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Square Wheels Cycling

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There appear to be some curiosities in the data patterns, which I'd guess have to do with how the data is being collected and tallied rather than the data itself, but I'd be interested in the real reason(s):

 

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Throughout the graph there seems to be a 'sawtooth' pattern that's consistent over nearly the entire time period, almost as if the cases start lower on a Monday, increase through to Friday or Saturday, then drop on Sunday.  Maybe there are fewer pieces of data being collected or entered on Sunday.  Or maybe people are partying like animals on Saturdays and Sundays and their symptoms gradually exhibit themselves as the week goes on, culminating on Thursdays or Fridays.

The other curious trend seems to be a deep dip on one day followed by a spike the next or soon after.  It seems odd that the virus would take a day off, so that's why I'd consider fewer cases are being entered/documented on those days, with the backlog being made up on the following day(s).

The important thing is, of course, the long term trend, which tends to cancel out or diminish any anomalies in the short term data collection and reporting.

I'd be particularly interested in MickinMD's thoughts about the data patterns, and would like to kindly ask if he would offer his opinions.

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12 minutes ago, Thaddeus Kosciuszko said:

 

There appear to be some curiosities in the data patterns, which I'd guess have to do with how the data is being collected and tallied rather than the data itself, but I'd be interested in the real reason(s):

 

image.png.3b37b33a1e55eab7365171230934f9c1.png

 

Throughout the graph there seems to be a 'sawtooth' pattern that's consistent over nearly the entire time period, almost as if the cases start lower on a Monday, increase through to Friday or Saturday, then drop on Sunday.  Maybe there are fewer pieces of data being collected or entered on Sunday.  Or maybe people are partying like animals on Saturdays and Sundays and their symptoms gradually exhibit themselves as the week goes on, culminating on Thursdays or Fridays.

The other curious trend seems to be a deep dip on one day followed by a spike the next or soon after.  It seems odd that the virus would take a day off, so that's why I'd consider fewer cases are being entered/documented on those days, with the backlog being made up on the following day(s).

The important thing is, of course, the long term trend, which tends to cancel out or diminish any anomalies in the short term data collection and reporting.

I'd be particularly interested in MickinMD's thoughts about the data patterns, and would like to kindly ask if he would offer his opinions.

I believe that they determined that weekend data lags in reporting, not in fact.

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The sawtooth pattern is mostly because of the number of tests given per day, which drops on the weekends. The data is also based on the dates the cases are reported which are often NOT on the dates the cases were determined.  Reporting in batches on certain days of the week can also contribute to a regular rise and fall.

Here is Maryland's graph for the number of tests recorded per day and there's the sawtooth pattern in the number of tests alone:

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I noticed the pattern some time ago on US and other countries data.

Here's Maryland's graph of deaths on the day deaths occurred, not when they were reported and, of course, there's no "workweek" to consider.  It's a lot more random:

image.png.e50774e402f4fb89a6f139f557df312b.png

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There are some experts that think up to 1/3 the population has had coronavirus and the big dropoff is due to some degree of "herd immunity" beginning to develop.

I hope so.  Here's the world's 10 most affected countries 7-day case average and, except for Brazil in its Summer, there rates have been dropping strongly everywhere, especially in the USA.  Fauci says that is enough people get vaccinated, we should be back to near-normal in the Fall.

image.png.178509307f59408d02bdeb531d675b5b.png

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Have we even gotten back down to the all so awful post holiday peaks of summer?  Good is relative.  We're not good.

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1 hour ago, MickinMD said:

There are some experts that think up to 1/3 the population has had coronavirus and the big dropoff is due to some degree of "herd immunity" beginning to develop.

I heard some "experts" discussing this on the radio a few days ago.  The theory seems to be that a large percentage of people have actually "had" Covid 19 but because they were relatively symptom free, they didn't know they had it and they didn't get tested.  So the actual number people who have had the virus is much higher than tests indicate, leading to the possibility of herd immunity.

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6 minutes ago, Square Wheels said:

 Now that's an interesting take on the virus.  I hadn't even thought about its prevalence in sewage from a city wide perspective, although it now seems intuitive.

I guess I need to spend more time with my mind in the gutter.

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I am still not clamoring to get the vaccine like most people in my area are, so if the incidence figures keep dropping, screw it.  :)

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Just now, Thaddeus Kosciuszko said:

 Now that's an interesting take on the virus.  I hadn't even thought about its prevalence in sewage from a city wide perspective, although it now seems intuitive.

I guess I need to spend more time with my mind in the gutter.

They have pre-covid data too.  Plus, the number of tests, % people tested, % people retested - all meaningless.  It's a reasonable measure.

It gives me a false sense of hope.  I still think the virus is just toying with us and the variants will wipe us all out.

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13 minutes ago, Thaddeus Kosciuszko said:

 Now that's an interesting take on the virus.  I hadn't even thought about its prevalence in sewage from a city wide perspective, although it now seems intuitive.

I guess I need to spend more time with my mind in the gutter.

I believe this is being used as a diagnostic in many places.  For example the University of Connecticut is capable of monitoring the waste water from individual dorm buildings leading to some advance notice that they may have a problem developing in one specific dorm.  This may and has led to quarantine and testing for everyone in the building.  They find cases without symptoms (but still infectious) that way.

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1 hour ago, Square Wheels said:

I still think the virus is just toying with us and the variants will wipe us all out.

I believe the earth's immune system has finally been activated and is seeking out to destroy the most terrible of infections, the Human Virus.  This virus refuses to restrict its own growth, so the earth must do something to reduce and/or end the Human Virus's rapid growth and eventual destruction of the planet.

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25 minutes ago, Thaddeus Kosciuszko said:

I saw this medical documentary where this CDC agent named Smith was running all over the place squelch a virus being spread by a patient zero, some guy named Neall, or something. 

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That Smith guy really got around.  He was everywhere.

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6 hours ago, Thaddeus Kosciuszko said:

which I'd guess have to do with how the data is being collected and tallied rather than the data itself

Here is the data from IIL.   There are always low numbers on the weekends.   I'm sure they get added to the count in the first few days of the week.

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NY is at 2.99% this morning, first time under three since before Thanksgiving.  We are recovering from the holiday spike in time to get ready for the spring break spike

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2 hours ago, Airehead said:

NY is at 2.99% this morning, first time under three since before Thanksgiving.  We are recovering from the holiday spike in time to get ready for the spring break spike

We had no real Thanksgiving spike (2 days of anomalous data) and a small Christmas/NY increase.  Our numbers (7 day average) has been trending down since November 21st with the small bump a week or so after NY Day.  Our highest number of cases per day using a 7 day average (smooths out the weekends) was 7,241 on November 21.  As of Saturday the 7 day average of new cases per day is 814.  That is the same as it was October 1st what case count were on their way up.  

 

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