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Are We On Pace?


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Go to solution Solved by Kzoo,

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Before you can make an accurate prediction, you'd have to look at the rate of posting - which is called it's velocity - then the rate of increase in the number of posts/day as time has gone on - which is called it's acceleration - and then the rate that the acceleration has increased - which is called it's jerk.

So you have to be a jerk before you can figure it out.

Or, you can guess with a straight line approximation that since the 1,000,000th post was Oct. 14, 2020 and 1,388.669 occurred on Jan. 23, 2020, there are 388,669 posts every (366+365 + 31 +30 +31+9=) 832 days, that's 467.150 posts per day.  Since we need 2,000,000 - 1,388,669 = 611,331 more posts, then 611,331/467.150 = 1309 days.

So, from 1/23/23, that's 365 + 366 + 365 (1096) days to get to 1/23/26 with 213 days left to go.  so 31 + 28 + 31 + 30 + 31 + 30 +31 (212 days) gets us to Aug. 23, 2026 with one day left to go. So:

our 2,000,000 post should occur around August 24, 2026.

That's less accurate than being a jerk, but easier!

 

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11 minutes ago, MickinMD said:

Before you can make an accurate prediction, you'd have to look at the rate of posting - which is called it's velocity - then the rate of increase in the number of posts/day as time has gone on - which is called it's acceleration - and then the rate that the acceleration has increased - which is called it's jerk.

So you have to be a jerk before you can figure it out.

Or, you can guess with a straight line approximation that since the 1,000,000th post was Oct. 14, 2020 and 1,388.669 occurred on Jan. 23, 2020, there are 388,669 posts every (366+365 + 31 +30 +31+9=) 832 days, that's 467.150 posts per day.  Since we need 2,000,000 - 1,388,669 = 611,331 more posts, then 611,331/467.150 = 1309 days.

So, from 1/23/23, that's 365 + 366 + 365 (1096) days to get to 1/23/26 with 213 days left to go.  so 31 + 28 + 31 + 30 + 31 + 30 +31 (212 days) gets us to Aug. 23, 2026 with one day left to go. So:

our 2,000,000 post should occur around August 24, 2026.

That's less accurate than being a jerk, but easier!

I applaud this reply.  Exactly the sort of info I was looking for.

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27 minutes ago, Kzoo said:

Wrong

:o Maybe so.  If we assume our posts/day will increase by say, 1 post/month, then the avg posts/day =

Pavg = (Pf + 467.150)/2, where

Pft = 467.150 + vt, where, for approx. 3 years:

= 467.150 + 1 x (3 x 12) = 503.150 posts per day.

So the avg. Posts/day, Pavg = (467.150 + 503.150)/2 = 485.15 posts/day

That will mean we need 1260 days and move the 2,000,000 date up 49 days to July, 5, 2026.

If we try real hard, we might hit it on the 4th of July!

But I think the Aug. 24th, 2026 date I first calculated is more likely!

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