100,000 Seems Likely

[Bikeguy]

Based in the premise that many people think 'they' will not get sick.  Or 'they are not spading the virus.    This will probably still continue for a while, and get much worse before it gets better.

Just a few examples;.  

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/31/florida-megachurch-pastor-arrested-for-breaching-covid-19-health-order

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/325997-which-florida-beaches-are-closed-which-are-still-open

https://nypost.com/2020/03/26/chicago-threatens-fines-arrests-for-coronavirus-crackdown-violators/

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/annehelenpetersen/coronavirus-covid-cities-second-homes-rural-small-towns

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/dont-even-think-about-leaving-new-york-city/608884/

[2Far ★]

5 minutes ago, Bikeguy said:

Based in the premise that many people think 'they' will not get sick.  Or 'they are not spading the virus.    This will probably still continue for a while, and get much worse before it gets better.

Just a few examples;.  

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/31/florida-megachurch-pastor-arrested-for-breaching-covid-19-health-order

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/325997-which-florida-beaches-are-closed-which-are-still-open

https://nypost.com/2020/03/26/chicago-threatens-fines-arrests-for-coronavirus-crackdown-violators/

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/annehelenpetersen/coronavirus-covid-cities-second-homes-rural-small-towns

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/dont-even-think-about-leaving-new-york-city/608884/

Well, ya cain't fix stupid, but the virus can.

[2Far ★]

Whelp, if the Italians have peaked (hopefully) at ~12,500 PTD (Pandemic-To-Date) and the ramp down is similar to the ramp up, then they'll be at about 25k. With the US @ 6 times the Italian population, that puts ours at 150K. But, we're much more spread out overall, so I'ma guessing the 100k number could be about right.

[Bikeguy]

4 minutes ago, 2Far said:

Whelp, if the Italians have peaked (hopefully) at ~12,500 PTD (Pandemic-To-Date) and the ramp down is similar to the ramp up, then they'll be at about 25k. With the US @ 6 times the Italian population, that puts ours at 150K. But, we're much more spread out overall, so I'ma guessing the 100k number could be about right.

exactly...   I hope not...

[MickinMD ★]

27 minutes ago, Bikeguy said:

Based in the premise that many people think 'they' will not get sick.  Or 'they are not spading the virus.    This will probably still continue for a while, and get much worse before it gets better.

Just a few examples;.  

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/31/florida-megachurch-pastor-arrested-for-breaching-covid-19-health-order

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/325997-which-florida-beaches-are-closed-which-are-still-open

https://nypost.com/2020/03/26/chicago-threatens-fines-arrests-for-coronavirus-crackdown-violators/

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/annehelenpetersen/coronavirus-covid-cities-second-homes-rural-small-towns

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/dont-even-think-about-leaving-new-york-city/608884/

Good points.  Even those working relatively close together and meeting with the public in essential services make up enough of the population to keep things going.

The big variable is seasonality.  I hope it drops off as spring progresses, like the SARS-2002 coronavirus did, but I'm not counting on it.

[MickinMD ★]

I just got a call from my PCP's office asking if I was still planning to come in for my every-3-month diabetic blood test and followup appointments on April 10 & 16.

I decided to move everything back 3 months and skip this one, especially since the house fire, missing a few days of meds, and my sinus infection are sure to throw any April blood test #'s off from normal and they won't tell us much anyway.  That was ok with the office.

[Dirtyhip]

People are stupid and have a short attention span.  This is a bad combo with this.

Stay vigilant, people.  I want to see your posts continue for a long while.

[MickinMD ★]

Note that 61,000 Americans died of the flu in 2017-18, against which 60% of the population had partial protection from vaccinations.

Note also that, since Oct. 2019, 242 Americans were dying each day on avg. from the flu through mid-March. 150 Californian's have died of COVID-19, but over 40 died of the flu in the first two weeks of January alone.

Those flu deaths hardly made the news, so if 100,000 die of COVID-19, it's terrible but shouldn't devastate the country.

100,000 is very possible, but not if COVID-19 proves seasonal.  We just don't know!

[maddmaxx ★]

It's no worse than the flu  

[dinneR ★]

7 minutes ago, MickinMD said:

Note that 61,000 Americans died of the flu in 2017-18, against which 60% of the population had partial protection from vaccinations.

Note also that, since Oct. 2019, 242 Americans were dying each day on avg. from the flu through mid-March. 150 Californian's have died of COVID-19, but over 40 died of the flu in the first two weeks of January alone.

Those flu deaths hardly made the news, so if 100,000 die of COVID-19, it's terrible but shouldn't devastate the country.

100,000 is very possible, but not if COVID-19 proves seasonal.  We just don't know!

Mick, how often do hospitals rent refrigerated trailers to house the bodies that stack up from the flu? I've never heard of this is as a problem with the flu. The morgues in NY are full.

You keep referring to covid possibly being seasonal. Do you have evidence to back that up or do you just like to suggest it might be?

[UglyBob]

44 minutes ago, Dirtyhip said:

People are stupid and have a short attention span.  This is a bad combo with this.

Stay vigilant, people.  I want to see your posts continue for a long while.

Even the parodies?

JK--I too hope we're all still here when this crap dies down.

[Bikeguy]

13 hours ago, dennis said:

Mick, how often do hospitals rent refrigerated trailers to house the bodies that stack up from the flu? I've never heard of this is as a problem with the flu. The morgues in NY are full.

Yeah... seeing the trucks lined up in Italy to haul away the bodies was 'the moment' for me.   That's starting to happening in NY now.   Sad to say... probably will happen in other cites int he US sooner than we expect.

[Prophet Zacharia]

17 hours ago, Dirtyhip said:

People are stupid and have a short attention span.  This is a bad combo with this.

Stay vigilant, people.  I want to see your posts continue for a long while.

There have been so many mixed messages given out by federal leadership that it’s no wonder people aren’t prepared for what it will take to clear this. Yes, “churches open for Easter” was walked back, but still now the message is that the next two weeks will be hard. Try “the next 6 weeks will be hard” and your starting to communicate the scope of what will be needed to fight this infection, nationally. 
 

Also, I was listening to a TV ad yesterday, the message is still wrong. Still too much minimizing the risk to younger people, stating the risk is mainly to the elderly. Sure, the risk of death is more for the elderly, but plenty of younger people are getting hospitalized, and some even dying. How about simply “this is a highly contagious virus that can lead to severe pneumonia and even death. Stay in your house.” People are smart enough to know that if they have preexisting medical conditions or are elderly they would be in a more vulnerable group.