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Gump Pack Fodder

Gump

Posted
Posted 
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
...Significant Lake Effect Snow Possible Late This Week...

A mid level trough will evolve into a cutoff low Thursday night over
southern Quebec, then remain in place through Saturday before slowly
moving east towards the Canadian Maritimes later Sunday. A strong
surface low will become vertically stacked beneath its mid level
counterpart Thursday night, then gradually fill as the system
occludes through the end of the week. The overall synoptic scale
pattern strongly suggests the potential for a long lasting,
significant lake effect snow event east of Lakes Erie and Ontario
for the latter portion of the week, matching well the analog pattern
of past significant westerly flow lake effect snow events. CIPS
analogs also suggest a strong potential for a significant lake
effect snow event east of the lakes, with the relative greatest
potential east of Lake Ontario. It will be quite windy, especially
early in this event Thursday through Thursday night, with
significant blowing and drifting snow.

This will be a long lasting event, starting Thursday morning and
lasting through Saturday night. The best setup may end up being
later Friday and Friday night, when the coldest air aloft, deepest
moisture, and strongest synoptic scale support all come together.
This may be the period of greatest snowfall rates and accumulation,
flanked by periods of light to moderate snow before and after.
Diurnal impacts will need to be considered given how late in the
season we are. The higher sun angle and stronger daytime diurnal
mixing can disrupt the band scale ageostrophic circulations,
resulting in less organizational structure during the afternoon and
early evening in late season events. A more dense synoptic scale
overcast would help alleviate these concerns, and it appears that
may be possible Friday.

The long lasting nature of this event and quality of the setup
suggest this has the potential to be a major event. It remains too
early for specifics, but snowfall accumulations over the 3 day
period from Thursday through Saturday may be measured in feet. Off
Lake Erie the greatest amounts will focus across the higher terrain
east of the lake, and well south of the Buffalo Metro Area. Off Lake
Ontario, the greatest amounts will focus across the higher terrain
of the Tug Hill region. Of the two lakes, snowfall will likely be
highest east of Lake Ontario where the best setup appears to last
the longest. Boundary layer flow will become northwesterly towards the
end of the event later Saturday or Saturday night, spreading
multiple bands and lighter accumulations to areas southeast of Lake
Ontario.

The lake effect snow will finally taper off and end Sunday as high
pressure moves into the eastern Great Lakes. This will be quickly
followed by the start of a warming trend Monday.
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BuffJim KOM / QOM

BuffJim

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Kzoo said:

None of this matters without confirmation by DeathJim.

 

Zack is quoting from the same source I use. I interpret this as 4-10 inches for my area, possibly more for Airehead and Mudkipz and likely a good deal more for Zack, and especially areas to his south of him, like the Tug Hill. 

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted

Weather update 

WHAT...Long duration heavy snow possible. Total snow
  accumulations in excess of 2 feet possible. Snowfall rates may
  reach over 2 inches per hour at times. Winds could gust as high
  as 40 mph.

* WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region. The greatest snow
  amounts are expected to focus across the Tug Hill Plateau.

* WHEN...From late Wednesday night through Saturday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening
  commutes.
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MickinMD KOM / QOM

MickinMD

Posted
Posted

Lake effect snow is truly amazing. When I was in Toronto finishing my IIT graduate research, I was amazed how often Buffalo, on the south of Lake Ontario, would get lots of snow while Toronto, on the north side, would get just a dusting.

Those of us living very close to the Chesapeake Bay get an opposite effect due to the never-frozen-over Bay warming the air. Most years my Anne Arundel County, along the Bay, has 3-5 fewer school-closed snow days than counties that are no closer than several miles off the Bay.  When I was a teacher there were angry kids who came in to school saying things like, "Howard County, Baltimore City, and Baltimore County schools are all closed today. Why are we opening on time?"

I'd tell them, "Because the 32 degree-plus salt water in the Chesapeake Bay warms the air which melts the snow before it hits the ground and we're close enough to the Bay to get that LUCKY benefit."

But the kids knew I wished I had the day off, too, and just rolled their eyes.

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Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, MickinMD said:

Lake effect snow is truly amazing. When I was in Toronto finishing my IIT graduate research, I was amazed how often Buffalo, on the south of Lake Ontario, would get lots of snow while Toronto, on the north side, would get just a dusting.

Those of us living very close to the Chesapeake Bay get an opposite effect due to the never-frozen-over Bay warming the air. Most years my Anne Arundel County, along the Bay, has 3-5 fewer school-closed snow days than counties that are no closer than several miles off the Bay.  When I was a teacher there were angry kids who came in to school saying things like, "Howard County, Baltimore City, and Baltimore County schools are all closed today. Why are we opening on time?"

I'd tell them, "Because the 32 degree-plus salt water in the Chesapeake Bay warms the air which melts the snow before it hits the ground and we're close enough to the Bay to get that LUCKY benefit."

But the kids knew I wished I had the day off, too, and just rolled their eyes.

The science behind it is pretty cool. It really takes special conditions for lake effect to occur. It’s also pretty cool to be out in a good LE storm. You can almost feel the energy of it. Many times there will be localized thunder and lightning too.

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Kzoo Flahute

Kzoo

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, MickinMD said:

Lake effect snow is truly amazing. When I was in Toronto finishing my IIT graduate research, I was amazed how often Buffalo, on the south of Lake Ontario, would get lots of snow while Toronto, on the north side, would get just a dusting.

Those of us living very close to the Chesapeake Bay get an opposite effect due to the never-frozen-over Bay warming the air. Most years my Anne Arundel County, along the Bay, has 3-5 fewer school-closed snow days than counties that are no closer than several miles off the Bay.  When I was a teacher there were angry kids who came in to school saying things like, "Howard County, Baltimore City, and Baltimore County schools are all closed today. Why are we opening on time?"

I'd tell them, "Because the 32 degree-plus salt water in the Chesapeake Bay warms the air which melts the snow before it hits the ground and we're close enough to the Bay to get that LUCKY benefit."

But the kids knew I wished I had the day off, too, and just rolled their eyes.

Geography lesson.  Buffalo is on the east end of Lake Erie with the potential of westerly winds driven over 241 miles of open water - depending on ice conditions (fueling lake effect snow).  Toronto is on the north west tip of Lake Ontario with hundreds of miles of wind driven dry land to the west.

Location, location, location...

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BuffJim KOM / QOM

BuffJim

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, Zackny said:

The science behind it is pretty cool. It really takes special conditions for lake effect to occur. It’s also pretty cool to be out in a good LE storm. You can almost feel the energy of it. Many times there will be localized thunder and lightning too.

Thunder snow is awesome. Haven’t experienced any this winter. 

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Kzoo Flahute

Kzoo

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, BuffJim said:

It really takes special conditions for lake effect to occur

Not all that special that it happens dozens of times a year along all of the great lakes.  I grew up along the lake between Buffalo and Cleveland.  I live in west Michigan now.  Both in the snow belts caused by lake effect.  I tend to think of lake effect as more frustrating then special.  @shotgun gets to enjoy the southern end of Lake Michigan in a area known as Whiteout Alley.

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Guest

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Kzoo said:

Not all that special that it happens dozens of times a year along all of the great lakes.  I grew up along the lake between Buffalo and Cleveland.  I live in west Michigan now.  Both in the snow belts caused by lake effect.  I tend to think of lake effect as more frustrating then special.  @shotgun gets to enjoy the southern end of Lake Michigan in a area known as Whiteout Alley.

Like I said the science behind it is more than just wind, water and temperature. There must be specific differences in water and air temps, plus specific differences in air temps at various altitudes. But to keep it simple, the wind blows over open water and it’s cold enough = lake effect.

 

 

 

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shotgun Pack Fodder

shotgun

Posted
Posted
47 minutes ago, Kzoo said:

Not all that special that it happens dozens of times a year along all of the great lakes.  I grew up along the lake between Buffalo and Cleveland.  I live in west Michigan now.  Both in the snow belts caused by lake effect.  I tend to think of lake effect as more frustrating then special.  @shotgun gets to enjoy the southern end of Lake Michigan in a area known as Whiteout Alley.

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BuffJim KOM / QOM

BuffJim

Posted
Posted

We just got added to the Winter Storm Watch.  This is for synoptic snow rather than Lake Effect. Sometimes also known by its Military name. General Snow.

NYZ001-002-010-011-260400-
/O.EXB.KBUF.WS.A.0006.200227T0000Z-200227T1800Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo,
and Batavia
244 PM EST Tue Feb 25 2020

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8
  inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph resulting in
  significant blowing snow.

* WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, Northern Erie, and Genesee counties.

* WHEN...From Wednesday evening through early Thursday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be difficult with very poor visibility
  and snow covered roadways. The hazardous conditions could impact
  the morning commute on Thursday.

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jsharr Maillot Jaune

jsharr

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, BuffJim said:

I've been known to keep a Hurricane thread going for 2 weeks and threaten disaster on just about everybody during the evolution of the storm.

Yeah but hurrycanes are named wrong.  They do not hurry.  The wander around offshore threatening everybody, sort of like a drunk that get thrown out of  bar and waits in the parking lot screaming about all the asses he is gonna kick

Eventually he pukes on the hood of a car or two, pisses himself and wanders into the alley to sleep it off.

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, BuffJim said:

We were barely scathed. Wind picks up this afternoon and the snow winds down.  May get another squall or two, but manageable.

Zack's lack of update indicates that his internet has frozen under 12 foot drifts.

Nah. Light snow here at the office. Looks like the Hill is pretty nasty. Still predicting 3-4 feet starting later today.

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Further KOM / QOM

Further

Posted
Posted
26 minutes ago, TrentonMakes said:

I had a, uh, friend who went to SUNY at Oswego. Got to see that snow machine firsthand a few times... amazing. 

I spent some time there in the winter, they used to stretch ropes between the buildings to hang on to during periods of high winds and ice. Basically  November to March 

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