War has broken out in Israel

[BuffJim]

While you were sleeping, 5000 missiles rained down on Israel, and Hamas terrorists went on a killing spree. Videos are horrific. Buckle your chinstraps. 

[Wilbur ★]

10 minutes ago, BuffJim said:

While you were sleeping, 5000 missiles rained down on Israel, and Hamas terrorists went on a killing spree. Videos are horrific. Buckle your chinstraps. 

It will creep.  Maybe quickly. 

[MickinMD ★]

Bad but could be worse.

40 Israelis killed. Update: now 11 am EDT, CNN is saying at least 70 Israelis dead, more than 900 wounded.

Dozens of Israeli soldiers and citizens have been captured and taken hostage into Gaza.

198 Palestinians killed in counterattack.

Israel says it is "at war with Hamas."

Israel is calling up tens of thousands of reserve troops.

I strongly support Israel and in 1999 I planted trees to help re-established the Israeli National Forest.

But as long as Netanyahu is in power, there will be enough terrorism directed by him against Palestinians that this sort of thing will continue from time to time, especially when countries like Saudi Arabia get involved in peace talks with Israel.

[maddmaxx ★]

I suspect that one trigger point is that Saudi Arabia is negotiating better relationships with Israel.  The hardliners who control Gaza could not withstand Israel normalizing relations with the rest of the middle east.  They only rule in constant state of almost war.

Frankly, if your neighbor shoots people in your house then burning down theirs is one possibility.

There will never be peace for the Palestinians so long as Hamas and Hezbollah have any power.  

[maddmaxx ★]

 

The Lebanese militant group Hezbollah said in a statement it was in “direct contact with the leadership of the Palestinian resistance” following calls from Hamas for militants across the region to take up arms against Israel.

The Iran-backed group, an arch nemesis of Israel, described the events as a “decisive response to Israel’s continued occupation and a message to those seeking normalisation with Israel,” though it has not yet joined any fighting.

 

[BuffJim]

38 minutes ago, maddmaxx said:

The Lebanese militant group Hezbollah said in a statement it was in “direct contact with the leadership of the Palestinian resistance” following calls from Hamas for militants across the region to take up arms against Israel.

The Iran-backed group, an arch nemesis of Israel, described the events as a “decisive response to Israel’s continued occupation and a message to those seeking normalisation with Israel,” though it has not yet joined any fighting.

I am reading reports of skirmishes between Hezbollah and IDF (Israel Defense Forces). It appears Israel is ready to go all out against Hamas in the South and Hezbollah in the North. 

[Wilbur ★]

"If the Palestinians lay down their weapons, there will be peace.  If the Israelis lay down their weapons, there will be a massacre"

Golda Meir

A poignant quote. 

Don't expect an equal and opposite reaction.  It may take a while but the Arabs will feel the retaliation. 

[ChrisL]

27 minutes ago, Wilbur said:

"If the Palestinians lay down their weapons, there will be peace.  If the Israelis lay down their weapons, there will be a massacre"

Golda Meir

A poignant quote. 

Don't expect an equal and opposite reaction.  It may take a while but the Arabs will feel the retaliation. 

This… I have been through security briefings given by Israeli’s and their view on security is to a level most western politicians won’t stomach but is effective. 

[BuffJim]

Seeing speculation about Iran mining the Straits of Hormuz. Good thing we have a strategic petroleum reserve. 

[Dottleshead ★]

It was suicide.  Israel will wipe them off the face of the map.

[maddmaxx ★]

22 minutes ago, Dottleshead said:

It was suicide.  Israel will wipe them off the face of the map.

Like all terrorist wars, Hamas will return to hiding behind women and children in the hopes that Israel will do something horrible and turn the world against them.  That's the nature of asymmetrical warfare.  Hamas doesn't really want to win.  They seek a massacre in retaliation.  This is public relations warfare being fought by those who's interest in being in charge is more important than the lives of fellow civilians in Gaza.

[maddmaxx ★]

How motivated are the Israelis.  Blood drives started immediately.

 

 

[Dottleshead ★]

1 hour ago, maddmaxx said:

Like all terrorist wars, Hamas will return to hiding behind women and children in the hopes that Israel will do something horrible and turn the world against them.  That's the nature of asymmetrical warfare.  Hamas doesn't really want to win.  They seek a massacre in retaliation.  This is public relations warfare being fought by those who's interest in being in charge is more important than the lives of fellow civilians in Gaza.

Spot on. But I sense they are going to do what best for them. Unfortunately some collateral damage is going to happen. It makes me happy we have a friendly neighbor. 

[Thaddeus Kosciuszko]

I'm surprised that it looks like the Israelis were caught flat-footed.  Their intelligence networks are usually very good.

2 hours ago, maddmaxx said:

How motivated are the Israelis. 

I'd suggest that these offer some insight into why they are so motivated.  The cover of The Brigade mentions vengeance, and they weren't kidding.

 

 

[Wilbur ★]

27 minutes ago, Thaddeus Kosciuszko said:

'm surprised that it looks like the Israelis were caught flat-footed.  Their intelligence networks are usually very good.

I am a little surprised by that as well but things really shut down around Yom Kippur.  It would have been much easier for the attackers to get staged. 

 

[Kirby]

I was on another website that has some long time members who live in Israel  Luckily most of them live in the northern part of the country so were relatively safe, but they commented that based on relative populations, the attack would equal approximately 4,500 people in the US - more than were killed on 9/11.  No idea if their math is correct, but that seems to be the perception.  They were also surprised by the lack of advance intelligence re the attack.

[maddmaxx ★]

50 years ago (to the day I believe) Israel was surprised when the Egyptian army conducted a surprise attack across the Suez Canal defeating the fortress complexes defending the Israeli side.  At the same time the Syrians attacked from the north.  It was another intelligence failure and Israel was losing badly.  Today we know it as the Yom Kippur War of 1973.

Complacency and the belief that you are so much stronger than your foe has been the undoing of many a military force.

[Bikeguy]

6 hours ago, BuffJim said:

Good thing we have a strategic petroleum reserve. 

  About 45% of it was used to keep gas prices low over the recent years.    link  Graph below  

The max usage rage from the reserve is 4.4 million barrels per day.  351 million barrels is about 80 days at the max usage rate.  link

The US uses about 19 million barrels of oil per day.   link

[Wilbur ★]

50 minutes ago, maddmaxx said:

50 years ago (to the day I believe) Israel was surprised when the Egyptian army conducted a surprise attack across the Suez Canal defeating the fortress complexes defending the Israeli side.  At the same time the Syrians attacked from the north.  It was another intelligence failure and Israel was losing badly.  Today we know it as the Yom Kippur War of 1973.

Complacency and the belief that you are so much stronger than your foe has been the undoing of many a military force.

No coincidence for sure. 

[Bikeguy]

2 hours ago, maddmaxx said:

Complacency and the belief that you are so much stronger than your foe has been the undoing of many a military force.

That doesn't say much about our future.   

[Reverend_Maynard]

An inevitable consequence of religion.  The world will be a better place when all that superstitious BS is finally cast aside. 

[BuffJim]

34 minutes ago, Reverend_Maynard said:

An inevitable consequence of religion.  The world will be a better place when all that superstitious BS is finally cast aside. 

Be careful what you wish for. Hitler, Mao and Stalin all squelched religion. Hundreds of millions died in the 20th century. 

[Reverend_Maynard]

11 minutes ago, BuffJim said:

Be careful what you wish for. Hitler, Mao and Stalin all squelched religion. Hundreds of millions died in the 20th century. 

Religion has killed untold billions throughout history.  I'm not advocating outlawing it or anything... just stop normalizing it.  stop treating it like it's worthy of any consideration in government policy.  stop fighting and killing over fairy tales!

[BuffJim]

On 10/7/2023 at 10:46 AM, MickinMD said:

Bad but could be worse.

40 Israelis killed. Update: now 11 am EDT, CNN is saying at least 70 Israelis dead, more than 900 wounded.

 

 

Israel death toll now over 700. No doubt Palestine number will be higher. 

[Wilbur ★]

1 hour ago, BuffJim said:

Israel death toll now over 700. No doubt Palestine number will be higher. 

This is just getting started.  Israel normally performs countermeasures to stop the attacks, then intelligence tracks and locates targets and that can take months to years.  I am guessing Gaza will be largely destroyed, Parts of Lebanon, possibly Egypt, and most certainly Iran.   This isn't going to be retaliation.  This will send Palestinians back decades.  Rightfully so. 

[maddmaxx ★]

Even videos from Gaza yesterday showed more than one high rise building going down.  When Hamas puts rocket launchers on the top of civilian apartments Israel say they are valid targets.  The tanks will roll tomorrow.  

I suspect that Hamas will execute some of the hostages and through stupidity lose any PR they might have thought to gain here.

[maddmaxx ★]

One point.  Iran is funding this war.

[Wilbur ★]

5 minutes ago, maddmaxx said:

One point.  Iran is funding this war.

Probably planning it as well. 

[Dottleshead ★]

6 minutes ago, Wilbur said:

Probably planning it as well. 

No doubt.

[Bikeguy]

2 hours ago, maddmaxx said:

One point.  Iran is funding this war.

Yeah.... they have $6 billion to spend.   Who knew..  

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/u-s-makes-deal-with-iran-to-swap-prisoners-and-release-6-billion-in-frozen-money

[maddmaxx ★]

15 minutes ago, Bikeguy said:

Yeah.... they have $6 billion to spend.   Who knew..  

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/u-s-makes-deal-with-iran-to-swap-prisoners-and-release-6-billion-in-frozen-money

They are not able to use this money other than for approved humanitarian reasons.  The money is actually not under their control but is in an account overseen by non Iranian auditors.  

It's just another example of ...................... well, I can't say that here.

[Dottleshead ★]

Isreal has ordered the complete seize of Gaza.  

[Wilbur ★]

40 minutes ago, Dottleshead said:

Isreal has ordered the complete seize of Gaza.  

Long overdue. 

[jsharr ★]

Hamas says it will kill a hostage for every unannounced Israeli attack on Gaza.   How hardline is Israel going to be here? 

[maddmaxx ★]

12 minutes ago, jsharr said:

Hamas says it will kill a hostage for every unannounced Israeli attack on Gaza.   How hardline is Israel going to be here? 

Hamas went too far this time.  There is going to be a fundamental change in Gaza.  Every time Israel gives it back it costs them in blood.

[BuffJim]

15 minutes ago, jsharr said:

Hamas says it will kill a hostage for every unannounced Israeli attack on Gaza.   How hardline is Israel going to be here? 

They’re pretty angry now. But have always shied away from letting hostages get killed. Time will tell. 

[Wilbur ★]

29 minutes ago, jsharr said:

Hamas says it will kill a hostage for every unannounced Israeli attack on Gaza.   How hardline is Israel going to be here? 

Israel will have little tolerance for it.  Hamas has gone too far.  They will be destroyed as a fighting force and political party.  I think they have to consider the hostages as deceased and proceed on that basis. 

[maddmaxx ★]

History is that Israel has been treating Gaza as a "containment" problem.  As long as it remained just a soldier kidnapped or a single incident costing just a few lives that was acceptable vs going back into Gaza and forcibly removing Hamas.  With 700 dead and climbing and part of that being 250+ men, women and children being murdered at a music festival the equation changes.  

This is the single largest civilian death toll in Israel's history including 4 wars and hundreds of terrorist incidents.  I read somewhere today that if this were scaled up proportionally to the US population that we would be looking at almost 25,000 dead.  What would we do about that.

IMO, the occupation of Gaza and the permanent removal of Hamas is in play this time.  The complications are the possible spillover into a wider range war with Syria and Iran and the PR damage from the possible deaths of many civilians in Gaza who can't or won't be allowed to get out of the way.

Ukraine just got knocked off the front page.

[Thaddeus Kosciuszko]

6 hours ago, BuffJim said:

But have always shied away from letting hostages get killed.

A valid and fair point. 

But Israel plays the long game with patience and skill, and in cases like this without much regard for world opinion.  I would think that in this case they realize that the hostages taken may already be dead, or suffering, and have a high probability of never being set free. 

The taking of hostages was based on the assumption that recovering the hostages would be high on the priority list for Israel.  Given the magnitude of invasion, destruction, and deaths rescuing hostages will fall below the other priorities of preserving the nation of Israel and destroying Hamas to prevent this from happening in the future, near future anyway.

Israel will also be taking retribution against Iran, now that it is clear Iran significantly assisted in the operation.

I think, too, retribution is too light a word.  Retaliation, is perhaps, too.  I think we will see a response many-fold beyond what Israel has suffered.  You can be sure they have plans well-refined of measured escalation designed to fit just about every particular situation.  There will be immediate reaction, but you can be sure the Israeli response to this will echo through years.

[Bikeguy]

I just read this story.  

Tragic story of an Israeli couple who killed 7 Hamas militants to save their children.

The couple didn't survive... the children did. 

 

[maddmaxx ★]

11 hours ago, Bikeguy said:

I just read this story.  

Tragic story of an Israeli couple who killed 7 Hamas militants to save their children.

The couple didn't survive... the children did. 

a reinforced security room required in all new buildings by Israeli law, 

What must it be like to live in a place where your neighbors want you dead and parts of the rest of the world think that's ok.

[Wilbur ★]

1 hour ago, maddmaxx said:

a reinforced security room required in all new buildings by Israeli law, 

What must it be like to live in a place where your neighbors want you dead and parts of the rest of the world think that's ok.

They have also removed gun ban laws now preferring citizens to be able to defend themselves. 

[maddmaxx ★]

2 hours ago, Wilbur said:

They have also removed gun ban laws now preferring citizens to be able to defend themselves. 

They have universal conscription and training so that helps.  They are not paranoid gun toters.  They really do have enemies bent on their death around every corner.  I'm currently reading a book about the runup to the 1967 war.  At various times during 1966 there either 3 per week or 2 per day of terrorist attacks in Israel.  Those consisted of everything from drive by shootings to IED landmines placed in roads to blow up passing vehicles.  As you mentioned, shooting up bus loads of people was almost a Palestinian hobby.

[Reverend_Maynard]

On 10/10/2023 at 8:59 AM, maddmaxx said:

 

What must it be like to live in a place where your neighbors want you dead and parts of the rest of the world think that's ok.

You kind of left out the part where you also want your neighbors dead just as bad as they want you dead, and most of the world thinks that's ok.

[maddmaxx ★]

1 hour ago, Reverend_Maynard said:

You kind of left out the part where you also want your neighbors dead just as bad as they want you dead, and most of the world thinks that's ok.

It's a nice meme but the Golda Meir quote applies more.  That's what the world really needs to know.  History supports this with 4 major wars and thousands of terrorist incidents.  Even the Egyptians and the Jordanians won't allow the Palestinians into their country

 

"If the Palestinians lay down their weapons, there will be peace.  If the Israelis lay down their weapons, there will be a massacre"

 

[BuffJim]

1 hour ago, Reverend_Maynard said:

You kind of left out the part where you also want your neighbors dead just as bad as they want you dead, and most of the world thinks that's ok.

This was a good thread. Don’t try to get it banned by being inflammatory.