Gump Posted February 24, 2020 Share #1 Posted February 24, 2020 LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... ...Significant Lake Effect Snow Possible Late This Week... A mid level trough will evolve into a cutoff low Thursday night over southern Quebec, then remain in place through Saturday before slowly moving east towards the Canadian Maritimes later Sunday. A strong surface low will become vertically stacked beneath its mid level counterpart Thursday night, then gradually fill as the system occludes through the end of the week. The overall synoptic scale pattern strongly suggests the potential for a long lasting, significant lake effect snow event east of Lakes Erie and Ontario for the latter portion of the week, matching well the analog pattern of past significant westerly flow lake effect snow events. CIPS analogs also suggest a strong potential for a significant lake effect snow event east of the lakes, with the relative greatest potential east of Lake Ontario. It will be quite windy, especially early in this event Thursday through Thursday night, with significant blowing and drifting snow. This will be a long lasting event, starting Thursday morning and lasting through Saturday night. The best setup may end up being later Friday and Friday night, when the coldest air aloft, deepest moisture, and strongest synoptic scale support all come together. This may be the period of greatest snowfall rates and accumulation, flanked by periods of light to moderate snow before and after. Diurnal impacts will need to be considered given how late in the season we are. The higher sun angle and stronger daytime diurnal mixing can disrupt the band scale ageostrophic circulations, resulting in less organizational structure during the afternoon and early evening in late season events. A more dense synoptic scale overcast would help alleviate these concerns, and it appears that may be possible Friday. The long lasting nature of this event and quality of the setup suggest this has the potential to be a major event. It remains too early for specifics, but snowfall accumulations over the 3 day period from Thursday through Saturday may be measured in feet. Off Lake Erie the greatest amounts will focus across the higher terrain east of the lake, and well south of the Buffalo Metro Area. Off Lake Ontario, the greatest amounts will focus across the higher terrain of the Tug Hill region. Of the two lakes, snowfall will likely be highest east of Lake Ontario where the best setup appears to last the longest. Boundary layer flow will become northwesterly towards the end of the event later Saturday or Saturday night, spreading multiple bands and lighter accumulations to areas southeast of Lake Ontario. The lake effect snow will finally taper off and end Sunday as high pressure moves into the eastern Great Lakes. This will be quickly followed by the start of a warming trend Monday. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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