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Average Rainfall ?


ChrisL
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On the news today they were talking about the latest storm and our average rainfall.  It got me to thinking that our avg rainfall number hasn’t ever changed that I recall.

Now the odd thing to me is we have had decades of drought followed by one or two years of avg rainfall followed by another decade of drought during my lifetime.  I get we are looking at 150 years of data and avg numbers will move gradually the more data collected but I gotta think the past 30 years has gotta move the needle some.

This season should be the first year in about 10 years we will be above the “average”.

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1 minute ago, bikeman564™ said:

Not sure aboot our rain/snow but I heard on the news that the great lake levels will be up this year :)

There is a reservoir that is no longer fed by any mountain run off due to development.  The county bought the land 20 years ago and turned it into a nature park which I ride often as it links to another trail system.

This reservoir has been bone dry for the past few years, the only time I have ever seen it completely dry and I have been going there since the early 70’s.  I’m curious to see how full it is after our storms. 

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27 minutes ago, ChrisL said:

On the news today they were talking about the latest storm and our average rainfall.  It got me to thinking that our avg rainfall number hasn’t ever changed that I recall.

Now the odd thing to me is we have had decades of drought followed by one or two years of avg rainfall followed by another decade of drought during my lifetime.  I get we are looking at 150 years of data and avg numbers will move gradually the more data collected but I gotta think the past 30 years has gotta move the needle some.

This season should be the first year in about 10 years we will be above the “average”.

Yep - how do they set the average? All 140 years?  It seems like using all those years would not move the average needle much any single year, but over a decade or so, that should surely change it to some noticeable amount. 

chart_rainfall_LA_1887_2018.thumb.jpg.f4766d9a4995135924ad0786c45bdaff.jpg

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Just now, Further said:

It seems that we have a fairly high daily average around here lately  I'm sick of rain  :unhappy:

We are in the midst of a very wet winter and are having yet another rain storm.  I’ve lost track but we have been getting at least one good soaking a week since January.  Today’s is one of the heavier storms to hit us this year. 

Im getting a little tired of the rain too but beggars can’t be choosers... We need a good soaking every few years.

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At the end of last year CT had risen above the previous 5th wettest year in recorded weather history.  Since then it's been even wetter.  My yard is a lake under snow and it will probably be July before we stop sinking ankle deep in mud.  All the underground chipmunk and mole tunnels have collapsed and the grass has drowned.

 

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3 hours ago, ChrisL said:

Now the odd thing to me is we have had decades of drought followed by one or two years of avg rainfall followed by another decade of drought during my lifetime.

So, looking over the data (from my link) for LA, it looks like 15 of the last 30 years have been WELL below average, and 5 of those 15 were WELL above average. 10 years were "meh".  Anyway, if you folks got ZERO precipitation for the next ten years(!), that would only drop the average from 14.7" to 13.7".  Half average for 10 years only dips it from 14.7" to 14.2", and if the ten lowest years on record are repeated, it goes from 14.7" to 14.1" average.

In other words, the past 140 years is really a strong prevention to your average going any where to far from the current 14.7".

But, from the "my lifetime" measure, your 10yr (10.8"), 20yr (12.2"), 30yr (13.6"), and 50yr (14.5") averages are clearly showing a VERY bad trend, though :(

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1 minute ago, Razors Edge said:

So, looking over the data (from my link) for LA, it looks like 15 of the last 30 years have been WELL below average, and 5 of those 15 were WELL above average. 10 years were "meh".  Anyway, if you folks got ZERO precipitation for the next ten years(!), that would only drop the average from 14.7" to 13.7".  Half average for 10 years only dips it from 14.7" to 14.2", and if the ten lowest years on record are repeated, it goes from 14.7" to 14.1" average.

In other words, the past 140 years is really a strong prevention to your average going any where to far from the current 14.7".

But, from the "my lifetime" measure, your 10yr (10.8"), 20yr (12.2"), 30yr (13.6"), and 50yr (14.5") averages are clearly showing a VERY bad trend, though :(

Thanks for the data analysis!  I suppose it supports my observation in that from my recollection we are trending below the average.

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