Next Hurricane: Gulf of Mexico

[BuffJim]

Early next week. Not named yet, but has its eyes on landfall between Brownsville and New Orleans. Will provide updates when they become available. 

[donkpow]

It'll be a double whammy for Tennessee, then.

[BuffJim]

8 minutes ago, donkpow said:

It'll be a double whammy for Tennessee, then.

Quite possible 

[Razors Edge ★]

46 minutes ago, BuffJim said:

Early next week. Not named yet, but has its eyes on landfall between Brownsville and New Orleans. Will provide updates when they become available. 

Did we ever get a final read on Henri?  Seems a lot of pre-game talk, but no final analysis.

Seems the real weather craziness this weekend was down south with floods???

[BuffJim]

26 minutes ago, Razors Edge said:

Did we ever get a final read on Henri?  Seems a lot of pre-game talk, but no final analysis.

Seems the real weather craziness this weekend was down south with floods???

You are correct. There was minor flooding due to Henri, but Gigabytes of internet resources were wasted on Henri, that should have been devoted to the Humphreys County Tennessee floods, which killed 18 people - revised downwards from original reports of 22 deaths. 

[MickinMD ★]

1 hour ago, BuffJim said:

Early next week. Not named yet, but has its eyes on landfall between Brownsville and New Orleans. Will provide updates when they become available. 

I hate to see anyone get hit with a hurricane, but if we get one in the mid-Atlantic soon there will be terrible flooding because of all the rain in the past few weeks.

I mowed my lawn at 10 am yesterday morning, the 2nd day of no rain, and the ground was still so wet I had to go slow to keep the 6.75 hp motor from stalling.

[maddmaxx ★]

1 hour ago, Razors Edge said:

Did we ever get a final read on Henri?  Seems a lot of pre-game talk, but no final analysis.

Seems the real weather craziness this weekend was down south with floods???

I guess you didn't read the news.

New Jersey:  

Manchester CT:

Rhode Island:

More Rhode Island:

I assume that you are practicing to be a clueless method actor.

[Razors Edge ★]

59 minutes ago, maddmaxx said:

I assume that you are practicing to be a clueless method actor.

I go with BuffJim's analysis over yours!  BOOM!

[BuffJim]

1 hour ago, maddmaxx said:

I guess you didn't read the news.

New Jersey:  

Manchester CT:

Rhode Island:

More Rhode Island:

I assume that you are practicing to be a clueless method actor.

Maybe I could have worded it mostly minor flooding. Not even close to the damage Fred caused in the Northeast, with much less fanfare. 

[maddmaxx ★]

36 minutes ago, Razors Edge said:

I go with BuffJim's analysis over yours!  BOOM!

Buff Jim has some cred. You just flap gums.

[Razors Edge ★]

3 minutes ago, maddmaxx said:

Buff Jim has some cred. You just flap gums.

Which is why I go to HIM and not YOU for the weather stuff.  You're full of hyperbole, he's full of facts!

Jim FTW!

[Road Runner]

Early GFS models show it heading for Houston and then Dallas, maybe.

[BuffJim]

Dallas could use a good rainstorm to clean it up a bit. 
 

I just got a phone call from my Indian colleague in Houston. I thought it was from Ram, so I was chatting with him about the incoming Hurricane. Then I totally realized it wasn’t Ram, it was Hemant that I was chatting with. He lives in Houston, too. Boy did I feel like a chump. He lives in Katy, so he could be affected, too. 

[Razors Edge ★]

4 minutes ago, BuffJim said:

He lives in Houston, too. Boy did I feel like a chump. He lives in Katy, so he could be affected, too.

Like a main home and a vacation home?

[BuffJim]

I don’t think anyone would put a vacation home in Katy or Houston. 

[BuffJim]

New Orleans and just west of there are the current targets. How do I clear my cache?  Not letting me add anything bigger than 15kb

[Razors Edge ★]

1 hour ago, BuffJim said:

New Orleans and just west of there are the current targets. How do I clear my cache?  Not letting me add anything bigger than 15kb

Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in 
association with a broad area of low pressure located over the 
west-central Caribbean Sea about 150 miles south-southwest of 
Jamaica.  Environmental conditions remain conducive for additional
development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is 
expected to form later today or tonight while the system moves 
northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea, reaching the 
Cayman Islands tonight and western Cuba and the Yucatan Channel 
Friday and Friday night.  Given the recent developmental trends, 
Tropical Storm Warnings for the Cayman Islands and western Cuba 
could be required later this morning, and an Air Force Reserve 
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system 
this afternoon.  Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall 
and flooding are possible over portions of Jamaica and the Cayman 
Islands today and tonight, and will likely spread across Cuba 
and the Yucatan Peninsula on Friday. 

The system is expected to enter into the Gulf of Mexico Friday night 
and continue moving northwestward toward the central or northwestern 
U.S. Gulf coast, potentially bringing dangerous impacts from storm 
surge, wind, and heavy rainfall to portions of the coasts of Texas, 
Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle by Sunday 
and Monday.  However, uncertainty in the system's exact track and 
intensity remains large since the low is just beginning to form.  
Interests in these areas should closely monitor the progress of this 
system and ensure they have their hurricane plans in place.  
Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can 
be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather 
Service.    
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[BuffJim]

Figured it out

[Road Runner]

Looks like Texas dodged the bullet.

[Randomguy]

22 hours ago, maddmaxx said:

New Jersey:

That is just normal NJ sewage flowing like it always does.

[BuffJim]

Twitter is going bananas, comparing Hurricane Ida to Hurricane Camille. This is way more interesting than Henri. 

[Razors Edge ★]

48 minutes ago, BuffJim said:

Twitter is going bananas, comparing Hurricane Ida to Hurricane Camille. This is way more interesting than Henri. 

All this makes no sense to me.  Ida? Camille?  Should we know those names?

[BuffJim]

25 minutes ago, Razors Edge said:

All this makes no sense to me.  Ida? Camille?  Should we know those names?

Yes. Ida is the soon to be name of the Hurricane that is aimed at Louisiana right now. Camille was a Category 5 monster that made landfall just east of New Orleans in 1969. 

[BuffJim]

Now forecast to be Cat 3 at landfall. Could be a disaster for New Orleans. 

[maddmaxx ★]

Has someone been drawing on that map with a sharpie?

[BuffJim]

1 hour ago, maddmaxx said:

Has someone been drawing on that map with a sharpie?

Just the Cubans. Playing with their new toy. 

[BuffJim]

Now officially a Hurricane. My hunch is that the path will shift East. A small shift East would be a disaster for New Orleans. A large shift East would be their saving grace. 

[Razors Edge ★]

22 minutes ago, BuffJim said:

Now officially a Hurricane. My hunch is that the path will shift East. A small shift East would be a disaster for New Orleans. A large shift East would be their saving grace. 

So should I worry about this one or is it another nothing burger like @maddmaxx's one?

[BuffJim]

Cheeseburger with bacon. At least. 

[Razors Edge ★]

26 minutes ago, BuffJim said:

Cheeseburger with bacon. At least. 

Good to know!  Tired of the hype-fest ones.

[Randomguy]

LA should just permanently vacate the state, they are always getting hit with natural disasters.

[Razors Edge ★]

9 minutes ago, Randomguy said:

LA should just permanently vacate the state, they are always getting hit with natural disasters.

Lance leave Colorado? He already left Texas! Jeebus, stop hounding the guy!!!

[Randomguy]

17 minutes ago, Razors Edge said:

Lance leave Colorado? He already left Texas! Jeebus, stop hounding the guy!!!

Aspen is full of people like Lance, he is at home with them.

[Razors Edge ★]

1 minute ago, Randomguy said:

Aspen is full of people like Lance, he is at home with them.

He seems more a Jackson sort of guy, but Aspen did look fun in Dumb and Dumber. 

 

[BuffJim]

No dramatic changes overnight. Mayor of New Orleans said they weren’t going to instate the contra flow traffic patterns to help people evacuate. Reckless decision in my opinion. 

[Razors Edge ★]

2 hours ago, BuffJim said:

No dramatic changes overnight. Mayor of New Orleans said they weren’t going to instate the contra flow traffic patterns to help people evacuate. Reckless decision in my opinion. 

My guess would be that the mayor hadn't seen any significant bottlenecks/traffic jams yet leaving the area?  If folks are choosing to stay, I would likely hold off on the contra flow until an evacuation order was in place or significant volume was observed.  But hopefully, the road crews are ready to implement it ASAP if needed!

[BuffJim]

2 hours ago, Razors Edge said:

My guess would be that the mayor hadn't seen any significant bottlenecks/traffic jams yet leaving the area?  If folks are choosing to stay, I would likely hold off on the contra flow until an evacuation order was in place or significant volume was observed.  But hopefully, the road crews are ready to implement it ASAP if needed!

5 hour traffic to go just a few miles just east of there on I-10. I’d be a nervous wreck stuck in traffic 

[Road Runner]

19 minutes ago, BuffJim said:

5 hour traffic to go just a few miles just east of there on I-10. I’d be a nervous wreck stuck in traffic 

I saw the slow crawl on the Weather Channel this morning.  I think I might wait and try leaving at like 2 or 3 AM.  

[BuffJim]

I would have left yesterday. 

[Road Runner]

If you have no relatives or friends to stay with, the earlier you leave the better, since finding a hotel vacancy will be very difficult.  The longer you wait, the further you will have to drive.

[BuffJim]

Strong Cat 4 just before landfall. Just shy of Cat 5. The issue with Katrina was the failed levee. They’ve improved the levees since then, but this is a more intense storm. We shall see. 🙏🙏🙏

[Ralphie ★]

9 minutes ago, BuffJim said:

Strong Cat 4 just before landfall. Just shy of Cat 5. The issue with Katrina was the failed levee. They’ve improved the levees since then, but this is a more intense storm. We shall see. 🙏🙏🙏

More intense than Katrina? 

[BuffJim]

Essentially worst case scenario. Katrina may have been larger, which is a bigger deal than people give credit for. Katrina was a weakening Cat 3. Ida is a strengthening Cat 4. Today is DDay  

 

[Ralphie ★]

Poor Louisiana. Life in the target zone. 

[Razors Edge ★]

21 hours ago, Road Runner said:

I saw the slow crawl on the Weather Channel this morning.  I think I might wait and try leaving at like 2 or 3 AM.  

Is it contra-flow yet?  If not, that's a pretty big error. 

25 minutes ago, Philander Seabury said:

Poor Louisiana. Life in the target zone. 

Yep. Poor folks are the ones that seem to 1) stay put and 2) have few options to prepare ahead or recover afterwards.

 

21 hours ago, Road Runner said:

If you have no relatives or friends to stay with, the earlier you leave the better, since finding a hotel vacancy will be very difficult.  The longer you wait, the further you will have to drive.

Remember, too, that one big issue with cities getting hit - especially poorer cities - is the lack of ability to "drive" (no car, car in poor repair, limited fuel, etc.) and then, obviously for the poorer folks, fewer options for affordable places to stay.  Cash on hand vs credit cards make things rough for poor folks.

[BuffJim]

Lots of crazy footage on Twitter. By tomorrow we’ll start to see the whole scope. It will be profound. New Orleans levees have been improved so the damage and death toll may not reach Katrina levels (1600 deaths and $149 Billion in damage)  But still a powerful storm.

 

[BuffJim]

 

 

[BuffJim]

Weather Channel’s nonstop coverage is really good, too. 

[BuffJim]

The storm has also slowed its forward motion, and changed from northwest to west path earlier than expected. Not good news for New Orleans. Still has 130mph peak sustained winds. 

[shootingstar]

42 minutes ago, BuffJim said:

Lots of crazy footage on Twitter. By tomorrow we’ll start to see the whole scope. It will be profound. New Orleans levees have been improved so the damage and death toll may not reach Katrina levels (1600 deaths and $149 Billion in damage)  But still a powerful storm.

 

A good local friend here in town, actually went down to help out post-Katrina.  For her, it was exposure to areas of poverty in the area.  

She is on the staff network in our organization for disaster and emergency planning response.  We have 200 staff that volunteer in addition to their regular full time jobs.  The network was very critical to mobilize when we had river flood that resulted in 100,000 people evacuation. including self.

It's actually stunning what disaster response staff had to do in fast velocity.  Hopefully New Orleans municipal staff are gearing up...maybe with feds or state level.