You will think that you are negative until the symptoms start showing up. 

Are you kidding?

A very simple one is that testing would weed you out if you were positive.  Seems a very good reason. Another would be that it provides broader understanding of the range of the disease.  Also, like the MLB and now the WH are going to do, test OFTEN is important in high risk places, so the tested negative, shopped, and never tested again doesn't happen in the higher risk areas. There are a multitude of other reasons as well.

What there isn't is a single reason NOT to test during a pandemic.

1 minute ago, Dottles said:

This is exactly right.  The asymptomatic piece of it is the real problem.

Tossing the baby with the bathwater???

[Dottleshead ★]

4 minutes ago, Razors Edge said:

Are you kidding?

A very simple one is that testing would weed you out if you were positive.  Seems a very good reason. Another would be that it provides broader understanding of the range of the disease.  Also, like the MLB and now the WH are going to do, test OFTEN is important in high risk places, so the tested negative, shopped, and never tested again doesn't happen in the higher risk areas. There are a multitude of other reasons as well.

What there isn't is a single reason NOT to test during a pandemic.

Tossing the baby with the bathwater???

I don't know.  I just woke up and didn't read the whole context.  We should be testing the shit out of everything and also producing colorful graphs. More data!  That way you keep buying our stuff.

[BR46]

10 minutes ago, Razors Edge said:

Are you kidding?

I'm not saying don't test. 

What I'm trying to say if someone test negative but 5 minutes later picks up the virus with out knowing it and infected people later that night.

What good was the test. 

[Dottleshead ★]

4 minutes ago, BR46 said:

I'm not saying don't test. 

What I'm trying to say if someone test negative but 5 minutes later picks up the virus with out knowing it and infected people later that night.

What good was the test. 

Tests give you a measurement in an instance of time.  Having that information is valuable even if it changes fairly rapidly.

[maddmaxx ★]

1 hour ago, BR46 said:

I've wondered. 

What good is the testing if you take the test and it would show negative but 5 minutes after you took the test you stopped at Walmart and picked up the virus off a shopping cart. 

You will think that you are negative until the symptoms start showing up. 

That's why one test means little.  Constant testing statistically improves your chances by weeding the infected out of the pool before they can infect many others.  Test and isolate, test and isolate, test and isolate.  That's how you slowly choke a virus like this to death.  On the other hand if that doesn't work in a week we can jump ship and go crazy.

[donkpow]

Testing would also facilitate contact tracing. People with positive results would trace to all the other people who don't know they were in contact.

[Razors Edge ★]

1 minute ago, donkpow said:

Testing would also facilitate contact tracing. People with positive results would trace to all the other people who don't know they were in contact.

I saw an interesting nugget where you allow places to open, but to enable contact tracing, you require the establishment to keep records of customers.  Restaurants likely could do this relatively easily, but so could other places.

[donkpow]

Just now, Razors Edge said:

I saw an interesting nugget where you allow places to open, but to enable contact tracing, you require the establishment to keep records of customers.  Restaurants likely could do this relatively easily, but so could other places.

China is making that thing mandatory. It's being processed through the cell phones. If you are suspected of having been near someone, even a stranger, who has the disease or who has been near someone who has the disease, you are barred from entry. Yellow means you need to self quarantine and red means you should seek treatment. Anything other than green and you are barred from service or locale.

[maddmaxx ★]

2 minutes ago, donkpow said:

China is making that thing mandatory. It's being processed through the cell phones. If you are suspected of having been near someone, even a stranger, who has the disease or who has been near someone who has the disease, you are barred from entry. Yellow means you need to self quarantine and red means you should seek treatment. Anything other than green and you are barred from service or locale.

Here we worry about a violation of your privacy more than a violation of your lungs.

[donkpow]

2 minutes ago, maddmaxx said:

Here we worry about a violation of your privacy more than a violation of your lungs.

Google is making software that notifies the anonymous user that he or she has been in close proximity to someone who may pose a risk. You could share it or not, that's up to you. Or you could act on the information.

[Kzoo]

1 hour ago, BR46 said:

I've wondered. 

What good is the testing if you take the test and it would show negative but 5 minutes after you took the test you stopped at Walmart and picked up the virus off a shopping cart. 

You will think that you are negative until the symptoms start showing up. 

While you are right and as Maxi said, test often, in your example you are not contagious the moment you get infected (5 minutes after your last test).  There is a 'germination' period.  One that, as I understand it, our experts don't have a handle on yet either.

There are all sort of things we don't know yet R0 and Rt.  Rates of infection and rates of transmission.  One bug won't infect you.  How many bugs does it take to infect you?  Lot's of questions that we already know the answers to for other viruses. 

[Kzoo]

6 minutes ago, maddmaxx said:

Here we worry about a violation of your privacy more than a violation of your lungs.

Correct,  You're right to not get infected does not override my right to.... well let me look at the US Constitution. 

[Randomguy]

Hmm......

 

New York barber that defied stay-at-home order tests positive for coronavirus

BY ARIS FOLLEY - 05/14/20 04:05 PM EDT 336

 

Health officials in New York say a barber in Kingston who has been providing haircuts to customers for weeks in defiance of the state’s stay-at-home orders has since tested positive for COVID-19. 

Ulster County Department of Health Commissioner Carol Smith confirmed the news in an announcement on Thursday and urged those who may have received services at this barber's shop to get tested for the virus.

“We are taking extraordinary measures to try and minimize the spread of this dangerous disease and learning that a barbershop has been operating illicitly for weeks with a COVID-19 positive employee is extraordinarily disheartening,” Smith said in a statement.

“As much as we would all like to go out and get a professional haircut, this kind of direct contact has the potential to dramatically spread this virus throughout our community and beyond,” she continued. “I urge anyone who has received a haircut at a Kingston barber in the last several weeks to immediately contact their physician or call our hotline to arrange for a diagnostic test." 

[Allen ★]

My brother in law just folded one of his shops. The Depression has hit home.  My sister and he are in Athens, which is a college town. Athens has been hit hard economically. It’s been a ghost town with no students.  If the students don’t come back in the fall he is going to fold his other shop too. 

[Dottleshead ★]

8 hours ago, Kzoo said:

Correct,  You're right to not get infected does not override my right to.... well let me look at the US Constitution. 

You're right. I'm ok with youz guys going out but just STFU if you get it and there's no bed for you. In fact just STFU and do us all a favor and suffer or die at home. It's a fair trade off. Also it'd be helpful if you waived your medical rights because we can't afford you.

[Randomguy]

You sound edgy, Dottie, what is going on?

Ok, unpacking all this.  Nobody is guaranteed safety in the USandA. That said, reasonable expectations of non-negligent behavior are, well, expected.   The stupid barbershop guy in MI is clearly negligent and willfully putting society at greater risk in a couple of ways.  First, he put everyone he cuts hair for at greater risk of a catch and release on the virus, and then it emboldens the other ignorant to do the same.  A state of emergency says you don’t get to do what you want until the emergency is called off.  Your right to put others at undue risk is cancelled.  People not listening suck at being citizens in society, “I’m not afraid, fuck everybody else” really is not the best way to run a just society, although it is clear that justice is on a milk carton while current leadership is in power.   I digress  

It is fine conceptually if you want to run out and get the virus, but passing it on willy nilly is the actual consequence of that particular kind of stupidity.  You get it and you are willfully putting society at risk as well as your own family and coworkers.  

So nobody in Mi or WI can look at the article I posted about the infected barber in NY and see any parallels?  "It can happen in New York State, sure, but it just couldn't, just wouldn't happen in MI"  You guys keep dreaming, it is coming for a barbershop (or bar, or concert, or softball game, fireworks event) near you, sure as anything.

That said, everybody's ugly-ass hair is getting a bit ratty.

[Dottleshead ★]

9 minutes ago, Randomguy said:

You sound edgy, Dottie, what is going on?

Ok, unpacking all this.  Nobody is guaranteed safety in the USandA. That said, reasonable expectations of non-negligent behavior are, well, expected.   Stupid barbershop guy in MI is clearly negligent and willfully putting society at greater risk in a couple of ways.  First, he put everyone he cuts hair for at greater risk of a catch and release on the virus, and then it emboldens the other ignorant to do the same.  A state of emergency says you don’t get to do what you want until the emergency is called off.  Your right to whatever is cancelled.  People not obeying suck at being citizens in society, “I’m not afraid, fuck everybody else” really is not the best way to run a just society, although it is clear that justice is on a milk carton while current leadership is in power   I digress  

It is fine conceptually if you want to run out and get the virus, but passing it in willy nilly is the actual consequence of that particular kind of stupidity.  You get it and you are willfully putting society at risk as well as your own family and coworkers.  
 

Douchebag Billy Bob at the courthouse with weapons are truly horrible people, and are lucky they didn’t get anyone shot or infected.  
 

So nobody in Mi or WI can look at the posted article a few posts up and see any parallels? 

Oh, it's just a ribbing on @Kzoo.  I mean nothing by it and he's not very easily troll-able.  I agree with most of what he says though.  I think ultimately this is going to come down to choice about whether you want to go out or not.  The only thing that bothers me is the upper crust isn't going to put themselves at risk.  It's going to be the folks that are hurting financially and need to risk it. Or morons.  It's unavoidable though. 

[Randomguy]

1 hour ago, Dottles said:

he's not very easily troll-able.

I don't know, everything he has claimed about his governor is EXACTLY what is true about the president, but with the exception that she is actually following the law and is not a scummy swamp-dweller.  MI people are whining and crying about maybe 1% of the hassle and dumbassery of the administration and enablers, and it is kind of funny to see how distorted their sense of rage and ego is about getting a tiny portion of it back at them.   No patience until a plan is put in place, that balances protections for citizens and the economy, just "me, me, me, now, now, now".

I would be lying if I said I wasn't enjoying the ironic squirm a little, even though I agree how she is going about things would rub you a bit raw.  Like I said, everybody's ugly-ass hair is getting a bit ratty.

[Dottleshead ★]

15 minutes ago, Randomguy said:

I don't know, everything he has claimed about his governor is EXACTLY what is true about the president, but with the exception that she is actually following the law and is not a scummy swamp-dweller.  MI people are whining and crying about maybe 1% of the hassle and dumbassery of the administration and enablers, and it is kind of funny to see how distorted their sense of rage and ego is about getting a tiny portion of it back at them.   No patience until a plan is put in place, that balances protections for citizens and the economy, just "me, me, me, now, now, now".

I would be lying if I said I wasn't enjoying it a little, even though I agree how she is going about things would rub you a bit raw.  Like I said, everybody's ugly-ass hair is getting a bit ratty.

Oh I'm just talking about the Constitutional Rights. You know my stance but I do think in time it's going to be legally tough to keep those down that want to chance it. But you are exactly correct about the hypocrisy between the governor and the president he supports. That's laughable. But I do see a judicial challenge to all this and the argument he presents is strong. We have not heard the last of it.

[Randomguy]

16 minutes ago, Dottles said:

I do see a judicial challenge to all this and the argument he presents is strong.

I guess lawyers will flail away until it gets sorted.  If bad goes to worse, I guess different laws will be put in place, but that is sure to be much more restrictive if that eventually is the case.  I hope it all works out.  I do have my doubts about the middle of the country, though

[Dottleshead ★]

1 hour ago, Randomguy said:

I guess lawyers will flail away until it gets sorted.  If bad goes to worse, I guess different laws will be put in place, but that is sure to be much more restrictive.

Yeah. Something is going to happen. Mostly I stay out of it. I get to work from home and decide when I want to go out. I feel it would be pretty dumb to say you all should stay home and implode when their livelihood depends on working with the public. I also think it's dumb to say you all should get out there and perform your duty and risk it because it's not that bad. Honestly it's a difficult dilemma. I think they are going to have to try. I'm guessing it's going to be ebb and flow for awhile while we play cat and mouse with this virus. Meanwhile, people are gonna die by it while we try. I don't see anyway around that.

[Randomguy]

17 minutes ago, Dottles said:

Something is going to happen.

Well, if the virus loves an indoor crowd, but if people hang out mostly outside this summer and not get too crazy with gatherings, then maybe it will actually be ok and on a slow simmer until everybody crams back inside again in the fall.  If even half the people in the ignorant fox news states still distance and keep mostly away from the rabble, maybe it will be just small outbreaks.  Who knows?

[Dottleshead ★]

I hope.

[maddmaxx ★]

Closing in on 1 1/2 million infected and 90,000 deaths.  We're number one.

[Wilbur ★]

3 minutes ago, maddmaxx said:

Closing in on 1 1/2 million infected and 90,000 deaths.  We're number one.

Maybe not for long.  China is into second wave lockdowns and people collapsing in the street again.  Some military hospitals are now closed to the public and Wuhan officials have ordered the testing of everyone.  They are conducting those tests in the open street and medical crews aren't changing gloves between patients.  

[maddmaxx ★]

https://www.dickssportinggoods.com/p/minn-kota-endura-max-freshwater-transom-mount-trolling-motors-15mkoundrmx45lb36fel/15mkoundrmx45lb36fel?recid=product_PageElement_pdplanding_rr_1_24766_&rrec=true

[Bikeguy]

IMO…  we just have to go with the facts we ‘know’ for sure about this pandemic.

There is no vaccine. It will take many months (if it is even possible) to develop a vaccine. https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-covid-19-vaccine-timeline.html

We rushed to develop quick testing for the virus and the test is apparently not very accurate. https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/05/14/856531970/fda-cautions-about-accuracy-of-widely-used-abbott-coronavirus-test

Even if we could develop a ‘good’ test, and we just test everyone in the US just once, that would be 328 million tests.   Testing often (let alone once) for 328 million people, that will never happen.  It would take many months (or more), just to manufacture the test kits.  Then how do you get EVERYONE to agree to even get tested.  OMG… how long would the lines be for the testing.  

Contact tracing… good luck with that…  We don't have the skills or manpower or technology to do a good job tracing contacts between people.

Remember… ‘flattening the curve’ doesn’t mean everyone won’t get the virus.  It just means we hopefully won’t get it at the same time and overwhelm the medical system.

We have worked to flatten the curve.  The problem with that is, most people can’t afford not to work.

Our stay at home and essential work only plan has helped to flatten the curve.  BUT, the plan has created start of the next great depression.  And people don’t like this at all. 

Bottom line… without out a vaccine we are doomed to find out when (or IF) herd immunity will end the pandemic.

OK tell me why I’m wrong…

[maddmaxx ★]

Flattening the curve also delays infection for more people who may get a vaccine or better medications in the hospital when they finally do catch it.

Face it, unless the virus goes away completely all of us in the high risk groups will eventually get it and many of us will die.  This is conveniently ignored when rushing off to bars and nail salons.

Cautious and metered reopening is the only path that attempts to balance the needs of all.

Now the political part.  If the government would come across with rent assistance and unemployment pay for laid off workers instead of "stimulus money" to be spent in places still operating we would probably be well ahead of this mess.

[Randomguy]

1 hour ago, Bikeguy said:

IMO…  we just have to go with the facts we ‘know’ for sure about this pandemic.

There is no vaccine. It will take many months (if it is even possible) to develop a vaccine. https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-covid-19-vaccine-timeline.html

We rushed to develop quick testing for the virus and the test is apparently not very accurate. https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/05/14/856531970/fda-cautions-about-accuracy-of-widely-used-abbott-coronavirus-test

Even if we could develop a ‘good’ test, and we just test everyone in the US just once, that would be 328 million tests.   Testing often (let alone once) for 328 million people, that will never happen.  It would take many months (or more), just to manufacture the test kits.  Then how do you get EVERYONE to agree to even get tested.  OMG… how long would the lines be for the testing.  

Contact tracing… good luck with that…  We don't have the skills or manpower or technology to do a good job tracing contacts between people.

Remember… ‘flattening the curve’ doesn’t mean everyone won’t get the virus.  It just means we hopefully won’t get it at the same time and overwhelm the medical system.

We have worked to flatten the curve.  The problem with that is, most people can’t afford not to work.

Our stay at home and essential work only plan has helped to flatten the curve.  BUT, the plan has created start of the next great depression.  And people don’t like this at all. 

Bottom line… without out a vaccine we are doomed to find out when (or IF) herd immunity will end the pandemic.

OK tell me why I’m wrong…

WRONG!  I love writing that, btw, and while you are correct in many items you wrote, there is room to expand and expound and bloviate.

Points I agree on would be that testing on as massive scale as would be necessary is logistically impossible as currently configured.  I agree that the vaccine is probably 3 years out (if ever).  I would say that the failure to ID and standardize and procure a rapid test that works with all the necessary ingredients is the federal government's failure (just one in almost every area as it relates to the virus).  I mean hell, do they even have a plan now?  It has been a couple months at least of wide agreement even from the idiot himself that it is a pandemic, yet there still is a head in the sand approach that will drag this out further.  

Contact tracing needs to get up and running.  Lots of unemployed, lots of need for tracing, see any way one can solve the other, at least partially?  People are goddamned idiots for not seeing that this would get people working, get those same people off unemployment.  Letting as many people as possible know they have been consorting with lepers would even get some of the ignorant fuckers to self-quarantine until they get tested.

Don't test everyone, you can't force that.  Test people that want to be tested or have symptoms or have run in the same circles as that dumbass barber in NY that got himself positive and probably gave it to a few folks at the very least.  Contact tracers could let people know they are at risk.  "Hey jerkoff, don't go to work and go get tested" is way better than just throwing your hands in the air and doing jack shit..   If/when a vaccine is produced, these people would be made obsolete, but they aren't working now so at least they can forestall uselessness and help the economy in the meantime.

[Dottleshead ★]

3 hours ago, Bikeguy said:

IMO…  we just have to go with the facts we ‘know’ for sure about this pandemic.

There is no vaccine. It will take many months (if it is even possible) to develop a vaccine. https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-covid-19-vaccine-timeline.html

We rushed to develop quick testing for the virus and the test is apparently not very accurate. https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/05/14/856531970/fda-cautions-about-accuracy-of-widely-used-abbott-coronavirus-test

Even if we could develop a ‘good’ test, and we just test everyone in the US just once, that would be 328 million tests.   Testing often (let alone once) for 328 million people, that will never happen.  It would take many months (or more), just to manufacture the test kits.  Then how do you get EVERYONE to agree to even get tested.  OMG… how long would the lines be for the testing.  

Contact tracing… good luck with that…  We don't have the skills or manpower or technology to do a good job tracing contacts between people.

Remember… ‘flattening the curve’ doesn’t mean everyone won’t get the virus.  It just means we hopefully won’t get it at the same time and overwhelm the medical system.

We have worked to flatten the curve.  The problem with that is, most people can’t afford not to work.

Our stay at home and essential work only plan has helped to flatten the curve.  BUT, the plan has created start of the next great depression.  And people don’t like this at all. 

Bottom line… without out a vaccine we are doomed to find out when (or IF) herd immunity will end the pandemic.

OK tell me why I’m wrong…

You're not.

[Mr. Silly]

2 hours ago, Randomguy said:

I mean hell, do they even have a plan now? 

Yes.  The plan is to hope the virus goes away on its own.  That is why he is talking about a conspiracy theory instead of the virus.  

[Bikeguy]

So is this bad testing?  Or are we all domed to live this new life forever?  

https://time.com/5837531/sailors-coronavirus-second-time/

I would hope (not sure after this) that once you get the virus and live, you would be DONE with this.  So much for herd immunity  if this is true. 

[maddmaxx ★]

23 minutes ago, Bikeguy said:

So is this bad testing?  Or are we all domed to live this new life forever?  

https://time.com/5837531/sailors-coronavirus-second-time/

I would hope (not sure after this) that once you get the virus and live, you would be DONE with this.  So much for herd immunity  if this is true. 

Yep, another hope (wish for) that may not be true but has been touted on the interwebs as the cure.

Some of us may indeed be trapped in Jumanji forever.

[Dottleshead ★]

1 minute ago, maddmaxx said:

Yep, another hope (wish for) that may not be true but has been touted on the interwebs as the cure.

Some of us may indeed be trapped in Jumanji forever.

The good news is you live on a farm in the woods.  I could think of worse places being home bound.

[maddmaxx ★]

10 minutes ago, Dottles said:

The good news is you live on a farm in the woods.  I could think of worse places being home bound.

Indeed.  I do find myself watching more movies about crazed killers rending human bodies however.  They seem soothing.

[Dottleshead ★]

1 minute ago, maddmaxx said:

Indeed.  I do find myself watching more movies about crazed killers rending human bodies however.

Lots of potential grave sites.

[Allen ★]

The ballpark next door opened back up today to packed crowds. 
The stands were full, no masks. So was the walking path. 

[Dottleshead ★]

4 minutes ago, Allen said:

The ballpark next door opened back up today to packed crowds. 
The stands were full, no masks. So was the walking path. 

I hope they were treated to a large hot dog and soda.

[Allen ★]

4 minutes ago, Dottles said:

I hope they were treated to a large hot dog and soda.

I’m sure they were. 

[Square Wheels]

Who's playing ball now?

[Dottleshead ★]

3 minutes ago, Square Wheels said:

Who's playing ball now?

The folks in the stands.