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Here we go? Untracked coronavirus appears in Northern Cali


Dottleshead

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4 minutes ago, Dottles said:

I'm not into hysteria but if an outbreak happens -- seems like company policy would simply be to work at home for awhile.  So we'll probably stock up for us and the cat.  Can't forget the cat.

Yea, I'm doing my best to accept whatever happens.  I'm going to have too anyway.

Mudkipz

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One in Sacto.  I think people should stop panicking and just practice safe behavior.  If some are very worried, then stay in your homes and avoid public gatherings.   Most cities has Amazon food delivery.  

My husband and I work in places with tons of exposure to humans.   Not gonna worry and stress about this virus.  I am more concerned with someone gunning me down at work.  The risk is higher than the virus.

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4 hours ago, Dottles said:

I'm not into hysteria but if an outbreak happens -- seems like company policy would simply be to work at home for awhile.  So we'll probably stock up for us and the cat.  Can't forget the cat.

Agway sells 50# bags of cat kibble. A fifty pound bag of cat food lasts a long time. The cats will eat it if that’s all you give them.

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5 hours ago, Dirtyhip said:

One in Sacto.  I think people should stop panicking and just practice safe behavior.  If some are very worried, then stay in your homes and avoid public gatherings.   Most cities has Amazon food delivery.  

My husband and I work in places with tons of exposure to humans.   Not gonna worry and stress about this virus.  I am more concerned with someone gunning me down at work.  The risk is higher than the virus.

The California case may indicate "contact, or surface exposure" not direct person to person transfer.

And the concept of being gunned down at work, although real in a minor sense is not a very good comparison to the spread of the virus across the world. 

Japan has closed it's public school system as the number of infections has jumped to almost 1000 in just a couple of weeks.

All it takes is a couple of cases to escape containment and it starts all over in a new location.

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7 hours ago, Dirtyhip said:

Not gonna worry and stress about this virus.

Good!  I don't worry or stress about it either.  Most folks aren't going to die from it.  Might feel like crap but not death.  Still, it's always good to have a contingency plan.  Because I have a feeling we're going to see a lot more of this wildfire disease stuff coming down the pike.

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It's not clear if this virus has a "season" like the flu.  A recent National Geographic article says, "Health officials have labeled this new [corona] virus SARS-CoV-2 and its disease COVID-19...Viruses that cause influenza or milder coronavirus colds do tend to subside in warmer months because these types of viruses have what scientists refer to as “seasonality,”...But it’s highly uncertain that SARS-CoV-2 will behave the same way...Flu season generally subsides in April and March." Source: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/02/what-happens-to-coronavirus-covid-19-in-warmer-spring-temperatures/

Notice the article says "influenza or milder coronavirus colds," which is what the numbers have been saying to me all along. My guess is it will spread fast because it's very contagious but I still think it's small potatoes compared to the flu except that panics will keep occurring and businesses and schools, etc. will be disrupted while trying, probably futilely to control it.  Meanwhile, there have been recent years when school systems failed to meet federal guidelines of 90% attendance rates because the flu hit harder than normal but no one closed the schools due to the flu.

One report notes: "5 Million Cases Worldwide, 650,000 Deaths Annually: The Seasonal Flu Virus is a “Serious Concern”, But the Wuhan Coronavirus Grabs the Headlines" Source: https://www.globalresearch.ca/flu-bigger-concern-wuhan-virus-grabs-headlines/5701932

Note that Starbucks is reopening almost all its coffee shops in China.


The U.S. CDC estimates that so far this season there have been at least 29 million flu illnesses, 280,000 hospitalizations and 16,000 deaths from flu in the USA alone. (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm).

For coronavirus, according to https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

image.png.5d33c48f36218314837a177af4581f9a.png

For both the flu and coronavirus, deaths have been most to elderly people with additional, complicating medical problems.

1% of U.S. flu cases required hospitalization and 6% of hospitalizations resulted in death. The percentages have been higher for coronavirus mainly due to lower-income nations. In China there is weak tracking of cases not requiring hospitalization as well as local governments hiding information from Beijing (as Wuhan originally did) so the serious cases appear as a higher percentage in known cases.

If you look at the cases in high-income nations, the number of deaths is fairly small. Only 8 of the 20 countries with 16 or more cases have reported any deaths from coronavirus at all.

If the coronavirus sticks around, one source says, "If this one follows suit, and if the disease continues to be as severe as it is now, “cold and flu season” could become “cold and flu and COVID-19 season."  Source: www.theatlantic.com › health › archive › 2020/02 › covid-vaccine

 

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The genie is out of the bottle. I don't think there is any stopping the spread of this now. If the mortality rate is 2%, that is going to make an impact, especially if you are among the 2%. I would guess that after the first round of exposures natural immunity would begin to build up, and probably vaccine will be developed.

These are my WAG.

And the 2 % mortality is questionable. But it's high enough to have attracted enough attention to give this version of the flu it's own name.    

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18 hours ago, Dirtyhip said:

One in Sacto.  I think people should stop panicking and just practice safe behavior.  If some are very worried, then stay in your homes and avoid public gatherings.   Most cities has Amazon food delivery.  

My husband and I work in places with tons of exposure to humans.   Not gonna worry and stress about this virus.  I am more concerned with someone gunning me down at work.  The risk is higher than the virus.

...the woman was transferred into UCD Med Center from Solano.  Those guys are kind of the best and the brightest in infectious diseases in NorCal.

They suspected Coronavirus 19 from the beginning, but the CDC dicked them around for a week, because she did not meet their criteria for who should be tested (no history of travel or contact with someone with such a history).  My hope is that they used some pretty tight protocols, given their suspicion of what she has.  Otherwise, I feel badly for the hospital staff there.  I feel badly for them anyway, because they'll probably end up was the hospital of choice for the serious cases on ventilators.

 

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2 minutes ago, shootingstar said:

For any American citizen, would a patient feeling ill, get diagnosed/tested without out of pocket expenses?  Just wondering about the health care system, how open it is to everyone who is a citizen.  

Of course there is the issue of undocumented residents.

...currently, there are extreme limitations on testing for this virus. There's no quick, cheap available test yet, and the CDC lab is the only one doing them in the US.

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Just now, shootingstar said:

For any American citizen, would a patient feeling ill, get diagnosed/tested without out of pocket expenses?  Just wondering about the health care system, how open it is to everyone who is a citizen.  

That's funny. There was a story of a guy in Miami. He was in China and left before the lockdown. After he returned to Miami, he didn't feel well and went to the hospital with his story. The medicals there went full contagious lockdown on him in case it was coronavirus. Turned out not to be, so he was discharged. He had health insurance from the marketplace but it turned out to be a scam policy as it covers little. He is on the hook for thousands in medical expenses. 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/02/26/coronavirus-makes-case-medicare-for-all/

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Facts as I understand them:

The outlier coronavirus patient went to a hospital in Solana County CA. The patient did not meet requirements for coronavirus testing and so, was not tested and was treated for flu-like symptoms. Four days later, they realized that they had a coronavirus case, that technically wasn't person-to-person. Patient was quarantined and shipped to Sacramento to a hospital better equipped for quarantine and treatment of highly infectious diseases.

328 Americans who were on the Diamond Princess Cruise ship that was quarantined in Yokohama Japan were repatriated to military bases in California. 14 of the 328 were diagnosed with coronavirus before the flight and were allowed to board anyway. One of the military bases that was used to quarantine the Americans was Travis AFB in Solana County CA.

Today, a report made by a whistleblower said that Health and Human Services (HHS) employees were sent to the military bases to meet the Americans as they arrived. They were there to assist in settling them into their living quarters. The HHS employees met the returning Americans in aircraft hangers on base and distributed wristbands and room keys. The whistleblower complaint said that none of the HHS employees were trained for infectious disease protocols, wore no protective gear, and after completing their work, returned by commercial air to their home destinations. 

If these facts are true, Americans are screwed because there could be multiple potential carriers of the virus out there. I told my wife that I think that we will see at least 20 new cases by Sunday morning.

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3 hours ago, maddmaxx said:

14% of those released as cured in Guangdong province have now retested as positive again.  Either the virus does not grant immunity after having it or no one understands what it is.

Inside source.

That's scary. But it makes me think they shouldn't have released them. I'm going with they fully don't understand it. But either way, it is not too comforting. 

I guess the good news is getting it is not a death sentence. Well, for most.

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WHAT ARE THE SYMPTOMS?

The virus can cause fever, coughing, wheezing and pneumonia. The incubation period is thought to be two weeks. But it's also a heavy flu season, and some of the symptoms are similar.

HOW DOES THE VIRUS SPREAD?

Similar to the transmission of the flu, COVID-19 spreads through droplets expelled when someone coughs or sneezes, or by direct person-to-person contacts, such as by hand and or kissing. It remains unclear how long it can survive in inanimate objects and whether it can be transmitted by touching things like handles touched by an infected person.

"Currently, it’s unclear how easily or sustainable this virus is spreading between people," according to the CDC.

HOW MANY PEOPLE ARE IMPACTED?

The number of confirmed cases worldwide has risen to close to 80,000, with the majority of those cases in China, according to the World Health Organization. More than 2,500 people have died.

About 2,000 cases have been confirmed across about 50 countries outside China, including Australia, Cambodia, Canada, Finland, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, Malaysia, Nepal, Philippines, Russia, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Sweden, the Republic of Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom and Vietnam. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is updating this list daily.

There are 60 cases in the United States.

 

https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/coronavirus-news-patients-Bay-Area-San-Francisco-15089212.php

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3 hours ago, Dottles said:

WHAT ARE THE SYMPTOMS?

The virus can cause fever, coughing, wheezing and pneumonia. The incubation period is thought to be two weeks. But it's also a heavy flu season, and some of the symptoms are similar.

HOW DOES THE VIRUS SPREAD?

Similar to the transmission of the flu, COVID-19 spreads through droplets expelled when someone coughs or sneezes, or by direct person-to-person contacts, such as by hand and or kissing. It remains unclear how long it can survive in inanimate objects and whether it can be transmitted by touching things like handles touched by an infected person.

"Currently, it’s unclear how easily or sustainable this virus is spreading between people," according to the CDC.

HOW MANY PEOPLE ARE IMPACTED?

The number of confirmed cases worldwide has risen to close to 80,000, with the majority of those cases in China, according to the World Health Organization. More than 2,500 people have died.

About 2,000 cases have been confirmed across about 50 countries outside China, including Australia, Cambodia, Canada, Finland, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, Malaysia, Nepal, Philippines, Russia, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Sweden, the Republic of Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom and Vietnam. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is updating this list daily.

There are 60 cases in the United States.

 

https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/coronavirus-news-patients-Bay-Area-San-Francisco-15089212.php

Seems to be an older article based on guesswork and suppositions.  At this time, there is remarkably little/insufficient information on the possibility of "contact" spread from objects touched or how long the virus might linger in the air we breath, the waste we excrete and the air surrounding that.  There is a lot of advice on washing hands and surfaces though for something spread by "sneezing".

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3 hours ago, maddmaxx said:

There is a lot of advice on washing hands and surfaces

ALWAYS good advice.  People need to wash their hands far more often. Don't spread flu germs, don't spread corona germs, don't spread poop germs, don't spread whatever germs. Wash you darn hands and make it better for all of us!

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46 minutes ago, donkpow said:

Bunk! We've only had indoor plumbing for around 6,000 years. You never hear about how everybody was sick before then.

Hey, the other option is to go barefoot - everywhere - and build up a good solid immunity base. 

So, you DO have options!

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1 hour ago, donkpow said:

Bunk! We've only had indoor plumbing for around 6,000 years. You never hear about how everybody was sick before then.

...when I was a boy, me dad used to make us re-use each other's Kleenex.  Then, when we got sick, he'd make fun of us as losers. 

But we were 'appy in those days. Not like these kids today, with their individual Kleenex packages.

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27 minutes ago, Page Turner said:

...when I was a boy, me dad used to make us re-use each other's Kleenex.  Then, when we got sick, he'd make fun of us as losers. 

But we were 'appy in those days. Not like these kids today, with their individual Kleenex packages.

Right, I know what you mean.  We couldn't afford "Kleenex" tissues so we used the sleeve of each other's hand me down clothes. Since the sleeve was likely to be on one of your older shirts, contamination was not an issue. Since we couldn't afford laundry detergent and had to wash our clothes in the creek behind the barn, we were sick all the time.

But we were 'appy in those days. Not like these kids today, with their creeks in the front yard.

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On 2/27/2020 at 1:13 AM, Dirtyhip said:

I think people should stop panicking and just practice safe behavior.

exactly.

Though your chances of dying from the beer disease are  higher than being shot at work.  By a bunch.  Your changes of dying from any flu are way higher than being shot at work.

The mortality rate for this one is slightly higher than other flus, but the same rules apply - it's mostly getting people that are already compromised.

And those masks won't stop you from getting the flu, but they would stop you from giving it.  So if you don't have it yet, spend your money on ice cream sammiches instead of masks

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22 minutes ago, 12string said:

The mortality rate for this one is slightly higher than other flus, but the same rules apply - it's mostly getting people that are already compromised.

 

...I know that's the common story line right now, but it's worth looking at China's experience. They are losing medical professionals (who are relatively young and not compromised), and in fact the doctor who originally tried to bring public attention to this disease and was silenced, eventually contracted it and died from it.  He died in a hospital on a ventilator. He was in his 30's.  It's too early to tell much of anything about who is and is not at risk of death, much less predicting mortality rates.

One of the problems is that a lot of the numbers are given in terms of "confirmed cases by testing", and deaths/recoveries from that group. There are doubtless a lot more cases that are mild and never get tested, and the Chinese test kits (at lest in the early stages) were giving about 50% false negatives.  AFAIK, there's still no real goo testing kit distribution in the United States. With that many unknowns, you can't estimate reliable numbers or percentages.

 

The Spanish Flu pandemic of 1917-1918 was famous for killing people in their prime years.  No one has ever exactly figured out why, but there's some speculation that the older population had some partial immunity from an earlier outbreak of a similar flu, back before those younger people in their most active and healthy years were around to catch it. At least that's what I've read.

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44 minutes ago, Page Turner said:

...I know that's the common story line right now, but it's worth looking at China's experience. They are losing medical professionals (who are relatively young and not compromised), and in fact the doctor who originally tried to bring public attention to this disease and was silenced, eventually contracted it and died from it.  He died in a hospital on a ventilator. He was in his 30's.  It's too early to tell much of anything about who is and is not at risk of death, much less predicting mortality rates.

One of the problems is that a lot of the numbers are given in terms of "confirmed cases by testing", and deaths/recoveries from that group. There are doubtless a lot more cases that are mild and never get tested, and the Chinese test kits (at lest in the early stages) were giving about 50% false negatives.  AFAIK, there's still no real goo testing kit distribution in the United States. With that many unknowns, you can't estimate reliable numbers or percentages.

 

The Spanish Flu pandemic of 1917-1918 was famous for killing people in their prime years.  No one has ever exactly figured out why, but there's some speculation that the older population had some partial immunity from an earlier outbreak of a similar flu, back before those younger people in their most active and healthy years were around to catch it. At least that's what I've read.

This.

Nobody is panicking by discussing the subject. I too dismiss it for the most part but I also recognize this can get much worse. Always good to educate oneself and at least begin thinking of contingency plans.

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17 hours ago, Old#7 said:

Facts as I understand them:

The outlier coronavirus patient went to a hospital in Solana County CA. The patient did not meet requirements for coronavirus testing and so, was not tested and was treated for flu-like symptoms. Four days later, they realized that they had a coronavirus case, that technically wasn't person-to-person. Patient was quarantined and shipped to Sacramento to a hospital better equipped for quarantine and treatment of highly infectious diseases.

328 Americans who were on the Diamond Princess Cruise ship that was quarantined in Yokohama Japan were repatriated to military bases in California. 14 of the 328 were diagnosed with coronavirus before the flight and were allowed to board anyway. One of the military bases that was used to quarantine the Americans was Travis AFB in Solana County CA.

Today, a report made by a whistleblower said that Health and Human Services (HHS) employees were sent to the military bases to meet the Americans as they arrived. They were there to assist in settling them into their living quarters. The HHS employees met the returning Americans in aircraft hangers on base and distributed wristbands and room keys. The whistleblower complaint said that none of the HHS employees were trained for infectious disease protocols, wore no protective gear, and after completing their work, returned by commercial air to their home destinations. 

If these facts are true, Americans are screwed because there could be multiple potential carriers of the virus out there. I told my wife that I think that we will see at least 20 new cases by Sunday morning.

I'm sure these reports are true. I have no doubt. It's also my opinion that it's going to become out of control here. There will be an outbreak.

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1 minute ago, Dottles said:

I need to figure out different ways to and from work. WFH seems the best option.

You have an ebike. Use it!

But yeah, I wonder how long it will be until the powers that be tell me to WFH until this settles down.  I sort of like that, but also hate that.  

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6 minutes ago, Dottles said:

It's going down. I ride public transportation. I need to figure out different ways to and from work. WFH seems the best option.

If only you knew someone with an e-bike. Or if you had the technology to work from home. I guess you’re screwed. Can I have your stuff?

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