Dottleshead ★ Posted March 28 Share #1 Posted March 28 You agree that whichever party lands in office, that the stock market will surge or at least rise steadily for like 6 months after the election? Try to keep the politics out of it (SW thanks you) but historically the market seems to go a little higher out of the gate when a Republican wins (is this true? that's been my perception anyway). What say thee? Is next fall and early 2025 lining up to be a boom in the market? I bet inflation eases and they cut rates. It's looking almost like perfect alignment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2Far ★ Posted March 28 Share #2 Posted March 28 Jeez, I hope so. 401(k) is up 5.91% this year, and I'm in "conservative" funds. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dinneR ★ Posted March 28 Share #3 Posted March 28 https://www.usbank.com/investing/financial-perspectives/market-news/how-presidential-elections-affect-the-stock-market.html The analysis points to minimal impact on financial market performance in the medium to long term based on potential election outcomes. The data also shows that market returns are typically more dependent on economic and inflation trends rather than election results. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wilbur ★ Posted March 28 Share #4 Posted March 28 I predict Canada's will boom after the 2025 election. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dottleshead ★ Posted March 28 Author Share #5 Posted March 28 That links posts this interesting chart. Looks like a 3 month bump in good years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dottleshead ★ Posted March 28 Author Share #6 Posted March 28 1 minute ago, Wilbur said: I predict Canada's will boom after the 2025 election. Why? Oh that's right. Never mind and carry on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Razors Edge ★ Posted March 28 Share #7 Posted March 28 37 minutes ago, Dottleshead said: at least rise steadily for like 6 months after the election? That's sort of the window for "trouble", so markets might be disrupted. As with all things out of our individual control, not much you can do other than decide how to hedge your bets. The "how" is hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dottleshead ★ Posted March 28 Author Share #8 Posted March 28 4 minutes ago, Razors Edge said: That's sort of the window for "trouble", so markets might be disrupted. As with all things out of our individual control, not much you can do other than decide how to hedge your bets. The "how" is hard. I opened this thread with you in mind. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
12string Posted March 28 Share #9 Posted March 28 34 minutes ago, Dottleshead said: That links posts this interesting chart. Looks like a 3 month bump in good years. Just sos you know, we're in the "rising growth/falling inflation" cycle. While the election itself doesn't impact markets, I could tell you which candidate will continue this cycle and which one will make a complete mess of it, but SW won't like it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Razors Edge ★ Posted March 28 Share #10 Posted March 28 4 minutes ago, Dottleshead said: I opened this thread with you in mind. One hopes/wishes for a rational, sane election. Clearly, that's not a given anymore. I don't know that folks really realize how fragile an economy can be, nor how devastating a civil war ALWAYS is. Those are nor "worst" case scenarios anymore. Those are sadly "possible" scenarios with the worst case ones far scarier (but luckily far more unlikely). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dottleshead ★ Posted March 28 Author Share #11 Posted March 28 Just now, 12string said: I could tell you which candidate will continue this cycle and which one will make a complete mess of it, but SW won't like it Yeah let's not go there, 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dottleshead ★ Posted March 28 Author Share #12 Posted March 28 2 minutes ago, Razors Edge said: One hopes/wishes for a rational, sane election. Clearly, that's not a given anymore. I don't know that folks really realize how fragile an economy can be, nor how devastating a civil war ALWAYS is. Those are nor "worst" case scenarios anymore. Those are sadly "possible" scenarios with the worst case ones far scarier (but luckily far more unlikely). Get your escape valve open. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Longjohn ★ Posted March 28 Share #13 Posted March 28 I’m not much of a gambler. My mutual funds lost more than half my money in 2008. I switched funds and they have been doing great since. I just took out enough cash to buy Judie a birthday present. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dottleshead ★ Posted March 28 Author Share #14 Posted March 28 2 minutes ago, Longjohn said: I just took out enough cash to buy Judie a birthday present. You’re a good man. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bikeman564™ Posted March 28 Share #15 Posted March 28 I made a lot of money during the last administration 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
12string Posted March 29 Share #16 Posted March 29 A lot of investors did. Then lost it. Then made more 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wilbur ★ Posted March 29 Share #17 Posted March 29 Never trust a government that redefines "recession" to avoid being in one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
12string Posted March 29 Share #18 Posted March 29 13 minutes ago, Wilbur said: Never trust a government that redefines "recession" to avoid being in one. Who did that? Sri Lanka? China? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maddmaxx ★ Posted March 29 Share #19 Posted March 29 It is very difficult to make predictions, especially of the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Razors Edge ★ Posted March 29 Share #20 Posted March 29 4 minutes ago, maddmaxx said: It is very difficult to make predictions, especially of the future. No it isn't! It's very difficult to make ACCURATE predictions of the future. Check out my NCAA bracket for proof! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
12string Posted March 29 Share #21 Posted March 29 13 minutes ago, maddmaxx said: It is very difficult to make predictions, especially of the future. I knew you were going to say that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dottleshead ★ Posted March 29 Author Share #22 Posted March 29 27 minutes ago, 12string said: I knew you were going to say that. I think @maddmaxx is right though when it comes to the market. Nobody knows what the hell is really going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wilbur ★ Posted March 29 Share #23 Posted March 29 14 minutes ago, Dottleshead said: I think @maddmaxx is right though when it comes to the market. Nobody knows what the hell is really going on. I know enough to stay out it these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dottleshead ★ Posted March 29 Author Share #24 Posted March 29 7 minutes ago, Wilbur said: I know enough to stay out it these days. I wish I could be in your position. If I want to get to your position (well comfortable that is) I need to play. At least I am well diversified. But I expect the world to fall apart soon and the market to crash and maybe some good folks will lose their lives. And it probably will recover and one day go higher than it's ever been -- but I'll also probably be dead. It's all timing Wilbur. I'm just not sure my generation has good timing. But like was said, it's hard to predict. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dottleshead ★ Posted March 29 Author Share #25 Posted March 29 So is the DJ going to break 40,000 today or next week? Last I checked it was 39,800+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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