COVID-19 Updates

[Dottleshead ★]

1 minute ago, maddmaxx said:

Especially if they can chose for someone else eh.

From my understanding most of it is being driven from the medical community.  And they're essentially being asked to do something none of them signed up to do -- decide who lives and dies -- when the whole reason they got into it in the first place was life.  At some point though when dealing with limited and overworked resources, there's going to be some water that topples over the dam.

[Wilbur ★]

17 minutes ago, maddmaxx said:

 

Cuomo  geve a pretty good talk at his press conference yesterday.  He described the very variated area that is called New York State and pointed out that what was needed inside New York City was very different from what was needed in west central New York.  He spoke at length about a gradual phase in of restarting the economy at different times in different parts of the state with different rules for each part.  There was no all or nothing give me liberty or let people die.  There was some rational thinking and planning for what needs to be done.  It does however require that people, even in the reopened places maintain some social distancing and perhaps even wearing masks.

I just don't get the same vibe from the open it all up now folks.  Some of you may know what's driving much of the angst on the internet but I doubt that wheels will let me speak of what's been discovered behind the curtain.  

I'm going to put the address of his press conference video here, but not the actual utube video.  It's not really a political speech but it goes to length on testing, how it works, what states need, and the concept of when and how to reopen the economy.

??

[Dottleshead ★]

There's some interesting news/data coming out of Sweden.  They basically decided not to fight it -- late nature take it's course.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

 

 

[Randomguy]

1 hour ago, Dottles said:

I'm with you. Somehow it's ok if our weakest, most fragile folks die off. That's us, our parents, our grandparents. Kill off the old because their lives don't matter as much.

The nice thing is that old people vote, and hopefully will live long enough to vote and to remember who was so quick to put them on the ice floe.

[maddmaxx ★]

2 minutes ago, Wilbur said:

??

Sorry.  It's there now.  Damn old man memory.

[12string]

No one wants to make that call, but when there's 4 patients and one ventilator, who gets it?

Balancing lives and economy is tricky.  Reopening, unless there's a total cure, will cost some lives at some point.  But the whole flattening the curve idea is that, without a vaccine or cure, it's a given that x% of the population will be contaminated, y% of those will die.  The lockdowns were never intended to reduce x or y, (other than buying time for a cure), but to stop them from all happening at once.  So, yes, at some point we'll reopen with restrictions, the next group of x's and y's will happen, again, trying to keep the second curve flat.  Then the 3rd curve, the 4th..... Unless no one ever leaves their house again, eventually x people get sick, y people die.  Until we kill the virus.

[Dottleshead ★]

1 minute ago, 12string said:

No one wants to make that call, but when there's 4 patients and one ventilator, who gets it?

Balancing lives and economy is tricky.  Reopening, unless there's a total cure, will cost some lives at some point.  But the whole flattening the curve idea is that, without a vaccine or cure, it's a given that x% of the population will be contaminated, y% of those will die.  The lockdowns were never intended to reduce x or y, (other than buying time for a cure), but to stop them from all happening at once.  So, yes, at some point we'll reopen with restrictions, the next group of x's and y's will happen, again, trying to keep the second curve flat.  Then the 3rd curve, the 4th..... Unless no one ever leaves their house again, eventually x people get sick, y people die.  Until we kill the virus.

Yep.  And if they start opening these economies -- that's exactly what you're going to get.  The system is already bursting at the seems.

[12string]

3 minutes ago, Dottles said:

There's some interesting news/data coming out of Sweden.  They basically decided not to fight it -- late nature take it's course.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

 

 

The Sweden thing again.  I keep seeing this "Sweden never closed and they all lived!!" thing.

Sweden didn't officially lock down.  Because Swedes did as they were told, and properly social distanced and wore masks.  Americans are stupid and had to be forced into it.  They also tested early ond often

Sweden also has FAR lower population density.  

There's a ton of factors in play to explain why Sweden did OK without a lockdown, the lockdown being the least of them

[maddmaxx ★]

seams

[12string]

1 minute ago, Dottles said:

Yep.  And if they start opening these economies -- that's exactly what you're going to get.  The system is already bursting at the seems.

It can be done without the overload.  For one, you take the people who survived it and developed antibodies out of the pool.  We need to watch China to see how that works.  And don't open everything at once, little at a time, see how it goes.  And by far most important - testing, so adjustments can be made as needed.  WE don't have nearly enough testing to keep the second curve from getting out of hand

[Dottleshead ★]

4 minutes ago, 12string said:

The Sweden thing again.  I keep seeing this "Sweden never closed and they all lived!!" thing.

Sweden didn't officially lock down.  Because Swedes did as they were told, and properly social distanced and wore masks.  Americans are stupid and had to be forced into it.  They also tested early ond often

Sweden also has FAR lower population density.  

There's a ton of factors in play to explain why Sweden did OK without a lockdown, the lockdown being the least of them

It'll just be interesting to see how it turns out for them.  Folks are dying there at an alarming rate of 1/8 but they are also saying that the community as a whole is reaching herd antibody status.  I'm not saying their approach is better or worse.  Just interesting.  All of us may be able to learn something from it like -- we should do that -- or phew I'm glad we didn't do what those Bozos did.

[maddmaxx ★]

4 minutes ago, 12string said:

It can be done without the overload.  For one, you take the people who survived it and developed antibodies out of the pool.  We need to watch China to see how that works.  And don't open everything at once, little at a time, see how it goes.  And by far most important - testing, so adjustments can be made as needed.  WE don't have nearly enough testing to keep the second curve from getting out of hand

China is learning they have opened up too fast.  Singapore and Hong Kong even more so.  This is going to be a long slog.

[Dottleshead ★]

4 minutes ago, 12string said:

It can be done without the overload.  For one, you take the people who survived it and developed antibodies out of the pool.  We need to watch China to see how that works.  And don't open everything at once, little at a time, see how it goes.  And by far most important - testing, so adjustments can be made as needed.  WE don't have nearly enough testing to keep the second curve from getting out of hand

That's what they say.  I don't believe it.  If I'm wrong, I'm wrong.  But I see us in a very similar situation come December.

[Dottleshead ★]

1 minute ago, maddmaxx said:

China is learning they have opened up too fast.  Singapore and Hong Kong even more so.  This is going to be a long slog.

 

Just now, Dottles said:

That's what they say.  I don't believe it.  If I'm wrong, I'm wrong.  But I see us in a very similar situation come December.

Yep.

[maddmaxx ★]

11 minutes ago, 12string said:

The Sweden thing again.  I keep seeing this "Sweden never closed and they all lived!!" thing.

Sweden didn't officially lock down.  Because Swedes did as they were told, and properly social distanced and wore masks.  Americans are stupid and had to be forced into it.  They also tested early ond often

Sweden also has FAR lower population density.  

There's a ton of factors in play to explain why Sweden did OK without a lockdown, the lockdown being the least of them

Are they really doing better?

As of Sunday, Sweden had reported 1,540 deaths tied to Covid-19, an increase of 29 from Saturday. That’s considerably more than in the rest of Scandinavia, but much less than in Italy, Spain and the U.K., both in absolute and relative terms.

[Mr. Silly]

11 minutes ago, 12string said:

The Sweden thing again.  I keep seeing this "Sweden never closed and they all lived!!" thing.

Sweden didn't officially lock down.  Because Swedes did as they were told, and properly social distanced and wore masks.  Americans are stupid and had to be forced into it.  They also tested early ond often

Sweden also has FAR lower population density.  

There's a ton of factors in play to explain why Sweden did OK without a lockdown, the lockdown being the least of them

Based on what I see on the Worldometer site is Sweden has 1,585 cases per million to the U.S.'s 2,511.  Whereas they have 192 deaths per million to 140 per million in the US.  

[Mr. Silly]

41 minutes ago, TrentonMakes said:

Well, if other states are going to open up, I take some comfort in the fact that no one wants to visit New Jersey. 

I feel the same way about living in the Detroit area.  

[12string]

Folks are dying there at an alarming rate of 1/8 but they are also saying that the community as a whole is reaching herd antibody status. 

 

Herd antibody status, of course, once enough people get it, the herd has immunity - the ones that lived.  The US will reach that, too, with lockdowns.  With much smaller population density - and much smaller population, and a medical system that was more prepared, they had less worry about flattening the curve.

And the people touting how the lockdown is a scam because Sweden conveniently leave out their 12% vs. our 2% fatality rate.

[Dottleshead ★]

4 minutes ago, Mr. Grumpy said:

Based on what I see on the Worldometer site is Sweden has 1,585 cases per million to the U.S.'s 2,511.  Whereas they have 192 deaths per million to 140 per million in the US.  

And now much of their population has antibodies.  It's too early to call and see how this plays out -- but if the rate is roughly the same -- we'd be foolish not to at least look at that approach.  I wonder how their economy is doing?  Yeah, yeah, I can google it.  But I'm off to escape in my insulated coronavirus video game room.

[Dottleshead ★]

2 minutes ago, 12string said:

And the people touting how the lockdown is a scam because Sweden conveniently leave out their 12% vs. our 2% fatality rate.

Agreed.  They left out something:  https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidnikel/2020/04/22/sweden-health-agency-withdraws-controversial-coronavirus-report/#19148c5d4349

[maddmaxx ★]

21 minutes ago, 12string said:

Folks are dying there at an alarming rate of 1/8 but they are also saying that the community as a whole is reaching herd antibody status. 

 

Herd antibody status, of course, once enough people get it, the herd has immunity - the ones that lived.  The US will reach that, too, with lockdowns.  With much smaller population density - and much smaller population, and a medical system that was more prepared, they had less worry about flattening the curve.

And the people touting how the lockdown is a scam because Sweden conveniently leave out their 12% vs. our 2% fatality rate.

Has anyone determined that there is a herd immunity for Covid-19 or is this just more speculation?

[12string]

31 minutes ago, Dottles said:

And now much of their population has antibodies.  It's too early to call and see how this plays out -- but if the rate is roughly the same -- we'd be foolish not to at least look at that approach.  I wonder how their economy is doing?  Yeah, yeah, I can google it.  But I'm off to escape in my insulated coronavirus video game room.

We did at least look at their approach.  And the epediamologists calculated over 2 million deaths.  That's why we went with our approach.  The US is nothing like Sweden, I'm glad the experts noticed that.

[Dottleshead ★]

5 minutes ago, 12string said:

We did at least look at their approach.  And the epediamologists calculated over 2 million deaths.  That's why we went with our approach.  The US is nothing like Sweden, I'm glad the experts noticed that.

When there are no vaccines -- it all seems a crap shoot.  The best you can do -- it seems -- is to go into insulate oneself if you can afford to do it.

[BuffJim]

53 minutes ago, Mr. Grumpy said:

I feel the same way about living in the Detroit area.  

We just had our trip to Detroit cancelled for June.

[BuffJim]

I'm ready for a gradual re-opening, the way Governor Cuomo described.  I think things like masks and social distancing don't have to go by the wayside right away. Festivals, and sporting events may have to wait a month or two extra before going back to normal.

[Razors Edge ★]

On 4/20/2020 at 7:52 PM, Razors Edge said:

A week later - almost triple the total deaths, but a flat rate of positive tests.  Never know if it is lack of testing or actual slowing or steadying of the spread???

Still growing and still adding deaths

[Dottleshead ★]

What??!  But the curve is flattening!!!  It's flattening, dammit!

[Allen ★]

5 minutes ago, Dottles said:

What??!  But the curve is flattening!!!  It's flattening, dammit!

On the increase here. Last week of those who were tested in Monroe 4% were positive. This week 8% are positive, so we are going to fully open up Friday. We are going with the money first and foremost. 

[Dottleshead ★]

I think I'd go mad living in your state.  Well, during this crisis anyway.

[Prophet Zacharia]

6 hours ago, 12string said:

The lockdowns were never intended to reduce x or y,

No, the lock-downs were explicated designed to reduce y, because if your ICU’s are full, y goes from 2% to 12%.

Allegheny County, which has done a very good job at early lock-down, currently has only 8% ICU and 7% ventilator utilization. We’ll lag behind the region on immunity, but if the reports of reinfection in Asia are accurate, that won’t be too much of an issue in Wave 2.

[Prophet Zacharia]

Oh, and I guy I know at work learned his mother died of Covid today. She was 80-something, to @MickinMD’s point. But he’s not taking it well.

[Dirtyhip]

4 hours ago, Dottles said:

What??!  But the curve is flattening!!!  It's flattening, dammit!

Yes and that curve was to prevent hospital devastation and sad triage decisions. It does not mean that the virus is no longer a worry. I am sad that so many have died, old, young, and those with co-morbitities. The whole thing sucks. I worry about my husband and I worry about my Mother.

[Prophet Zacharia]

7 hours ago, 12string said:

No one wants to make that call, but when there's 4 patients and one ventilator, who gets it?

 

That is the Italian experience. And the one @Square Wheels wrote about his hospital developing a plan for weeks ago.

[Dottleshead ★]

30 minutes ago, Dirtyhip said:

Yes and that curve was to prevent hospital devastation and sad triage decisions. It does not mean that the virus is no longer a worry. I am sad that so many have died, old, young, and those with co-morbitities. The whole thing sucks. I worry about my husband and I worry about my Mother.

You did detect my sarcasm, right?  It's damn sad what's going on out there.  I am grateful I'm getting a check right now and that I can work from home.  Real grateful.

[The_Karen_Cooper_Incident]

3 minutes ago, Dottles said:

You did detect my sarcasm, right?

I did.  But be very very careful.

[Dottleshead ★]

5 minutes ago, Couch_Incident said:

I did.  But be very very careful.

Couch, I need to buy you a soda. You got a preference these days?

[The_Karen_Cooper_Incident]

Just now, Dottles said:

You got a preference these days?

Coffee.  Black.  But, I have enough to tide me over for the next month.

 

[Dottleshead ★]

1 minute ago, Couch_Incident said:

Coffee.  Black.  But, I have enough to tide me over for the next month.

 

Hoarder.

[The_Karen_Cooper_Incident]

2 minutes ago, Dottles said:

Hoarder.

I order three pounds at a time for free shipping.  I just got my shipment.

The problem is, I can't taste it.  I haven't been able to taste anything for over a month now.

 

[Dottleshead ★]

3 minutes ago, Couch_Incident said:

I order three pounds at a time for free shipping.  I just got my shipment.

The problem is, I can't taste it.  I haven't been able to taste anything for over a month now.

 

uh oh

[Prophet Zacharia]

7 hours ago, Dirtyhip said:

Yes and that curve was to prevent hospital devastation and sad triage decisions. It does not mean that the virus is no longer a worry.

With the decision to fully reopen Georgia, and multiple other states following suit next week, I have now concluded we are fucked, with wave 2 coming early summer, not next fall. I hope I am wrong, and still draw some “hope” because my Governor’s reopening plans look reaaalllly slow in the reduction of restrictions, but if Ohio is fully reopened in two weeks, will that at all matter? 

[Square Wheels]

2 hours ago, Prophet Zacharia said:

With the decision to fully reopen Georgia, and multiple other states following suit next week, I have now concluded we are fucked, with wave 2 coming early summer, not next fall. I hope I am wrong, and still draw some “hope” because my Governor’s reopening plans look reaaalllly slow in the reduction of restrictions, but if Ohio is fully reopened in two weeks, will that at all matter? 

I don't watch the news, but I read a tiny bit.  This is very disturbing.  People are not very smart.  The only reason my states hospitals are able to handle the number of patients we are getting is because of the drastic steps we've taken.  Our numbers show that masking staff and patients both made a difference.  Boston is like a ghost town, until the weather hits the 60s, then there are lots of families out for walks, kids on bikes.  Our morgue, and I imagine everyone's, is too small, we have portable trucks with dead bodies in them.  Let's relax the restrictions.  Things are getting better.  I suspect if the Red Sox said they were going to play, Fenway would fill up today.

This will not end well.  We'll easily hit 1,000,000 global deaths this year.

[Randomguy]

9 hours ago, Couch_Incident said:

Coffee.  Black.  But, I have enough to tide me over for the next month.

 

You have to get me your address so I can send you jsharrt’s coffee that he sent me. 

[Mr. Silly]

Here's an interesting site, 

It graphs the R_t number for the states.  The R number is the rate the virus is growing.  Above 1, it is increasing, below it is decreasing.  

You'll get to see the the effects of states loosening restrictions.  Naturally, it is dependent on testing.

[maddmaxx ★]

Hmmm, Georga's rate is above the line. Doesn't look like it was ever bolow the line.   Where did this data come from?  

[BuffJim]

Great News. My brother’s best friend is coming home from the rehab center. He spent most of 2 weeks on a ventilator. The stats for those on a ventilator for over a week are pretty grim. 60 years with diabetes.  There’s gonna be a fire parade for him on his journey home today. Many prayers answered. 

[maddmaxx ★]

43 minutes ago, BuffJim said:

Great News. My brother’s best friend is coming home from the rehab center. He spent most of 2 weeks on a ventilator. The stats for those on a ventilator for over a week are pretty grim. 60 years with diabetes.  There’s gonna be a fire parade for him on his journey home today. Many prayers answered. 

[Allen ★]

1 hour ago, maddmaxx said:

Hmmm, Georga's rate is above the line. Doesn't look like it was ever bolow the line.   Where did this data come from?  

If everyone in the state gets it we will lose one mid sized city. That’s acceptable losses for our governor. 

[The_Karen_Cooper_Incident]

2 hours ago, Randomguy said:

You have to get me your address so I can send you jsharrt’s coffee that he sent me. 

No. 

[Mr. Silly]

1 hour ago, maddmaxx said:

Hmmm, Georga's rate is above the line. Doesn't look like it was ever bolow the line.   Where did this data come from?  

This site will explains where the data came from and how it is being calculated in FAR more detail than you probably want.