Will TREK survive TOTAL CHAOS in the global BICYCLE MARKETS?

[dinneR ★]

This guy is funny. Not sure it's total chaos, but he makes some good points.

 

[Razors Edge ★]

Trek, yeah they'll survive.  Giant and Specialized. Same. Shimano as a supplier is fine.

But move to smaller groups and sitting on inventory is a nightmare. Owing money to Shimano and SRAM or other suppliers is a nightmare.

[bikeman564™]

you lost me after "sorry not sorry"

[bikeman564™]

1 minute ago, Razors Edge said:

Trek, yeah they'll survive.  Giant and Specialized. Same. Shimano as a supplier is fine.

i agree

[Razors Edge ★]

1 minute ago, bikeman564™ said:

i agree

I did hear worries about Cannondale and its ownership. Pon is pretty big and cycling not its core competency.  Sometimes that makes the step-child ripe for sale and/or closure or restructuring.  They own Cervelo too, I think, so they have to have some exposure to excess inventory, and unlike an "all-in" bike company, they might decide to cut their losses. 

[bikeman564™]

13 minutes ago, Razors Edge said:

I did hear worries about Cannondale and its ownership. Pon is pretty big and cycling not its core competency.  Sometimes that makes the step-child ripe for sale and/or closure or restructuring.  They own Cervelo too, I think, so they have to have some exposure to excess inventory, and unlike an "all-in" bike company, they might decide to cut their losses. 

They own a lot. That's the US now, buy everything and fuck it up.  I'm speaking from first-hand personal experience.

[Razors Edge ★]

42 minutes ago, bikeman564™ said:

They own a lot. That's the US now, buy everything and fuck it up.  I'm speaking from first-hand personal experience.

It does seem that way for a lot of the "get bigger or die" we see in business.  My old job back in 2000 was a small software company with a very niche product. They were acquired in my first year there by a larger but still small software company under the "buy to grow" mantra.  We were then bought by a much larger software company, which resulted in my original team's product being a rounding error compared to their bottom line (yet vital to our small core clientele). THat's when the push for vertical and horizontal integrations and squeezing square peg software into round peg solutions and bundling etc. royally started disrupting the original softwares customers needs. Next was the final "swallow" by the biggest fish that own them now. Not sure what happened to that now OLD software - whether it was updated and modernized or died a long protracted death with a totally different software company claiming those customers.  

What I can say is the products we made originally had a lot of customer loyalty and face-to-face exposure with the customers.  That was gone midway into the 2nd owners, and not even a memory the I left under the third owners. 

I can see the cycle repeated in many industries. I see merit in the kill or be killed process or the adapt or die process but also see how the mindless "grow, grow, grow" process is wasteful in so many ways.

[maddmaxx ★]

I'm holding on for Mongoose to make a return to real bike shops.

[dinneR ★]

1 hour ago, Razors Edge said:

Trek, yeah they'll survive.  Giant and Specialized. Same. Shimano as a supplier is fine.

But move to smaller groups and sitting on inventory is a nightmare. Owing money to Shimano and SRAM or other suppliers is a nightmare.

 

1 hour ago, bikeman564™ said:

i agree

I think you guys missed his point. He doesn't really suggest Trek is going under. He is critical of their growth move away from their roots.

Look at Klein, Gary Fisher, and Wrench Force.

[Razors Edge ★]

13 minutes ago, dinneR said:

I think you guys missed his point. He doesn't really suggest Trek is going under. He is critical of their growth move away from their roots.

Look at Klein, Gary Fisher, and Wrench Force.

In our defense, the title of the video (and this thread) is "Will TREK survive TOTAL CHAOS in the global BICYCLE MARKETS?" so we sort of answered that question. 

[bikeman564™]

47 minutes ago, maddmaxx said:

I'm holding on for Mongoose to make a return to real bike shops.

I had a californian, sweet ass bike

[dinneR ★]

39 minutes ago, Razors Edge said:

In our defense, the title of the video (and this thread) is "Will TREK survive TOTAL CHAOS in the global BICYCLE MARKETS?" so we sort of answered that question. 

I used his title. He did it to get your attention. You did not watch the video did you?

[Razors Edge ★]

9 minutes ago, dinneR said:

I used his title. He did it to get your attention. You did not watch the video did you?

There was a video? 

[dinneR ★]

5 minutes ago, Razors Edge said:

There was a video? 

Ignorance is bliss. Your emojis are still dumb.

[Parsnip Totin Jack ★]

I did and agree with his assessment. I worked part time at an independently owned bike shop. I learned a lot there. I also worked at a Trek store in Cincinnati and when Trek bought out the independently owned shops in VA. The Trek culture, In my experience, is crap. Customers are seen as wallets to be fleeced not real people. The bike shop that I worked at, stressed creating relationships with customers that welcomed them. Trek is more about selling products. Their training and shop marketing materials stressed this over and over. Trek kulture is why I quit. 

[Longjohn ★]

7 hours ago, maddmaxx said:

I'm holding on for Mongoose to make a return to real bike shops.

I bought a Walgoose, didn’t know enough about bikes to know it wasn’t a real Mongoose. I rode it into the ground and got my money’s worth before I started buying Treks. 
I never want to become that regular guy wearing jeans and a tee shirt riding an upright bike to the flea market.

The guy in the video set the bar really low, sell cheap “regular” bikes to people who will ride them to the flea market a couple times and then leave them to rot in their garage or basement.

I don’t race but I consider myself a cyclist. I never want to go back to a “regular bike.

[Razors Edge ★]

10 hours ago, Longjohn said:

I bought a Walgoose, didn’t know enough about bikes to know it wasn’t a real Mongoose. I rode it into the ground and got my money’s worth before I started buying Treks. 
I never want to become that regular guy wearing jeans and a tee shirt riding an upright bike to the flea market.

The guy in the video set the bar really low, sell cheap “regular” bikes to people who will ride them to the flea market a couple times and then leave them to rot in their garage or basement.

I don’t race but I consider myself a cyclist. I never want to go back to a “regular bike.

Gotta agree, but I do think the MAMIL (or even MAMI cycling clothing) are a nice "target" for both sales but also hipster anger?  IOW, maybe you and I are suckers for wanting good/high quality bikes that let us zoom around when we want?  Maybe we missed the point, and life is best enjoyed at 6mph vs cruising the countryside at 10, 20, 30+ mph on "fancy bikes"?

I'm more a fan of all sorts of bikes for all sorts of people, but if my nice bike keeps Trek, Spec, Shimano, SRAM, Michelin, and Continental interested in making and innovating in the bike industry, I'm all for it.  I'll keep buying bikes as long as I'm riding, and hopefully they're of the "can't wait to go for a ride" variety often sold by the likes of Trek. 

16 hours ago, Parsnip Totin Jack said:

Trek kulture is why I quit. 

Yeah - that's more the point of Trek or Spec or other brands where they go from being a focused "bike manufacturer" to spreading their brand across the whole market and into the actual control of the LBS system.  This MAY be an American thing - ie Trek only shops and Spec only shops - filled with Trek or Spec branded bikes, apparel, helmets, accessories - and a shop that can only really order Trek/Spec stuff or service well the Trek/Spec crowd?  

When on vacation, I try to pop into local bike shops.  It's still hard to gauge if the brand owned LBS trend is cropping up in Europe or not, but I do see a lot of truly local and small LBS still.  I also see Decathlon stores all over, so the "big" guys are growing and will put pressure on the bike companies without direct lines to consumer sales.

[maddmaxx ★]

Except for niche markets they will all be replaced by e-bikes anyway.  Plastic bikes and electric shifting have priced themselves out of the reach of common man.

IMO the hay day of bicycle building was back when I could purchase 3 Haro frames for $49 each and build a bike around each using NOS and sell them at cost to friends.  After that came Leader frames at higher prices.  All of these were aluminium frames from Taiwan or their mainland factories.

[Razors Edge ★]

1 minute ago, maddmaxx said:

Except for niche markets they will all be replaced by e-bikes anyway.

In once sense, road, gravel, and MTB already ARE niche markets.   

I got a chuckle about the podcaster's contention that in the Armstrong era, "cool folks" were making business deals on bike rides, not on a golf course.   Even at the apex of the LA bike craze, it was negligible compared to folks doing other stuff like watching TV or playing soccer or mowing their lawns. 

[dinneR ★]

15 hours ago, Longjohn said:

I bought a Walgoose, didn’t know enough about bikes to know it wasn’t a real Mongoose. I rode it into the ground and got my money’s worth before I started buying Treks. 
I never want to become that regular guy wearing jeans and a tee shirt riding an upright bike to the flea market.

The guy in the video set the bar really low, sell cheap “regular” bikes to people who will ride them to the flea market a couple times and then leave them to rot in their garage or basement.

I don’t race but I consider myself a cyclist. I never want to go back to a “regular bike.

I think you watched a different video. He didn't say or suggest any of those things.

He has some really nice bikes in his collection and rides a lot. He's more of a randonneuring kind of rider.

[Razors Edge ★]

My wife is a "regular rider" on a "regular bike".  I'd peg her bike use in the top 5% here (the Cafe) and maybe higher than that for the US as a whole.  

I am the guy who maintains her bike. In 30+ years, her total contribution (bike, parts, maintenance, clothing) to the bike industry (it's a Trek) is UNDER $1,000.  So, about $30/yr from a top 5% regular rider.  

I'm a "cycling enthusiast" on a variety of "nice" bikes. I'm in the 5% here and higher than that in the US.  My outlay is well into the tens of thousands of dollars. Well over $1,000 a year - especially when you factor in ALL the related cycling costs - nutrition, bike events, cycling related travel, etc.. - which might take it to several thousands a year.

It takes a LOT of "regular riders" to make up for one of me.  I can't see Trek dumping their "enthusiast" core for simply more "regular riders on regular bikes".  

If they can balance it so the "whales" keep things in business for the "minnows", that's good, but flipping to a model that relies on the fickle "average" American might be tough.  Trek wasn't burned by the enthusiasts leaving the sport, they were burned by trusting that the new COVID "regular riders" were going to keep riding and buying post-COVID.  Didn't happen.  If they're lucky, some of those fickle regular riders will REMAIN regular riders and won't dump their bikes in the basement for another decade or two.

[dinneR ★]

28 minutes ago, Razors Edge said:

My wife is a "regular rider" on a "regular bike".  I'd peg her bike use in the top 5% here (the Cafe) and maybe higher than that for the US as a whole.  

I am the guy who maintains her bike. In 30+ years, her total contribution (bike, parts, maintenance, clothing) to the bike industry (it's a Trek) is UNDER $1,000.  So, about $30/yr from a top 5% regular rider.  

I'm a "cycling enthusiast" on a variety of "nice" bikes. I'm in the 5% here and higher than that in the US.  My outlay is well into the tens of thousands of dollars. Well over $1,000 a year - especially when you factor in ALL the related cycling costs - nutrition, bike events, cycling related travel, etc.. - which might take it to several thousands a year.

It takes a LOT of "regular riders" to make up for one of me.  I can't see Trek dumping their "enthusiast" core for simply more "regular riders on regular bikes".  

If they can balance it so the "whales" keep things in business for the "minnows", that's good, but flipping to a model that relies on the fickle "average" American might be tough.  Trek wasn't burned by the enthusiasts leaving the sport, they were burned by trusting that the new COVID "regular riders" were going to keep riding and buying post-COVID.  Didn't happen.  If they're lucky, some of those fickle regular riders will REMAIN regular riders and won't dump their bikes in the basement for another decade or two.

I don't think anyone is suggesting that Trek or Specialized or anyone flip their business model, but certainly right size it. Trek and Specialized had both become notorious for pressuring dealers to give more floor space to their products. Specialized pushed Cannondale out of Erik's. 

The Bikefarmer isn't anti-big bike company. He's a Giant dealer. He rides really nice bikes. I think two are Rivendells. You watched the video Sheepherder posted. That's kind of his point. Regular bikes for regular people. Rivendell embodies that.

[Razors Edge ★]

6 minutes ago, dinneR said:

I don't think anyone is suggesting that Trek or Specialized or anyone flip their business model, but certainly right size it.

Well, duh??? Trek and the cycling industry as a whole OVERPRODUCED due to COVID.  Some are failing and some are "right sizing" to suit the times.  I don't think any bike company or any LBS is trying to expand their offerings right now. Pare down the product lines and focus on what got you to the dance in the first place.     Isn't that what Trek is doing?  I do think Parsnip's issue & experience with Trek dealerships is a good commentary about them. I am not a fan of the one brand only dealerships which have been popping up more and more over the last decade, so if this bike glut causes them to reconsider being a standalone brand in all the US markets, that will be a good thing.

[dinneR ★]

3 minutes ago, Razors Edge said:

Well, duh??? Trek and the cycling industry as a whole OVERPRODUCED due to COVID.  Some are failing and some are "right sizing" to suit the times.  I don't think any bike company or any LBS is trying to expand their offerings right now. Pare down the product lines and focus on what got you to the dance in the first place.     Isn't that what Trek is doing?  I do think Parsnip's issue & experience with Trek dealerships is a good commentary about them. I am not a fan of the one brand only dealerships which have been popping up more and more over the last decade, so if this bike glut causes them to reconsider being a standalone brand in all the US markets, that will be a good thing.

And this is the point.

Your emojis are still dumb.

[Razors Edge ★]

4 minutes ago, dinneR said:

And this is the point.

Your emojis are still dumb.

Weird. That's a LONG video for him to state, "Trek's making the right moves to reposition themselves after the COVID era screwed up bike usage."  

It ain't rocket science, but it does require appreciating the once in a lifetime disruption of the supply chain and the shutdown & WFH era that happened.  Seems bike manufacturers misread the tea leaves  and I wonder if we can review this guy's Nostradamus-like power to have predicted all that way back in March 2020!  He probably sticks out like a sore thumb telling bike companies to reduce, not increase, production to meet demand so that they would have to do that 4 yrs later instead.  

[shootingstar]

I haven't seen the video yet.

 

Around folks who haven't cycled in decades or wonder why would anyone spend over $1,500+ on a bike, I often focus on the fact that a bike must fit a person properly with reasonable (doesn't have to be very expensive) parts with enough gear shifts to make a ride more enjoyable and motivating over time.  Also to let person know, it's learning how to use gear shifts well.  That's all I say to them. I don't talk about cycling clothing. Sure the helmet thing.

The point of having more people bike more often /people who are sitting on the fence about cycling, is a bike that fits them, parts that will last and a bike they must recognize it needs to be locked up (if it's any decent bike at all) wherever they go. It is NOT about a precious bike that you seldom lock because it doesn't look cool to carry a lock or whatever.  We have to get rid of that elitist thinking among carbon bike cyclists.  It's so far removed from most people's reality. (Even mine.)

[dinneR ★]

42 minutes ago, Razors Edge said:

Weird. That's a LONG video for him to state, "Trek's making the right moves to reposition themselves after the COVID era screwed up bike usage."  

It ain't rocket science, but it does require appreciating the once in a lifetime disruption of the supply chain and the shutdown & WFH era that happened.  Seems bike manufacturers misread the tea leaves  and I wonder if we can review this guy's Nostradamus-like power to have predicted all that way back in March 2020!  He probably sticks out like a sore thumb telling bike companies to reduce, not increase, production to meet demand so that they would have to do that 4 yrs later instead.  

You really can be hard to take. And your emojis just get dumber and dumber.