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COVID-19 Updates


Dottleshead

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351 NJ deaths yesterday, which represents 11% of the total to date. 71K total cases, with 2600+ new positives in the last 24 hours. We are at least on the west side of the state, some distance from the "hot corner".

I know we are at least lucky that I'm still working; given that caveat, with numbers like this I'm still not ready to think about reopening. I understand people in more dire financial straits may feel differently. 

Both my parents (in DE) are high-risk... especially my dad; I'm afraid he wouldn't be able to fight this. Unfortunately he still has to go out every two weeks for treatments... otherwise aside from short walks with the dog he doesn't leave the house. 

And I wish I didn't find the political angle so infuriating. It hasn't been helping my state of mind. 

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So much for flattening.

CT took off again today at the recent fast rate after a day or two of false promise.

Governor Ned Lamont announced the state's largest single day jump in COVID-19 deaths on Wednesday and 200 new cases.

The latest numbers from the state revealed 14,755 cases of coronavirus in Connecticut, 1908 hospitalizations and 868 deaths, Lamont announced Wednesday.

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11 minutes ago, maddmaxx said:

So much for flattening.

CT took off again today at the recent fast rate after a day or two of false promise.

Governor Ned Lamont announced the state's largest single day jump in COVID-19 deaths on Wednesday and 200 new cases.

The latest numbers from the state revealed 14,755 cases of coronavirus in Connecticut, 1908 hospitalizations and 868 deaths, Lamont announced Wednesday.

Possibly reporting irregularities.  Wait for tomorrow and smooth those numbers out.  We jumped yesterday after to very promising days and then went back down today. 

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9 minutes ago, Kzoo said:

Possibly reporting irregularities.  Wait for tomorrow and smooth those numbers out.  We jumped yesterday after to very promising days and then went back down today. 

Which is the exception and which is the rule?  Should we jump around and cheer when the number dips for a day or cry when it jumps up.

If one is great news, then the other is bad news.

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5 minutes ago, maddmaxx said:

Which is the exception and which is the rule?  Should we jump around and cheer when the number dips for a day or cry when it jumps up.

If one is great news, then the other is bad news.

Which is why I said.... "Wait for tomorrow and smooth those numbers out."

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3 minutes ago, maddmaxx said:

And in further news the mayor of New Haven has said enough is enough, the wearing of a mask is now mandatory inside of stores.

I don’t understand the progression from “recommended” to mandatory. By now we should know that most steps will be opposed by some, and it’s slowed the implementation of necessary measures to this point, and cost lives. if the recommendation is to wear a mask in public, mandate it from the start. 

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"ARDS occurs due to an excessive immune response against the Covid-19 virus in the lungs, with the inflammatory cytokines produced by the immune cells, cytokine storm, destroying the lung tissue. These inflammatory cytokines also can cause damage to other organs including liver, kidney and heart."

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This might be a game changer.  The navy discovered that more than half of the sailors taken off their aircraft carrier after testing positive never showed the slightest symptoms........ie they could spread it and you'd never know.  With only one percent of our population tested so far who can you trust to be sitting next to you on that bar stool when the economy is reopened?

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Unless we all sit in our homes until a vaccine or cure are developed, there will have to be periods of relaxation, and then restriction again... allowing the infections to continue, but at a rate the health care system can handle.  The higher risk groups will have no choice but to wait for that vaccine/cure.  The looser the general public's restrictions, the tighter they will have to keep their own.

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24 minutes ago, Reverend_Maynard said:

Unless we all sit in our homes until a vaccine or cure are developed, there will have to be periods of relaxation, and then restriction again... allowing the infections to continue, but at a rate the health care system can handle.  The higher risk groups will have no choice but to wait for that vaccine/cure.  The looser the general public's restrictions, the tighter they will have to keep their own.

IMO that only works when you can test everyone.  Considering that we have tested less than one percent of the population, we don't know anything about who is infected and who isn't and will catch it.  With some states bragging about being able to test 10,000 people a day in the future it's going to be a long time before unrestricted opening.  Other countries that had this beat are suddenly seeing spikes of increase again.  They tried opening.  Maybe this time we can learn from them.

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8 minutes ago, maddmaxx said:

IMO that only works when you can test everyone.  Considering that we have tested less than one percent of the population, we don't know anything about who is infected and who isn't and will catch it.  With some states bragging about being able to test 10,000 people a day in the future it's going to be a long time before unrestricted opening.  Other countries that had this beat are suddenly seeing spikes of increase again.  They tried opening.  Maybe this time we can learn from them.

No country ever had this beat, and they knew it.  Gradual reopening, followed by pulling back when infection rates rise is just going to be the new normal for the next 12-18 months. We can't starve this thing into submission via quarantine...  IMO we can only do that by letting it burn all its fuel (infect virtually everyone), or via a vaccine.  We are not every going to be able to quarantine our way out of this.  With that, gradual, controlled infection is the only strategy to make progress other than just waiting for a vaccine.  Testing would be good, to know who has had it, and how many are in early stages before they start flooding the ERs, but it doesn't change the overall outlook, I don't think.  You're never going to be able to test everyone, everyday.

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Okay, tin foil hat time.  I have been seeing an uptick on articles that this really might have been accidentally leaked from the lab in Wuhan. The sources are 'anonymous' so I'm obviously not convinced yet. 

If this is the case, and this was accidentally leaked, what happens to China?  How does the world potentially react? 

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3 minutes ago, Couch_Incident said:

Okay, tin foil hat time.  I have been seeing an uptick on articles that this really might have been accidentally leaked from the lab in Wuhan. The sources are 'anonymous' so I'm obviously not convinced yet. 

If this is the case, and this was accidentally leaked, what happens to China?  How does the world potentially react? 

Hmm, what happens if...

I think the russkies and the US and A are probably fully staffed in our chemical/biological weapons division, Isreal and the bad Korea, too.  Nothing that we aren't exploring.

That said, the simplest explanation is probably correct.  It  all started when a horny chinaman started banging exotic animals in the fish market or somesuch, which sounds like a typical scenario in China to me.

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3 hours ago, Couch_Incident said:

Okay, tin foil hat time.  I have been seeing an uptick on articles that this really might have been accidentally leaked from the lab in Wuhan. The sources are 'anonymous' so I'm obviously not convinced yet. 

If this is the case, and this was accidentally leaked, what happens to China?  How does the world potentially react? 

There was a SARS lab in Wuhan

There was a wetmarket in Wuhan

The virus originated in a wetmarket in Wuhan

A+B+C=whatever you want to pretend it to be.  People like Alex Jones are good at this.  It's a paycheck.

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It presents a bit of a catch-22.

There were US researchers in that lab until late 2019.  Were we part of that experiment?  Did we know about it and not stop it?  Maybe we shouldn't have been there.  Our researchers left shortly before the virus was found.  Would we have seen it and stopped it?  Maybe we shouldn't have left.

So either way, is it our fault anyway?

Or maybe it did just happen the way 99% of the scientist said.

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3 hours ago, Couch_Incident said:

Okay, tin foil hat time.  I have been seeing an uptick on articles that this really might have been accidentally leaked from the lab in Wuhan. The sources are 'anonymous' so I'm obviously not convinced yet. 

If this is the case, and this was accidentally leaked, what happens to China?  How does the world potentially react? 

Putin loves these stories. Last week it was the Harvard prof that sold the virus to the Chinese. 5G could be to blame, that was another recent story.  

Most science and research points to bats, possibly bats that have been eaten by stray dogs. 

Spillover is worth a read. His next book is about Covid. 

Spillover cover250

 

 

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25 minutes ago, 12string said:

It presents a bit of a catch-22.

There were US researchers in that lab until late 2019.  Were we part of that experiment?  Did we know about it and not stop it?  Maybe we shouldn't have been there.  Our researchers left shortly before the virus was found.  Would we have seen it and stopped it?  Maybe we shouldn't have left.

So either way, is it our fault anyway?

Or maybe it did just happen the way 99% of the scientist said.

Never go with the 99%.  Let's go hide over there behind the chain saws.

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7 hours ago, maddmaxx said:

This might be a game changer.  The navy discovered that more than half of the sailors taken off their aircraft carrier after testing positive never showed the slightest symptoms........ie they could spread it and you'd never know.  With only one percent of our population tested so far who can you trust to be sitting next to you on that bar stool when the economy is reopened?

I spoke with my nephew on Zoom on Easter.  His boat is in dock for maintenance/overhaul for several months, and he said if you are sick, you still need to check in for duty, and then are sent home (barracks?) to recover. There is NO TESTING. No mention of testing. No mention of isolation or masks.  Not really a smart way to approach a problem - especially when "readiness" is supposed to be a priority.

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4 minutes ago, Razors Edge said:

I spoke with my nephew on Zoom on Easter.  His boat is in dock for maintenance/overhaul for several months, and he said if you are sick, you still need to check in for duty, and then are sent home (barracks?) to recover. There is NO TESTING. No mention of testing. No mention of isolation or masks.  Not really a smart way to approach a problem - especially when "readiness" is supposed to be a priority.

Don't most navy ships do the hot-bunking thing?  I would imagine that with a widespread thing, there is no place to isolate, and the ship still has to do navy things as normal.  You can walk and talk, you can work, you kind of have to.

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1 minute ago, Razors Edge said:

Nah, they're off to San Diego soon.  They refurbs are almost done, but man will that will be dopey setting sail with several thousand sick seamen.

'Boats' don't hold thousands of men.  Maxi needs to smack you up side the head with jsharr's new pedal wrench.

 

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6 hours ago, Reverend_Maynard said:

  We are not every going to be able to quarantine our way out of this.  With that, gradual, controlled infection is the only strategy to make progress other than just waiting for a vaccine. 

Isn't that what 'flattening the curve' is. Rather than a steep curve with a lot of cases all at once you get a gradual curve with the cases spread over more time.  Basically the same number of cases but over a longer period of time. 

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1 hour ago, Razors Edge said:

I spoke with my nephew on Zoom on Easter.  His boat is in dock for maintenance/overhaul for several months, and he said if you are sick, you still need to check in for duty, and then are sent home (barracks?) to recover. There is NO TESTING. No mention of testing. No mention of isolation or masks.  Not really a smart way to approach a problem - especially when "readiness" is supposed to be a priority.

There's a reason they haven't been getting tested.  There simply aren't enough tests.  There are places out there bragging about how good they are doing and the numbers are like 10K per day for a state.  Again, there are 350 million of us.  There aren't enough tests to do anything but gamble.

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Just now, 12string said:

I really can't understand how we STILL are so far behind on  testing.  Bizarre.  Are we too worried about getting everyone their $1200 to spend money on addressing the disease?

Money is imaginary, a few keystrokes and the money flows over the wires, a test kit requires actual manufacturing and shipping of a physical thing.

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3 hours ago, Prophet Zacharia said:

I didn’t think they would extend it that long, so soon. They tend to tell you of changes just a few days in advance.

All the cool governors are getting together and syncing their cycles.  The extra time for planning might help get intelligent re-entry plans together for the region.  Still a lot of new cases in NY, NJ, and CT, so based on the data they have now, even the 15th seems a bit wishful right now.

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3 hours ago, Randomguy said:

All the cool governors are getting together and syncing their cycles.  The extra time for planning might help get intelligent re-entry plans together for the region.  Still a lot of new cases in NY, NJ, and CT, so based on the data they have now, even the 15th seems a bit wishful right now.

So the pajama party continues!

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4 hours ago, Randomguy said:

All the cool governors are getting together and syncing their cycles.  The extra time for planning might help get intelligent re-entry plans together for the region.  Still a lot of new cases in NY, NJ, and CT, so based on the data they have now, even the 15th seems a bit wishful right now.

Some people here are pissed that Western Pennsylvania is on the same schedule as Philadelphia. I imagine the sentiment is worse in some of the more rural counties of the state, too. Which is why I think a strong federal plan would have been a VERY good thing to have, because if Ohio and WVA do something completely different, will it ultimately matter what happens just across state lines?

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9 minutes ago, Prophet Zacharia said:

Which is why I think a strong federal plan would have been a VERY good thing to have, because if Ohio and WVA do something completely different, will it ultimately matter what happens just across state lines?

If not a federal plan, at least a set of criteria for an area.  Say... total active cases dropping at X% over Y number of days and hospital occupancy at Z% in a given county and adjacent counties.  A criteria like that would allow more rural areas to open almost immediately and remove the guess work from the governors decisions to keep the stay at home orders in place.

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15 hours ago, 12string said:

I really can't understand how we STILL are so far behind on  testing.  Bizarre.  Are we too worried about getting everyone their $1200 to spend money on addressing the disease?

I haven't gotten $1,200 yet still the testing sucks!  I'd prefer the testing to the $1,200, but jeebus, get at least one thing right!

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