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36 minutes ago, Razors Edge said:

I'd love to hear from someone like @Prophet Zacharia if 70 "critical care" beds is a normal amount for a county of 95,000 people.  That seems pretty darn few, but my county is over 10x that size, so hard to compare.

Seems still having 10% capacity (of normal) during the height of the outbreak isn't awful (yet), so maybe you guys won't hit or exceed the 70 beds.

Texas hospitals are quickly learning that capacity is only good so long as the smaller hospitals in the state don't start clamoring to send their excess patients to the big city hospitals.  You can't just plan for yourself in an emergency.

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1 hour ago, Razors Edge said:

I'd love to hear from someone like @Prophet Zacharia if 70 "critical care" beds is a normal amount for a county of 95,000 people.  That seems pretty darn few, but my county is over 10x that size, so hard to compare.

Seems still having 10% capacity (of normal) during the height of the outbreak isn't awful (yet), so maybe you guys won't hit or exceed the 70 beds.

That’s 70 ICU beds for 11 counties I think. Walton only has one hospital with 77 beds total. 

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On 6/29/2020 at 4:31 PM, Razors Edge said:

About a month later, 2,600 more cases and 92 more deaths.  Despite being significant, it seems like a slightly downward trend from April and May.

image.png.cdfc33bacbfe730200fede208632291c.png

Two weeks later and "only" 21 new deaths which seems to be an improvement over my last check-in. 

image.png.5a373cd06b828c7e79b51d03bfd42645.png

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5 hours ago, Razors Edge said:

I'd love to hear from someone like @Prophet Zacharia if 70 "critical care" beds is a normal amount for a county of 95,000 people.  That seems pretty darn few, but my county is over 10x that size, so hard to compare.

Seems still having 10% capacity (of normal) during the height of the outbreak isn't awful (yet), so maybe you guys won't hit or exceed the 70 beds.

I read today the national average is about 35 critical care beds per 100,000 people, so as a baseline it’s ok, I guess. Now, Pittsburgh has about 1,100 critical care beds which works out to 92 beds/100,000 in our immediate region, although in a crisis they would send people from all over central PA here, so that number is relative. 

I’d say having only 7 open ICU beds IS a bad thing, and I’d look to see how far away one would have to travel to find a vacant ICU bed when those last few close. I suspect things will be tight all over.

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On 7/11/2020 at 9:32 PM, Allen said:

Not good.

BREAKING: An 11-county region of Northeast Georgia including Walton is down to seven critical care beds out of a capacity of 70. Georgia saw 599 people hospitalized from COVID-19 in the past day.

--

The number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Walton County was 538 on Saturday afternoon, July 11 (+11 from Friday). There had been 29 deaths (+1) and 70 hospitalizations (+2).

The Walton Tribune posted the above on Facebook. I can’t find their source. There was no follow up article in the paper.  
North East Georgia is pretty rural. I’m 50-60 miles from Atlanta. The northern counties are easily a hundred miles away. 

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21 minutes ago, Prophet Zacharia said:

I read today the national average is about 35 critical care beds per 100,000 people, so as a baseline it’s ok, I guess. Now, Pittsburgh has about 1,100 critical care beds which works out to 92 beds/100,000 in our immediate region, although in a crisis they would send people from all over central PA here, so that number is relative. 

I’d say having only 7 open ICU beds IS a bad thing, and I’d look to see how far away one would have to travel to find a vacant ICU bed when those last few close. I suspect things will be tight all over.

Here's a handy map that show the total number and unoccupied hospital beds per capita broken down by county.   Lighter the color the fewer beds per 1000 residence.  

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Walton County’s 29 deaths reported to date include 15 males and 14 females. All but one of the victims was over 60 and six of them were over 90. One woman and three men were African American and the other 25 were caucasian.

Walton County

Cases – 569 – That’s 26 more cases reported in the past 24 hours
Cases per 100,000 –593.9
Total deaths – 29 – that’s no more deaths reported in the past 24 hours
Hospitalized – 70 – that’s no more hospitalizations reported in the past 24 hours
 

Gwinnett County

Cases – 11,691 – that’s 387 new cases reported in the past 24 hours
Cases per 100,000 – 1,204
Total deaths – 185 – that’s two more death reported in the past 24 hours
Hospitalized – 1,351 – That is 36 more hospitalizations reported in the last 24 hours

Georgia

Confirmed cases – 120,569 – that is 3,026 more cases reported in the past 24 hours
ICU admissions – 2,643 – that’s 22 more reported in the past 24 hours Hospitalizations – 13,476 – That’s 217 more hospitalizations reported in the past 24 hours
Total deaths –3,026 – That is 25 more death reported in the past 24 hours

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49 minutes ago, Allen said:

My sister’s friend has improved. My sister is still asymptomatic

Did your sister test positive?  

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I read an article that suggested that part of the reason for Arizona’s spike in cases is that so many people are inside in air conditioning. Makes sense, who would be outside in 120 degrees?

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9 minutes ago, Kzoo said:

Did your sister test positive?  

She never got tested. I admonished her for that but can’t force her to go. 
Wednesday will be two weeks from her exposure. She and her friend spent the day together. Five days later her friend got sick.
 

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1 minute ago, Allen said:

She never got tested. I admonished her for that but can’t force her to go. 
Wednesday will be two weeks from her exposure. She and her friend spent the day together. Five days later her friend got sick.
 

So a good chance she is not asymptomatic but negative?

 

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6 minutes ago, Kzoo said:

So a good chance she is not asymptomatic but negative?

 

That’s the hope. She dodged the bullet. 

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1 hour ago, RalphWaldoMooseworth said:

I read an article that suggested that part of the reason for Arizona’s spike in cases is that so many people are inside in air conditioning. Makes sense, who would be outside in 120 degrees?

This is what the doctors are beginning to fear.  Indoor circulated air my be our undoing.

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7 minutes ago, maddmaxx said:

This is what the doctors are beginning to fear.  Indoor circulated air my be our undoing.

It's a good point. Closed systems seem to spell trouble. It's the same reason I won't fly.

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9 minutes ago, maddmaxx said:

This is what the doctors are beginning to fear.  Indoor circulated air my be our undoing.

At work they are somehow managing 0 recycle. That gives the system a workout!

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On 7/13/2020 at 12:32 PM, Razors Edge said:

Two weeks later and "only" 21 new deaths which seems to be an improvement over my last check-in. 

image.png.5a373cd06b828c7e79b51d03bfd42645.png

HOLY SCHNIZZLE!!!!

VA has 14k cases over a SIX MONTH period.  Florida just his 10k cases in ONE DAY!!!!!  and 300,000+ cases in total!  HOLY GRAB YOUR HATS!!!!

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1 hour ago, Razors Edge said:

HOLY SCHNIZZLE!!!!

VA has 14k cases over a SIX MONTH period.  Florida just his 10k cases in ONE DAY!!!!!  and 300,000+ cases in total!  HOLY GRAB YOUR HATS!!!!

And 35 deaths yesterday.  There ain't no hiding those numbers now.

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This tweet didn’t age well. Of course, one was retweeted by the #PINO.

 

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9 minutes ago, Prophet Zacharia said:

 

Yeah, I'd rather have the HHS guidance (or better, direct from the WH) for why we should be opening schools!

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55 minutes ago, Razors Edge said:

Yeah, I'd rather have the HHS guidance (or better, direct from the WH) for why we should be opening schools!

Since the WH is getting direct from the source data that bypasses the CDC, it seems best to get the freshest intel.

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4 hours ago, Prophet Zacharia said:

Since the WH is getting direct from the source data that bypasses the CDC, it seems best to get the freshest intel.

Trust that as far as I can throw it.

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@Allen, WTF is your governor doing?

Governor Brian Kemp is overruling local governments that have issued mandatory mask laws in a new executive over issued Wednesday.

“State, county, or municipal law, order, ordinance, rule, or regulation that requires persons to wear face coverings, masks, face shields, or any other Personal Protective Equipment while in places of public accommodation or on public property are suspended to the extent that they are more restrictive than this Executive Order.”

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On Monday, Arizona, South Carolina and Texas all hit record high average daily deaths, based on a seven-day average using data from Johns Hopkins.

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42 minutes ago, Mr. Grumpy said:

243837363_COVIDStats.thumb.png.a1bc55903ffb79b1cdc1b35d04fd901d.png

But should we count these folks since they were going to get sick and/or die at some point anyway?

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5 hours ago, Prophet Zacharia said:

@Allen, WTF is your governor doing?

Governor Brian Kemp is overruling local governments that have issued mandatory mask laws in a new executive over issued Wednesday.

“State, county, or municipal law, order, ordinance, rule, or regulation that requires persons to wear face coverings, masks, face shields, or any other Personal Protective Equipment while in places of public accommodation or on public property are suspended to the extent that they are more restrictive than this Executive Order.”

Pandering to his anti-intellectual base.  
Wearing masks is huge deal down here. It’s more accepted in the cities, but in rural areas it is seen as a purely political statement. I’ve been called out several times for wearing one. I wouldn’t be surprised if he overruled school districts on their use either.

He’s terrified of the next election. His approval ratings are dismal, somewhere in the high 30s last I looked. He admitted to my sister that he wished he waited four years before he ran. 

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3 hours ago, Allen said:

Pandering to his anti-intellectual base.  
Wearing masks is huge deal down here. It’s more accepted in the cities, but in rural areas it is seen as a purely political statement. I’ve been called out several times for wearing one. I wouldn’t be surprised if he overruled school districts on their use either.

He’s terrified of the next election. His approval ratings are dismal, somewhere in the high 30s last I looked. He admitted to my sister that he wished he waited four years before he ran. 

For your sake, I hope he gets bounced next time.

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23 hours ago, Razors Edge said:

And this sort of thing doesn't look good:

image.png.d14b794263191f850690bd6268a68225.png

A recent survey of Canadians were done within the last 3-4 wks.:  80% Canadians want to keep the Canada-U.S. border closed to travellers with non-essential reasons.  Of course, one can still fly into U.S.  and then returning back, 14 day quarantine.  One is tracked for the police to follow up, if needed.

Interview of Canadian long-haul truckers who have made several trips into the U.S. several times.  1 of them turned down some work to go into the U.S.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/truck-drivers-say-keep-border-closed-to-non-essential-travel-1.5648051

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3 US states are now the 5th worst country in the world for new virus cases.

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3 minutes ago, maddmaxx said:

3 US states are now the 5th worst country in the world for new virus cases.

#Winning

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6 minutes ago, maddmaxx said:

3 US states are now the 5th worst country in the world for new virus cases.

Are we at the point where we just throw up our hands and let it roll???  Honestly, folks seem fine with 130,000 deaths and millions of infections.  What makes us think a million deaths and a hundred million infections would be much different?

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10 minutes ago, Razors Edge said:

Are we at the point where we just throw up our hands and let it roll???  Honestly, folks seem fine with 130,000 deaths and millions of infections.  What makes us think a million deaths and a hundred million infections would be much different?

I've been saying this for awhile.  It's clearly  the current administration's plan.  It has been for awhile.

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8 minutes ago, Razors Edge said:

Are we at the point where we just throw up our hands and let it roll???  Honestly, folks seem fine with 130,000 deaths and millions of infections.  What makes us think a million deaths and a hundred million infections would be much different?

A million plus deaths will destroy the economy anyway.

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23 minutes ago, Razors Edge said:

What makes us think a million deaths and a hundred million infections would be much different?

I will be curious to see if we start seeing 5%, 7% or even 12+% death rates in places like Florida, Georgia and Texas as ICU’s become full, or if the combination of younger victims, a possible less virulent virus and better treatments keeps the death rates lower, despite the volume.

 

edit: I see Florida is now setting new state records for their deaths each day this week, today with 156 dead.

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15 minutes ago, Allen said:

https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/6990255-Governors-Report-14-July-20.html?fbclid=IwAR2zvGrHPZ9u41ZkSjO4ATIPy-SxtrzEoXZZtE2dg6-7XxBVvZSIBXuposw
 

Unpublished White House covid report obtained by The Washington Post
tl;dr wear your damned mask. 

If you want to get more depressed with just how stupid the anti-science crowd is in UT, read this: https://www.sltrib.com/news/education/2020/07/15/packed-meeting-utah/

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26 minutes ago, Allen said:

https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/6990255-Governors-Report-14-July-20.html?fbclid=IwAR2zvGrHPZ9u41ZkSjO4ATIPy-SxtrzEoXZZtE2dg6-7XxBVvZSIBXuposw
 

Unpublished White House covid report obtained by The Washington Post
tl;dr wear your damned mask. 

WTF!  They don;t even know how to alpahabetize!

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8 minutes ago, Allen said:

That  very voter base is why Brian Kemp over ruled the municipalities on mask mandates. 

Even the Texas governor has come to his senses after he was hit on the head with a 4 x 4.  Your governor has to be in contention for biggest idiot ever.

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12 minutes ago, RalphWaldoMooseworth said:

Even the Texas governor has come to his senses after he was hit on the head with a 4 x 4.  Your governor has to be in contention for biggest idiot ever.

His saying he wasn’t aware of asymptotic carriers until three months into this showed his concern of attention. 
Right now his feud with Atlanta’s mayor is giving him rural traction. That’s his current focus. 

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10 hours ago, Allen said:

His saying he wasn’t aware of asymptotic carriers until three months into this showed his concern of attention. 
Right now his feud with Atlanta’s mayor is giving him rural traction. That’s his current focus. 

It's always interesting to see fools talk out both sides of their mouth.  On one hand, it is "important" for local folks to make local decisions, until all of a sudden it is urgent that they not be allowed to make local decisions.  I'm usually fine with that idea where someone higher up steps in to make things BETTER, but it is vile to make things WORSE on purpose.

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Walton County

Cases – 602 – That’s 28 more cases reported in the past 24 hours
Cases per 100,000 –628.3
Total deaths – 31 – that’s a reduction of one death reported in the past 24 hours
Hospitalized – 73 – that’s two more hospitalizations reported in the past 24 hours
 

Gwinnett County

Cases – 12.489 – that’s 272 new cases reported in the past 24 hours
Cases per 100,000 – 1,286
Total deaths – 191 – that’s two more death reported in the past 24 hours
Hospitalized – 1,467 – That is 25 more hospitalizations reported in the last 24 hours

Georgia

Confirmed cases – 131,275 – that is 3,441 more cases reported in the past 24 hours
ICU admissions – 2,736 – that’s 34 more reported in the past 24 hours Hospitalizations – 14,346 – That’s 244 more hospitalizations reported in the past 24 hours
Total deaths –3,104 – That is 13 more death reported in the past 24 hours

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