Coronavirus vs. Economy

[Dottleshead ★]

I suppose this thread will be difficult for folks to lay off the politics but I really hope you can.  I want to know what people are thinking -- is the president's supposedly idea of 'opening up' the country as specified in the link below a good idea?  What do you think we should do?  On one hand, you and I know that if it's opened up -- that shit's gonna catch like wildfire.  We already lead the world in the number of cases but so far our deaths have been down.  But on the other hand, if we keep folks cooped up for another 1-2 months, that seems I recipe for another 2 trillion in aide.  Without it, the economy tanks.  I think it's nuts -- this thing is going to get a lot worse -- but I also recognize we all can't stay home forever or we'll shut down.  

What do you think we should do?  I think the president has a tough decision.  Folks gonna die going to work or folks gonna die financially. 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/26/coronavirus-trump-will-hear-options-this-weekend-on-plan-to-reopen-economy.html

[maddmaxx ★]

 

[Wilbur ★]

I don't think it will be a "back to business as usual" approach until there is a vaccine and the number of cases has stabilized.   It is a tough decision and I am sure it will be handled with plenty of thought and expertise.   I think there will be a massive anti-China move going forward. 

[maddmaxx ★]

1 hour ago, Dottles said:

I suppose this thread will be difficult for folks to lay off the politics but I really hope you can.  I want to know what people are thinking -- is the president's supposedly idea of 'opening up' the country as specified in the link below a good idea?  What do you think we should do?  On one hand, you and I know that if it's opened up -- that shit's gonna catch like wildfire.  We already lead the world in the number of cases but so far our deaths have been down.  But on the other hand, if we keep folks cooped up for another 1-2 months, that seems I recipe for another 2 trillion in aide.  Without it, the economy tanks.  I think it's nuts -- this thing is going to get a lot worse -- but I also recognize we all can't stay home forever or we'll shut down.  

What do you think we should do?  I think the president has a tough decision.  Folks gonna die going to work or folks gonna die financially. 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/26/coronavirus-trump-will-hear-options-this-weekend-on-plan-to-reopen-economy.html

Will go political very quickly.

[BR46]

15 minutes ago, maddmaxx said:

Will go political very quickly.

It's hard not to. 

Did you read what's all in the stimulus package 

[maddmaxx ★]

Can't touch this.

[Ralphie ★]

It is hard to see what the short term end game is.  We really can't venture back oot until it is safe.  South Korea might be the best place to look for guidance, since you can't believe China and Singapore is a total police state, as is China I guess.

[MickinMD ★]

I think it's too soon, though I'n no expert. I'm going by:

Health Experts:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-trump-to-restart-the-economy-in-april-is-being-derided-as-totally-nuts-190129407.html

Market Experts:

https://finance.yahoo.com/video/why-reopening-economy-too-early-213925457.html

Of course, the problem is that no one knows exactly when or if COVID-19 will die off in the Spring or Summer.  When the similar-coronavirus SARS-2002 epidemic hit, the last known infection occurred on July 5th.

There are some studies, based on South Korea's more extensive testing of people, that the death rate from coronavirus is no more than from the flu - it's just that only the more serious cases have been ID'd so it seems like a higher percentage is serious.

On the other hand, since we don't know and it could be much worse than the flu, erring on the side of caution is not a bad thing.

[Guest]

On the other hand, since we don't know and it could be much worse than the flu, erring on the side of caution is not a bad thing.

Someone said” we may never know if we did enough to combat this, but we will certainly know if we didn’t”.

all the financial resources in the world won’t matter much as you draw your last breath. 

[Randomguy]

In late 1917, they said "Don't worry, it is just the flu", didn't they?

[shootingstar]

2 hours ago, RalphWaldoMooseworth said:

It is hard to see what the short term end game is.  We really can't venture back oot until it is safe.  South Korea might be the best place to look for guidance, since you can't believe China and Singapore is a total police state, as is China I guess.

Taiwan is another good place to see how they have handled things.

[Dirtyhip]

I think we need to look at the new cases of infection by then.  If we are still soaring, opening up would be horrific for hospitals.  Our country has had a piss poor response to this.  They violated every rule in the pandemic playbook. It is my belief that if someone has a highly contagious infectious disease, you should quarantine them and track back everyone they had contact with and test them.  We were ill prepared.  I discussed this mask shortage with my husband and he said that you can't really stock up on these masks, because the elastic has a shelf life.  This took us by surprise.  It took everyone by surprise.  China didn't really share data, or we had our heads in the sand.  Likely, both happened.   

One thing I know, is that life has changed forever.  It is likely we will see new infectious diseases.  Population growth is enormous.  Something I learned when keeping chickens was that if you have enough space you will not have pecking and illness is decreased.  Likely, the same rules apply for people.  More population n close density = more disease.  Sad but true.  Look to Africa and infectious disease history. Don't think those more horrific diseases can't happen here.  Homeless population will rise, as people fall off the bottom of the ladder.  

I don't want to see or hear of people dying.  It's really saddening.  This could be natures way of cutting down the numbers.  Just hope that none of us are subject to our own untimely culling.    

 

[Dirtyhip]

9 minutes ago, Randomguy said:

In late 1917, they said "Don't worry, it is just the flu", didn't they?

Interesting article about that flu.  Sunshine was really beneficial to heal patients. 

Get out for some exercise, if you can.  Does the NYC lockdown prevent exercise outdoors?  Here, we can still do that, with enough distance.

[Randomguy]

14 minutes ago, Dirtyhip said:

Get out for some exercise, if you can.

I can't really walk about right now, I have foot issues.

[Dirtyhip]

2 minutes ago, Randomguy said:

I can't really walk about right now, I have foot issues.

Sorry to hear that.  Have you tried orthotics?  I went and got custom made ones and it has greatly helped the issues.   I still have pain if I do too much, but it is tolerable most of the time.  Personally, I think that car accident messed up my body a lot.

[Mr. Silly]

4 hours ago, Dottles said:

if we keep folks cooped up for another 1-2 months, that seems I recipe for another 2 trillion in aide.  Without it, the economy tanks.

The US GDP is $17.95T.  The $2.2T stimulus is 12 1/2% of the GDP or about a month an a half.  The economy is not 100% shut down, so I'll pull 50% shutdown out of my butt just so I have a number to work with.  So the stimulus should equate to about 3 months worth of GDP.  The economy should be fine for 2 months if businesses don't use their bailout money for stock buybacks and executive bonuses and instead reinvest and continue working.

 

[Randomguy]

35 minutes ago, Dirtyhip said:

Have you tried orthotics? 

Not foot issues orthotics can solve.  My feet hurt like I ran 4 marathons barefoot on broken concrete, from walking a quarter mile from the subway to Target, shopping, and back to the subway, then a quarter mile home from there yesterday.  So essentially, 1 mile will probably shut me down until Sunday, if drugs work.

[Razors Edge ★]

Just now, Randomguy said:

Not foot issues orthotics can solve.  My feet hurt like I ran 4 marathons barefoot on broken concrete, from walking a quarter mile from the subway to Target, shopping, and back to the subway, then a quarter mile home from there yesterday.  So essentially, 1 mile will probably shut me down until Sunday, if drugs work.

What's the origin of the foot issues?  Your description seems like it is not "normal" aging issues, so where'd this come from?

[Randomguy]

6 minutes ago, Razors Edge said:

What's the origin of the foot issues?  Your description seems like it is not "normal" aging issues, so where'd this come from?

Definitely not normal aging.  Still in process finding out what.

[maddmaxx ★]

They might have been wrong about going blind.

[Razors Edge ★]

Just now, Randomguy said:

Definitely not normal aging.  Still in process finding out what.

I'd rule out plantar fasciitus since that usually goes away after you stretch it out a bit.  Gout is a possibility for many.  Likewise arthritis can start creeping in as we age.  I also know high arches slowly dropping can be painful.  I have to have arch support for sure for running, and good cushioning or I get arch pain and/or shin splints. 

You could pre-medicate with ibuprofen since many issues are related to inflammation.  Take a couple pills 30 minutes before heading out and see if it makes a difference.  Don't stay on that (get a real diagnosis), but it will likely help take the edge off or keep it completely at bay until you sort it out with a doctor.

[shootingstar]

36 minutes ago, Randomguy said:

Not foot issues orthotics can solve.  My feet hurt like I ran 4 marathons barefoot on broken concrete, from walking a quarter mile from the subway to Target, shopping, and back to the subway, then a quarter mile home from there yesterday.  So essentially, 1 mile will probably shut me down until Sunday, if drugs work.

Did you accidentally sprain or break something in your foot?

I first recognized I had a problem when I was in considerable pain after only walking for 20 min. outside.  That was 25 years ago. I got custom orthotics to solve the problem.  It made a huge difference to me.

[Guest]

I have spurs on both heels and gave similar issues. It’s nit the spur that causes pain it’s the PF rubbing against the spur. If I continually stretch it is tolerable. It’s ok when I am active but once I stop for a short time it starts.

[Dirtyhip]

1 minute ago, shootingstar said:

Did you accidentally sprain or break something in your foot?

I first recognized I had a problem when I was in considerable pain after only walking for 20 min. outside.  That was 25 years ago. I got custom orthotics to solve the problem.  It made a huge difference to me.

Me too, but there was a process to go through first.  medical appointments with orthopedic surgeon.  Imaging.  They ruled pez cavus foot, PT and custom orthotics to stave off complete foot reconstruction.  Yeah, don't want that if I can avoid it.

Orthotics keep me going, but I have to get new ones once a year, because I am quite active on the feet.

[Chris...]

I was told today that my part time job will be gone as of March 31. They said they have lost a lot of work

[Dottleshead ★]

2 hours ago, Chris... said:

I was told today that my part time job will be gone as of March 31. They said they have lost a lot of work

Chris, let's get back to RG's foot, m'kay?

[The_Karen_Cooper_Incident]

5 hours ago, shootingstar said:

Taiwan is another good place to see how they have handled things.

Taiwan is doing an excellent job with this. I follow a couple of YouTube channels of people who live there.   

Taiwan was burned in 2003 and 2004 and they have a healthy mistrust of the CCP. 

 

[Randomguy]

I think elderly voters should be happy to throw their lives away for the sake of the economy.   

[12string]

Answering the question is apolitical.  Determining how it will actually be answered is what's political.  So I'll stick to the former

A back to work date can ONLY be determined by watching the numbers, and reacting.  The stimulus plans  - totalling about $4T so far - are all based on the ability to slow the spread to a manageable amount. Because getting everyone sick at once would be ruinous to the economy - not to mention kill a lot more people.  But strictly from an economic perspective, sending everyone back to work before the curve is flattened will cause the curve to ramp sharply upwards, force us to burn through that $4T in weeks, not months, and require 3 or 4 times that much to recover.  So forget life saving or being over it, it would be an economic disaster.

And the $4T (I suspect at least $6T before we're done) will be able to be recovered in a few years IF we have the guts to do it.  We're an incredibly wealthy nation.  Corporate profits alone are over $2T a year.  A little less sumpin sumpin to the shareholders and CEOs, a few dollars more in taxes for all the households making really more than they need to live well - it really won't even be that painful.

[Razors Edge ★]

2 minutes ago, 12string said:

A little less sumpin sumpin to the shareholders and CEOs,

BWAHAHAHAHA!

[12string]

9 minutes ago, Razors Edge said:

BWAHAHAHAHA!

Yeah, I can dream.

I'm hoping some of the reprioritizing going on right now sticks.

Verizon just quadrupled my data limit for free, I didn't even ask.  That should cut into the $4T a bit.

If corporate taxes go up, companies will pay it.  They aren't going to go running to some other country, they are all going to have to raise taxes.  This is a global problem, we'll have to learn to think that way to get out of it

[ChrisL]

5 hours ago, Razors Edge said:

Gout is a possibility for many.  Likewise arthritis can start creeping in as we age.  

@Randomguy have you had labs done checking your uric acid?  I was having tremendous foot pain in my 40’s and couldn’t figure it out.  My Dr did labs and I was having gout flairs.  I nearly went to the ER once the pain was so bad.  He put me in allopurinol and I haven’t had a flair since.  

The noob may be in to something here if you can’t pin point the pain to anything.  

[shootingstar]

So it's predicted that 4 million Canadians are unemployed by now.  Yes, there is some short term financial support for a few months.

I want to believe that at least 3 million will return to work...but it may not be at the same wages or part-time. But better than nothing.  However, even with economic stimulus, it's hard to imagine the economy will get back that fast in total. 

[sheep_herder ★]

6 hours ago, Randomguy said:

I think elderly voters should be happy to throw their lives away for the sake of the economy.   

Foot problems can be a PITA, and yes I know my anatomy!

[Prophet Zacharia]

My best medical advice is that we stay locked down through the month of April, and reassess from there. I think too many states aren’t doing enough now, though, and that will screw us up. I lean on the “if everyone is sick or dead, the economy will suffer more than a lockdown” side.

[Dottleshead ★]

4 hours ago, Prophet Zacharia said:

My best medical advice is that we stay locked down through the month of April, and reassess from there. I think too many states aren’t doing enough now, though, and that will screw us up. I lean on the “if everyone is sick or dead, the economy will suffer more than a lockdown” side.

I can work from home for the forseeable future as long as I'm getting my shit done.  I've been at it nonstop all day now.

[donkpow]

15 hours ago, 12string said:

A little less sumpin sumpin to the shareholders ...

Let's not get carried away, here.

I've got peripheral nerve damage, sourced in the knees, that reflect in the feet. Also, pinched nerves, as a result of degenerative diseases in the spine, manifesting symptoms remotely. The latter was a remarkable discovery for me.

[team scooter]

Where I work, I fought tooth and nail with the bosses for years to separate my job (working the yard, deliveries etc) from their's (working in the store and repair shop). They sent me a text late yesterday, said they're plan going forward, due to the virus, is to close the store and repair shop from public access. And all business/billing will be done over the phone. And I'll "get what 'I' always wanted!" And work the yard and do deliveries. But I'll also be picking up and dropping off machines/parts for the repair shop. In other words, I'll be the only one out in public, having contact with customers etc. Yay, it only took a pandemic.  Now, my only conundrum is whether I leave this place nicely and send them a text back today telling them I quit, or not show up on Monday and tell them to stick it when they call..... 

Sometimes I want to say lets just let this cardboard veneer economy/country ran by the rich but built by the common worker fail, and start all over with the common folks having a say. 

[Dottleshead ★]

12 minutes ago, team scooter said:

Where I work, I fought tooth and nail with the bosses for years to separate my job (working the yard, deliveries etc) from their's (working in the store and repair shop). They sent me a text late yesterday, said they're plan going forward, due to the virus, is to close the store and repair shop from public access. And all business/billing will be done over the phone. And I'll "get what 'I' always wanted!" And work the yard and do deliveries. But I'll also be picking up and dropping off machines/parts for the repair shop. In other words, I'll be the only one out in public, having contact with customers etc. Yay, it only took a pandemic.  Now, my only conundrum is whether I leave this place nicely and send them a text back today telling them I quit, or not show up on Monday and tell them to stick it when they call..... 

Sometimes I want to say lets just let this cardboard veneer economy/country ran by the rich but built by the common worker fail, and start all over with the common folks having a say. 

Well said.

[Dottleshead ★]

So are we going into a recession?  Depression?  We're safe but screwed?  

https://www.forbes.com/sites/mikeosullivan/2020/03/29/fast-recovery-or-great-depression-three-scenarios-for-the-coronavirus-economic-crisis/#7a17fd056b33

[Dottleshead ★]

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/coronavirus-job-losses-could-total-47-million-unemployment-rate-may-n1172111

 

It's going to be a higher unemployment rate than the Great Depression.

[Razors Edge ★]

5 minutes ago, Dottles said:

It's going to be a higher unemployment rate than the Great Depression.

But it is an artificial rate.  It's really not useful to use it as a metric until we're back open, and we see the true numbers of LOST jobs and shuttered businesses.  Any numbers from the next several months will be useless.

[Wilbur ★]

On 3/27/2020 at 11:41 AM, Zackny said:

It’s nit the spur that causes pain

Tell that to the horse.  

[12string]

9 minutes ago, Dottles said:

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/coronavirus-job-losses-could-total-47-million-unemployment-rate-may-n1172111

 

It's going to be a higher unemployment rate than the Great Depression.

Totally different.  During the depression, businesses tried, but couldn't stay solvent, or revenues dropped, employees got laid off.  InCoronavirus, the governments told millions of employers to immediately shut down - temporarily.  A few months after our recent fastest job loss ever, we'll see the fastest job gains ever.  Sure, many jobs won't return, we were trying to have a recession anyway.  But it won't compare to the depression

[Dottleshead ★]

So you believe we will rebound?

[Razors Edge ★]

8 minutes ago, Dottles said:

So you believe we will rebound?

Rebound? Definitely. But how long and how high?  It's not something that can fix itself quickly, but it may be a culling of the weak businesses, so some new "energy" is released over time for opportunities to new start-ups.  Likewise, the big guns - Google, MSFT, Amazon - will likely see a period of accelerated acquisitions. 

Hotels will fill. Planes will fill. Vegas & Orlando will return.  It's just a "when" but with a lingering "what if COVID-19 returns before a vaccine."

[late]

https://www.businessinsider.com/economists-publish-letter-save-lives-republican-democrat-economy-coronavirus-pandemic-2020-3

[late]

8 minutes ago, Razors Edge said:

Rebound? Definitely. But how long and how high?  It's not something that can fix itself quickly, but it may be a culling of the weak businesses, so some new "energy" is released over time for opportunities to new start-ups.  Likewise, the big guns - Google, MSFT, Amazon - will likely see a period of accelerated acquisitions. 

Hotels will fill. Planes will fill. Vegas & Orlando will return.  It's just a "when" but with a lingering "what if COVID-19 returns before a vaccine."

We will be a very, very different country after Trump.

[12string]

Oh, there will be a rebound.  But, people aren't realizing the cycle was moving to recession anyway.  So the rebound will not bring us back where we were.  Lots of small businesses won't return.  Unemployment will still be up.  And then there's the $trillions that need to be paid off.  That's going to take some real conviction to inflict pain by our politicians, I worry that they'll have the courage to raise taxes as needed.  In a recession, no less.  Gonna take YEARS to get our debt under control

[Dottleshead ★]

1 minute ago, 12string said:

Oh, there will be a rebound.  But, people aren't realizing the cycle was moving to recession anyway.  So the rebound will not bring us back where we were.  Lots of small businesses won't return.  Unemployment will still be up.  And then there's the $trillions that need to be paid off.  That's going to take some real conviction to inflict pain by our politicians, I worry that they'll have the courage to raise taxes as needed.  In a recession, no less.  Gonna take YEARS to get our debt under control

I've been hearing the debt drum beating for 30 years now and they keep spending and spending.  So it's either bullshit or they just aren't good forecasters.