COVID-19 Updates

[donkpow]

36 minutes ago, Goat Geddah said:

What do you mean by this?  I ask because I have a N-95 mask that I use when a mask is called for.

I mean that the CDC recommended the population is better served by wearing rags on their faces than to use N95 rated masks. That type of protection is to be reserved for health care workers and first responders.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prevent-getting-sick/cloth-face-cover.html

[jsharr ★]

Any data analysts among us?  Would like to know if what this guy is saying is true?  Are we as a country really this inept with data analysis?

https://medium.com/analyticaper/covid-19-what-the-data-tells-us-3a08e42ee36f

[Razors Edge ★]

7 minutes ago, donkpow said:

I mean that the CDC recommended the population is better served by wearing rags on their faces than to use N95 rated masks. That type of protection is to be reserved for health care workers and first responders.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prevent-getting-sick/cloth-face-cover.html

So, you disagree with the guidance and believe risking continued and/or abrupt shortages of N-95s for healthcare folks is reasonable????  I don't get it.  IF N-95s were is massive oversupply, THEN the CDC advice would likely be wrong.  BUT, you go to battle with the army you have, not the one you want and you make do

The cloth face coverings recommended are not surgical masks or N-95 respirators.  Those are critical supplies that must continue to be reserved for healthcare workers and other medical first responders, as recommended by current CDC guidance.

[Razors Edge ★]

3 minutes ago, jsharr said:

Any data analysts among us?  Would like to know if what this guy is saying is true?  Are we as a country really this inept with data analysis?

https://medium.com/analyticaper/covid-19-what-the-data-tells-us-3a08e42ee36f

Lies, damn lies, and statistics!

And, yes, 83.71% of Americans are inept with data analysis.

[Allen ★]

Walton County

Cases –352 – That six more cases in the past 24 hours
Cases per 100,000 –361.1
Total deaths – 26 – that’s one more death reported in the past 24 hours
Hospitalized – 55 – that’s no more hospitalization in the past 24 hours
There were two deaths reported in the nursing home

 

Gwinnett County

Cases – 6,636 – that’s 129 new cases reported in the past 24 hours
Cases per 100,000 – 683.3
Total deaths – 163 – that’s one more death reported in the past 24 hours
Hospitalized – 886 – That is 24 more hospitalizations reported in the last 24 hours

 

Georgia

Confirmed cases – 67,675 – that is 1,747 more cases reported in the past 24 hours
ICU admissions – 2,173   – that’s 18 more reported in the past 24 hours
Hospitalizations – 10,121– That’s 168 more hospitalizations reported in the past 24 hours
Total deaths – 2,687 – That is 39 more deaths reported in the past 24 hours.

[Further]

So, about seasonality......

[Kzoo]

23 minutes ago, donkpow said:

I mean that the CDC recommended the population is better served by wearing rags on their faces than to use N95 rated masks. That type of protection is to be reserved for health care workers and first responders.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prevent-getting-sick/cloth-face-cover.html

That is an old recommendation and the only reason it was made was because N95s were in short supply and needed for health care workers (at that time).  The recommendation was not to wear them for health reasons.

 

[sheep_herder ★]

4 minutes ago, Further said:

So, about seasonality......

One had to call bull sheot on this, when it was spreading in other parts of the world that were already warm. Just my opinion, and I could be wrong.

[Kzoo]

18 minutes ago, jsharr said:

Any data analysts among us?  Would like to know if what this guy is saying is true?  Are we as a country really this inept with data analysis?

https://medium.com/analyticaper/covid-19-what-the-data-tells-us-3a08e42ee36f

maybe, maybe and yes.

I saw a map this morning on CNN that shows increases by state.  It was in no way accurate as compared to actual state reported data.  Garbage from national media.

I like what the guy is saying in the link you provided.  It only makes sense that reported cases (all the data that has been reported) is not the same as accurate infection day rates.  That can't be determined by a test.  I do question his assertion that the actual infection rate is 10 times higher than cases reported.  There is no way to make that guess and antibody tests have continued to be proven highly inaccurate to date.

 

[Razors Edge ★]

8 minutes ago, Kzoo said:

That is an old recommendation and the only reason it was made was because N95s were in short supply and needed for health care workers (at that time).  The recommendation was not to wear them for health reasons.

 

I'm not sure why the page with the recommendations has not been reviewed in a month, but I don't have any real confidence the shortages of important PPE has been ended.

[maddmaxx ★]

21 minutes ago, jsharr said:

Any data analysts among us?  Would like to know if what this guy is saying is true?  Are we as a country really this inept with data analysis?

https://medium.com/analyticaper/covid-19-what-the-data-tells-us-3a08e42ee36f

There are so many different versions of covid data that I now take everything with a grain of salt.

Having said that, there's a reason that health care professionals are worrying about ICU beds being swamped due to increases in Covid-19 cases severe enough to need them.  An honest observer should wonder why that is.

There is no unified data base for covid-19 cases because there are so many different reasons for spinning data to present something that wouldn't be presented if the data were defined the same way everywhere,  up to date and accurate.

Americans are currently not allowed to enter China, quarantine be damned and it looks like the EU is going to follow that plan as well although they are good with letting Chinese citizens in.  That's another thing to wonder about.

Or, we can just stick our heads in the sand and continue onward.  123K deaths as of today, 766 more than yesterday and still counting.

[Razors Edge ★]

9 minutes ago, Kzoo said:

I saw a map this morning on CNN that shows increases by state.  It was in no way accurate as compared to actual state reported data.  Garbage from national media.

This one?:

[jsharr ★]

2 minutes ago, maddmaxx said:

There are so many different versions of covid data that I now take everything with a grain of salt.

Having said that, there's a reason that health care professionals are worrying about ICU beds being swamped due to increases in Covid-19 cases severe enough to need them.  An honest observer should wonder why that is.

There is no unified data base for covid-19 cases because there are so many different reasons for spinning data to present something that wouldn't be presented if the data were defined the same way everywhere,  up to date and accurate.

Americans are currently not allowed to enter China, quarantine be damned and it looks like the EU is going to follow that plan as well although they are good with letting Chinese citizens in.  That's another thing to wonder about.

Or, we can just stick our heads in the sand and continue onward.  123K deaths as of today, 766 more than yesterday and still counting.

Yeah, but only sheeple wear masks and I want to go eat a steak and see a movie.  

I cannot believe how crazy stupid our country has become with the ability to politicize anything and to jump to crazy conclusions based on ideology.  

[donkpow]

I was referring to the original guidance provided by the CDC. As far as I am concerned, you should be protecting yourself with the best you can muster. That particular guidance undermines the health of those that understand what to do. As far as shortages for the necessary services, you are an idiot if you think the supply chain for that couldn't be maintained or strengthened on a moment's notice.

[maddmaxx ★]

26 minutes ago, Further said:

So, about seasonality......

Put to bed.

[maddmaxx ★]

19 minutes ago, Kzoo said:

maybe, maybe and yes.

I saw a map this morning on CNN that shows increases by state.  It was in no way accurate as compared to actual state reported data.  Garbage from national media.

I like what the guy is saying in the link you provided.  It only makes sense that reported cases (all the data that has been reported) is not the same as accurate infection day rates.  That can't be determined by a test.  I do question his assertion that the actual infection rate is 10 times higher than cases reported.  There is no way to make that guess and antibody tests have continued to be proven highly inaccurate to date.

 

Are states reporting accurate data.  Is it a good idea to declare a covid patient who dies of a heart attack in the covid icu to be a heart attack patient rather than a covid patient?  Is it a good idea to not count a covid death for a person with covid because there was no official paperwork declaring them to have covid when they died at home of "pneumonia" of an unknown cause.

Yes, there are states doing this.  Georgia for example even has a disclaimer attached to their official government data page explaining why their numbers may be different.

Today you can pick a chose your numbers from wherever you get the one's you like.

[Razors Edge ★]

7 minutes ago, donkpow said:

As far as shortages for the necessary services, you are an idiot if you think the supply chain for that couldn't be maintained or strengthened on a moment's notice.

So it's INTENTIONAL?  Now you're getting into conspiracy stuff, so its not mask being worn but tinfoil hats!

[donkpow]

1 minute ago, Razors Edge said:

So it's INTENTIONAL?  Now you're getting into conspiracy stuff, so its not mask being worn but tinfoil hats!

"Intentional"? Only if you consider actions of the incompetent intentional. 

[Razors Edge ★]

1 minute ago, donkpow said:

"Intentional"? Only if you consider actions of the incompetent intentional. 

But that's the army we have.  Not properly prepared, not properly equipped, so the civilians had to suck it up and use workarounds while the essentials went to the front.  If manufacturing is all caught up and the folks at the front have plentiful supplies, then, yes, the civilians should be good to go using the good stuff again!

[maddmaxx ★]

3 minutes ago, Razors Edge said:

But that's the army we have.  Not properly prepared, not properly equipped, so the civilians had to suck it up and use workarounds while the essentials went to the front.  If manufacturing is all caught up and the folks at the front have plentiful supplies, then, yes, the civilians should be good to go using the good stuff again!

Spitting into the wind.  At the moment the problem is not what sort of mask the public is wearing.  In many places they aren't wearing any at all.

[Prophet Zacharia]

1 hour ago, donkpow said:

I mean that the CDC recommended the population is better served by wearing rags on their faces than to use N95 rated masks. That type of protection is to be reserved for health care workers and first responders.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prevent-getting-sick/cloth-face-cover.html

To address @Goat Geddah’s question, yes, wear the N95 mask you have, it’s the best available option. While the CDC wishes to preserve the supply of these for medical professionals, it’s unlikely that any currently in a Home Depot are going to get reallocated to a hospital, so if you see them, buy them and use them. If you already have them, use them. But more importantly, if you don’t have them, use a cloth mask. Everything is better than nothing.

[Razors Edge ★]

For whatever reason, I still can't seem to get a COVID test for me or my wife.  This isn't January.  Or March. Or even May.  This is the last days of June and into the SUMMER.  What's up with that?  Is that a reasonable or unreasonable thing for me to expect by this time - that I can get a COVID test to see if I am safe to go spend time with other folks or not? 

[maddmaxx ★]

1 minute ago, Razors Edge said:

For whatever reason, I still can't seem to get a COVID test for me or my wife.  This isn't January.  Or March. Or even May.  This is the last days of June and into the SUMMER.  What's up with that?  Is that a reasonable or unreasonable thing for me to expect by this time - that I can get a COVID test to see if I am safe to go spend time with other folks or not? 

Simple.  There are still not enough to go around in all states.  In CT you still need to have symptoms or be part of a contact tracing chain.  I'm afraid that I can't believe in "if you want a test you can have a test" other than a wild eyed claim.

[maddmaxx ★]

As of today, New York, New Jersey and CT will be requiring a quarantine of 14 days before the residents of certain states (or anyone coming from those states) can travel freely within our states.

There are several states on that list including Florida, Arizona and others.

[Razors Edge ★]

5 minutes ago, maddmaxx said:

Simple.  There are still not enough to go around in all states.  In CT you still need to have symptoms or be part of a contact tracing chain.  I'm afraid that I can't believe in "if you want a test you can have a test" other than a wild eyed claim.

I WANT A TEST!  I don't "need" a test   It's a nuance that, 3 1/2 months later, is still the same

But, wow, folks should see how simplistic this was back in early March.

 

[Prophet Zacharia]

5 minutes ago, maddmaxx said:

As of today, New York, New Jersey and CT will be requiring a quarantine of 14 days before the residents of certain states (or anyone coming from those states) can travel freely within our states.

There are several states on that list including Florida, Arizona and others.

Simple work around. Fly to Philly, rent a car and drive.

[Prophet Zacharia]

6 minutes ago, Razors Edge said:

I WANT A TEST!

Do we know yet what protection antibodies provide against reinfection? I thought there were reinfection concerns in China after their wave 1? Would a positive antibody test provide you false bravado?

[maddmaxx ★]

7 minutes ago, Prophet Zacharia said:

Simple work around. Fly to Philly, rent a car and drive.

I'm sure that if that happens a lot, that for those who get caught, some sort of penalty will be established.  It would be a rather stupid act and worthy of one.

[maddmaxx ★]

5 minutes ago, Prophet Zacharia said:

Do we know yet what protection antibodies provide against reinfection? I thought there were reinfection concerns in China after their wave 1? Would a positive antibody test provide you false bravado?

Maybe.

Maybe not

Yes

No

 

[Prophet Zacharia]

Just now, maddmaxx said:

Yes

I’m going to go with “yes”, anyone getting an antibody test to run around with impunity is taking on a fool’s errand. Now, if they feel that they can now safely return to an ER or ICU setting to care for patients using PPE, then God bless them.
 

[Razors Edge ★]

17 minutes ago, Prophet Zacharia said:

Do we know yet what protection antibodies provide against reinfection? I thought there were reinfection concerns in China after their wave 1? Would a positive antibody test provide you false bravado?

I was thinking of a "you do or don't have COVID now" testing, not the "you have had COVID and now have antibodies" type of test.  Actually, I would like to know both things - do I actively have COVID and have I had COVID. 

And yes, I do think knowing those answers would have an impact on my actions - especially if all folks in my potential group had the same sort of knowledge.

[donkpow]

There is an event in our area that will provide a limited number of tests for free. First come, first served. The event is put on by a clinic that serves those people who cannot afford basic health care. 

[Prophet Zacharia]

2 minutes ago, Razors Edge said:

And yes, I do think knowing those answers would have an impact on my actions - especially if all folks in my potential group had the same sort of knowledge.

It’s really “did I have Covid yesterday when I took that test”. I would use that information in a very narrowly defined manner... if at all.

[Razors Edge ★]

2 minutes ago, Prophet Zacharia said:

It’s really “did I have Covid yesterday when I took that test”. I would use that information in a very narrowly defined manner... if at all.

Are you not socially distancing???? If I didn't have it YESTERDAY, I surely - 99.999999% - don't have it TODAY unless it is now spreading in dustclouds that sweep into my home at night.  I'll take my chances on the 0.000001% chance I contracted it DURING the test or the walk back to my car and the return to my house.

[Kzoo]

1 hour ago, Razors Edge said:

This one?:

Yes.  Some of those percentages are not supported by data reported by the states themselves.

 

[maddmaxx ★]

2 minutes ago, Kzoo said:

Yes.  Some of those percentages are not supported by data reported by the states themselves.

 

No one should be surprised by that.  There's not even a solid definition of what constitutes a death by covid.

[Razors Edge ★]

11 minutes ago, Kzoo said:

Yes.  Some of those percentages are not supported by data reported by the states themselves.

 

Like Maxx writes, real numbers are tough to find, but I bet there is supporting data, but poking holes in that info is likely easy too.  A proper map/graphic would have a "*source: CDC week ending 6/22/2020 new cases report" sort of tag to readily identify where the info came from and then that source could be looked at directly.

[ChrisL]

I haven’t been closely following this thread lately so not sure if this came up recently but is anyone here surprised the mass demonstrations what, 2-3 weeks ago are now being followed by surges in Covid cases?

I know relaxing restrictions also helped but thousands of people jammed into tight spaces daily for weeks couldn’t have helped things...

 

[Prophet Zacharia]

20 minutes ago, Razors Edge said:

Are you not socially distancing???? If I didn't have it YESTERDAY, I surely - 99.999999% - don't have it TODAY unless it is now spreading in dustclouds that sweep into my home at night.  I'll take my chances on the 0.000001% chance I contracted it DURING the test or the walk back to my car and the return to my house.

But you were going to do that, anyway. I just won’t alter my behavior based on the knowledge I didn’t have Covid yesterday. 

[Razors Edge ★]

8 minutes ago, Prophet Zacharia said:

But you were going to do that, anyway. I just won’t alter my behavior based on the knowledge I didn’t have Covid yesterday. 

????

I'm housebound for three months so far.  I have no idea if I have or have had COVID.  Likewise, people we are avoiding (family) are in the same boat.  Is your recommendation to not worry about having it or not and just play it by ear?  Or are you pushing for perpetual isolation with it never being possible to know (or care) if you are an active COVID carrier?  Considering a vaccine would never be 100% either, this seems like we're in a bad place.

[Prophet Zacharia]

18 minutes ago, Razors Edge said:

I'm housebound for three months so far.

You’re negative.

 

18 minutes ago, Razors Edge said:

just play it by ear? 

What do you want to do that you aren’t because you haven’t had a test? 

[Razors Edge ★]

5 minutes ago, Prophet Zacharia said:

What do you want to do that you aren’t because you haven’t had a test? 

Mix and mingle with other non-household members who have socially distanced to varying degrees over the past several months.  Being able to draw a line in the sand - as of this day all of us were negative.  By isolating prior to and after that test but in the larger group, the group will be comfortable mixing and mingling at very low risk.

Maybe that's not how it works?

[Dottleshead ★]

The more time I spend with Jackson, WY, the more impressed I am with the seriousness folks are taking covid-19. I give them 5 stars and their visitors 4. @dennis is telling us the truth. 

[Prophet Zacharia]

50 minutes ago, Razors Edge said:

Maybe that's not how it works?

I would say universal precautions at all times. Six feet away when masks are off. That’s the most I’ll mingle with known people. 

[Dottleshead ★]

15 minutes ago, Prophet Zacharia said:

I would say universal precautions at all times. Six feet away when masks are off. That’s the most I’ll mingle with known people. 

That's my story. Kid on the boardwalk sneezed as I was passing him yesterday. I had my mask on and held my breath. 

[maddmaxx ★]

18 minutes ago, Dottles said:

That's my story. Kid on the boardwalk sneezed as I was passing him yesterday. I had my mask on and held my breath. 

He was the one in need of a mask.  Most claims now are that the mask for normal folks is just to keep droplets in.

When you get to the ER then that's a different system entirely.  Doctors and nurses are wearing professional masks (if available), face shields and other ppe to keep droplets out.  Their danger level is completely different from ours.

[Dottleshead ★]

15 minutes ago, maddmaxx said:

He was the one in need of a mask.  Most claims now are that the mask for normal folks is just to keep droplets in.

When you get to the ER then that's a different system entirely.  Doctors and nurses are wearing professional masks (if available), face shields and other ppe to keep droplets out.  Their danger level is completely different from ours.

I know. But not much I could do but hold my breath. All I can do now is hope that was enough, hope the 4 year old was negative, hope I didn't receive the transmission, or hope I already have or have had the mild form. And if it was transmitted then I hope I get the milder form. At this point, it's water under the bridge and I can't worry about it. The odds I believe are still in my favor. 

[maddmaxx ★]

15 minutes ago, Dottles said:

I know. But not much I could do but hold my breath. All I can do now is hope that was enough, hope the 4 year old was negative, hope I didn't receive the transmission, or hope I already have or have had the mild form. And if it was transmitted then I hope I get the milder form. At this point, it's water under the bridge and I can't worry about it. The odds I believe are still in my favor. 

Many people are immortal.

[Dottleshead ★]

52 minutes ago, maddmaxx said:

Many people are immortal.

I feel confident I am just the opposite. I hope I did not sound like I was. I have been damn careful. I was not happy that kid was out there and it happened. In fact, it was the only time during my trip I think I have been at risk. 

[Dottleshead ★]

There are not a lot of places to go on a board walk over a steaming hot spring.