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Airehead

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It's not matter of not getting.  Outside of a vaccine, most will get it and nothing we can really do about it.  Most don't think they will die from it and they would be right.

 

On that note, I was thinking, the flu is probably actually worse, the only reason it's survival rate is better than covid is because we have a vaccine to protect the high risk, with out that, the numbers for flu would be a lot higher.

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7 minutes ago, Indy said:

It's not matter of not getting.  Outside of a vaccine, most will get it and nothing we can really do about it.  Most don't think they will die from it and they would be right.

 

On that note, I was thinking, the flu is probably actually worse, the only reason it's survival rate is better than covid is because we have a vaccine to protect the high risk, with out that, the numbers for flu would be a lot higher.

Many are whistling past the grave yard too.  To the best of my knowledge the regular flu never stacked bodies up to the point of needing refrigerator trucks to store them............never.

For comparison, if a 2% kill rate holds up we are speaking of 6 million dead minimum in this country alone if every body gets it.  I don't think some comprehend what everybody means.

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Just now, maddmaxx said:

Many are whistling past the grave yard too.  To the best of my knowledge the regular flu never stacked bodies up to the point of needing refrigerator trucks to store them............never.

It's how fast this spreads that is result of that.  But the death rate is 1.9% I believe for flu and this, most sources are putting it at 5% or less.  Yes, some extreme's are trying to throw it higher based off of bad data collection and ignoring the numbers of likely infected and minor to no symptoms.  

 

But in the end, most project about double that of flu, and was just thinking (my mind wired weird) what would be a survival rate of flu without a vaccine.  I'm guessing it would be similar if not maybe even slightly worse, so then this isn't really worse than the flu, just faster moving.

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11 minutes ago, maddmaxx said:

Many are whistling past the grave yard too.  To the best of my knowledge the regular flu never stacked bodies up to the point of needing refrigerator trucks to store them............never.

For comparison, if a 2% kill rate holds up we are speaking of 6 million dead minimum in this country alone if every body gets it.  I don't think some comprehend what everybody means.

Also, part of the reason for backup and needing the refrigerator trucks is they are trying to delay funerals as you don't want people congregating. 

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In this country the death rate for flu is 23,000 deaths divided by 38 million ill or .06%.  That's a far cry of the same or if you wish, better than 10 times less if calculated against the estimated number of cases.

https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html

At the current rate, New York state will top that 23,000 in 23 days.

11 minutes ago, Indy said:

Also, part of the reason for backup and needing the refrigerator trucks is they are trying to delay funerals as you don't want people congregating. 

Incorrect.  The refrigerator trucks are because the dead are outpacing the ability of mortuaries to process the bodies.  Ie they can't cremate them fast enough to keep up.

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18 million people live in NY.   US Population is 330 million.

18 million people die per year of heart disease in the US.

If you divide the NY population by the US population you get .054

.054 of the NY population is about 100,000

Divide that by 365 and you get 274.

So this is disease is three times more deadly than heart disease so far in NY.  Horrible, yes!  Tragic? Yes!  

I just try to keep this in perspective with other causes of death and realize that the world is not coming to an end.

My county has had 287 cases out of population of 1.1 million.  We have had 4 deaths and over 102 people recover.   Try to look at all the numbers, not just the death toll.  Look for good numbers.  Less than 1.5 percent death rate from Covid 19 in our county and well over 33% recovery rate so far.

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6 minutes ago, maddmaxx said:

In this country the death rate for flu is 23,000 deaths divided by 38 million ill or .06%.  That's a far cry of the same or if you wish, better than 10 times less if calculated against the estimated number of cases.

 

 

Incorrect.  The refrigerator trucks are because the dead are outpacing the ability of mortuaries to process the bodies.  Ie they can't cremate them fast enough to keep up.

Can't cremate until family okays it, usually that means a funeral.

 

And the death rate of the flu is a lot higher than that, you have to get it first to count and the first people to get the flu vaccine is the high risk group which makes the survival rate look far better.

And according to the CDC only 3-11% even get the flu each year, that is why this virus is so bad.

And New England of Medicine is saying covid is below 2% death rate now based on world wide data.

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48 minutes ago, Zackny said:

Why isn’t Death Jim reporting on this:dontknow:

Watching closely. Hoping the peak is soon and the numbers start looking better. I use 1% of the population infected  as a benchmark for how serious this is. If I understand the N.Y. numbers correctly we’re at .7%. The rest of the country is a lot lower.  But even if the overall numbers are low, every death is a tragedy. BuffCarla’s cousin died Sunday, and my brother’s best friend has been on a ventilator most of the past 12 days.  I also think some of the critical patients that survive will need lung transplants or oxygen therapy. 

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56 minutes ago, Airehead said:

I be

ieve he just had a family member die. Might be at the drive by funeral— not kidding. Also, in Monroe county the morgue is full and they have brought in refrigerator trucks as mobile morgues. 

Haven’t heard of any funeral plans. Wouldn’t be surprised if there’s a memorial service when the quarantine eases. 

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4 minutes ago, BuffJim said:

Watching closely. Hoping the peak is soon and the numbers start looking better. I use 1% of the population infected  as a benchmark for how serious this is. If I understand the N.Y. numbers correctly we’re at .7%. The rest of the country is a lot lower.  But even if the overall numbers are low, every death is a tragedy. BuffCarla’s cousin died Sunday, and my brother’s best friend has been on a ventilator most of the past 12 days.  I also think some of the critical patients that survive will need lung transplants or oxygen therapy. 

Based on the fact people can have it with virtually no symptoms, I'd say that number is way to low and they are only testing high risk patients and essential service providers.  I know here, some of the essential service providers are tested regularly and are really screwing up the numbers as you have the same people testing negative multiple times and not being effectively taken into consideration in the calculations.

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32 minutes ago, Indy said:

Can't cremate until family okays it, usually that means a funeral.

 

And the death rate of the flu is a lot higher than that, you have to get it first to count and the first people to get the flu vaccine is the high risk group which makes the survival rate look far better.

And according to the CDC only 3-11% even get the flu each year, that is why this virus is so bad.

And New England of Medicine is saying covid is below 2% death rate now based on world wide data.

OK, cut the 2% in half..........that means only 3 million dead in this country alone.

You're right.

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1 hour ago, Indy said:

But the death rate is 1.9%

WRONG!  No one knows what it is, but apparently in NYC it is much, much higher than is being reported.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Staggering Surge Of NYers Dying In Their Homes Suggests City Is Undercounting Coronavirus Fatalities

BY GWYNNE HOGAN, WNYC
APRIL 7, 2020 6:00 A.M.
  204 COMMENTS
The Empire State Building rises over an FDNY Ambulance on Queens Blvd. in the Borough of Queens in New York, New York, USA, 24 March 2020
The Empire State Building rises over an FDNY Ambulance on Queens Blvd. in Queens in March 2020. BRYAN R SMITH/EPA-EFE/SHUTTERSTOCK
 

If you die at home from the coronavirus, there’s a good chance you won’t be included in the official death toll, because of a discrepancy in New York City’s reporting process.

The problem means the city’s official death count is likely far lower than the real toll taken by the virus, according to public health officials.

It also means that victims without access to testing are not being counted, and even epidemiologists are left without a full understanding of the pandemic.

As of Monday afternoon, 2,738 New York City residents have died from ‘confirmed’ cases of COVID-19, according to the city Department of Health. That’s an average of 245 a day since the previous Monday. 

But another 200 city residents are now dying at home each day, compared to 20 to 25 such deaths before the pandemic, said Aja Worthy-Davis, a spokeswoman for the medical examiner’s office. And an untold number of them are unconfirmed. 

ADVERTISEMENT
 

Listen to reporter Gwynne Hogan discuss her story on WNYC:

That’s because the ME’s office is not testing dead bodies for COVID-19. Instead, they’re referring suspected cases to the city’s health department as “probable.”

“If someone dies at home, and we go to the home and there [are] signs of influenza, our medical examiner may determine the cause of death was clearly an influenza-like illness, potentially COVID or an influenza-like illness believed to be COVID,” said Worthy-Davis. “We report all our deaths citywide to the health department, who releases that data to the public.” 

But the health department does not include that number in the official count unless it is confirmed, a spokesman said. 

“Every person with a lab confirmed COVID-19 diagnosis is counted in the number of fatalities,” the spokesman, Michael Lanza, said in an email. He said the city's coronavirus death tally does not break down who died at home versus who died in a hospital from the virus.

“While undiagnosed cases that result in at-home deaths are connected to a public health pandemic...not all suspected COVID-19 deaths are brought in for examination by OCME, nor do we provide testing in most of these natural at-home deaths,” Lanza said.

Typically, when someone dies at home, a loved one, acquaintance or neighbor calls the police or 911. First responders call in the medical examiner, who conducts a review to determine if there was foul play, then records a cause of death.

Worthy-Davis could not immediately provide a tally of how many “probable” COVID-19 deaths have been referred to the Health Department. The health department also could not provide the number of “probable” COVID deaths certified by OCME. 

If a person had been tested before death, that record would be passed along, said Worthy-Davis. But testing protocols have generally excluded victims who are not hospitalized.

Statistics from the Fire Department, which runs EMS, confirm a staggering rise in deaths occurring at the scene before first responders can transport a person to a hospital for care.

The FDNY says it responded to 2,192 cases of deaths at home between March 20th and April 5th, or about 130 a day, an almost 400 percent increase from the same time period last year. (In 2019, there were just 453 cardiac arrest calls where a patient died, according to the FDNY.) 

That number has been steadily increasing since March 30th, with 241 New Yorkers dying at home Sunday — more than the number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths that occurred citywide that day. On Monday night, the city reported 266 new deaths, suggesting the possibility of a 40% undercount of coronavirus-related deaths. 

A spokeswoman for Mayor Bill de Blasio did not return a request for comment about the difference between probable and confirmed COVID-19 deaths. But the discrepancy troubled public health authorities and local elected officials.

“There’s no doubt we’re undercounting,” said City Councilman Mark Levine, who chairs the city’s Health Committee. “If the person had a confirmed test result before death then they were marked that was the cause of death on the death certificate. If someone did not have a confirmed test but it appears they had the symptoms, then OCME will flag them as a ‘possible’ [COVID death]. It’s unclear to me whether those are being counted in our total stats.”

Dr. Irwin Redlener, the director of Columbia University's National Center for Disaster Preparedness, called the discrepancy “a subset of the whole testing fiasco.” He said the city should be testing dead bodies and reporting the results.

“This difference between the [Medical Examiner] and the Health Department, that’s something that needs to be resolved urgently, that’s not okay,” Redlener said. “They have to be on the same page.”

Redlener said the city should also be tracking other deaths that occur as collateral damage.

“[People] may be dying because of reduced care for other non-COVID diseases” like diabetes, heart attacks or other chronic conditions, Redlener said. “Those to me, should be somehow tallied as we’re looking at the death toll of COVID.”

Meanwhile, city and hospital morgues and refrigerated trucks used to supplement them are nearing capacity, and first responders continue to answer unprecedented numbers of 911 calls every day. They’re averaging more than 6,400 a day over the last 11 days, compared to 4,500 before the pandemic, according to union officials. 

To alleviate pressure on hospitals, last week the council that oversees emergency responders told paramedics and EMTs  to try to revive a person whose heart has stopped beating in the field. If they can’t do so, the person is not taken to a hospital for further care. 

“We had one lieutenant in his 16-hour tour respond to 11 cardiac arrests, which is beyond abnormal,” said Michael Greco, vice president of Local 2507, the union representing the Fire Department’s EMTs and paramedics. On Sunday, they fielded 187 calls for cardiac arrest, where they would have to try to revive people on site. They used to get 20 of those a day, he said.

“None of us were trained for this,” he said. “None of us signed up for this.”

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39 minutes ago, Indy said:

Based on the fact people can have it with virtually no symptoms, I'd say that number is way to low and they are only testing high risk patients and essential service providers.  I know here, some of the essential service providers are tested regularly and are really screwing up the numbers as you have the same people testing negative multiple times and not being effectively taken into consideration in the calculations.

Absolutely true around here. Most people are assume positive and quarantine. No official counts of them. Sick enough to need a hospital is when you get tested. 

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1 hour ago, Indy said:

It's not matter of not getting.  Outside of a vaccine, most will get it and nothing we can really do about it.  Most don't think they will die from it and they would be right.

 

On that note, I was thinking, the flu is probably actually worse, the only reason it's survival rate is better than covid is because we have a vaccine to protect the high risk, with out that, the numbers for flu would be a lot higher.

Geez, Indy, you are all kinds of wrong in almost every statement you make, kind of like your tyrant in chief you are so confusingly enamored with.

Yes, there is something we can do about it, we can all slow the transmission of it down so's that ventilators will be available to more people over time.  This will lower the overall death rate.  Dying people kind of want to be on ventilators, you see, it gives them a chance to live.  I get that you are impatient, but does this seem unreasonable to you?

The flu is by no measure worse, none.  This is shit-tons worse, even as normal, thoughtful, and intelligent people distance themselves away from others, wear masks, scrub things within inches of their lives, and isolate.  How could this possibly be not as bad as the flu?

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1 hour ago, jsharr said:

18 million people live in NY.   US Population is 330 million.

18 million people die per year of heart disease in the US.

If you divide the NY population by the US population you get .054

.054 of the NY population is about 100,000

Divide that by 365 and you get 274.

So this is disease is three times more deadly than heart disease so far in NY.  Horrible, yes!  Tragic? Yes!  

I just try to keep this in perspective with other causes of death and realize that the world is not coming to an end.

My county has had 287 cases out of population of 1.1 million.  We have had 4 deaths and over 102 people recover.   Try to look at all the numbers, not just the death toll.  Look for good numbers.  Less than 1.5 percent death rate from Covid 19 in our county and well over 33% recovery rate so far.

Speaking from experience here, Dallas really hasn't begun to get hit.  It probably will get hit in a sustained way, but I hope I am wrong.

Regardless,  any stat regarding heart disease or traffic accidents and the like have zero connection to your argument that might look like it may make sense until you examine it a bit.  Traffic accidents and heart disease are not passed around by direct or indirect contact or inhalation from other traffic accident or heart disease victims..  

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1 hour ago, Randomguy said:

Geez, Indy, you are all kinds of wrong in almost every statement you make, kind of like your tyrant in chief you are so confusingly enamored with.

Honestly man, why argue at this point?  Indy has been consistent with his opinion for a long time now.  I'm pretty certain, even after this is all said and done, you are not going to convince him otherwise.

Unfortunately or fortunately, depending on how you look at this, I agree with you about the situation.  This is a clusterfuck of all clusterfucks.  

I blame the CDC, the WHO and most importantly the CCP.  I suggest we focus our pissedoffedness on those mother fuckers.

 

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1 hour ago, Randomguy said:

Geez, Indy, you are all kinds of wrong in almost every statement you make, kind of like your tyrant in chief you are so confusingly enamored with.

Yes, there is something we can do about it, we can all slow the transmission of it down so's that ventilators will be available to more people over time.  This will lower the overall death rate.  Dying people kind of want to be on ventilators, you see, it gives them a chance to live.  I get that you are impatient, but does this seem unreasonable to you?

The flu is by no measure worse, none.  This is shit-tons worse, even as normal, thoughtful, and intelligent people distance themselves away from others, wear masks, scrub things within inches of their lives, and isolate.  How could this possibly be not as bad as the flu?

It is worse than flu...because we haven't yet found the vaccine and physicians really don't know how to slow it down once a patient is admitted into hospital. Being put on the ventilator is final stage which there is a 70% chance by then one will die. :(  I was just talking to my doc-sis today. How a person dies is absolutely horrible.

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3 hours ago, maddmaxx said:

To the best of my knowledge the regular flu never stacked bodies up to the point of needing refrigerator trucks to store them............never.

I'd suggest that there were more than a few bodies stacked up in 1918-1919.  That was 'the flu' with no vaccine.  

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-pandemic-h1n1.html

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-commemoration/pandemic-timeline-1918.htm

The virus returned on 2008-2009 and that's when a vaccine was developed.

I don't think anyone 'knows' how this will end.   But I'm sure we will all see the results...

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23 hours ago, Airehead said:

Number of covid positive deaths in New York State in the last 24 hours. But yet people are still believing they won’t get it. What will it take for people to get wise. 

We only had 21 in Maryland, but that's about 1/5 of all coronavirus deaths here.  The number of confirmed cases skyrocketed today, though that's mostly because testing has skyrocketed - 32,933 total negative tests, 5677 more than the previous day but there were only 1000+ the day before that.

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Maybe it’s just a matter of semantics. If we agree that it’s a flu-like syndrome that no-one is immune to, we have no vaccine for, that spreads very easily, and kills somewhere in the 2% range when hospitals aren’t overrun, sure it’s just like the flu that everyone has at least partial immunity to and kills substantially fewer people each year. What we have here is just a failure to communicate. 
 

*I don’t need your civil war.

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