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Sometimes I am very happy to be out of equities.


Wilbur
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9 minutes ago, maddmaxx said:

I know a lot of soon to be retirees who have been treating their 401 like a winning streak at the casino that will never end.  We warned them that older folks should keep an eye toward safety not the maximum growth risk stocks.

It's good advice.  I probably wouldn't consider taking them out of the growth status until about 5 years prior to retirement.  My nest egg is not where I need it to be.  If this rebounds and the old law of doubling your growth every 7 years holds true, I'll be ok.  If not, I'll be sorta ok.  If not not, screw it.  A nursing home sounds great.

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Just now, Dottles said:

It's good advice.  I probably wouldn't consider taking them out of the growth status until about 5 years prior to retirement.  My nest egg is not where I need it to be.  If this rebounds and the old law of doubling your growth every 7 years holds true, I'll be ok.  If not, I'll be sorta ok.  If not not, screw it.  A nursing home sounds great.

Who's going to pay for the nursing home?

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I'm in that no-mans land between "retiring is a long way off" and "retiring soon".  I have been moving funds from equities into bonds.  It sucked watching stocks values increase while bonds languished.  I'm seeing the value in bonds now.  

As for all the big financial news today, oil, corona, Japan.  I think Japan's 7% economic contraction during the pre-virus 4th quarter is what is weighing on the market the most today.  In my opinion, Investors see that and are uneasy about how it will effect the US. 

Unless you live in an oil producing state or make a living in the oil industry, lower oil prices should result in lower gas prices.  That should mean more money in the wallet.  My understanding is that much of US oil comes from shale which is expensive produce.  With lower crude oil prices, those fields will be closed and people laid off.  I feel for them.

As far as corona goes, I don't think anyone really knows how it will effect the economy.  The lack of leadership in the national response isn't giving investors any good feels though.

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4 minutes ago, Mr. Silly said:

I'm in that no-mans land between "retiring is a long way off" and "retiring soon".  I have been moving funds from equities into bonds.  It sucked watching stocks values increase while bonds languished.  I'm seeing the value in bonds now.  

As for all the big financial news today, oil, corona, Japan.  I think Japan's 7% economic contraction during the pre-virus 4th quarter is what is weighing on the market the most today.  In my opinion, Investors see that and are uneasy about how it will effect the US. 

Unless you live in an oil producing state or make a living in the oil industry, lower oil prices should result in lower gas prices.  That should mean more money in the wallet.  My understanding is that much of US oil comes from shale which is expensive produce.  With lower crude oil prices, those fields will be closed and people laid off.  I feel for them.

As far as corona goes, I don't think anyone really knows how it will effect the economy.  The lack of leadership in the national response isn't giving investors any good feels though.

<nods>

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I'm down 11.5% on the year right now vs down 14.9% for the S&P 500. Of course, last year I was up 22% and I expect up years to continue to outdo down years over the long-term.  I don't expect to need my stock's money before a decade and I have enough in bonds and CD's to pay for all or most of the upgrades I'll do to my house when it is rebuilt.  My guess is that when I hit my 80's -or before it I get tired of keeping up a house with a lawn- I'm likely to sell my house and move into a retirement assisted living community where my total costs exceed my income and my savings will be tapped.  As I approach that day, I'll start moving money out of stocks.

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1 hour ago, maddmaxx said:

I know a lot of soon to be retirees who have been treating their 401 like a winning streak at the casino that will never end.  We warned them that older folks should keep an eye toward safety not the maximum growth risk stocks.

I'm in that group. We moved our money into safer investments starting a few years ago. We could have made more money but we could have lost a lot more if we waited too long. 

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7 minutes ago, MickinMD said:

Even though I'm retired, I still make automatic stock purchases of a couple hundred a month.  Right now, stocks are cheap.

I also pay myself back for buying my last car and for saving for the next by adding to CD's.

Look, I realize you are without home but you sure could be doing this feller a big favor by picking up my car loan.  Thanks.

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1 hour ago, maddmaxx said:

treating their 401 like a winning streak at the casino

About a year ago, I switched my 401K strategy to be ultra conservative. I haven't lost any money today.  For many years, I just let the 401K ride on the riskiest fund in our companies list ofchoices.   Others at work would try to time the market, and they generally learned that doesn't work very well, expecially if you don't understand the market and pay attention.   My wife... she didn't like my plan.  I'll guess her 401K will be down today.

Back in the 80s, the guy sitting next to me at work (same job) drove a new BMW 5 series car on the job.  He wrote a check to pay for the car, and he had 12 children.  I drove a Chevy Citation, and probably had a car loan then.   Finally one day he told me, he studies the stock market a LOT.  It was (if memory serves) the fall of 87, and he told me he buys 'puts' on stock in fall expecting the market to tank and it did.  He was upset, because if he would have held the puts for 1 more day, he would have made about 100K more.     Once his wife called me.  She asked me to please tell her husband to change the withholding for his federal tax back to normal.   I asked him about that, and he told me 100% of his pay check was going to the IRS.  I asked why? He explained that in early November he made that change so he would't need to pay a penalty to the IRS.    I said.. but Bob, it's late February.  He says, yeah I forgot to switch the withholding back to normal at the end of the year.   I asked him to add opt me..  he didn't. 

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5 hours ago, Bikeguy said:

About a year ago, I switched my 401K strategy to be ultra conservative. I haven't lost any money today.  For many years, I just let the 401K ride on the riskiest fund in our companies list ofchoices.   Others at work would try to time the market, and they generally learned that doesn't work very well, expecially if you don't understand the market and pay attention.   My wife... she didn't like my plan.  I'll guess her 401K will be down today.

Back in the 80s, the guy sitting next to me at work (same job) drove a new BMW 5 series car on the job.  He wrote a check to pay for the car, and he had 12 children.  

I have never in my life, met someone with so many children plus a nice car. I guess they had a van somewhere.

 

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