Bikeguy Posted April 1, 2020 Share #1 Posted April 1, 2020 Based in the premise that many people think 'they' will not get sick. Or 'they are not spading the virus. This will probably still continue for a while, and get much worse before it gets better. Just a few examples;. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/31/florida-megachurch-pastor-arrested-for-breaching-covid-19-health-order https://floridapolitics.com/archives/325997-which-florida-beaches-are-closed-which-are-still-open https://nypost.com/2020/03/26/chicago-threatens-fines-arrests-for-coronavirus-crackdown-violators/ https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/annehelenpetersen/coronavirus-covid-cities-second-homes-rural-small-towns https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/dont-even-think-about-leaving-new-york-city/608884/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2Far ★ Posted April 1, 2020 Share #2 Posted April 1, 2020 5 minutes ago, Bikeguy said: Based in the premise that many people think 'they' will not get sick. Or 'they are not spading the virus. This will probably still continue for a while, and get much worse before it gets better. Just a few examples;. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/31/florida-megachurch-pastor-arrested-for-breaching-covid-19-health-order https://floridapolitics.com/archives/325997-which-florida-beaches-are-closed-which-are-still-open https://nypost.com/2020/03/26/chicago-threatens-fines-arrests-for-coronavirus-crackdown-violators/ https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/annehelenpetersen/coronavirus-covid-cities-second-homes-rural-small-towns https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/dont-even-think-about-leaving-new-york-city/608884/ Well, ya cain't fix stupid, but the virus can. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2Far ★ Posted April 1, 2020 Share #3 Posted April 1, 2020 Whelp, if the Italians have peaked (hopefully) at ~12,500 PTD (Pandemic-To-Date) and the ramp down is similar to the ramp up, then they'll be at about 25k. With the US @ 6 times the Italian population, that puts ours at 150K. But, we're much more spread out overall, so I'ma guessing the 100k number could be about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bikeguy Posted April 1, 2020 Author Share #4 Posted April 1, 2020 4 minutes ago, 2Far said: Whelp, if the Italians have peaked (hopefully) at ~12,500 PTD (Pandemic-To-Date) and the ramp down is similar to the ramp up, then they'll be at about 25k. With the US @ 6 times the Italian population, that puts ours at 150K. But, we're much more spread out overall, so I'ma guessing the 100k number could be about right. exactly... I hope not... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MickinMD ★ Posted April 1, 2020 Share #5 Posted April 1, 2020 27 minutes ago, Bikeguy said: Based in the premise that many people think 'they' will not get sick. Or 'they are not spading the virus. This will probably still continue for a while, and get much worse before it gets better. Just a few examples;. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/31/florida-megachurch-pastor-arrested-for-breaching-covid-19-health-order https://floridapolitics.com/archives/325997-which-florida-beaches-are-closed-which-are-still-open https://nypost.com/2020/03/26/chicago-threatens-fines-arrests-for-coronavirus-crackdown-violators/ https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/annehelenpetersen/coronavirus-covid-cities-second-homes-rural-small-towns https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/dont-even-think-about-leaving-new-york-city/608884/ Good points. Even those working relatively close together and meeting with the public in essential services make up enough of the population to keep things going. The big variable is seasonality. I hope it drops off as spring progresses, like the SARS-2002 coronavirus did, but I'm not counting on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MickinMD ★ Posted April 1, 2020 Share #6 Posted April 1, 2020 I just got a call from my PCP's office asking if I was still planning to come in for my every-3-month diabetic blood test and followup appointments on April 10 & 16. I decided to move everything back 3 months and skip this one, especially since the house fire, missing a few days of meds, and my sinus infection are sure to throw any April blood test #'s off from normal and they won't tell us much anyway. That was ok with the office. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dirtyhip Posted April 1, 2020 Share #7 Posted April 1, 2020 People are stupid and have a short attention span. This is a bad combo with this. Stay vigilant, people. I want to see your posts continue for a long while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MickinMD ★ Posted April 1, 2020 Share #8 Posted April 1, 2020 Note that 61,000 Americans died of the flu in 2017-18, against which 60% of the population had partial protection from vaccinations. Note also that, since Oct. 2019, 242 Americans were dying each day on avg. from the flu through mid-March. 150 Californian's have died of COVID-19, but over 40 died of the flu in the first two weeks of January alone. Those flu deaths hardly made the news, so if 100,000 die of COVID-19, it's terrible but shouldn't devastate the country. 100,000 is very possible, but not if COVID-19 proves seasonal. We just don't know! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maddmaxx ★ Posted April 1, 2020 Share #9 Posted April 1, 2020 It's no worse than the flu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dinneR ★ Posted April 1, 2020 Share #10 Posted April 1, 2020 7 minutes ago, MickinMD said: Note that 61,000 Americans died of the flu in 2017-18, against which 60% of the population had partial protection from vaccinations. Note also that, since Oct. 2019, 242 Americans were dying each day on avg. from the flu through mid-March. 150 Californian's have died of COVID-19, but over 40 died of the flu in the first two weeks of January alone. Those flu deaths hardly made the news, so if 100,000 die of COVID-19, it's terrible but shouldn't devastate the country. 100,000 is very possible, but not if COVID-19 proves seasonal. We just don't know! Mick, how often do hospitals rent refrigerated trailers to house the bodies that stack up from the flu? I've never heard of this is as a problem with the flu. The morgues in NY are full. You keep referring to covid possibly being seasonal. Do you have evidence to back that up or do you just like to suggest it might be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UglyBob Posted April 1, 2020 Share #11 Posted April 1, 2020 44 minutes ago, Dirtyhip said: People are stupid and have a short attention span. This is a bad combo with this. Stay vigilant, people. I want to see your posts continue for a long while. Even the parodies? JK--I too hope we're all still here when this crap dies down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bikeguy Posted April 2, 2020 Author Share #12 Posted April 2, 2020 13 hours ago, dennis said: Mick, how often do hospitals rent refrigerated trailers to house the bodies that stack up from the flu? I've never heard of this is as a problem with the flu. The morgues in NY are full. Yeah... seeing the trucks lined up in Italy to haul away the bodies was 'the moment' for me. That's starting to happening in NY now. Sad to say... probably will happen in other cites int he US sooner than we expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prophet Zacharia Posted April 2, 2020 Share #13 Posted April 2, 2020 17 hours ago, Dirtyhip said: People are stupid and have a short attention span. This is a bad combo with this. Stay vigilant, people. I want to see your posts continue for a long while. There have been so many mixed messages given out by federal leadership that it’s no wonder people aren’t prepared for what it will take to clear this. Yes, “churches open for Easter” was walked back, but still now the message is that the next two weeks will be hard. Try “the next 6 weeks will be hard” and your starting to communicate the scope of what will be needed to fight this infection, nationally. Also, I was listening to a TV ad yesterday, the message is still wrong. Still too much minimizing the risk to younger people, stating the risk is mainly to the elderly. Sure, the risk of death is more for the elderly, but plenty of younger people are getting hospitalized, and some even dying. How about simply “this is a highly contagious virus that can lead to severe pneumonia and even death. Stay in your house.” People are smart enough to know that if they have preexisting medical conditions or are elderly they would be in a more vulnerable group. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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