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COVID-19 Updates


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21 minutes ago, Prophet Zacharia said:

I read the Governor of Maryland just procured 500,000 test kits, I believe from South Korea. He was pretty excited about it.

I heard 500.  That was the number quoted in today's state of New York press conference.  According to the press it was 500K  I wonder whose machines they fit and whether they have swabs and reagents to work with those kits.  The gov said something about using Federal labs.

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26 minutes ago, maddmaxx said:

I heard 500.  That was the number quoted in today's state of New York press conference.  According to the press it was 500K  I wonder whose machines they fit and whether they have swabs and reagents to work with those kits.  The gov said something about using Federal labs.

I found it interesting that, when asked, a person presenting had them bring back up a slide showing all the testing facilities in Maryland.  No comment on if those testing facilities would/could provide COVID-19 testing, but just showing that MD does indeed have test centers! 

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14 minutes ago, Razors Edge said:

I found it interesting that, when asked, VP Pence had them bring back up a slide showing all the testing facilities in Maryland.  No comment on if those testing facilities would/could provide COVID-19 testing, but just showing that MD does indeed have test centers! 

Stop.  Stop right now.  This is a good thread.

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8 minutes ago, 2Far said:

image.png.05f2ee39542ec6ed32809b1cdf5d0bed.png

I saw these "official" charts.  I was confused that they disagreed so much with other sources.  I wonder how the data is collected.

https://www.google.com/search?q=covid+cases+in+Georgia&rlz=1CAMWDF_enUS803&oq=covid+cases+in+Georgia&aqs=chrome..69i57.5427j0j9&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

https://www.wtoc.com/2020/04/21/positive-covid-cases-rise-over-ga/

 

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Maryland did secure 500,000 test kits, at a cost of $9,000,000 from S. Korea.

And yes, Maryland's first lady Yumi Hogan did capitalize on her South Korean heritage to clinch the deal: the initial attempts to get the test kits 22 days ago was done in Korean by Yumi.

Trump said their were already plenty of test facilities in Maryland - after telling the Governors they were on their own - so Gov. Hogan is calling Trump's bluff and Hogan says now Maryland with send the tests for processing to the places Trump says have been available - even though they haven't been avialable to date, including the National Institutes of Health in Bethesda, Maryland, etc.

The graph below shows one of the big problems. The rate of increase hasn't slowed down for the number of currently occupied critical and acute beds with COVID-19 victims in Maryland. In fact, the rate is slightly increasing!  This is one of the reasons for maintaining the shelter in place rules: there aren't a lot of empty beds, ventilators, etc. and we'd be in big trouble if the rate skyrockets.  The extent of the problem needs to be measured in order to understand how these numbers are likely to grow.

Personally, I'm hoping the peak - across the nation - is around April 29th, just like COVID-19's cousin, the SARS-2002 coronavirus did in 2003 and then did a seasonal die-off over the month of May.

image.png.2013fa6d9c5bb757e05d4c575f4dde84.png

 

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24 minutes ago, MickinMD said:

Maryland did secure 500,000 test kits, at a cost of $9,000,000 from S. Korea.

And yes, Maryland's first lady Yumi Hogan did capitalize on her South Korean heritage to clinch the deal: the initial attempts to get the test kits 22 days ago was done in Korean by Yumi.

Trump said their were already plenty of test facilities in Maryland - after telling the Governors they were on their own - so Gov. Hogan is calling Trump's bluff and Hogan says now Maryland with send the tests for processing to the places Trump says have been available - even though they haven't been avialable to date, including the National Institutes of Health in Bethesda, Maryland, etc.

The graph below shows one of the big problems. The rate of increase hasn't slowed down for the number of currently occupied critical and acute beds with COVID-19 victims in Maryland. In fact, the rate is slightly increasing!  This is one of the reasons for maintaining the shelter in place rules: there aren't a lot of empty beds, ventilators, etc. and we'd be in big trouble if the rate skyrockets.  The extent of the problem needs to be measured in order to understand how these numbers are likely to grow.

Personally, I'm hoping the peak - across the nation - is around April 29th, just like COVID-19's cousin, the SARS-2002 coronavirus did in 2003 and then did a seasonal die-off over the month of May.

image.png.2013fa6d9c5bb757e05d4c575f4dde84.png

 

Is there any news on which laboratory equipment these test kits can be run?  Will they be compatible with all the facilities or are they specialized?  Are they antibody tests or actual covid-19 tests?

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Here's the latest patterns in the 5-day averages of the daily reported cases of COVID-19 from Johns Hopkins.

The right end of the USA pattern, the highest one, is in the pattern that technical-oriented stock investors call a "head and shoulders" - three peaks with the middle peak the highest. I'm a fundamental, not technical, investor but have noted in the past that a head and shoulders in stock prices very often indicates the price will begin to drop.

I hope that applies here!

"In technical analysis, a head and shoulders pattern describes a specific chart formation that predicts a bullish-to-bearish trend reversal. The head and shoulders pattern is believed to be one of the most reliable trend reversal patterns. It is one of several top patterns that signal, with varying degrees of accuracy, that an upward trend is nearing its end." - https://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/head-shoulders.asp

image.png.fc9c00fbef99799d29e0efaabef2ab10.png

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24 minutes ago, maddmaxx said:

Is there any news on which laboratory equipment these test kits can be run?  Will they be compatible with all the facilities or are they specialized?  Are they antibody tests or actual covid-19 tests?

They're not antibody tests - I don't know of anyone making them for U.S. use except Abbott Labs - which says it will produce 4,000,000 by the end of April (my largest stock holding!).

According to the Baltimore NBC TV affiliate about these 500,000 tests: "the state invested $2.5 million to help the University of Maryland-Baltimore lab handle up to 20,000 tests per day."

It's definitely 500,000 total tests, but I've seen one article say 5,000 test kits and 500,000 tests - maybe a "kit" is good for 1000 tests and that may be where the confusion about the number arose.

Gov. Hogan says he hopes federal medical installations which have NOT helped though asked will help as Trump now says they will.

But Hogan's done counting on the federal government and it looks like most tests will be done at University of Maryland Hospital in Baltimore:

"The governor said Maryland has expanded testing capability by over 5,000% and has completed more than 71,000 tests to date. Last week, the state secured an additional 40,000 tests and the state invested $2.5 million to help the University of Maryland-Baltimore lab handle up to 20,000 tests per day."

Source: https://www.wbaltv.com/article/coronavirus-maryland-governor-larry-hogan-covid-19-testing-announcement/32209117.

P.S. There may be some hiccups involved, though: "While the state still lacks swabs, chemical reagents and other crucial elements, Northam said state labs, private health systems and colleges and universities have marshaled enough resources to begin creating a systematic approach to testing that will help officials better understand the spread of the disease."

Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/maryland-coronavirus-testing-kits-south-korea/2020/04/20/d5d449a4-8311-11ea-a3eb-e9fc93160703_story.html

Doctors at Johns Hopkins Hospital have told my sister, a master nurse there, that Abbott machines that have been in hospitals since long before COVID-19 can run the COVID-19 (not antibody) tests that are running now up to 2000/day/Abbott machine.

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43 minutes ago, MickinMD said:

Here's the latest patterns in the 5-day averages of the daily reported cases of COVID-19 from Johns Hopkins.

The right end of the USA pattern, the highest one, is in the pattern that technical-oriented stock investors call a "head and shoulders" - three peaks with the middle peak the highest. I'm a fundamental, not technical, investor but have noted in the past that a head and shoulders in stock prices very often indicates the price will begin to drop.

I hope that applies here!

"In technical analysis, a head and shoulders pattern describes a specific chart formation that predicts a bullish-to-bearish trend reversal. The head and shoulders pattern is believed to be one of the most reliable trend reversal patterns. It is one of several top patterns that signal, with varying degrees of accuracy, that an upward trend is nearing its end." - https://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/head-shoulders.asp

image.png.fc9c00fbef99799d29e0efaabef2ab10.pngimageproxy.php?img=&key=02ba349a934c5777imageproxy.php?img=&key=02ba349a934c5777

Again, I don't know where those numbers are coming from but here's the CDC count through today and it is not flattening.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

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Air Canada is suspending all flights to the US for the better part of a month.   

Cargill in Alberta has closed its beef processing plant due to a Covid outbreak.  A second meat processor is on a reduced schedule and experts think it too will close.  That will be 70% of the country's beef supply.  A poultry plant near Vancouver is also experiencing an outbreak.  

Might be a good time to go vegan.. 

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Whoops.

An anti-malarial drug aggressively promoted to treat covid-19 had no benefit and was linked to higher rates of death for Veterans Affairs patients hospitalized with the novel coronavirus, according to a study, raising further questions about the safety and efficacy of a treatment that has seen widespread use in the pandemic. The study by VA and academic researchers analyzed outcomes of 368 male patients nationwide, with 97 receiving hydroxychloroquine, 113 receiving hydroxychloroquine in combination with the antibiotic azithromycin, and 158 not receiving any hydroxychloroquine.

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8 minutes ago, Prophet Zacharia said:

Whoops.

An anti-malarial drug aggressively promoted to treat covid-19 had no benefit and was linked to higher rates of death for Veterans Affairs patients hospitalized with the novel coronavirus, according to a study, raising further questions about the safety and efficacy of a treatment that has seen widespread use in the pandemic. The study by VA and academic researchers analyzed outcomes of 368 male patients nationwide, with 97 receiving hydroxychloroquine, 113 receiving hydroxychloroquine in combination with the antibiotic azithromycin, and 158 not receiving any hydroxychloroquine.

There's such a rush to find something and for good reason.  

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47 minutes ago, Prophet Zacharia said:

Whoops.

An anti-malarial drug aggressively promoted to treat covid-19 had no benefit and was linked to higher rates of death for Veterans Affairs patients hospitalized with the novel coronavirus, according to a study, raising further questions about the safety and efficacy of a treatment that has seen widespread use in the pandemic. The study by VA and academic researchers analyzed outcomes of 368 male patients nationwide, with 97 receiving hydroxychloroquine, 113 receiving hydroxychloroquine in combination with the antibiotic azithromycin, and 158 not receiving any hydroxychloroquine.

The higher death rate may be due to the drug being given as a last-gasp measure in many cases.  My Aunt Sally got one of the anti-malarial drugs, hydroxychloroquine, after she suddenly went downhill. She died the next day but would have died without it, too.

At the same podium Trump said, with no expertise or evidence, that it was a "game changer," his infection expert Dr. Fauci said there was no evidence to support that claim.  But if I was dying of coronavirus, I'd give it a shot.

It's like the ABC "study" ID'ing the worst hospitals in each state and telling people to stay away from highest-death-rate-in-Maryland Johns Hopkins Hospital, which has won a best-hospital-in-America award from a major hospital association for over 2 decades straight.

The reason Hopkins has a high death rate is that people from all across America and the World are sent to Johns Hopkins when nothing else can be done for them. Hopkins has gone from losing the lives of 3 of every 4 kids with leukemia in the 80's (which is where my sister started out as a candy striper then a nurse there) to curing or greatly prolonging the lives of 7 of every 8 now. Still, that's a high death rate.

If you remember the Disney movie, "Pollyanna" where she is paralyzed from a fall, at the end of the movie she's sent by train to Baltimore to be cured at Johns Hopkins Hospital - she was cured in the original book.

So just because the death rate is high, it doesn't mean it's worse than nothing - it could be those last-gasp efforts that drives the statistic up.

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4 hours ago, MickinMD said:

The higher death rate may be due to the drug being given as a last-gasp measure in many cases. 

No doubt. But elevation of cardiac QTc interval is what frequently earns drugs a “black box warning” which results in restricted, cautious use, or removed from the market altogether in the US. Not promoted as a miracle treatment for all.

The French national agency in charge of drug safety reported that 43 patients taking hydroxychloroquine or a combination of the drug and azithromycin suffered cardiac-related side effects and between one and four deaths. Researchers in Brazil ended a portion of a clinical trial testing high doses of chloroquine in covid-19 patients after they developed heart problems and suffered higher mortality. A team of researchers at New York University’s Langone Medical Center found that, out of 84 patients treated with the combination of hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin, 11 percent had QT prolongation beyond 500 milliseconds — the proven danger zone for sudden cardiac death. Thirty percent of the patients overall had significant increases in their hearts’ QT intervals.

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1 hour ago, Dottles said:

This covidiot learned the hard way -- or not. It's tough to know what he learned.

https://www.foxnews.com/health/ohio-man-dies-from-coronavirus-after-online-posts-calling-it-bulls-and-political-ploy

 

I fear very few have learned anything. It’s why the constant claim of “Fake News” is so dangerous. Yes, you have to be critical of your information and sources, but it’s become a rationalization for rejecting anything you disagree with.

“That guys death could easily be blamed on fake news and skewed death tolls. Nobody knows what to believe the way the media is reporting the data.”

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10 hours ago, Prophet Zacharia said:

The study by VA and academic researchers analyzed outcomes of 368 male patients nationwide, with 97 receiving hydroxychloroquine, 113 receiving hydroxychloroquine in combination with the antibiotic azithromycin, and 158 not receiving any hydroxychloroquine.

 

9 hours ago, MickinMD said:

The higher death rate may be due to the drug being given as a last-gasp measure in many cases. 

Most likely, the study controlled for this condition - ie all were in the last-gap stage or were assigned equally but randomly according to their conditions. So with those 368 (in this study), bad stuff was more likely in the hydroxychloroquine groups vs the non-hydroxychloroquine group.

They'll keep plugging away at whatever options they can think of, but so far, the hydroxychloroquine seems a false promise (at best) and more dangerous in many cases.

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I wish they'd give more information about deaths by age and among those with serious medical conditions. I don't think we're there yet, but I think we're a lot closer to people returning to work if they're under 70 and don't have serious, pre-existing conditions.

A big chunk of the dead are coming out of nursing homes where there are mostly serious, pre-existing conditions to begin with.

In the past 7 days in Maryland, there have been 282 COVID-19 deaths.  Only 15 have been under the age of 50: 1 20-29 (1595 total cases), 7 30-39 (2415 cases), 7 40-49 (2611 cases).  There were 21 from 50-59 and 37 from 60-69.  So 3/4 of the deaths were 70 and over, most of them over 80 and almost all retired.

An average of 2 per day under 50 and, 3 per day 50-59, and 5 per day 60-69!  That's not the end of the world for workers!

In the last 3 days there have been 131 confirmed deaths: no one under 50 has died, 9 50-59, 22 60-69, 41 70-79, and 59 80+.

That's over 3/4 of the deaths in the past 3 days are 70 or older and I bet a lot of those who died had heart, lung, etc. serious problems. And, again virtually all are retired.

Altogether, none of the 469 victims under 20 has died and only 2 of the 1595 20-29 cases: these are the ages of most of the people stacking shelves in supermarkets, Walmart, etc.

Of course, we can't tell if there's going to be surges in the next month, but I'm hoping things are a lot closer to normal a month from now!

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3 minutes ago, MickinMD said:

I wish they'd give more information about deaths by age and among those with serious medical conditions. I don't think we're there yet, but I think we're a lot closer to people returning to work if they're under 70 and don't have serious, pre-existing conditions.

A big chunk of the dead are coming out of nursing homes where there are mostly serious, pre-existing conditions to begin with.

In the past 7 days in Maryland, there have been 282 COVID-19 deaths.  Only 15 have been under the age of 50: 1 20-29 (1595 total cases), 7 30-39 (2415 cases), 7 40-49 (2611 cases).  There were 21 from 50-59 and 37 from 60-69.  So over 4/5 of the deaths were 70 and over, most of them over 80 and almost all retired.

An average of 2 per day under 50 and, 3 per day 50-59, and 5 per day 60-69!  That's not the end of the world for workers!

In the last 3 days there have been 131 confirmed deaths: no one under 50 has died, 9 50-59, 22 60-69, 41 70-79, and 59 80+.

That's over 3/4 of the deaths in the past 3 days are 70 or older and I bet a lot of those who died had heart, lung, etc. serious problems. And, again virtually all are retired.

Altogether, none of the 469 victims under 20 has died and only 2 of the 1595 20-29 cases: these are the ages of most of the people stacking shelves in supermarkets, Walmart, etc.

Of course, we can't tell if there's going to be surges in the next month, but I'm hoping things are a lot closer to normal a month from now!

It's the end of the world for the victims if the virus is being spread by the young when they come home at night.

I absolutely refuse to value some lives over others.  I think that idea sucks.

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6 minutes ago, MickinMD said:

An average of 2 per day under 50 and, 3 per day 50-59, and 5 per day 60-69!  That's not the end of the world for workers!

That's with HEIGHTENED social distancing.  With "normal" conditions, that would be an order or two of magnitude worse.  Is 20 or 200 per day still nothing?  Are infected (and contagious), but not dying folks a good thing to have in working (and home) environments?

What I hear is a "we're keeping deaths to a reasonable minimum so that's a reason to ramp those deaths up some more by undoing the safety measures" sort of thing.

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Just now, Razors Edge said:

That's with HEIGHTENED social distancing.  With "normal" conditions, that would be an order or two of magnitude worse.  Is 20 or 200 per day still nothing?  Are infected (and contagious), but not dying folks a good thing to have in working environments?

What I hear is a "we're keeping deaths to a reasonable minimum so that's a reason to ramp those deaths up some more by undoing the safety measures" sort of thing.

What I'm hearing is that some lives are worth more than others.

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10 minutes ago, Dottles said:

I'm with you. Somehow it's ok if our weakest, most fragile folks die off. That's us, our parents, our grandparents. Kill off the old because their lives don't matter as much.

I see the same in our healthcare system here.  It is time to remove the "best before" date on humans. 

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NJ reported 379 deaths yesterday, a new high. 

It's a good point about the demographics of the deceased, and what sort of pre-existing conditions they had.

Some people believe what they want to believe despite what professional experts (read: "nerds") say. That's mostly harmless if you're talking about Flat Earth. Less harmless with a raging virus. 

In the last week or so I'm having a really hard time staying optimistic about this. Is that just me? 

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8 minutes ago, TrentonMakes said:

NJ reported 379 deaths yesterday, a new high. 

It's a good point about the demographics of the deceased, and what sort of pre-existing conditions they had.

Some people believe what they want to believe despite what professional experts (read: "nerds") say. That's mostly harmless if you're talking about Flat Earth. Less harmless with a raging virus. 

In the last week or so I'm having a really hard time staying optimistic about this. Is that just me? 

No it's not just you.  They see a tanking economy and they have concerns.  So they're trying to spin it as fit to return -- or in some cases if you're a billionaire -- you should just toughen up and assume there will be deaths.  We're still waiting to hear which one of his family members are going back to work though.  In the meantime, this is going to be with us, I believe, throughout 2020.  They'll try to start, stop, and restart and it's not going to change anything.  It'll slow it down but until there's a vaccine -- what's happening today is going to be happening in fall/winter.

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39 minutes ago, Wilbur said:

I see the same in our healthcare system here.  It is time to remove the "best before" date on humans. 

 

30 minutes ago, Dottles said:

No it's not just you.  They see a tanking economy and they have concerns.  So they're trying to spin it as fit to return -- or in some cases if you're a billionaire -- you should just toughen up and assume there will be deaths.  We're still waiting to hear which one of his family members are going back to work though.  In the meantime, this is going to be with us, I believe, throughout 2020.  They'll try to start, stop, and restart and it's not going to change anything.  It'll slow it down but until there's a vaccine -- what's happening today is going to be happening in fall/winter.

Cuomo  geve a pretty good talk at his press conference yesterday.  He described the very variated area that is called New York State and pointed out that what was needed inside New York City was very different from what was needed in west central New York.  He spoke at length about a gradual phase in of restarting the economy at different times in different parts of the state with different rules for each part.  There was no all or nothing give me liberty or let people die.  There was some rational thinking and planning for what needs to be done.  It does however require that people, even in the reopened places maintain some social distancing and perhaps even wearing masks.

I just don't get the same vibe from the open it all up now folks.  Some of you may know what's driving much of the angst on the internet but I doubt that wheels will let me speak of what's been discovered behind the curtain.  

I'm going to put the address of his press conference video here, but not the actual utube video.  It's not really a political speech but it goes to length on testing, how it works, what states need, and the concept of when and how to reopen the economy.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/21/watch-live-ny-gov-andrew-cuomo-holds-a-press-conference-on-the-coronavirus.html

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