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I am thinking Ukraine is done. Maybe even today.


Wilbur
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:(

Meanwhile, debates continue and sanctions that will have an effect in a month are being kicked about. 

In the end, a rogue super power nation can do whatever they please.  All the world fears a nuclear war.  What a way to live. 

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1 minute ago, Road Runner said:

I often think about how different the world would be if Adolf Hitler had somehow died in the early 1930's.

King Leopold of Belgium would bump up in the lists of genocidal European leaders. 

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32 minutes ago, maddmaxx said:

Kiev might be occupied today...........or just bombed out but the Ukrainians aren't done killing Russians yet.

I expect a surrender when Kyiv falls.  I may be wrong though. 

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4 minutes ago, jsharrwick said:

Would love to send in some guided weapons on that convoy.  Or just EMP to disable it.  

A couple of Javelin missiles, which the Ukraine has a crap ton, will slow that convoy down.  I wonder what type of route security the ruskies have on that convoy…

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Just now, smudge said:

Something that big and obvious should not still be in motion. Come on, Ukraine. Get 'em!!

It's not.  It hasn't moved since yesterday.  Just sitting there waiting.  And waiting...

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1 minute ago, smudge said:

Something that big and obvious should not still be in motion. Come on, Ukraine. Get 'em!!

Looks easy, right?  Ukraine now even has fighter jets.  Would be helpful to inflict as much damage as possible before it's over.  But if it's not over soon, Putin will up the ante.

But I think Wilbur is right.  And the world is accepting the foregone conclusion as not only inevitable, but the only path available.  Sacrifice Ukraine.  He's already got Belarus, Azerbaijan (that happened recently and no one noticed), a few other places Putin feels are "Russia".  He doesn't play by the rules.  Engaging him will launch nukes, he doesn't care.

The ONLY way to stop him (as long as he's alive) is to cut Russia off.   These sanctions need get stronger to stay in place until he's gone.  Private businesses have to stop dealing with Russia.  Make him a pariah.  It will cost us all somewhat, but FAR less than returning to business as usual.  Take away his ability to fund any military.

We had the chance.  After 9/11, new banking regulations were put in place to keep from funding terrorists.  With massive carve outs for Real Estate and other methods for Russia to launder money.  UK acted in a similar fashion.  Why did anyone ever think Putin would be a diplomat?

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1 minute ago, 12string said:

These sanctions need get stronger to stay in place until he's gone. 

Sanctions? Not direct US & NATO up against the Russkies?  Why don't you want WWIII?  Seems like we could take them, even if some nukes are used.  Heck, might be a nice show of our masculinity to stomp on Putin.  Geez - what's the worry? Especially since sanctions are such a passive thing? 

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1 minute ago, Razors Edge said:

Sanctions? Not direct US & NATO up against the Russkies?  Why don't you want WWIII?  Seems like we could take them, even if some nukes are used.  Heck, might be a nice show of our masculinity to stomp on Putin.  Geez - what's the worry? Especially since sanctions are such a passive thing? 

Strontium 90 in your milk.

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3 minutes ago, maddmaxx said:

Strontium 90 in your milk.

But wouldn't it be worth it???? We could swing our A-10s through that column with utter joy! We'd look so coooool.  You showed how it could be done with that Iraq photo.  Why are we holding back? Why aren't we helping? Why are Western leaders such wimps? :scratchhead:

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1 hour ago, ChrisL said:

A couple of Javelin missiles, which the Ukraine has a crap ton, will slow that convoy down.  I wonder what type of route security the ruskies have on that convoy…

I was wondering why no effort seems to have been made to destroy the roads.  Wouldn't stop them, but it might slow them down.  Also, basic warfare 101 is cut off the supply lines, such as destroy roads and rails that are used to resupply the enemy.

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Just now, Road Runner said:

I was wondering why no effort seems to have been made to destroy the roads.  Wouldn't stop them, but it might slow them down.  Also, basic warfare 101 is cut off the supply lines, such as destroy roads and rails that are used to resupply the enemy.

I have heard the Ukrainians destroyed many of the bridges leading into the city forcing the Ruskies into defended choke points AKA kill zones. 

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1 minute ago, Razors Edge said:

But wouldn't it be worth it???? We could swing our A-10s through that column with utter joy! We'd look so coooool.  You showed how it could be done with that Iraq photo.  Why are we holding back? Why aren't we helping? Why are Western leaders such wimps? :scratchhead:

Get an Arab country to go clean them out.  No NATO conflicts there. 

 

1 minute ago, Road Runner said:

I was wondering why no effort seems to have been made to destroy the roads.  Wouldn't stop them, but it might slow them down.  Also, basic warfare 101 is cut off the supply lines, such as destroy roads and rails that are used to resupply the enemy.

They did that to some bridges pretty early which is why the Russians were running out of fuel and supplies.  They are using Bailey bridges now. 

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2 minutes ago, Razors Edge said:

But wouldn't it be worth it???? We could swing our A-10s through that column with utter joy! We'd look so coooool.  You showed how it could be done with that Iraq photo.  Why are we holding back? Why aren't we helping? Why are Western leaders such wimps? :scratchhead:

Amazing how quickly we went from wanting to ignore problems anywhere else in the world, it's their problem, to we're such wimps for not turning the globe into a ball of fire.

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1 minute ago, 12string said:

Amazing how quickly we went from wanting to ignore problems anywhere else in the world, it's their problem, to we're such wimps for not turning the globe into a ball of fire.

Chickenhawks?  It's always easy to go to war with weaklings. It is always easy to suggest war when it's not going to be your problem.  It's easy to play armchair warrior. Is it WWIII if Russia takes Ukraine or is it Cold War II?  I'd rather have Cold War II than WWIII, but maybe I'm just a pussy.

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Still a few things I'm curious about.  All the pundits keep saying Putin didn't expect this resistance.  But the majority of his forces are still sitting at the border.  Russia's war chest does have limited funding, how much resistance does it take for the money to run out?  Then what?  What do the Russian soldiers REALLY think?  They've been lied to all their lives, but also been oppressed, and know it's one madman's vision that's doing it.,  And now maybe getting them killed.  Am I naive in thinking today's soldiers see war differently?

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2 minutes ago, 12string said:

What do the Russian soldiers REALLY think? 

There are some reports that at least some of them were expecting to be welcomed as liberators and are surprised and dismayed with the resistance encountered thus far. 
 

Now, I expect there are two groups of soldiers, the conscripts who’s sheer numbers will result in the eventual fall of the Ukraine, and the professional units (and saboteurs) who do the real work. I bet their expectations and morale is quite a bit different.

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2 hours ago, maddmaxx said:

Kiev might be occupied today...........or just bombed out but the Ukrainians aren't done killing Russians yet.

This!

Movement over vast open territory to a city is one thing. Block to block is a totally different environment. Molotov cocktails on tanks were made for the confines of city streets...not open fields. Likewise with sniping cover picking off and quick retreat.  It is just a matter of how command and control is retained to coordinate and support attacks. 

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48 minutes ago, Kzoo said:

It's not.  It hasn't moved since yesterday.  Just sitting there waiting.  And waiting...

From NPR

A U.S. defense official says Russian troops stalled about 18 miles north of Ukraine's capital, short on fuel and food. Also, Russian strikes have hit the main television and radio tower in Kyiv, as well as a memorial to the site where Nazis killed tens of thousands of Jews during World War II.

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44 minutes ago, 12string said:

Amazing how quickly we went from wanting to ignore problems anywhere else in the world, it's their problem, to we're such wimps for not turning the globe into a ball of fire.

Not "we".  The concept is too edgy for most.

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I thought this outcome was inevitable and while I understand the fight -- and wish it would be different -- it was always going to be this outcome.  It's a nice reminder that force still wins and the Putin isn't a good guy no matter how many shirtless images of him riding on horseback come out.

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1 hour ago, Razors Edge said:

Chickenhawks? 

Look I know the Rams won the Super Bowl but you don't have to throw salt on the wounds of my home team.  You're a bigger jerk than I thought, RE.

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17 minutes ago, MoseySusan said:

overpopulation

Always the elephant in the room that everyone ignores for some reason.

Heaven forbid if people aren't allowed to have more than two or three children.  Screw the planet and future generations!  Let 'em eat dirt.  Or soylent green.    :wacko:

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7 hours ago, donkpow said:

Putin will be looking for a way out and will be unable to find one.

This should concern everyone a LOT

2 hours ago, 12string said:

These sanctions need get stronger to stay in place until he's gone. 

Have you noticed the value of the Ruble lost about 40% of its value compered to the US dollar recently?

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This won't sit well with the Russian oligarchs, or their economy.     It appears there could be more sever sanctions soon.  

This could get considerably worse for the world sooner than latter. 

Having a way out of this mess for Putin (if he actually wants one)  is important for all.  

 

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3 minutes ago, Bikeguy said:

Having a way out of this mess for Putin (if he actually wants one)  is important for all.  

I've thought about this, too.  Pushing him into a corner with no way out means he has nothing to lose by going for the nuclear option.  

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3 minutes ago, Road Runner said:

I've thought about this, too.  Pushing him into a corner with no way out means he has nothing to lose by going for the nuclear option.  

Partly why Crimea ended up like it did

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6 minutes ago, Road Runner said:

I've thought about this, too.  Pushing him into a corner with no way out means he has nothing to lose by going for the nuclear option.  

I'll guess Putin original plan was Ukraine would just roll over and surrender in a few days.   That didn't happen... 

There are about 25 nations sending weapons to Ukraine now.  I read when some Ukraine pilots went to Poland and now they have some fighter jets.  This was not part of Putin's plan. 

This could soon be a scorched earth attach on some of the Ukraine cities, starting with Kyiv.   :(

Yeah... Putin is getting in a corner.    He won't quit...   One could hope his oligarch buddies will want to preserve the lifestyles and start a coup to get ride of Putin.  (yeah that's a long shot..)

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6 minutes ago, Bikeguy said:

Yeah... Putin is getting in a corner.    He won't quit...   One could hope his oligarch buddies will want to preserve the lifestyles and start a coup to get ride of Putin.  (yeah that's a long shot..)

It would be nice if someone in the Kremlin had some balls.  Have you noticed the pics of him meeting with his military leaders and advisors?  He is at one end of a very long table and they are at the other end.  I wondered if this might be partly for his own personal safety.   :flamethrower:

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53 minutes ago, Road Runner said:

I've thought about this, too.  Pushing him into a corner with no way out means he has nothing to lose by going for the nuclear option.  

That's the theory of the "rules of proxy war".  The nuclear powers don't push each other into a corner because it's not a rational decision.  However, along comes a bully like Putin who uses that rule to his advantage and eventually he crosses a line.  IMO the sanctions need to be carefully taylor made to cause the Russians to see a better future without him.

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1 hour ago, Road Runner said:

It would be nice if someone in the Kremlin had some balls.  Have you noticed the pics of him meeting with his military leaders and advisors?  He is at one end of a very long table and they are at the other end.  I wondered if this might be partly for his own personal safety.   :flamethrower:

I thought that when I saw the table, too. 

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